Wayne's corona virus predictions...

[rusnak]

damn I can barely text on my phone....

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by cabmando

I don't see anyone saying this isn't real. I think it's real.. I'm just not that worried about something that I have relatively no chance of dying from.

MrsWD is getting worried. She stocked up on toilet paper, maintenance OTC drugs, and water and cancelled a trip. We can sit here for 3 weeks and never leave the compound. I'll begin curtailing some of my activity if cases are reported around here. Our concerns aren't so much that we will get COVID-19, but that people who do get it will clog the health care system so that if one of us has a car accident or farm accident or gets sick from something else and needs the Doc-In-A-Box or the ER they won't be able to treat us. She has been to the ER twice this year, so the possibility that she would need it again is real.

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

Dunno. I'm 47. The doctor who discovered this in China was 34, I believe, and now he's dead.

Yes, to my kids, I'm like "get the heck away from me". My youngest (12 yrs old) spits when he talks (often). I try to keep my six feet from that germ factory.

-Wayne

First on the young doctor. It's different being exposed to it daily IMO. He was likely working excessively long days taking care the sickest of the sick. I haven't read much about that situation but long days without much rest compromises the immune system, that is a known. A compromised immune system is one of the big reasons this virus kills, that is a known.

EDIT: It appears we're talking about two different people. I was thinking about the doctor who was taking care of patients that died in China. At 34 it seems like there has to be more to the story. The odds were incredibly in his favor for a full recovery. His odds or dying from it were about the same as winning the lottery or being struck by lightening if he was otherwise healthy.

On the kids, I feel ya. My kids are what turned me into a germophobe. Kids are gross little things!

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by wdfifteen

MrsWD is getting worried. She stocked up on toilet paper, maintenance OTC drugs, and water and cancelled a trip. We can sit here for 3 weeks and never leave the compound. I'll begin curtailing some of my activity if cases are reported around here. Our concerns aren't so much that we will get COVID-19, but that people who do get it will clog the health care system so that if one of us has a car accident or farm accident or gets sick from something else and needs the Doc-In-A-Box or the ER they won't be able to treat us. She has been to the ER twice this year, so the possibility that she would need it again is real.

It's okay to be worried, but don't let emotions drive your decisions. That's all I'm saying.

[livi]

Good thread.

In parts of northern Italy the situation in many hospitals are now likened with a warzone in the sense that they have not nearly enough doctors, nurses, intensive care resourses. They have to pick and choose which patients to treat and nurse. They are urging students from medschool as well as orthopedic surgeons and all kind of doctors to step up and help out despite not having any previous training in intensive care medicin. Handing them a brief pampflet with basic instructions.

It sounds unresonable but as far as I can judge the sources are legit.

Here in Sweden our government decided that from today all gatherings with more than 500 people are forbidden. Hence, most sport events, music, theatre, opera and perhaps even the friday islam praying will be aborted.

As a doctor I usually judge by the numbers but I have to confess I am starting be feel slightly distressed by the speed and momentum of this bug. Sure the economics will not fare well but it will eventually regain itself. Many will suffer in that way. But the situation described from the hospitals in Italy is ominous. What is plan B if the healthcare brakes down, the doctors and nurses get sick too? No ICU beds left?

I am starting to sound like MSM. I am aware of that but thats my point.

[slow&rusty]

Clearly Johnson and Johnson and Procter & Gamble are behind it! They are the only ones literally "cleaning" up

[red-beard]

Markus,

Unlike the flu, 15% of cases require hospitalization. Look at the number of hospital beds in Sweden. Multiply by 8. That is the number of cases at which point the medical community is overwhelmed. Compare that to the total population.

I was on the side of this being overblown. But we've reached an inflection point. Italy being overwhelmed shows how fast this virus moves.

[74-911]

Originally Posted by wdfifteen

...... Our concerns aren't so much that we will get COVID-19, but that people who do get it will clog the health care system so that if one of us has a car accident or farm accident or gets sick from something else and needs the Doc-In-A-Box or the ER they won't be able to treat us. She has been to the ER twice this year, so the possibility that she would need it again is real.

That should be a real concern to everyone. You just never know.
Wife (73) had emergency surgery 10 days ago. No one wants that experience but I told her that her timing was good as no issues at all in the emergency room or admittance to the hospital. Circumstances may be totally different in the next few weeks.

[Sooner or later]

There are going to be some areas that are overwhelmed. We must find those pockets and shut them down before they cause other areas of high rate. Too many areas to fight at the same time and the problem explodes.

