The level of ignorance in these Covid-19 threads, as evidenced by the OP, is really eye-opening.

OK, so they may have overshot the goal. Better that it turned out this way, rather than hospitals being slammed with huge numbers of infected patients. Hospitals will come back financially...sickness and disease aren't going away anytime soon.

It's not only about them. It's about EVERYONE, and about not spreading this virus to others. Try and think beyond yourself for a change...

AH, the blanket statement of everyone is ignorant... other than people who agree with you of course. :rolleyes:

Pretend that there was no cost to other business sectors. Just say oops, well Hospitals will come back financially.. Better that it turned out this way

So stamping on my rights is just fine even though the justification was deeply flawed? It's okay to destroy people's lives based on bad guesses?

Yes, it is a person's responsibility to take actions for himself or herself, not force government to restrict other's rights to keep them safe.

Tobra:
My wife has commented on this. Basically people are not going to the ER for dumb stuff because of COVID. They are staying home unless they are really sick.

In addition the homeless are not rolling thru wanting their turkey sandwich and causing trouble.

Of course my wife is 33 years Critical care, so unless I have bones sticking out, a pool of blood, or 105* temp, I am being a Pu**y :D.

Your rights end where his fear begins. From his POV, apparently.

Seriously, ^this^ is the crux of the matter. People FEAR that hospitals will be over run so they label activities and label people "non-essential" and strip them of their rights.

Let's all imagine, for a moment, if P Trump had gotten out ahead of the Governors and deemed groups of people "non-essential" and strip them of their rights. --the shlt-storm would be EPIC!

Back to the 2nd wave issue. Something puzzles me. The experts have lately been saying they don't think the warm weather this summer will have the beneficial effect of slowing down the spread of the disease. This is made evident by the fact that southern hemisphere and tropical countries have been impacted similarly to northern hemisphere countries. Wouldn't this greatly reduce the likelihood of a 2nd wave? It should just keep chugging along regardless of climate.

Right. But I suspect the lack of folks traveling and much lower than usual motor vehicle traffic probably would. Fewer folks out and about doing stupid stuff.

You might think that everyone being locked at home with family, loss of jobs/work/income and increased substance abuse due to additional stress might increase the amount of domestic abuse.

I've wondered about the effect the lockdown has had on crime. I would think that burglary would be decreasing because homes are rarely empty either during the day or at night or on weekends.

The cancellation of elective surgeries would, I think, have increased the number of ORs and beds available in hospitals.

My daughter is a PA for an orthopedic surgeon who has 3 PAs. The PAs are only working 4 days a week now instead of being swamped 5 days a week, and they've discussed dropping them down to 3 days a week, but the Dr is fighting that. It also looks like Texas is talking about allowing some elective surgeries to begin (I think only if they won't involved hospital stays or something like that).

Stick to the narrative you are being given at this exact moment to justify the thing that is being proposed right now. Don't think too hard about how it conflicts with the narrative used to justify the last thing. SmileWavy

Home burglaries are down, breaking into businesses is up, or that is my impression. Homeless are afraid of the Kung Flu, hence are staying away from ED, along with everyone else. Less traffic, less car wrecks, less everything.

I don't know about the rest of the country, but there are not very many people with this stuff in the hospitals around here.

We had three at one point. They were all over 70 and all died. We haven't had a fatality in two weeks. We haven't had a new case in 3 days. Every day, a person who had it (or two) is considered recovered. We are down to 6 active cases and 72 recovered.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

Look at the graphs in the link, even if you don't read it. The official COVID figures are usually around half of the actual excess deaths. So this is quite a bit worse than the seasonal flu, and that is with social distancing and confinement practised in most cases.

Car prowls and car theft are up around here. People don't notice for days.

Yea-like the idiot who said this today

COVID-19 patients are only taking up 2% of hospital beds and 8% of intensive care unit beds, UPMC officials said.

"We're now on the opposite side of what many predicted to be our worst week, our Pearl Harbor," Yealy said. "The very high surge that we prepared for simply hasn't happened."

Dr. Yealy is the head of emergency medicine for UPMC

But telling people you better be missing a limb to get into our ER will keep them empty.
Funny how people don't show up at your ER when you tell them you have 30 covid-19 patients.

