Wayne's corona virus predictions...

[Geneman]

that shlain report is. just WOW...

[speeder]

Originally Posted by techweenie

I don't consume the mass media, so I have no idea what they are saying.

I suspect if they quoted experts, there would be actual panic, not just 'panic buying.'

For instance:

https://www.linkedin.com/content-guest/article/dispatch-3-dr-shlain-reporting-from-front-lines-shlain-m-d-

Various sites have had this report removed, so click and read fast. It's being purged off the InterWebs

That is sobering but it seems straight shooting. Thanks.

[Wayne 962]

I’m still thinking we’ll see a 15,000 Dow sometime in the future. It’s here in this post now, documented so that I can look like a fool or a genius in the future!

-Wayne

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

I’m still thinking we’ll see a 15,000 Dow sometime in the future. It’s here in this post now, documented so that I can look like a fool or a genius in the future!

-Wayne

And I'm thinking by mid summer we'll see DOW 28,000... Same thing, here in this post, genius or fool. My take is, it can go up just as fast as it went down. With the government willingness to toss cash as the problem and the FED willing to drop interests rates, My money would be on up.

[techweenie]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

I’m still thinking we’ll see a 15,000 Dow sometime in the future. It’s here in this post now, documented so that I can look like a fool or a genius in the future!

-Wayne

I'm thinking 18,000.

Even if we get things straighted out domestically, we cannot escape the effects its having on trading partners around the world.

[nota]

I think I had cv-19 on jan 27 2020

early adopter or something
no idea from where I could have caught it
I mostly stayed in miami but did a few trips to the west coast of fla
in the 2-3 weeks before I got sick
I did go to a marine swap meet and normal garage sales
no out of country but the house across the street is full of Vietnamese

symptoms bad body aches and pain worse then the flu
fever and chills very bad
bad cough lungs hurt
gut was ok no runs or throw ups but did not want to eat lost about 15 lbs
very low energy just wanted to sit or lie down

major diff from flu was NO running nose NO sore throat at all
all the above close match to reported cv-19 symptoms
minor hick-cups very often only other effect but that maybe just me

I was down for about 10 days and weak for a few weeks after the aches and fever stopped

no tests just stayed at home
wife had very minor symptoms
my two kids who live at home did NOT get sick

recently tryed to get a anti-body test to check if I had cv-19
but NO test available for that in the USA [china has one]
not the live/active virus test that they do have and use here
as I no longer have the bug after over 6 weeks time so no point in the live test
so only the anti-body test was what I wanted to check if I had cv-19

did have recent blood test last week and check up and I am in good general health

posting now as the prospect of enforced Q at a military base is over now
with standard procedure to Q at home what I basically did

[speeder]

That's the crazy thing...I had a bad flu(?) that resembled Covid-19 symptoms back in January as well and I knew a lot of other people who get similarly sick around the same time. A lot of us might have already had this bug and there is no way to know it.

I think that in the near future, the failure of lack of available tests for CV in a timely fashion will be blamed for a lot of deaths in the USA.

[speeder]

Originally Posted by techweenie

I'm thinking 18,000.

Even if we get things straighted out domestically, we cannot escape the effects its having on trading partners around the world.

The world has never been shut down the way it is right now, this is unprecedented. The only question is how long it will last. Every day is causing lasting if not permanent damage to the world economy.

Being a *glass half full* kind of guy, it's great for the environment. China is producing 40% of its usual pollution right now. The bad news is, this is the only way that the environment gets cleaned up.

[Geneman]

MAJOR unknown is if the warm weather kills it off. highly likely for an enveloped, RNA based virus.... second unknown is if it makes a comeback in the Fall like many other viral etiology pandemics , as history has taught us..

(PhD in molecular virology here.....)

[gduke2010]

Originally Posted by Geneman

MAJOR unknown is if the warm weather kills it off. highly likely for an enveloped, RNA based virus.... second unknown is if it makes a comeback in the Fall like many other viral etiology pandemics , as history has taught us..

(PhD in molecular virology here.....)

Seems as if not as many cases i9n Hawaii as one would suspect. It's major tourist destination, Could it be the warmer weather or lack of testing?

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by nota

symptoms bad body aches and pain worse then the flu
fever and chills very bad
bad cough lungs hurt
gut was ok no runs or throw ups but did not want to eat lost about 15 lbs
very low energy just wanted to sit or lie down

major diff from flu was NO running nose NO sore throat at all
all the above close match to reported cv-19 symptoms
minor hick-cups very often only other effect but that maybe just me

I was down for about 10 days and weak for a few weeks after the aches and fever stopped

Daughter has influenza B tested and confirmed. Same symptoms. Cough to the point she got sick. No nasal drainage. No sore throat.

[Captain Ahab Jr]

Originally Posted by Geneman

MAJOR unknown is if the warm weather kills it off. highly likely for an enveloped, RNA based virus.... second unknown is if it makes a comeback in the Fall like many other viral etiology pandemics , as history has taught us..

(PhD in molecular virology here.....)

