Sweden Dealing with Covid the Right Way

[RWebb]

22 scientists & MDs have heavily criticised the Swedish approach

https://www.dn.se/debatt/folkhalsomyndigheten-har-misslyckats-nu-maste-politikerna-gripa-in/

use Google translate

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by RWebb

22 scientists & MDs have heavily criticised the Swedish approach

https://www.dn.se/debatt/folkhalsomyndigheten-har-misslyckats-nu-maste-politikerna-gripa-in/

use Google translate

So far it has worked for them. Hospitals have been able to handle the load. And that is what we want. They, and everyone else, missed on protecting the nursing homes.

[RWebb]

worked in some senses of the term

not in terms of death rates, or infection rates

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by RWebb

worked in some senses of the term

not in terms of death rates, or infection rates

A big part of their number of deaths are from the nursing homes that I mentioned.

If it works out as they plan they take a big hit at the start and taper off sooner. As time goes on the others will start to catch up and according to their strategy cases and deaths will end up the same with less economic harm. .

As long as they keep the hospital from overflowing I think they took the right path (outside of nursing homes).

[RWebb]

I cannot find any epidemiologists outside of the Swedish govt. who support their approach.

OTOH, I don't livi there so...

[Otter74]

I'd be interested to know how the deaths in Sweden differ in terms of who they affect in the population compared to its Scandinavian neighbors. E.g. is the difference concentrated in the old generally, in care homes specifically, or etc.

[island911]

Originally Posted by RWebb

worked in some senses of the term

not in terms of death rates, or infection rates

general population infection was the goal (herd immunity)

speaking of..
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/96-of-nearly-3-300-inmates-in-four-state-prisons-lack-symptoms-but-tested-positive-for-coronavirus

from state prisons in Arkansas, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia and found that out of the 3,277 inmates tested, 96% were asymptomatic.

[Cajundaddy]

Citizens seems to be taking their responsibility seriously. Residents point out that they are practicing social distancing, with the elderly isolated, and families mostly staying home, apart from kids in school. Citymapper statistics indicate an almost 75% drop in mobility in Stockholm. Travel over the Easter weekend dropped more than 90%; the government did not tell ski resorts to close for Easter, a popular ski holiday time, but the resorts closed anyway. Lovin told the BBC it is a “myth that Sweden has not taken serious steps.”

Sweden is approaching this differently but not drastically differently. Over 50% of workers were not required but have chosen to work from home, HS and universities are closed. Primary schools are still open. Transportation has been greatly curtailed in both countries, and people are encouraged to stay home in both countries. Bars and restaurants are still open in Sweden but patronage is light.

Making comparisons between Sweden and the US is difficult for many reasons. 10M population vs 328M, Sweden has a very collective view on dealing with crisis while us Yanks tend to be fiercely independent. Over 50% of households in Sweden are 1 person household which may be unique in the world. They self isolate as a matter of culture.

The current economic forecast for 2020 year end is that Sweden's GDP will be off 3.2% from 2019, while the US forecast GDP is expected to be off 5%. In the end the outcomes in terms of health, death rates, and economic pain may turn out to be very similar. We are right in the middle of this now so any pronouncement of winners or losers is completely speculative. We'll have to check back in 2021 to see the final score.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

^^^ so in other words, 6X as many deaths for nothing

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by Cajundaddy

Citizens seems to be taking their responsibility seriously. Residents point out that they are practicing social distancing, with the elderly isolated, and families mostly staying home, apart from kids in school. Citymapper statistics indicate an almost 75% drop in mobility in Stockholm. Travel over the Easter weekend dropped more than 90%; the government did not tell ski resorts to close for Easter, a popular ski holiday time, but the resorts closed anyway. Lovin told the BBC it is a “myth that Sweden has not taken serious steps.”

Sweden is approaching this differently but not drastically differently. Over 50% of workers were not required but have chosen to work from home, HS and universities are closed. Primary schools are still open. Transportation has been greatly curtailed in both countries, and people are encouraged to stay home in both countries. Bars and restaurants are still open in Sweden but patronage is light.

Making comparisons between Sweden and the US is difficult for many reasons. 10M population vs 328M, Sweden has a very collective view on dealing with crisis while us Yanks tend to be fiercely independent. Over 50% of households in Sweden are 1 person household which may be unique in the world. They self isolate as a matter of culture.