We have seen that happen in China and now Italy to an even greater degree. I imagine Iran is in deep trouble.

[Noah930]

Originally Posted by cabmando

First on the young doctor. It's different being exposed to it daily IMO. He was likely working excessively long days taking care the sickest of the sick.

He was an ophthalmologist. He doesn't take care of sick* people.

* "sick" from the medical perspective--really ill, not doing well, needs immediate care/intervention, etc.

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by Noah930

He was an ophthalmologist. He doesn't take care of sick* people.

* "sick" from the medical perspective--really ill, not doing well, needs immediate care/intervention, etc.

Okay I had that confused with the case of the Doctor who was on the front lines who died. My bad.

[john70t]

Originally Posted by slow&rusty

Clearly Johnson and Johnson and Procter & Gamble are behind it! They are the only ones literally "cleaning" up

And 3M. (knew I shoulda bought stock)
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/11/heres-how-much-3m-could-make-from-coronavirus-n95.aspx
These will return to the market soon even if by other companies, I'd expect.Supply and demand.

A chain is only as strong as it's weakest link, though.
You can work in an office with advanced filtration, UV light fixtures and sanitizer stations everywhere, https://www.meddeviceonline.com/doc/shark-skin-inspires-antimicrobial-surfaces-0001 on every common surface, plus rigorous housekeeping procedures, and work in a 100% completely sanitized environment.
Then you go to the car garage...and use the handle which a hundred other people used that day.
Thus, despite all procedures, for the next two weeks another inert carrier is created.

There is only risk avoidance and reduction on a scale.
There is never risk nullification.

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

Where the damage will be is economic. Nothing can replace the lost revenues from restaurants being avoided, cancelled vacations, reduced travel, etc. It's not like predicting the future, this is *already* happening. 24 airlines have already gone out of business in February (mostly European regional carriers), but that is a "canary in the coal mine" indicator for the rest of the industry.

-Wayne

This is the thing that should be discussed more. More people will be affected by a downturn in the market and the economy than will likely be harmed by the virus itself.

So what's the answer to preventing a dip from becoming a full blown recession? I said in another thread that a tax cut or tax credit that puts more money in more pockets isn't going to work and I believe that. I still say there's plenty of money out there to be spent based on my call and sales volume. I don't think it's a matter of people not having money to spend, it's a matter that they aren't spending it in the places that are being hurt the most by the fear of the virus.

To me, fear is the problem. Giving someone who is afraid to go out to eat or go shopping or go on a vacation more money isn't going to help much. The only thing I can figure is it will give them more to spend when they decide to go out and spend it again.

[Wayne 962]

Originally Posted by Cajundaddy

Well, some of us think the S&P 500 is way oversold due to panic and see this as a 15% off sale on blue chip stocks. We will know for sure by June 1st if this is true.

I've been telling people that I think the DOW is likely to go to around 15,000 or lower. The 2000 and 2009 corrections were greater than that...

-Wayne

[Wayne 962]

Look to South Korea for accurate information and predictions. Here is one now:

- South Korea has tested more than 140,000 people for the new coronavirus and confirmed more than 6,000 cases. Its fatality rate is around 0.6%.

- This suggests that, as many health experts have predicted, the virus' fatality rate seems to decrease as more cases are reported.

- That's because more widespread testing leads more mild cases to be included in the count.

- The US, by contrast, has tested around 1,500 people. The country has 221 confirmed cases and 12 deaths, suggesting a death rate of 5%.

https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-coronavirus-testing-death-rate-2020-3

-Wayne

[speeder]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

I've been telling people that I think the DOW is likely to go to around 15,000 or lower. The 2000 and 2009 corrections were greater than that...

-Wayne

I agree. We will have to check back in a month or two and see who was right.

[Wayne 962]

Originally Posted by speeder

I agree. We will have to check back in a month or two and see who was right.

I'll expand. The fundamentals on the economy were starting to look weary in December. Retailers did not have a good season. Anecdotally, some of my tenants in my buildings started to give signals in January that they were not going "gangbusters." Corporate debt has been increasing at a very large pace, and nearly 14% of the companies in the S&P 500 are zombie companies (companies that have so much debt, they can barely afford the interest payments, let alone have any hope of paying back the debt principle.

Then this coronavirus thing came along...

-Wayne

[pmax]

Count on it.

[speeder]

Originally Posted by pmax

Count on it.

I need to get one of those.

[john70t]

The only 'positive' thing about this is the rest of the world is equally in the same bad situation.
(if only from a global economic perspective)

“Grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.”