The "Second Wave"
 

Now the experts are predicting a "second wave" to keep us locked in our houses. We should trust them after the "first wave" turned out to nowhere near as bad as predicted. I'm sure the models will be right this time. Never mind that the original justification for the lockdown, "flattening the curve", has been achieved.

there is no way the first wave was anemic because we all stayed isolated (for the most part)?

i truly appreciate some of the States throwing opened the gates. it is a nice experiment to see what happens. i hope NOTHING.

my wife is a nurse, and so we are surrounded by them in our circle of friends. i appreciate the people staying home to keep this thing from sprinting away.

We were told that the ONLY way to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed was to isolate. Instead, most hospitals in the country are grossly underwhelmed and are laying off staff. Hospitals are setting records for empty beds right now.

Yeah. Too bad we didn’t have more dead people.

so it worked? i dont understand what your are getting at.

(not trying to be argumentative - trying to understand your viewpoint)

Evidence of social distancing working would have been hospitals being at capacity with coronavirus patients. Instead, hospitals are empty. The predictions were off by an order of magnitude. They predicted the Black Death and we got a seasonal flu.

Of course - stoke the fear! Stoke the fear! We have to make this last until November or Soros won’t pay us!

Didn't know you had degrees in virology and epidemiology, legion. Do go on.

It will be interesting to see what comes of Georgia's experiment. I'm glad it's being done in a state so far away. I-75 goes right through Atlanta. It will be interesting to see what happens in towns along the highway a month from now.

That would be evidence of it NOT working.

In short, I still think the answer is yes, trust the experts and their fears.

I think the hospital under-use is a complicated issue. Hospitals are being running a less than capacity for a variety of reasons. Elective (non-emergent) procedures have been stopped. Realistically the only people in there are people who got admitted through the emergency room (because things like heart attacks and appendicitis and CHF and diverticulitis still occur, even amongst a quarantined populace).

As a result, hospital staff are being laid off/furloughed/hours cut because there is less demand from the loss of elective procedures and because of the lack of income from those paying customers.

The reason why some hospitals are not being overwhelmed with Covid-19 patients is because of this lockdown and social distancing we're practicing. I think if you go to some hospitals in New York or New Orleans or Boston, you might have a different story. Mrs. Noah used to work at MGH in Boston, and they have 120 ICU beds filled with Covid-19 patients, as well as another 120 admitted to non-ICU beds. Or at least that was how it was last week.

But the numbers are down only because of we've sheltered in place. If we leave our homes and start moving around again, I would expect that the numbers would start to rise once again. Because we don't really have a cure or treatment for this virus.

Some will argue that won't a large portion of the population get this and be immune? I'm not so sure this is the case. Some will get this and either recover or be minimally symptomatic (or totally asymptomatic). But we don't know enough about this virus to know if an individual cannot be reinfected with this disease. Or if they were OK the first time around, is there a guarantee that they'll be OK with future reinfection?

This isn't just the seasonal flu. In addition to the pulmonary/pneumonia part of the disease, there seems to be a group of victims that have some sort of severe systemic inflammatory response like a cytokine storm that rapidly leads to multiorgan failure and death. People are getting DVTs from this to the point that some hospitals (I've heard this going on in Europe) are not only giving routine low-level daily thrombolytic prophylaxis (some sort of heparin shot), but actual treatment-level prophylactic dosing of anticoagulants to prevent DVT/PE scenario (continuous heparin drip).

I'm not saying we can keep this societal lockdown going on indefinitely or for another 12-18 months. That's not financially realistic. But we have to be careful about being too cavalier about re-opening society.

Since widespread Covid19 testing seems to be a pipe dream in the U.S., I propose instead that we give everyone in the U.S. a quick IQ test and let the stupidest people decide what we do next. They can spread the policies on social media and message boards, plus have one major network at their disposal.

How does that work for you, legion? :)

This is the problem with the Internet. It used to the "end is near" guys, the crazies were seen on the street corner and ignored. Today the Internet gives them a voice. And not just among themselves where confirmation bias rules the day and it's all tribal confirmation and affirmation, but everyone is now exposed to the lunatic fringe, you can't get away from it. Combine that with political tribalism/cultism and it is a very real brick in the foundation of our developing Idiocracy.

pffft. you and your elitist medical degrees. :rolleyes: it's my constitutional right to go bowling!

Here is what happened this morning: A haircut.

I have been getting my hair cut by the same lady for 30 years. She is Korean, married an Air Force guy and found her way to Patuxent River. I hired her oldest daughter as an intern 15 years ago (every successful young lady now) and her youngest is an Air Force Academy graduate soon to be a Major.