The current economic forecast for 2020 year end is that Sweden's GDP will be off 3.2% from 2019, while the US forecast GDP is expected to be off 5%. In the end the outcomes in terms of health, death rates, and economic pain may turn out to be very similar. We are right in the middle of this now so any pronouncement of winners or losers is completely speculative. We'll have to check back in 2021 to see the final score.

Well said

[KFC911]

Yep...In football terminology ....it's only the top of the 5th inning.

[Por_sha911]

worked in some senses of the term
not in terms of death rates, or infection rates

How do you figure?
They had no restrictions and yet their infection and death rate is the same or lower than other countries that are bankrupting private small businesses. If there is no benefit to the restrictions then what is the justification? Don't say "it would have been worse if...". That is just a wild eyed guess based on what you think. Be scientific and use the hard facts. Assumptions are proven wrong all the time. The numbers say Sweden didn't lock down and they are at the same rates as many who did.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by Por_sha911

How do you figure?
They had no restrictions and yet their infection and death rate is the same or lower than other countries that are bankrupting private small businesses. If there is no benefit to the restrictions then what is the justification? Don't say "it would have been worse if...". That is just a wild eyed guess based on what you think. Be scientific and use the hard facts. Assumptions are proven wrong all the time. The numbers say Sweden didn't lock down and they are at the same rates as many who did.

It is not that simple. Every country is different. They have had a significant slowdown, though is was voluntary vs mandated.

Cajun's post was accurate.

[McLovin]

Yes, if one believes that Sweden’s approach and the US approach is going to have the same social and economic outcome, then Sweden’s approach may have been “for nothing.”
It’s hard to imagine one could compare those metrics and find them anywhere near comparable, but ok.
It’s been previously raised in this thread, but while Sweden has of course taken voluntary social distancing measures, the level of measures and impact pale in comparison to the lockdown of the US.
The US federal budget, all spending for the year, is roughly 4.4 trillion. Out first 2 phases of Coronavirus spending has matched that, we’re working towards the 4th phase and will spend roughly 6 trillion.
So our response will have cost us roughly 1.5x our budget.
Sweden’s more measured response has required them to spend roughly $40 billion, on a budget of around $500 billion.
We dropped the nuclear social and economic bomb on ourselves because we believed the epidemiologists who said, 2 months ago, that this was a highly deadly, indiscriminate virus that was going to kill millions and millions in the world, including over 2 million in the US.
Many, including Trump (guided by Fauci, et al) are locked into that dogma. “This is the plague, that was going to kill millions if we didn’t do the lockdown like we did.” “The people of Sweden are suffering very, very badly.”
It’s puzzling why so many non politicians are also locked into that dogma, but I suppose everyone has their reasons.
In any event, as KC911 says, and I think we all can agree, we’re still very early. I believe we know much more about the true nature of the virus and it’s deadliness, and that using the most current knowledge the US response would have been very different and a fraction of the cost and social and economic destruction. Others apparently disagree.
But the answers will become far more clear as we move forward.

[McLovin]

The US has so far been able to mask the negative effects of our extreme measures, by literally mailing out trillions of dollars to people and businesses.
This is the opiate necessary to maintain social order and keep a veneer of normalcy after forcing millions into unemployment and shuttering millions of businesses.
Sweden has not had to do anything like that.
Thus, they are much further along on their road to recovery. They have not made huge swaths of their population wards of the state.
Our opiates are masking now, but even we are limited. The trillions sent out will run out, and within a month or 2. Now even many of the states are lining up with their hands out.
Given what we now know about the virus (200,000 dead so far in a world where 55 million die each year, including over 3 million from starvation), will it ultimately prove to have been worth it?
We’ll see.

[Sooner or later]

Some parts of the country could have used the Swedish model or even the South Korean model. Other parts had no chance with those methods.

[McLovin]

True.
What would you estimate those percentages at?

[Sooner or later]

Also, the US government didn't shut down a single state, Each state made their own decision.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by McLovin

True.
What would you estimate those percentages at?

Probably 20% of more at minimum. Large parts of the northeast, along with parts of Louisiana, Florida, California and Washington wouldn't have done well with the Swedish model.

It was an individual state decision to shut down and it is the individual state decision how to open up.

[McLovin]

True, but not really that relevant. 45 or so states were shut down. Who technically shut them down (state or federal govt) doesn’t really matter, the impacts are the same.
And the states were heavily influenced and guided by the architects of the shutdown, Fauci and Birx.