Wayne's corona virus predictions...

[masraum]

Originally Posted by cabmando

I wanna know who the bastages are that only gave Wayne 3 stars!

Some wankery twat is my vote.

[Tobra]

I suspect there are a large number of asymptomatic cases, like with any other illness. It appears this stuff has people that are contagious, before and after they are showing symptoms. I am dubious about the accuracy of the test kits, my understanding is they are not close to 100% accurate. A lot of overlap on the symptoms between Kung Flu and regular flu too.

I think the cat is already out of the bag. Most of the measures being taken now, no people in the stands at basketball games, cancelling events and what not, are due to liability concerns. You have a music festival or something and people get sick, lawyers will be all over you.


Thanks for swinging by Mr Dempsey, now go back outside and play with your kids.

5 votes, 3.4 score, so a pair of 1's and a trio of 5's

[Wayne 962]

This is the doctor who is treating my neighbor’s brother in law:
https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/video/4477593-tarzana-doctors-strong-message-on-coronavirus/

I’m not making this stuff up. This is very real.

Wayne

[speeder]

Originally Posted by john70t

More public measures will probably be put in place. My understanding is that it spreads fast, but affects those already more compromised same as the flu, and has a 2% mortality rate. Most people carry around mersa and staph on their skin but have a reasonable immunity to topical exposure. Some may want to take extra precautions as usual but there is probably no avoiding the inert carriers and goods necessary for normal lifestyles. That delivery box or the goods inside could have the same potential as the public door handle depending.

Good point about the delivered goods possibly being contaminated, there is so much that is unknown at this time about the "shelf life" of the virus on surfaces, etc. Hopefully, research is being conducted on that as we type. It would answer a lot of important questions.

This thing will absolutely pass, there is zero doubt of that. The question is how much damage it will do first...could be a lot. I do not agree that it's no worse than the flu. All indications contradict that one. In sheer numbers as of 3/11/20, of course the flu has effected and killed far more people. Situations such as Covid-19 have a beginning, a middle and an end. We are in the beginning.

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

This is the doctor who is treating my neighbor’s brother in law:
https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/video/4477593-tarzana-doctors-strong-message-on-coronavirus/

I’m not making this stuff up. This is very real.

Wayne

I don't see anyone saying this isn't real. I think it's real.. I'm just not that worried about something that I have relatively no chance of dying from. I'm concerned about people like my parents but I know if they use common sense they'll be fine too. I get why people want to close schools. It's not about the kids but more about the people those kids will come in contact with.

[Zeke]

Report today from the Port of Long Beach: Very few container ships now arriving. Out of the usual 800 ILWU workers dispatched daily from the union hall and "steadies," only 200 working today.

Yeah, it's on.

[speeder]

Traffic way lighter than normal today on the 5, 710, 105, 605 and 405. I drove from Tujunga to Huntington Beach and back today, easy-peasy.

[Crowbob]

Anybody with kids (or grandkids) around cannot help but immediately conclude there is almost nothing they can do to prevent infection. Parents have to go to work. People have to buy groceries. Surely, the recommended precautions may have some effect-at least for a little while.

As far as over-reaction goes, it's nearly impossible not to over-react when the WHO has declared this a global pandemic, for example.

So does a family choose one of its members to be the sole envoy into the world while everyone else stays home? Do you decontaminate that person every time he/she comes home?

I don't think there's much you can do other than hope you are one of the lucky ones who do not experience the worst symptoms and sequelae from the virus.

[red-beard]

The NEXT big step will be shutting down air travel inside the US, to reduce further spread around the country.

[speeder]

Originally Posted by Crowbob

Anybody with kids (or grandkids) around cannot help but immediately conclude there is almost nothing they can do to prevent infection. Parents have to go to work. People have to buy groceries. Surely, the recommended precautions may have some effect-at least for a little while.

As far as over-reaction goes, it's nearly impossible not to over-react when the WHO has declared this a global pandemic, for example.

So does a family choose one of its members to be the sole envoy into the world while everyone else stays home? Do you decontaminate that person every time he/she comes home?

I don't think there's much you can do other than hope you are one of the lucky ones who do not experience the worst symptoms and sequelae from the virus.

I am more or less going about my business but staying outside of LA in a semi-rural area, (w daily trips into town), and washing hands a lot, etc. I'm medically compromised and have to take extra precautions but there is only so much you can do.

Originally Posted by red-beard

The NEXT big step will be shutting down air travel inside the US, to reduce further spread around the country.

I doubt that will happen but the steps taken so far are absolutely unprecedented. All air travel from Europe halted?? NBA season cancelled?? Wow. This ain't the common cold, don't listen to the BS artists.

[Tobra]

Originally Posted by red-beard

The NEXT big step will be shutting down air travel inside the US, to reduce further spread around the country.

FAA is already easing rules on 80% slot use that would force airlines to fly empty planes. Air travel is way, way down

[Wayne 962]

Wow, you go to a school board meeting for two hours and things change dramatically!

- Dow futures are down 1,000 points

- The NBA suspends it's season

- Travel to Europe is banned for 30 days

- Tom Hanks says he has coronavirus

All while I was sitting in the most boring meeting I've been to in ages.