S also owns the shop, having bought is about 20 years ago.

S texted me and all her other loyal clients Monday that guidance had been issued for Barber Shops in Maryland and that I could get my hair cut.

Perfect! It had been almost two months and I was beginning to look like Bea Arthur.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1587577397.jpg

So, here is how it worked:

- Only two appointments an hour.
- One client in the shop at any one time, the next person waited in their car.
- Masks and rubber gloves for all
- Area was cleaned between appointments - I watched her...she is very diligent
- All implements cleaned - she has multiple
- All clients agree to be entered in a spreadsheet. Is S contracts CV-19 we will be notified.
- All clients agree to notify S if they get CV-19

There was nothing cavalier at all. Everyone was very respectful of the process and I felt very comfortable since I know S. I also wore pants and a long sleeved Polo.

S is going to bring back another barber soon as she works through the Maryland guidance and she feel comfortable.

This part of Maryland has been CV-19 lite since the beginning so it is of course easier to get started: But that is the whole point...I didn't take the subway to S's.

Remarkably restrained response from Noah.

Those of you who have not been personally affected by this should stfu. Those of us that have lost family and friends, or who live in affected urban areas know its no joke.

The vast majority of what hospitals do is non crisis care. That was turned off by the need to keep those folks safe from exposure. Those caregivers know that they could be called back to work on a virus ward if needed.

If we could trust people to exercise sound judgement we could ease into a reopening-but you can't trust people to behave voluntarily. The scenes at the beaches and parks during the early days proved that.

And its not a matter of "personal" choice, because those that don't exercise appropriate caution exponentially increase the risk for those of us that do.

Lost someone in my extended fam to the cytokine storm, and it is no joke. Started as flu like symptoms, and very rapidly progressed into liver failure and almost complete kidney failure. Sadly, while he responded to dialysis, while sedated he a some sort of a cerebral vascular event, and couldn't be awakened. 58, reasonably fit, volunteer first responder.

Seems like a reasonable and well thought out process....

I respect Noah but also the other, equally credentialed folks who say that the lock down had no affect on CV-19.

I wish there was sufficient definition in the models to make a claim either way. There isn't.

Yep. I'm getting tired of all these infectious disease specialists and medical people w all their fancy degrees thinking that they are smarter than everyone else. :)

Who are the equally credentialed people saying that enforced social distancing in cities had no effect, (assume that's what you meant), on an extremely contagious virus? :confused:

That would defy anything I've read in the last 3 months...who are they? Haven't heard of this.

As for your hair stylist, the whole thing sounds reasonable to me. The numbers are very low in a lot of places and the shut down of normal travel and recreation activities make the risk of transmission *not scary* where you live, though it surely exists. Los Angeles has really low numbers by population but I sure would not want to wind up in an ER waiting room right now.

We have 7 cases in my county. None of them are in any hospital. Yet according to the experts above, I'm to stay locked in my house indefinitely because of that. There is zero evidence for the claims that led to the lockdown. The actual death rate experienced is an order of magnitude lower than what was claimed. This whole thing has been grossly unconstitutional and I think some elected officials should be made to pay. Quarantines are for keeping sick people in their houses, not healthy people. It's like locking up law-abiding citizens because officials fear a crime wave.

So, Congress?

Trust the experts and their fears?

How can we trust when the experts don’t have any idea what this virus is, where it came from, where it’s been, where it’s going, who it effects, how it affects them, how to treat it, how to test for it, who has it, who had it or how many people have died from it?

The fear is a different story. However, the fact that the pols are pushing it makes me very skeptical. I keep looking at who is benefitting from this ‘crisis’ and if it fits any kind of pattern.

In addition, nobody questions the tragedy and horror that comes with succumbing to this horrible disease. The question is what do we do about it. The experts and their fears are telling us to destroy the country. That cannot happen.

Not to mention the excuses for stripping rights from citizens are being constantly revised. First we had to flatten the curve, but the curve is so flat that judging any benefit is impossible. Then we were told that the peak is yet to come, despite evidence that the peak was weeks ago. Now we are being told that there is a second wave coming. I'm sure there will be a new excuse next week.

Yes, may be good to listen to the docs on the board on this.

I also don't think it takes a shutdown to empty out hospitals and doctors offices. Everyone I know is deferring elective procedures, shutdown or not. Or go to the dentist?

