Federal Re-opening guidance

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by pmax

Another study pretty much confirming the fatality rate of about 0.1% ... just like the "common flu"....



Brought up by a reporter in the WH press conference.

Why are the error rates and ranges so damn high? 2.8% to 5,6% with the antibody?

That is no better than all the models that were drastically off.

[pmax]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

Why are the error rates and ranges so damn high? 2.8% to 5,6% with the antibody?

That is no better than all the models that were drastically off.

I think they have to adjust for uncertainty when projecting it to the whole population but that range is spot on the Stanford study's findings of 2.5% to 4.2% for SC county.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by pmax

I think they have to adjust for uncertainty when projecting it to the whole population but that range is spot on the Stanford study's findings of 2.5% to 4.2% for SC county.

The high end numbers don't work for New York. The Stanford study ie getting blasted for poor analysis. Stanford listed some details and the actual study. Their study couldn't differentiate between past Covid antibodies. The test they used was questionable. I can't find anything on this one.

[Sooner or later]

Keep in mind a 95% test accuracy can result in huge discrepancies. Say it tests 2.5% actual known negatives as positive and 2.5% actual positive as negative.

If we test a population that we know has no antibodies present the test will show 2.5% being positive for the antibody.

[pmax]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

Keep in mind a 95% test accuracy can result in huge discrepancies. Say it tests 2.5% actual known negatives as positive and 2.5% actual positive as negative.

If we test a population that we know has no antibodies present the test will show 2.5% being positive for the antibody.

Yeah, I skimmed through the Stanford study and that's part of the adjustment methodology, looks like they are well aware of these discrepancies hence the 2x range. Still better than the 10x 10000-100000 models !

[Sooner or later]

Your 0.1% mortality rate doesn't work for New York. They have 19,000 deaths which translates to 19,000,000 currently or past infected. The entire state population is 19,500,000.

[pmax]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

Your 0.1% mortality rate doesn't work for New York. They have 19,000 deaths which translates to 19,000,000 currently or past infected. The entire state population is 19,500,000.

The antibody testing which New York reportedly starts today will tell us but I can believe a lot more in New York has been infected.

Also the densely populated inner cities bore the brunt of the death toll so mortality is higher in NY.

[jyl]

The test used in the Stanford study . . . Chinese made, not approved in China, later banned from export, manufacturer specs 100% sensitivity (0% false negative) 98% specificity (2% false positive), Stanford tried to validate it on a too small number of samples and got 68% and 0%, I would say they really don’t know what the specs of this test are.

How do you test for something present in 1-2% of population, if your test may have a 2% false positive rate? If no-one in your sample has antibodies, your results may be that 2% do.

They advertised for volunteers on Facebook. They got a sample skewed to white women who lived near Palo Alto and were Facebook users . . . and very possibly who had some reason to think they had covid and wanted to find out.

Their raw data said 1.5% and they adjusted using race, zip, and other factors - but not age or income, apparently - to get 2.5%. Adjustments that nearly double the value are suspect.

Sorry to say, I think the Stanford study is pretty poorly done.

The problem of test accuracy is getting more attention now. With major reputable companies (Abbott etc) starting to produce antibody tests, it may get better.

[pmax]

^^^ I can't debunk or vet any of that, not being smarter than any of these twitter "experts". But other tests already mentioned here and overseas do confirm IMO the actual infection rate is multiples of the reported numbers.

Here's another study which is not even based on testing. The author uses the excess flu cases that have been reported in the country to estimate infection rate of the Wuhan flu (similar to what New York does with their death counts).

Guess what .... the same 0.1% mortality rate results.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050542v2

Using ILI surveillance to estimate state-specific case detection rates and forecast SARS-CoV-2 spread in the United States

... we estimate the syndromic case detection rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the US to be approximately 1 our of 100. This corresponds to at least 28 million presumed symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 patients across the US during the three week period from March 8 to March 28. Combining excess ILI counts with the date of onset of community transmission in the US, we also show that the early epidemic in the US was unlikely to be doubling slower than every 3.5 days.

...
Together, the surge in ILI and analysis of doubling times suggest that SARS-CoV-2 has spread rapidly throughout the US since it’s January 15th start date and is likely accompanied by a large undiagnosed population of potential COVID outpatients with presumably milder distribution of clinical symptoms than estimated from prior studies of SARS-CoV-2+ inpatients.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by pmax

^^^ I can't debunk or vet any of that, not being smarter than any of these twitter "experts". But other tests already mentioned here and overseas do confirm IMO the actual infection rate is multiples of the reported numbers.

