Wayne's corona virus predictions...

[Wayne 962]

Originally Posted by Tobra

It is totally overblown. The flu kills a lot more, but people are not freaking out about that. I guess because there is a sporadically effective vaccine so people can feel like they are doing something about it. The Kung Flu is just a crisis to be promoted and taken advantage of, or that is certainly how it appears.

While you are technically correct at this moment in time regarding the influenza virus, there are some important other points to consider:

Stats for influenza last year:

CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza (Table 1).

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

This results in a death rate for the flu of 0.096%

The corona virus death rate, might be in the range of 1% to 3.4% (we don't exactly know because there may be more diagnosed cases). If corona were 1%, then it would be approximately 10X more lethal than the flu. So if the same people get infected with corona as they do with the flu, then that would result in 342,000 deaths. This data is for the US only.

Those seem like pretty significant numbers. Also concerning is the fact that this virus seems to also randomly kill off younger people as well. The demographics on the flu skew older and younger, with people in the middle surviving okay. This corona virus seems to randomly strike some in the middle (seemingly more than the flu).

I have a neighbor who's brother-in-law just came back from Italy. He has been diagnosed with coronavirus. Last I checked, seven out of ten people in his trip party have it, with two currently in the hospital. One is on a ventilator, and I believe they are both on experimental ebola anti-viral drugs. So, this certainly doesn't appear like a simple flu at this time.


-Wayne

[Wayne 962]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

Wayne, obviously a Tesla hater, should prepare to be dog piled...

Totally not. Love Tesla. I think Elon has done great things. I have the utmost respect for him. In many ways, he is a role model for the "next generation" when our society is lacking many of them.

Having said that, he doesn't appear to be the world's greatest operator / CEO. In order to run a successful business of that size, with so much competition, you need to consistently perform without making large blunders. The market has forgiven him in the past, I just don't know if that will continue.

A comparison CEO would possibly be Jeff Bezos. That guy is a cracker-jack CEO who rarely makes mistakes and seems to be able to execute strategy in his sleep. I think you need to be a bit more like Jeff Bezos (or Tim Cook) to run a car company (arguably the most complicated and difficult business in the world).

Just my thoughts...

-Wayne

[wayner]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

I noodled this out the other day on my phone and then just expanded it. This seems like common sense to me. Here you go:

From March 9th:

...

...Owner occupied real estate - tap or sell for equity. So, here’s a golden opportunity. Assuming that the economy tanks (headed there right now), all of these small businesses will be suffering and in trouble. If they owners happen to own their own real estate, then they will tap their equity for funds by borrowing against the building. But, banks aren’t stupid – when there’s uncertainty in the markets (any markets), the banks pull back on lending and tend to get more conservative. So, if a business is doing poorly and wants to borrow against their building, they might have a difficult time with the loan covenants. Look for opportunities here in the space to purchase real estate from struggling owners – they will want to sell and do a lease back (we did two of these types of deals in 2019). This corona recession will be temporary – the real estate will always have value, and with constant uncertainty, the ones with cash and few cajones will be able to pick up some nice properties (with built-in tenants, although they might be shaky).

I have to have to hand it to you.

While most people are predicting doom and gloom, you are the only one I've read anywhere that is providing advice on where the opportunities are. AND, its not ambulance chasing, its helping people who the banks will be reluctant to help.

Im sure there will be some vultures out there, but almost everyone I know knows someone who runs a small business, a convenience store , a restaurant or repair shop.

It reminds me of the stories I'd here from new immigrants where one had just a little bit of money, and loaned it to another who was entrepreneurial and built a thriving business or an entire empire beach one person had money and another person had vision and the two were friends making the deal even sweeter

Thanks for sharing this with us.

