Wayne's corona virus predictions...

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by cabmando

I was telling my son the other week something about fear and not allowing it to paralyze him. He was afraid something was going to happen and was really upset. I told him, "You can't let fear paralyze you. You have to learn how to make fear motivate you in a positive way, to drive you rather than stop you" Maybe I'm just lucky. I've always tended to be a head down and moving forward type of person.

I've been head down move forward kind of guy too. But my son contacted me in early February about the corona virus and changed my mind about this one. He teaches at Boston University Hospital and is surrounded by health care professionals. He reads the CDC briefings daily and told me then, "This is going to be bad." He moved his entire 401k into a Money Market fund in early February, stocked up on essentials three weeks ago - all before the "media scare" started in earnest. I believe this is real because he has been 3 weeks ahead of the "media scare" since early Feb. His decisions are based on raw CDC, WHO etc reports and he's been right about everything he has predicted (stock market crash, rapid spread of the disease, we are not prepared to deal with it, etc).

[cabmandone]

Ask him how you prepare for something that can't be treated. It's a viral infection. I'm not in the medical field so I don't see how you prepare for something new that needs to be studied to find out how it spreads and what effects it has on the people who have it. I also don't know how you deal with something that needs to run its course and has no cure.

I saw a suggestion that if I have symptoms contact my healthcare provider and inquire about being tested. I can't for the life of me understand what good getting tested will do since once I know I have it, there's nothing they can do for me except let it play out. My plan of action is, act as though I have it. Keep distance from anyone older and whose immune system might not be able to fight off the virus once they have it. Minimize risk by doing the things I'd do during a normal flu season.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by cabmando

Ask him how you prepare for something that can't be treated. It's a viral infection. I'm not in the medical field so I don't see how you prepare for something new that needs to be studied to find out how it spreads and what effects it has on the people who have it.

It is spread by human contact and close proximity to an infected person. It can be carried through the air and can live on surfaces. This is known.

Originally Posted by cabmando

I also don't know how you deal with something that needs to run its course and has no cure.

There is no cure, but there is treatment. Most people who have it actually die of pneumonia which is curable if you get treatment. If you have severe lung congestion you need to be put on a ventilator and treated for pneumonia until the virus has run its course.

Originally Posted by cabmando

I saw a suggestion that if I have symptoms contact my healthcare provider and inquire about being tested. I can't for the life of me understand what good getting tested will do since once I know I have it, there's nothing they can do for me except let it play out.

You are right, testing isn't going to do much good for you. But because it is highly contagious, knowing you have it will inform you that you are a carrier and can possible pass it on to your family.

Originally Posted by cabmando

My plan of action is, act as though I have it. Keep distance from anyone older and whose immune system might not be able to fight off the virus once they have it. Minimize risk by doing the things I'd do during a normal flu season.

Pretty good plan of action if you ask me. I do that, plus keep a thermometer around in case MrsWD starts feeling sick. If she gets a fever I'll call the doc. I do not know how quickly the onset of the symptoms are. If she gets a fever on Monday, can I wait and watch until Thursday to call the doc? Or can the disease develop so rapidly that she may need a ventilator and antibiotics (for pneumonia) by Wednesday?
.

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by wdfifteen

It is spread by human contact and close proximity to an infected person. It can be carried through the air and can live on surfaces. This is known
.

That's kind of my point though, this was all learned as it spread. So how do you "prepare" for the unknown until things become known? I see a lot of talk about us being unprepared and it doesn't make sense to me. If I can prepare for the unknown I never have any accidents in life.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by cabmando

That's kind of my point though, this was all learned as it spread. So how do you "prepare" for the unknown until things become known?

This much was known in early January. The health care industry knew it was coming by early February. My son knew and took action to prepare himself, as I said earlier. He knew the poop was hitting the propeller when the CDC started canceling briefings. The government knew something was happening and for whatever reason didn't tell us.

Based on what was known we should have lined up supply lines for test kits in early February. Everyone should have been notified of the symptoms and there should have been functioning test kits available for them in early February at the latest so we could tell if it was here before people started dying from it.

Instead it was:
"Hey, this guy's really sick."
"Yeah, you know, it kinda looks like that thing they have in China."
"I think I heard something about that. Maybe it is."
"Oops. He died."
"What now?"

