The city's total death count from all deaths is going to go from 4, 000 a month to about 11,000 (or higher).

Hospitalization numbers are pretty wormy, but somewhere around 10 to 15% of known/positive test cases end up hospitalized. That is the biggest problem.

The Chinese government are corrupt sociopaths. The are barren of any ethical or moral codes for sure and I do have rage toward them.

But It is hard to take when I hear some of the things written here by keyboard warriors and watch Covid updates from the one "in charge" that are ramblings on about his "feelings" about this scourge.

Watch out, because I think this beast will rear it's ugly head in everyone's hometown.

NY is flattening the curve due to social distancing. I have no hair son going to the barber shop is no problem for me. But I have to trim my wife's hair today and that is making me stressed.

Good Luck to you all.

A large part of the NYC problem is cultural and socioeconomic. Before the quarantine went into effect here I told my son to watch specific neighborhoods and ethnic groups as the virus will be much worse there.

I predicted that the Caribbean, Hasidic Jews, Hispanic and Asian population would be hit hard and it has come to pass. These groups have an historic disregard for any authority telling them what to do, so social distancing was a very bitter pill to swallow and it shows in the stats. The other problem is with the poorer neighborhoods. A large percentage of the people living there are under nourished, generally unhealthy and ignorant to the biologic cause and effect of exposure. Not to mention not wanting to believe what the authorities have to say.

There is a Covid map by zip code and it backs up my theory. But, the same holds for the entire country.

A large part of the NYC problem is cultural and socioeconomic. Before the quarantine went into effect here I told my son to watch specific neighborhoods and ethnic groups as the virus will be much worse there.

I predicted that the Caribbean, Hasidic Jews, Hispanic and Asian population would be hit hard and it has come to pass. These groups have an historic disregard for any authority telling them what to do, so social distancing was a very bitter pill to swallow and it shows in the stats. The other problem is with the poorer neighborhoods. A large percentage of the people living there are under nourished, generally unhealthy and ignorant to the biologic cause and effect of exposure. Not to mention not wanting to believe what the authorities have to say.

There is a Covid map by zip code and it backs up my theory in NYC. But, the same holds for the entire country.

It is odd that this has not followed in other large cities with the same problems. Chicago? Philly?
Or at least not in the same numbers anywhere near like NYC is having.

NYC is one of the major international hubs for the eastern seaboard. So is BWI and Atlanta.

Any correlation as to the number of COVID cases being near a major airport from Europe?

I have really wondered why my wife's hospital is so slammed. We are 40 miles out of Baltimore in the burbs... but near BWI??

I have no clue as to why California is not bitten. Kind of like the life in the universe theory. Given all the planets, galaxy should be teeming with life, right? So why not? Well, we are either at the tail end of things or we are at the very beginning. CA may have already been zapped or it is yet to arrive.

Time will tell.

THIS ^ so disturbing.

There are studies coming out that suggest that many more people have been exposed to this than originally thought. If so, many people may already have full or partial immunity.

As a counterpoint there are also some studies suggesting that something like 30% of those infected and recovered do not produce antibodies sufficient to ward off a recurrence.

In other words we don’t really know, but I’m betting the first point is probably more true. There are probably a lot more people who have caught this and been asymptomatic than we think. Only antibody testing will confirm that and it’s still probably months away from deployment and having statistically relevant sample sizes.

More disturbing is people just seem to grin and bear it with nary a peep.

That’s how liberty dies.

Actually its more to do with those populations generally live in close quarters and don't believe in personal space not the disregard for authority. Also not under nourished, its poor food choices which contribute to obesity, and other underlying health issues which seems to greatly amplify the effects of this virus.

We know there are a lot of unknown cases. The current "trials" are all over the map and are using unapproved tests with unknown accuracy.

Stanford said 50-85
USC says 28-55
Chelsea says 15
Swedish trial said 999 before it got pulled for inaccuracy.

As Victor Davis Hansen has said, there is no way that we can think California was not exposed to the virus. I think the first known case in California is now November. I have to go back and look for the article about that. I also understand that the Stanford researchers believe that the number of cases may have been underestimated by 50-fold.