I disagree with that. We don't know what the outcome would have been had business continued on as usual. Maybe the low number of infections in your neck of the woods is due to social distancing. Maybe business as usual would have allowed the virus to spread like wildfire, as it did in New York. Take a cavalier attitude, and that's what gets you outcomes such as Italy and Spain?


That's exactly the problem. Most people look no further than the ends of their own noses. I'm cynical; I think people are inherently selfish. People worry about themselves--maybe their extended families--but certainly not society as a whole. I'm young enough that even when I catch this it probably won't kill me. But what about my parents? What about a couple of the older people with whom I work? So without some sort of government mandate to stay at home, we have numbskulls partying on the beaches of Florida for Spring Break because nothing's gonna stop them from enjoying Spring Break. They don't understand this is not about you, it's about society as a whole. One problem with this disease is that there are so many asymptomatic carriers, which emboldens people to act in ways that spreads the disease to others who are not so fortunate. People may do what they think is right for them, but to the detriment of others. And that's not a guess--that's cold hard science.

I understand the concern about unconstitutional restriction of civil liberties. I'm willing to give the government a little bit of leeway in this unusual circumstance. But like you, I don't like how the government either gives little/no insight into what parameters or metrics it will take to reopen society (or gives mixed messages such as POTUS vs state vs local governments). I'm also frustrated by how officials seem to give a new reason every couple weeks for maintaining social distancing (or even increasing the restrictions). It's like they haven't thought this whole thing through. I mean, from an epidemiological perspective, didn't their genius advisors consider these scenarios of first wave, flattening the curve, second wave and their rough timelines within about the first week of recognizing this problem? But I guess I shouldn't be surprised, as politicians usually lack foresight in most things.

Thanks

I’d like to hear from them also.

Care to give a report on the situation at your hospital? Up to you, as detail or not as you feel like.

I hear that some the beaches by Jacksonville have opened up.

Thanks

You raise some good points. How far and long can the government go to limiting our concept of American freedom? If a week is OK (for the greater good, you know), how about a month? If a month, then what about 3? Not only can I not congregate, but I can't go for a hike, or to the beach, or to a park even if I'm alone? Where do we draw the line? Until a vaccine is discovered and available in 18-48 months?

First of all, I don't think the justification was flawed. I think it was entirely correct. I think that the incidence of disease and rates of mortality are as low as they are in some places is exactly because of these measures, and not just coincidentally so. This may be a bit of a simplistic explanation, but in a Libertarian/American world we're free to do whatever we want, as long as those activities don't harm others. So if my movements and activities may unwittingly cause others to catch this potentially fatal disease, I can understand how those movements and activities may be limited.

But I don't like how no one in a position of authority is giving us expectations as to what parameters they're looking for in order to declare a resumption of activity. We have nutjobs like our POTUS making statements like Easter because that's a catchy timeline that we all want to hear for our sanity and bank accounts, but is not scientifically realistic or reasonable. At the other extreme we have politicians and officials who offer no insight as to when that will be or what they're looking for to allow us to wake from hibernation. In the middle, we have some that are saying maybe a cautious next month. Well, what do you expect to be different next month to allow you to resume our previous lifestyles? We don't seem to have many (any?) leaders stating "there are the parameters I'm looking for, but I reserve the right to change my decision based upon how this disease plays out in the other 49 states in the country."

The predictions based on first models which we were looking at said we were going to have 4500 infected patients. This what about a month ago and is based on our roughly 30% market share in the area. With that info we went into high gear to get ready. Last week the model said it was going to be less than a 10th of that. We've spent millions buying materials and building temporary "field hospitals" on our empty shell floors at three of our hospitals. Our design was approved by the US Corp of Engineers and the State of FL. We also prepped our existing rooms to add a second patient to each and every room. We HOPE to be reimbursed by FEMA which will take years to get. We're still waiting on FEMA hurricane dollars from 3 years ago.

Opening the beaches made the news every where it seems. It was really needed actually. You can only walk, swim and surf. Keep your distance from each other. The wind is always blowing. Very low risk of infecting others.

Oklahoma is using the number currently hospitalized. They want a drop over 2 weeks. On track for May 1st loosening. Most elective surgery to restart Friday. The rest on Monday.

There is too much unknown and unknowable with this deal. Seems pretty clear we over reacted, but that is the direction you want to miss on pandemics.