The administration also should have given the public real information about the outbreak and not tolerated the CDC clamming up. Most of the information the public got about the outbreak came through the media. But we have an administration that denigrates the news media and says it is all "fake news." Then the administration says little about it, with factions within the government even making fun of those who warn about the virus and the professionals knew it was a big deal.
A lot could have been done to prepare the US weeks ago based on what was known weeks ago.

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by wdfifteen

This much was known in early January. The health care industry knew it was coming by early February. My son knew and took action to prepare himself, as I said earlier. He knew the poop was hitting the propeller when the CDC started canceling briefings. The government knew something was happening and for whatever reason didn't tell us.

Based on what was known we should have lined up supply lines for test kits in early February. Everyone should have been notified of the symptoms and there should have been functioning test kits available for them in early February at the latest so we could tell if it was here before people started dying from it.

Instead it was:
"Hey, this guy's really sick."
"Yeah, you know, it kinda looks like that thing they have in China."
"I think I heard something about that. Maybe it is."
"Oops. He died."
"What now?"

The administration also should have given the public real information about the outbreak and not tolerated the CDC clamming up. Most of the information the public got about the outbreak came through the media. But we have an administration that denigrates the news media and says it is all "fake news." Then the administration says little about it, with factions within the government even making fun of those who warn about the virus and the professionals knew it was a big deal.
A lot could have been done to prepare the US weeks ago based on what was known weeks ago.

From what I've read, part of the delay is test kits was due to China not openly sharing information about the outbreak.

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by wdfifteen

Based on what was known we should have lined up supply lines for test kits in early February. Everyone should have been notified of the symptoms and there should have been functioning test kits available for them in early February at the latest so we could tell if it was here before people started dying from it.

We had centralized production of the Test kits by the CDC. unfortunately, they screwed it up. The negative control agent, used to verify the test was screwed up on most of the CDC kits. Tens or Hundreds of thousands of the test kits were flawed, delaying testing in the us.

https://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-test

2 Weeks ago, the FDA opened up private companies to make test kits. They are coming online this week and literally, millions will be available.

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/926162

There is also work to improve the test. A version is being designed to give results in a few hours, instead of 2 days.

[speeder]

Originally Posted by cabmando

Ask him how you prepare for something that can't be treated. It's a viral infection. I'm not in the medical field so I don't see how you prepare for something new that needs to be studied to find out how it spreads and what effects it has on the people who have it. I also don't know how you deal with something that needs to run its course and has no cure.

I saw a suggestion that if I have symptoms contact my healthcare provider and inquire about being tested. I can't for the life of me understand what good getting tested will do since once I know I have it, there's nothing they can do for me except let it play out. My plan of action is, act as though I have it. Keep distance from anyone older and whose immune system might not be able to fight off the virus once they have it. Minimize risk by doing the things I'd do during a normal flu season.

It sounds like you don't believe in testing for a contagious disease that kills people and you believe that "there is no treatment" for Covid-19...where the fk are you getting your news? Seriously, share the source w us.

If testing kits were widely available, everyone would know who has it and who doesn't. That would allow for protocols that could severely limit the spread of the virus. If you think that the current, "wash your hands a lot and try not to touch your face" plan is going to stop this thing, you're dreaming.

This is a bad time to have a country where a large part of the population shuns science and listens to their favorite politician instead.

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by speeder

It sounds like you don't believe in testing for a contagious disease that kills people and you believe that "there is no treatment" for Covid-19...where the fk are you getting your news? Seriously, share the source w us.

If testing kits were widely available, everyone would know who has it and who doesn't. That would allow for protocols that could severely limit the spread of the virus. If you think that the current, "wash your hands a lot and try not to touch your face" plan is going to stop this thing, you're dreaming.

This is a bad time to have a country where a large part of the population shuns science and listens to their favorite politician instead.

Denis,
There is no treatment for a virus. There is only treatment for the symptoms the virus causes. If your symptoms aren't severe enough to warrant treatment, you let the virus run its course. Typically in a case like this or the flu, the only "treatment" is preventative which means vaccines. Once you have the virus there are things you can take to lessen the severity, but it still has to run its course.
One other thing: SCIENCE shows that washing your hands, not touching your face, helps prevent the spread of a virus.

Have you shunned science or are you just being stupid today?

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by cabmando

Denis,
There is no treatment for a virus. There is only treatment for the symptoms the virus causes. If your symptoms aren't severe enough to warrant treatment, you let the virus run its course. Typically in a case like this or the flu, the only "treatment" is preventative which means vaccines.