So much knowledge on this board!!!

Is the warm weather the reason why Africa doesn't seem to be as infected or the fact they have more experience of nasty virus outbreaks before so are handling it better than the Western world or a combination of both of these factors?

[RWebb]

Originally Posted by Geneman

MAJOR unknown is if the warm weather kills it off. highly likely for an enveloped, RNA based virus.... second unknown is if it makes a comeback in the Fall like many other viral etiology pandemics , as history has taught us..

(PhD in molecular virology here.....)

post more about the envelope and its lipid component

[dewolf]

Originally Posted by Geneman

MAJOR unknown is if the warm weather kills it off. highly likely for an enveloped, RNA based virus.... second unknown is if it makes a comeback in the Fall like many other viral etiology pandemics , as history has taught us..

(PhD in molecular virology here.....)

Wife just asked me, "so do we have the house hot or cold to lessen the virus life span?".

[dafischer]

Originally Posted by RWebb

post more about the envelope and its lipid component

Why, so you can tell someone else that they don't know as much about it as you do?

[Wayne 962]

Originally Posted by McLovin

Summary: When we look back in this, we’ll see that all this panic was way overblown. Because we will see that the deadliness of this virus is way less than is being portrayed. This is because the death rate is being so highly skewed because countless millions are getting it and recovering, but not being counted in the death rate calculation. When the dust settles, it’ll be found that this isn’t more deadly than the flu. Most of the damage caused will be self-inflicted panic driven damage.

My neighbor's friend, who came back from that ski trip to Italy, is currently in the hospital. Last I heard from her, he was in an induced coma, and was on dialysis because of kidney failure. I think the other friend is also in the hospital, and both of them were on some type of experimental ebola anti-viral drug. Both are aged 49 and 50.

So, to simply imply, "this isn't so bad because of the death rate" - the other part of the story not widely being reported is that many people are getting very, very severely sick.

-Wayne

[Wayne 962]

Originally Posted by RWebb

as it turns out, it was a big mistake to not use the German/WHO test kits

I haven't seen anyone analyze if the decision was good or bad at the time it was made

Without offering an opinion either way, I did hear an interesting thought on this. The fact that the US hasn't been doing as much testing *may* work in our favor. If people test negative when they are positive (the test isn't all that accurate), then they may go out and infect others. If no one really knows if they or anyone around them has it, then the assumption will be that they do, instead of that they don't. Again, I'm not sure I agree with this theory, but I found it an interesting counter argument to the big push for more testing.

-Wayne

[speeder]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

My neighbor's friend, who came back from that ski trip to Italy, is currently in the hospital. Last I heard from her, he was in an induced coma, and was on dialysis because of kidney failure. I think the other friend is also in the hospital, and both of them were on some type of experimental ebola anti-viral drug. Both are aged 49 and 50.

So, to simply imply, "this isn't so bad because of the death rate" - the other part of the story not widely being reported is that many people are getting very, very severely sick.

-Wayne

That's really frightening. I hope they recover, please keep us posted if you hear.

[rcooled]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

....both of them were on some type of experimental ebola anti-viral drug.

I wonder if this had something to do with the severity of their illness?

[Mahler9th]

"My neighbor's friend, who came back from that ski trip to Italy, is currently in the hospital. Last I heard from her, he was in an induced coma, and was on dialysis because of kidney failure. I think the other friend is also in the hospital, and both of them were on some type of experimental ebola anti-viral drug. Both are aged 49 and 50.

So, to simply imply, "this isn't so bad because of the death rate" - the other part of the story not widely being reported is that many people are getting very, very severely sick."

Thanks for the update and sorry to hear this.

But folks have been reporting on the morbidity associated with this virus. That is a huge part of the driver of the global response.

I posted the following in another thread in this Forum:

"It seems to me that many folks were just making blanket comparisons to conventional flu viruses and related mortality rates-- to some extent that is to be expected from laypeople.

I think more are beginning to understand that with conventional flu viruses, some amount of the population is protected via herd immunity and/or vaccines that may match. Here we are apparently fully exposed.

Folks are beginning to understand things like early/asymptomatic and heavy viral shredding and how those characteristics affect contagiousness. And how this novel virus may be different from conventional flu viruses in this regard.

And I think one big thing is that more folks are beginning to think not just about mortality, but of morbidity-- especially morbidity that requires facility-based care (like hospital and ICU care) and HCP's.

And of course how our global healthcare systems have historically not been resourced to handle situations like this (for various reasons).

One way to think of it... it seems the Martians have finally developed a space ship that can and has penetrated our outer defenses, and is already working on our mid-level defenses which can be overwhelmed.

We will not allow that.

Global cooperation on mitigation/suppression, diagnosis, and RX (treatment regimens and tools for those requiring care beyond typical flu care) and eventually and hopefully quickly vaccine are keys, and it seems that the experts are well motivated, and additional resources are being appropriately mustered.

Before we are finished, I think more folks will better understand things like Dx sensitivity and specificity and Rx safety and efficacy as well."