Better to throw it in the dirt and go to ball 1 than make a mistake where the Bambino goes yard, and the Series is over, so to speak.

The response sort of reminds me of a woman with a funky, squamous cell carcinoma looking thing sticking off the inside of her heel. Bothered her for quite a while, remote history of injury. I see a funky looking painful growth that rings the WTF is that bell, it gets excised and put in jar for someone to slice up and look at the specimen using a microscope that costs more than a new limo for the Queen of England. If the first pathologist sees anything that makes them think maybe that looks off, they have a second person review it, to be for sure for sure, like a valley girl taking two birth control pills

You don't want a nasty scar on the inside of your heel, not if you plan on walking on that foot anyway, so you have to stay off it. I excise the growth and put her on crutches for a few weeks. In case you never used crutches, it is a bit of a hardship. Prematurely walk on it, scar will not likely be as unobtrusive, or even can open up. Biopsy results come back negative, no cancer, which I would have taken as good news, were I the patient. Lady is more than somewhat bent out of shape about having to be on crutches for nothing. She had no idea how bad that news had the potential of being. About the size of 4 or 5 quarters on the inside of her heel. It looked really funky and not good, was inflamed and painful, turned out to be benign. She settled down pretty quick when I explained that she did not get it cut off because it was cancer, she got it cut off because it looked like cancer to someone who has a good eye for how cancer looks. Sometimes good news is just good news, even if you go through some pain and inconvenience to get it.

I am troubled by how blithely The Constitution is brushed aside though

That is funny, is it happening anywhere though?

Serious question - so, how do you know you're not carrying the virus?

So what if I am? This virus is less serious than a common cold to the vast majority of those infected. A common cold can kill the certain people, but I'm not expected to isolate when I have one. We don't lock down the whole country during flu season.

This virus will be in our population from this point forward. Thinking that we can somehow control it is pure arrogance.

what county?

The question I asked was, how do you know you're not carrying the virus, and you admit you don't know. Yet you also said in your original post, and I quote;

"Quarantines are for keeping sick people in their houses, not healthy people."

But you don't know whether you're sick or healthy.

I totally get you're point, but until we know how widespread the problem is we need to slow down the infection rate. I agree, we can't keep everyone locked in their homes for ever. Hopefully though, while people are having their movement restricted, we can get a clearer idea of what's going on and how to treat it. Look at how much we've learned since this started. We still have a long way to go, but we're starting to find effective treatments, learned about incubation periods, and asymptomatic transmission, etc.
Hindsight is a precise science. It hasn't proven to be as bad as was initially thought in most cases, but what if this had been far more dangerous? The whole thing could be out of control before we knew it.

You would be wise to not conflate sick/ healthy with carrying/not carrying.

People know when they are sick. Sick is when it is called disease. Break that down dis-ease.

Aerkuld, your car could be carrying this virus.
Should you scrap it?
I mean, we don't know about your car.
We better scrap it to be certain.
Otherwise you might park near me and I may want to touch your car.

"Look at how much we've learned since this started."








Did you miss it? Look again.

“Never let a crisis go to waste”

This very quickly turned from:

A Curiosity
to Denial
to Mockery
to Concern
to Fear and Hoarding
to Panic
to Genuinely Trying to Protect Others
to Opportunism / Election Year Stunts
to Control
to Rampant Abuse of Power
to Authoritarianism

Where does it go from here? That’s up to us.

You'd be wise to think about what quarantine is for. It makes bugger all difference how someone is feeling. If they're carrying, they're carrying and contagious. In other words, infected IS sick and if you're not displaying symptoms, either you will be soon, or you'll overcome it (hopefully) and no longer be a carrier. Quarantine is intended to span that period, remove the doubt, and reduce the risk of transmission. Period.

Your other 'argument' works the same. If you have any object which may have been contaminated then you lock it away until the virus cells die. If I had a car which may have been smothered in the virus I'd shut it in the garage and not go near it. Nobody is suggesting shooting patients with the virus, or scrapping a car in your analogy. Parking it where people can touch it is EXACTLY what you're trying to argue for with not having quarantine for people.