No exactly true. You are right that the virus has to “run its course” which means be defeated by your immune system. But the virus allows other diseases (pneumonia for one) to infect you. Treatment is keeping you alive and keeping other infections at bay until the virus has, as you said, run it’s course.

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by wdfifteen

No exactly true. You are right that the virus has to “run its course” which means be defeated by your immune system. But the virus allows other diseases (pneumonia for one) to infect you. Treatment is keeping you alive and keeping other infections at bay until the virus has, as you said, run it’s course.

Right! So as I said, you're treating symptoms, not the virus itself. Believe me, I get how pneumonia works. Been there... done that... Not fun.

[speeder]

There is absolutely treatment for people who have contracted viruses. Why do you think that China built a massive new hospital for CV patients? To build a gallery and watch them all die?

I wound up in the ER twice over the winter w severe flu symptoms that threatened to turn into pneumonia. They treated me w anti-viral drugs and antibiotics, (just in case of infection), I responded immediately and my condition improved. They may have saved my life, I’ll never know.

All I’m saying is to be careful and listen to the best info available. It will not come from a politician who has a vested interest in downplaying the dangers.

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by speeder

There is absolutely treatment for people who have contracted viruses. Why do you think that China built a massive new hospital for CV patients? To build a gallery and watch them all die?

To help treat the symptoms and secondary infections that occurred.

Originally Posted by speeder

I wound up in the ER twice over the winter w severe flu symptoms that threatened to turn into pneumonia. They treated me w anti-viral drugs and antibiotics, (just in case of infection), I responded immediately and my condition improved. They may have saved my life, I’ll never know.

Most antiviral medications work best when you first notice symptoms. Tamiflu and a handful of others are out there but they're generally used to stave off secondary infections.

From the CDC:

What are the benefits of antiviral drugs?
Antiviral treatment works best when started soon after flu illness begins. When treatment is started within two days of becoming sick with flu symptoms, antiviral drugs can lessen fever and flu symptoms, and shorten the time you are sick by about one day. They also may reduce the risk of complications such as ear infections in children, respiratory complications requiring antibiotics, and hospitalization in adults. For people at high risk of serious flu complications, early treatment with an antiviral drug can mean having milder illness instead of more severe illness that might require a hospital stay. For adults hospitalized with flu illness, some studies have reported that early antiviral treatment can reduce their risk of death.

Originally Posted by speeder

All I’m saying is to be careful and listen to the best info available. It will not come from a politician who has a vested interest in downplaying the dangers.

And I'm saying watch who you call a science denier just because you interpreted what they were saying all wrong. Almost everything that I've posted about CV19 and or the flu have come from sources like the CDC and Johns Hopkins.

[McLovin]

Here’s my prediction:

Will some deadly virus come and wipe out a big part of humanity? Maybe someday. But this isn’t it.

Summary: When we look back in this, we’ll see that all this panic was way overblown. Because we will see that the deadliness of this virus is way less than is being portrayed. This is because the death rate is being so highly skewed because countless millions are getting it and recovering, but not being counted in the death rate calculation. When the dust settles, it’ll be found that this isn’t more deadly than the flu. Most of the damage caused will be self-inflicted panic driven damage.

Longer version: Ah, forget that, too much typing. But I also predict Tom Hanks will help the panic subside. When he and other high profile people (including maybe even Trump himself) are shown to have contracted it, and then just recovered just like from the flu, peoples’ fears will lessen.
Right now the media is treating this like AIDs in the 90s. Like if you “test positive” it’s a death sentence. It’s causing a lot of fear, because like the flu and similar viruses, it’s simply impossible to stop the spread. Combine that fact with the fact that many are treating this like a highly deadly disease, and panic is understandable.
All the extreme efforts now (canceling NBA season, colleges closing down etc) are to slow down the spread. Which is ok. But it isn’t a long term solution. It’s here, and it’ll always be here, but the impact won’t in the long run be much.
A vaccine will be developed. But even though widely available, many won’t even choose to get it (just like many don’t get the flu shot, despite flu causing tens of thousands of deaths per year).
A year from now (probably way less) no one will be talking about this (other than discussing the financial and political impacts it may have).
The big and most interesting story won’t be the virus itself, but human reaction to the panic, the impact that unprecedented worldwide access to the internet and social media had on spreading panic, and the social, economic and political implications of all of that.