[Wayne 962]

Originally Posted by mgatepi

I have been doing business in China for about 20 years now, have developed many friends in 2 different regions. My friends in Suzhou which is west of Shanghai and nearest to Wuhan in my travels, are all fine. I just Wee Chatted (texted) with a couple of them and life is returning to normal. As one said, rush hour is back. They are still required to wear masks at work, but everyone is working.
So is this hyped? You be the judge. From my point of view, an ounce of caution is worth a pound of cure. But this is not a society changing event.

In general, I tend to agree - not going to change society. Most of my post was business / economics related. Weak companies, and weakened industries - this may be the last gasp for them. Things like movie theaters and malls. I think the big issue that many don't see too clearly is that all of these businesses are just loaded with debt and any little blip or disruption may cause them to default. So, while they will all recover eventually, the debt will just push many out of business. Business / corporate debt has been extensively growing for many years now...

-Wayne

[Por_sha911]

COVID-19 concerns are very real but the public reaction is hysteria whipped up by the media. We don't have this kind of hysteria when the flu hits and it will most likely kill more folks in the USA than COVID-19. Unfortunately, the market follows the same over-reactions as the people. IMO it will take about 2 months for everything to settle down. In the meantime, do as much as you can to increase risk of exposure and go buy more bottled water

[Por_sha911]

And this doesn't include the Hong Kong flu or the Asian flu from the 60's or 70's, AIDS from the 80's or a host of other issues that were going to end civilization.

[Wayne 962]

Originally Posted by Cajundaddy

Hi Wayne!

I appreciate your thoughts but I actually think this will be like many other new viruses. It appears quickly, sweeps through the population quickly, and dies out quickly. It will be very hard on our parents and grandparents who are at greatest risk but I expect this to peak within 30 days and begin to wind down by the end of April. By summer things will probably be getting back to normal while effective treatments and vaccines will be in the final stages of trials and ready for labeling.

My prediction is that this is a serious epidemic, but not the apocalypse that many have envisioned. It will be out of the news cycle by July. Most businesses can hang on for a few tough months. Most cannot hang on for a few tough years.

I actually agree. The most pain will be economic. Indeed, most businesses can handle a slowdown for a little while, but this is not a slowdown. This is a complete stopping of all revenues for some businesses. Restaurants in particular are very vulnerable to needing this steady cash flow. This is going to be a big, big problem for businesses like these.

-Wayne

[Wayne 962]

Originally Posted by legion

Would you really want to order food for delivery if you fear getting infected from outside?

From what I've read, you don't get it from ingesting food because the stomach acids kill the germs. Indeed, you could get it from touching the box and then rubbing your eyes though. So, yes, there is that risk...

-Wayne

[Wayne 962]

Originally Posted by Deschodt

Perfect metaphor for 996 IMS issues too ;-) It's the blowups that get reported. I also agree the numbers of "unaware they even got sick" is huge and divides the death rate by 10 probably....

Agree, but we won't know until next fall. That is when they will be able to randomly test 1,000 people in the population to get an overall estimation of it's spread. Until then, one can only guess.

-Wayne

[Wayne 962]

Originally Posted by cabmando

I wanna know who the bastages are that only gave Wayne 3 stars!

That's okay. Everyone is on edge these days...

-Wayne

[Wayne 962]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

I have a neighbor who's brother-in-law just came back from Italy. He has been diagnosed with coronavirus. Last I checked, seven out of ten people in his trip party have it, with two currently in the hospital. One is on a ventilator, and I believe they are both on experimental ebola anti-viral drugs. So, this certainly doesn't appear like a simple flu at this time.

-Wayne

I'll quote myself to emphasize this. My neighbor now thinks that the media is *downplaying* the risk, having seen what happened to her friends / family. This is all of course anecdotal, but in the lack of empirical statistically relevant data, anecdotal data is still important...

-Wayne

[pmax]

Probably the same cases mentioned here ...

March 06, 2020

2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Advisory
Two new cases of confirmed COVID-19 in Los Angeles County

LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health (Public Health) is investigating two additional cases of COVID-19 in Los Angeles County; the total number of cases for the county is now 13. Of these new cases, one is an additional positive case that was part of a group of travelers who were in Northern Italy.