Personally, I do NOT currently want to get this virus, neither do I want my family and friends (old AND young) to get it. And yes, I will put my money where my mouth is, if I lose out financially because of the shelter in place, so be it. I'd rather have half my net worth than half a lung.

We may not be getting a vaccine soon, but if you get this 6 months from now, the virus will be much better understood and treatments will be significantly better.

G

Edit: I am glad we have the shelter in place. I would not want to go to work right now. My spouse quit BTW in an essential business after my evaluation of their safety protocol showed it was too risky. Sure enough, several people at the company contracted the virus. Dodged a bullet there.

I was curious, so I took the stats from the worldometer site the other day for the US and the states. The numbers presented are mostly raw numbers and can be difficult to compare.

In the US, there have been ~800k positivi cases and ~42k deaths.

That works out to a 5.4% of cases resulting in death. ~.2% of the population of the US has been confirmed positive. Of the folks that have been tested in the US ~20% have been positive. And ~1.2% of the US pop has been tested.

US 5.4% death, 20% test positive
NY 7.5% death, 40% test positive
NJ 4.9% death, 49% test positive
CA 3.6% death, 12% test positive
TX 2.5% death, 10% test positive

Highest death rate, Michigan at 7.7%, lowest is SD at 2%.

Just now, I checked the world stats.
World, 7% death
Spain, 10.4% death, 19.5% test positive
Italy, 13.4% death, 12.4% test positive
France, 13.2% death, 34.1% test positive
Germany, 3.4% death, 8.6% test positive
UK, 13.6% death, 23.8% test positive
Belgium, 14.9% death, 24.4% test positive
India, 3.2% death, 4.4% test positive
Netherlands, 11.6% death, 20.% test positive
Russia, .9% death, 2.6% test positive
Sweden, 12.1% death, 16.9% test positive

Estimates are the between 40% - 80% of the people who get this virus are asymptomatic. In other words, for most people, it is a virus that shows no symptoms and they just get over it without ever knowing. For most people, it is less severe than a cold. If you are over 50 or have respiratory issues, there your chances of experiencing more severe symptoms go up with your age and/or severity of your respiratory issues. Something like 98% of the people who get this virus recover with no lingering issues.

Deaths in the UK from the 1918 flu.

https://moneymorning.com/wp-content/...irus-chart.png

Hospitals are empty because selective surgeries were cancelled.

We were told that they all had to be cancelled so that hospitals would not be overwhelmed. Locally, we had 3 people in the hospital with severe coronavirus at the peak--spread between 2 hospitals. Business could have continued as usual and this would have had zero impact.

AH.

Here I thought speeder was promoting that everyone listen to speeder.

Thanks.

Here is a nice easy to understand article based on scientific research on lockdowns and their effectiveness, or lack of, in fighting the spread of pandemics.

https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2020/04/62572/

What you are missing is that the infectious disease specialists and medical people are all trying to figure out this NEW virus as well.

EVERYONE is trying to assess the threat level of this pandemic.

You don't need to be Nicola Tesla, or a meteorologist to know if it's acceptable to go on golf course on a cloudy day. Similarly you don't have to be a infectious disease specialists to assess the numbers coming out on this virus propagation.

We all get that you want to demean people here as being too stupid to comment. Got a mirror?

Hmmm.....I may be wrong, but I believe medical research has made much progress since 1918. Is there a more recent example you could use? Maybe something since the discovery of penicillin?

If they do work, they are working too well. Hospitals are going broke because they don't have enough sick people.

The WHOLE PREMISE of lock-downs was to "flatten the curve" in order to "Save the hospitals" from being overwhelmed.

What about being underwhelmed?

I will note this; Even before the lock-down, people here - near ground-zero for CV in the US-- people took drastic action on their own, at an individual level to avoid viral transmission.

Where I work, the amount of hand sanitizer quadrupled, and Lysol wipes were on every other desk and in every office. I watched Microsoft traffic all but disappear. Restaurants usually packed over the lunch hour had maybe 1/3 occupancy during the same time. Again, this was all BEFORE any official shut down.

Exactly, people are free to take action based on their personal risk level, risk preference, and personal circumstances. Most people will do what is right for them.

There is substantially more to it, cancelling elective surgeries would not empty the ER.

Why, is penicillin an effect treatment for the current virus?

We canceled several elective medical and dental procedures in my family late February weeks before any shelter in place. The county and state shelter in place orders have nothing to do with people not wanting to go to the hospital. Neighbors had an injured kid and had to go to the urgent clinic. It was empty. Nobody keeps you from going there, it is an essential operation, but people are going to stay home if they at all can.

G