Anyways, since we’re recording predictions for posterity, there’s mine.

[Racerbvd]

[speeder]

Originally Posted by speeder

There is absolutely treatment for people who have contracted viruses. Why do you think that China built a massive new hospital for CV patients? To build a gallery and watch them all die?

I wound up in the ER twice over the winter w severe flu symptoms that threatened to turn into pneumonia. They treated me w anti-viral drugs and antibiotics, (just in case of infection), I responded immediately and my condition improved. They may have saved my life, I’ll never know.

All I’m saying is to be careful and listen to the best info available. It will not come from a politician who has a vested interest in downplaying the dangers.

Originally Posted by cabmando

To help treat the symptoms and secondary infections that occurred.


Most antiviral medications work best when you first notice symptoms. Tamiflu and a handful of others are out there but they're generally used to stave off secondary infections.

From the CDC:

What are the benefits of antiviral drugs?
Antiviral treatment works best when started soon after flu illness begins. When treatment is started within two days of becoming sick with flu symptoms, antiviral drugs can lessen fever and flu symptoms, and shorten the time you are sick by about one day. They also may reduce the risk of complications such as ear infections in children, respiratory complications requiring antibiotics, and hospitalization in adults. For people at high risk of serious flu complications, early treatment with an antiviral drug can mean having milder illness instead of more severe illness that might require a hospital stay. For adults hospitalized with flu illness, some studies have reported that early antiviral treatment can reduce their risk of death.



And I'm saying watch who you call a science denier just because you interpreted what they were saying all wrong. Almost everything that I've posted about CV19 and or the flu have come from sources like the CDC and Johns Hopkins.

They actually treat the patient, not the virus, Nick. Maybe that is what is confusing you. There absolutely is treatment for people w Covid-19, the problem is that many are dying anyway w the best medical treatment available in the developed world in 2020.

As for calling you a "science denier," maybe you can point me to the post? I can't apologize if I don't know wtf you're talking about. Thanks.

[RWebb]

Originally Posted by cabmando

Ask him how you prepare for something that can't be treated. It's a viral infection. I'm not in the medical field so I don't see how you prepare for something new that needs to be studied to find out how it spreads and what effects it has on the people who have it. I also don't know how you deal with something that needs to run its course and has no cure.

I saw a suggestion that if I have symptoms contact my healthcare provider and inquire about being tested. I can't for the life of me understand what good getting tested will do since once I know I have it, there's nothing they can do for me except let it play out. My plan of action is, act as though I have it. Keep distance from anyone older and whose immune system might not be able to fight off the virus once they have it. Minimize risk by doing the things I'd do during a normal flu season.

1. they would isolate you from others - public health

2. they would provide supportive therapy - things like O2 ventilators, etc.

3. they would watch for secondary (bacterial) infections which have killed many of the covid-19 infected

Yes, Do the things for a normal flu season - and more as this is not like any recent flu epidemics; some are comparing it to the 1957 flu

[RWebb]

Originally Posted by red-beard

We had centralized production of the Test kits by the CDC. unfortunately, they screwed it up. The negative control agent, used to verify the test was screwed up on most of the CDC kits. Tens or Hundreds of thousands of the test kits were flawed, delaying testing in the us.

https://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-test

2 Weeks ago, the FDA opened up private companies to make test kits. They are coming online this week and literally, millions will be available.

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/926162

There is also work to improve the test. A version is being designed to give results in a few hours, instead of 2 days.

as it turns out, it was a big mistake to not use the German/WHO test kits

I haven't seen anyone analyze if the decision was good or bad at the time it was made

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by McLovin

Right now the media is treating this like AIDs in the 90s. Like if you “test positive” it’s a death sentence.

Got any examples of that? The MSM reports the number of confirmed and the numbers of deaths. It’s obvious from the numbers they report that a positive test doesn’t equal a death sentence by a long shot.

[techweenie]

I don't consume the mass media, so I have no idea what they are saying.

I suspect if they quoted experts, there would be actual panic, not just 'panic buying.'

For instance:

https://www.linkedin.com/content-guest/article/dispatch-3-dr-shlain-reporting-from-front-lines-shlain-m-d-

Various sites have had this report removed, so click and read fast. It's being purged off the InterWebs