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

I'll quote myself to emphasize this. My neighbor now thinks that the media is *downplaying* the risk, having seen what happened to her friends / family. This is all of course anecdotal, but in the lack of empirical statistically relevant data, anecdotal data is still important...

-Wayne

According to this article, we need to implement social distancing ASAP

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

[sammyg2]

From the Los Angeles county health department website:

1. What should I do if I have symptoms and think I may have been exposed to novel coronavirus?
Most people with respiratory infections like colds, the flu, and coronavirus disease (COVID-19) will have mild illness and can get better with appropriate home care and without the need to see a provider.
People who are elderly, pregnant, or have a weak immune system, or other medical problems, are at higher risk of more serious illness or complications.
It is recommended that you monitor your symptoms closely and seek medical care early if your symptoms get worse.
If you are having difficulty breathing or keeping fluids down, go to an emergency room or call 911. Otherwise, it is better to call your doctor before going in to seek care.
You should also call a doctor if you have had close contact with a person who has COVID-19.

[Noah930]

Originally Posted by Por_sha911

And this doesn't include the Hong Kong flu or the Asian flu from the 60's or 70's, AIDS from the 80's or a host of other issues that were going to end civilization.

Corona virus won't kill us all, like the graphic states. Most people will live. But it will kill a few people you care about. If you're younger, it'll kill off a parent or grandparent. If you're older, it'll kill a couple friends/colleagues. They'll just be a percentage point or two of mortality rate, but it'll still affect you (and me) to some degree. Oh, and don't forget about the potential for permanent pulmonary damage from cavitary lesions in the lungs.

[Wayne 962]

I wrote this on another site (Nextdoor) last week or so:

Here are my suggestions, based upon not much other than common sense (also coming from what I've read and heard). This is what I am doing, and this is what I have been doing over the past several years to try to stay healthy. Call this "Wayne Dempsey Common Sense" or something like that...

- I wash my hands prior to eating. This is very basic, but it's easy to forget and not do this. My Mom used to insist upon this when we were younger, but as I've gotten older (47 years old), I've lost some of the diligence.

- I bought myself a pair of light leather work gloves, and I wear them when I'm going out into public. Not only do the gloves keep germs off of your hands, but they also subconsciously prevent you from touching your face. This is a big one and is how the flu virus is spread often (from what I hear).

- I try to avoid touching anything. If it's a door handle, I pull down my sweatshirt sleeve and use that to open the door. If I'm using a pinpad at the grocery store, I use a pen to punch in the numbers, or I use my knuckle. I don't typically stick my knuckle on my face, so it's just another thing to isolate. I read something interesting that said they found coronavirus on the bathroom faucet handle. Makes sense - you turn it on with your contaminated hands, wash them thoroughly, and then turn it off and recontaminate them again! That's why Doctors and Nurses use those foot pedal controlled sinks.

- I make it a game to avoid touching anything in public places (like a grocery store. You can actually achieve this if you try. I got some coffee drinks in Smart and Final the other day - entered the store through the automatic door, grabbed the coffee, placed it on the check out counter, stuck my credit card in the slot, took the coffee, and left. Not touching anything.

- I do not shake anyone's hand. We had an open house today and about 25 people wanted to shake my hand. I told them I was sick and that it wasn't a bad idea. I'm no longer sick (I was about two weeks ago), but telling people you might be sick makes them glad you didn't shake their hand. Howie Mandel bump-fist for me.

- This one is slightly sneaky - if you want people to stay away from you, then just start fake coughing a lot. People will avoid you like you have the plague. If you're in an unsafe area of downtown and you think you might be mugged or attacked. Just walk down the street hacking - muggers don't want to catch your germs and will immediately be turned off. That's the theory at least.