By the way (BTW), I'll add another prediction / opportunity. Alcohol sales will skyrocket soon. I mean nothing makes you want to drink more than a tanking stock market and an upcoming zombie apocalypse virus pandemic.

-Wayne

[Cajundaddy]

Well, some of us think the S&P 500 is way oversold due to panic and see this as a 15% off sale on blue chip stocks. We will know for sure by June 1st if this is true.

[pmax]

Well, corona has done its job if it increases alcohol addiction given there are 90000 deaths from alcohol-related causes annually, 3rd leading cause of death.

[JavaBrewer]

We're all going to die someday. That is guaranteed. IMO if this virus is as deadly as the MSM says it will be then we are already screwed. Stock up on TP, hand sanitizer, haha, you are already a carrier if you ate out, shopped, traveled, etc in the last month or two. LOL. I am carrying on like I have for the last 57 years. I wash my hands and take personal hygiene seriously. If I get taken out because I sat next to a person who sneezed...oh well. Great to have rode the ride.

[Wayne 962]

Originally Posted by speeder

This thing will absolutely pass, there is zero doubt of that. The question is how much damage it will do first...could be a lot. I do not agree that it's no worse than the flu. All indications contradict that one. In sheer numbers as of 3/11/20, of course the flu has effected and killed far more people. Situations such as Covid-19 have a beginning, a middle and an end. We are in the beginning.

I agree. Compared to the Spanish flu outbreak of 1918, this is relatively minor. We have knowledge now on what causes it, and what we can do to prevent it. Those are pretty much the "knowns". They didn't have that knowledge back then (black plague too - think of how many people would have been saved if someone realized it was transmitted by fleas!).

Where the damage will be is economic. Nothing can replace the lost revenues from restaurants being avoided, cancelled vacations, reduced travel, etc. It's not like predicting the future, this is *already* happening. 24 airlines have already gone out of business in February (mostly European regional carriers), but that is a "canary in the coal mine" indicator for the rest of the industry.

-Wayne

[Wayne 962]

Originally Posted by cabmando

I don't see anyone saying this isn't real. I think it's real.. I'm just not that worried about something that I have relatively no chance of dying from. I'm concerned about people like my parents but I know if they use common sense they'll be fine too. I get why people want to close schools. It's not about the kids but more about the people those kids will come in contact with.

Dunno. I'm 47. The doctor who discovered this in China was 34, I believe, and now he's dead.

Yes, to my kids, I'm like "get the heck away from me". My youngest (12 yrs old) spits when he talks (often). I try to keep my six feet from that germ factory.

-Wayne

[Wayne 962]

Originally Posted by Crowbob

Anybody with kids (or grandkids) around cannot help but immediately conclude there is almost nothing they can do to prevent infection. Parents have to go to work. People have to buy groceries. Surely, the recommended precautions may have some effect-at least for a little while.

As far as over-reaction goes, it's nearly impossible not to over-react when the WHO has declared this a global pandemic, for example.

So does a family choose one of its members to be the sole envoy into the world while everyone else stays home? Do you decontaminate that person every time he/she comes home?

I don't think there's much you can do other than hope you are one of the lucky ones who do not experience the worst symptoms and sequelae from the virus.

I think it's a numbers game. If you go to church with 500 other people in close proximity, you increase your chances of getting something. Going grocery shopping at 2AM at night when there's no one else there - you lower your chances. Riding on the subway - big increase. Buffet on a cruise ship - perhaps a guarantee of catching something.

I think if one is smart, wears gloves, keeps away from people, I think you'd be fine. The trouble is, we all need to work and deal with other humans. My wife got her tires replaced today at the tire shop. The tire guy had to get into her car and drive it around, etc. to put the tires on. That's a potential exposure.

Getting your teeth cleaned is another one. Using those pinpads at the grocery store or the gas pump. I think if you wear gloves and take precautions, then that will help prevent spread.

One of my doctor friends said, "it's not like the measles". The measles is extremely contagious - it becomes airborne like an aerosol particle or even the "smell" of something when your baking it. If you're in any room with someone who has the measles for 15 minutes, it's supposedly a 100% chance that you will be exposed to it. Thankfully, this corona-virus is not like that - it's more like the flu - it needs a transmission medium like fluids. So we just have to be careful.

-Wayne

[Mahler9th]

"One of my doctor friends said, "it's not like the measles". The measles is extremely contagious - it becomes airborne like an aerosol particle or even the "smell" of something when your baking it."

Not quite sure about that yet-- I think there is still some uncertainty about transmission. See other thread.

Even JH is not yet confirming that it is not airborne. And there are apparently some studies which show presence in feces. Things are changing every day, sometimes multiple times each day.


Hopefully information related to contagiousness will become more solid very quickly.

[Mahler9th]

Osterholm thinks it IS likely airborne:

Study highlights ease of spread of COVID-19 viruses | CIDRAP

Contagiousness/viral shedding may be more like measles than like more typical flu.

We will learn more, hopefully quickly.