Here's another study which is not even based on testing. The author uses the excess flu cases that have been reported in the country to estimate infection rate of the Wuhan flu (similar to what New York does with their death counts).

Guess what .... the same 0.1% mortality rate results.

That shows a 100 to 1.(modeling)

USC 28-55
Stanford 50-85
Chelsea 15

Quite a range.

[legion]

Local hospitals are laying off workers en masse. There has been no "surge".

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by legion

Local hospitals are laying off workers en masse. There has been no "surge".

Our county #s are low. If the local furniture market had brought in 100k folks from around the US and worldwide (many from China too)...who knows? Without actual data....decisions were made....GIGO modeling from the git-go . But NYC is real time data.....ask Vinman.

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by Crowbob

I wonder what the new currency will look like.

It will come in packs of rolls....and be squeezably soft.

[1979-930]

Originally Posted by legion

Local hospitals are laying off workers en masse. There has been no "surge".

The governor keeps telling us in CA our surge will hit in three more weeks. Mid May.
They were televising yesterday the conversion of the old King's Arena to a temp hospital for the "surge". Total BS.
Placer County, where I live, has 133 cases and 8 deaths for 366k residents. Its taken one week to add 5 cases. Local Heath Director said she wants no new cases for two weeks before opening back up. So frustrating.

[rfuerst911sc]

And on the flip side our state of Georgia is slowly opening the business gate valve starting this Friday . As I understand it hair salons/barber shops , fitness centers and bowling alleys can open this Friday ............. guess those are deemed essential . Then on Monday restaurants can open , I have no idea what restrictions are/will be in place but I have to think some sort of distancing and all employees wearing PPE ? It will be interesting to see what the fallout will be due to these actions . I hope this is the right decision but you can't stay shut down forever . Good luck to all .

[McLovin]

Originally Posted by 1979-930

The governor keeps telling us in CA our surge will hit in three more weeks. Mid May.
They were televising yesterday the conversion of the old King's Arena to a temp hospital for the "surge". Total BS.
Placer County, where I live, has 133 cases and 8 deaths for 366k residents. Its taken one week to add 5 cases. Local Heath Director said she wants no new cases for two weeks before opening back up. So frustrating.

I’ve watched your governor Newsome’s daily briefings, including today.
Fascinating.
They have openly said they view this as an “opportunity” to “correct” perceived injustices unrelated to the virus.
So they’ve done things like barred landlords from accessing the courthouses, indefinitely. Spent millions of taxpayer dollars to put homeless into hotel rooms (how is that going to end??) Set up “snitch lines” like DiBlasio did, so citizens can call the government and snitch on each other. Etc.
Clearly their goal is to create and maintain “emergency” crisis conditions for as long as possible to enact as much of their agenda as possible under the guise of “emergency.”
What will be interesting to see is how they accomplish that as the numbers continue to remain very low, and it becomes increasingly obvious that the “surge” they are promoting is simply not going to happen. That’s going to happen quicker than they want.

[Deschodt]

Originally Posted by legion

Local hospitals are laying off workers en masse. There has been no "surge".

The several big hospitals I work for in SFO area also show nothing significant - we've been between 14-21 people in intensive care for the past month (Covid related), 1 death I think... Hard to draw conclusions as to why but the numbers are *very* low... Fair amount of infected (though tests show only a low% of people tested showing positive, single digits) but very few in need of intensive care from the looks of it. Hard to reconcile that picture with NYC reports... Other parts of the bay are somewhat worse off, it's very localized in terms of outcomes...

In fact the lack of "normal" business is killing us...which is somewhat ironic.

[1979-930]

During Newsom’s speech yesterday there was protesting at the Capitol. I haven’t seen one news agency report it.
And the $150M spent on homeless housing has placed less than 15,000 people. Fire marshal in Sacramento won’t allow them to put people in all the travel trailers they bought and placed at CalExpo.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[island911]

Originally Posted by KC911

It will come in packs of rolls....and be squeezably soft.

Ha!

Nice.

Of course the govt money doesn't make up for the revenues lost. read: no Weimar Republic hyperinflation

Divide a trillion by 350 million people and you get about 2800$/person. I expect that is near the typical monthly mortgage or rent payment, and then there are all the commercial properties. People making under $150k in 2018 are going to get $1200. The people making over that get nothing, unless part of PPP. ...which is to be used for keeping employees and commercial rents.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

This state sees record jump in coronavirus cases days after lockdown protests