- Sorry wifey - I avoid kissing my wife, kids, etc. Don't share food or utensils. If you're really concerned about contamination, then don't eat out (restaurants or fast food, etc.) - prepare your own meals. No buffets (that's my theory about why viruses spread on cruise ships).

- I don't let people near my stuff. Car washes (no interior cleaning), house cleaners (cough cough), etc. Avoid dental appointments, etc. Only go to the doctor or clinic if it's absolutely necessary. If you need to go some place (like Kaiser), try to check in at the orthopedics counter - those patients are typically just limping and hobbling around - not coughing up a lung.

- Use hand sanitizer. Don't bite your fingernails.

- I have a stash of water and food in case of quarantine (or earthquake). Probably not 14 days worth, as my wife keeps pulling from "the stash".

- Don't hang out with people who are coughing. Someone came into my office the other day. When leaving, they proceeded to cough into their hands and then opened the door to leave. Arrrgh! I got out the isopropyl alcohol and cleaned the door knob (even though I use my sweatshirt to open the door). Don't believe people when they say, "oh, I'm not contagious". B.S!

- Watch out for pinpads, ATMs, silly "enter your zip code" pads on gas pumps. Come to think of it, gas pumps -> this is a big one that everyone touches.

- I carry hand sanitizer in my car - I suggest using it when you get *in* the car. You've been out in the stores, and who knows what you've touched. Then you touch your steering wheel and it's "game on" for the germs. Getting them before you get into "your space" in the car seems important.

- Bathrooms - 100% of the time I never touch the door handle. I just don't understand why the "pull" handle is on the inside of the bathroom 99.9% of the time. Your hands are clean you want to "push" the door open with your foot so you don't have to get out of the bathroom. Seems really dumb to me that they do it that way.

- I went to Kaiser the other day, for a non-infectious disease type of issue. I strategically tried to choose a seat in the waiting room which seemed the most undesirable. But, when I got in, they sat me in this chair to take my blood pressure - the same chair that *everyone* sat in before me. I could literally see some leftover "stuff" on the padded bar that they put down in front of me. Disaster in the making - I wrote my Dr an email letting him know that I thought the chair was basically a bio hazard germ factory.

I would hope that following these suggestions will help keep me "sick free". They've worked relatively well over the past several years, hopefully they will continue to work in the future.

-Wayne

[masraum]

Originally Posted by ckelly78z

Eagles Dirty Laundry

We got the bubble-headed-bleach-blonde who
Comes on at five
She can tell you bout the plane crash with a gleam
In her eye
Its interesting when people die-
Give us dirty laundry

Don Henley solo, but close enough.

[Cajundaddy]

Originally Posted by pmax

Probably the same cases mentioned here ...

There was a recent confirmed COVID-19 death in LACO this week. Traveling from SE Asia with a long layover in South Korea. Woman in her 60s. Who else was on her flight and where did she hang out between arrival and final hospital admittance?

[Noah930]

Originally Posted by red-beard

According to this article, we need to implement social distancing ASAP

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

That's why I suggested locking everything down in the US now, before it's everywhere. Instead of responding to it when it hits, prevent it from spreading from the get go. Learn from Italy's mistakes. Incubation period may be 5-9 days, and possibly up to 2 weeks. Don't wait until someone's been seeding it throughout their daily travels for 1-2 weeks before culling them from the general population. Quarantine everyone now, and within about 2 weeks whoever is infected should declare themselves (clinically). Crazy, impossible plan, but maybe it would actually be effective.

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by Cajundaddy

There was a recent confirmed COVID-19 death in LACO this week. Traveling from SE Asia with a long layover in South Korea. Woman in her 60s. Who else was on her flight and where did she hang out between arrival and final hospital admittance?

LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health (Public Health) has confirmed the first death from 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19). The individual (a non- resident visiting friends) was an older adult who traveled extensively over the past month, including a long layover in South Korea. Public Health is also reporting six additional positive cases, one of which we presume is our second case of community transmission.