I've been in quarantine for 6 weeks. That s 2-3 times the incubation period for the virus. I'm being told not to expect to be freed until June. In March, I was told April, in April, May, then June. The excuses keep shifting. The is nothing in the federal or any state Constitution that authorizes any governor to order people into to their houses and unilaterally close selected businesses indefinitely. Yet here we are.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/208354

Similar debates took place 100 years ago. Some cities didn’t do much NPI (that’s the epidemiologist term for social distancing), or waited to do it, or lifted it quickly, or . . . and there actually a lot of data about the outcomes. The data isn’t textbook clean of course, but the pattern is clear enough.

I read about what my city, Portland, did back then. The first case was 10/3/1918, NPI was applied, then lifted in November, everyone partied (end of WW1, ya know), things got a lot worse, NPI went back on, virus finally faded away in January.

NPI back then was less effective than now. Dance hall, churches, theaters were closed, but streetcars kept running, bars and barbers were open. There wasn’t Amazon, there might have been grocery delivery. Masks were controversial, eventually got used but quite late. And of course there was no testing, no treatment, no one knew what a virus was, being in hospital basically meant a bed and someone watching you and mopping your brow.

Even with the weak NPI, there was a decent relationship between NPI timing and severity, and death peak timing and total deaths.

I think many states have been very effective at NPI this time around. At the risk of bragging, Oregon has held deaths down to only 78 and hospitalizations to only 488 (although, that means 16% of the hospitalized die - erp). We have had some flag toting protestors, but 82% of the population support the social distancing so it will be eased and lifted based on criteria being met, not protests and pressure. However, the state hasn’t done a great job publicizing what the criteria are - they have stated them, but not gotten the word out very well. They need to do s better job communicating.

Other states don’t seem to be doing NPI that effectively. I mean beyond the obvious NY, NJ, MA, etc. Those curves aren’t looking too flat to me. Still, some of them will open up the critical life sustaining parts of the economy - like bowling alleys and beaches. I’d expect history to repeat itself.

We are flattening nicely here but will be on lockdown for weeks to come to ensure total success.

Our governor Charlie Baker has been a fantastic leader throughout this entire ordeal. Listen to his press conferences every day. I don't associate with whackjobs so I don't know if there's any rebellion brewing but I have only heard overwhelming support for him and his handling of the virus.

Absolutely! I whole heartedly agree with you. Yet with everyone supposedly in quarantine the virus is still managing to spread. The problem as I see it is, while a lot of us are being responsible there's still a considerable proportion breaking the rules. If not, this thing would be done. I suspect THAT is who we should be criticizing if anyone.

Even so, I'm not saying this doesn't suck, but look at where we are in California with regard to infection and death rate per 1M population and where most other states are. CA is something like 30th on the list. The states below CA are sparsely populated, fly-over states, as are some of the ones above. But for a state with the population density of CA to be where it is must show that this worked. If anyone really thinks this is a waste of time, do they fancy moving to Queens or Brooklyn? I'm guessing not.

I'm sure the state and federal governments don't really like this either. Very few working or spending money means their income is drastically reduced, while their expenditure has likely gone through the roof.

Honestly, I'm not sure what the answer is, and I'm glad this isn't my problem to deal with.

To be fully transparent, this really isn't affecting me much at all which does affect my opinion. I've been working from home since before the county order. We have enough work to keep us busy for a long time. That does make a big difference and I sincerely sympathize with those with businesses who are less fortunate.

Here's to you gentlemen! Let's hope we can get back to a new normal soon.

A voice of reason in the forest of paranoia. Thank you.

Some love the new power they have granted themselves. And we citizens are not holding government accountable for infringing on our rights.

oye.

Just go ahead and ignore all of the vectors and imagine that "broken rules" are to blame. :rolleyes:

Sheesh, did you not see the story about the woman who put herself in complete lock down, never even went to to the grocery store. Week 3 she got CV from the food delivery. --no 'rules broken.'

That makes sense. In previous flu pandemics, the reason for the waves was probably greatly due to the fact that 1, the flu thrives in a cold dry environment and 2 while there has always been global travel, it has never been as cheap and accessible as it is these days.

So, if CV19 doesn't care if it's cold and dry or hot and wet, then it shouldn't surge in particular times or climates. Although, with global travel what it is in these times (when travel isn't locked down) that shouldn't matter much since it's almost always cold and dry somewhere, and folks are probably always going to/from those spots to other spots.