December is what I heard for CA.

Stanford trial should never have been released. It's methodology was terrible and has been raked over the coals.

Run:
So why did CA avoid a spike in deaths well over and above the normal background? We know the disease kills. NYC is painfully obvious as are other places.

Does CA not have cites like NYC? No super dense population areas? I don't know enough about LA or SFC to know any better.

There are also some studies coming out (from cruise ship patients) that show over half of asymptomatic cases had abnormal lung opacities visible on CT scans. Now, there is no causation there....but seems improbable that that many people on a given cruise would coincidentally have lung issues. There is a lot we don't know.....

The point still remains that California was exposed to the virus months before shelter in place, and has a much lower rate now of confirmed cases and deaths. That means the mortality rate is being reported much higher than it really is in California. And you know where that leads to- that shelter in place is a blunt over-reaction. I say again, everyone will eventually be exposed to the virus, and for now the only thing stopping it is your own body.

SF Bay Area has BART, but no subways. NYC has not been able to just stop the subways from running. That means their initial spread will have been much higher than California. We also know that California had a really severe flu season in Fall 2019. More reported deaths than normal, but not enough to fill semi-trailers of dead bodies.

Just a guess....major international airports, then everyone is crammed on subways & trains, high density burroughs, and high rise apts. etc.

Utopia for the virus....

BIL is an ER nurse in CA ( Oakland are)..
he swears he had this last Nov / Dec..
normally healthy as a horse..
this brought him down..
thought it was just a bad flu..
and that's what they treated..

he's in NC now..
looking to test to see if he did..

Rika

yep.
NYC is like a hamster habitrail

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1587656909.jpg

But in metal boxes packed full of people going every which way..

CA, even high population LA is spread wide by comparison. And, they primarily use single occupancy metal boxes (cars.)

I just don't want my choice taken away. If people choose to stay inside, their choice. If I want to go outside, I think it should be my choice with my precautions. I Certainly wouldn't go to a gym but I would a supermarket. Wear a facemask, rubber gloves, keep 6 feet and hope for the best. Both sides at least still have a choice. I went to an auto parts store a couple days ago. Wore a mask, felt like an idiot and kept 6 feet from the cashier. Even scrubbed my hands afterwards. To me that is plenty.

Freedom is pretty important to me. From what I gather on the radio, The mayor of NYC talking about reporting on neighbors, CT law enforcement using drones to monitor crowds. If true, I don't like where this is going. Things hardly go backwards.

I miss bowling too.

Stay safe everyone.

There is a distinct difference between going to the store with protection on and having or going to gatherings. The mayor is talking about social gatherings and events where people are in close proximity. I went to the doctor yesterday. I wore a mask and gloves, took an Uber and felt totally fine with it. There are still people out and about here doing their business. I think there may be some level of "freedom paranoia" developing.

I predicted that people will blame the weather, but the reason the Bay Area doesn't have the NY problem is because they started social distancing long before anyone in NY even thought about it. The Bay Area was seeded hard and early in Santa Clara County and only held it together because local businesses took action early with WFH, spreading out the work force and county shelter in place orders ahead of the state. I was there for it and part of it and glad we did it.

G

Are the nurses and doctors self isolating ?

They are at high risk of being infected and responsible for infecting and killing others.

Many counties in the bay area are done with "flattening the curve".

Moving the goal posts is lying to the people.

This. This was supposed to end 3 weeks ago. Now some governors are saying June and others are saying not until there is a vaccine (which may never happen).

Never been to LA, does it have the large volume of huge apartment buildings that NYC city has? Driving 95 through NYC, there is just no room to avoid anyone. There are these huge apartment complexes (Gov Projects I assume) that line the highway for miles. If you have seen the show Goodtimes, like the beginning of each show (though I think that's Chicago). Hallways and elevators, no way to avoid anyone.

Now my only knowledge of LA is from Boyz in the hood so obviously very, very limited knowledge. A lot of people but is houses. Is that the case or does LA have the volume of folks living in the same proximity like NYC? Curious.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1587665048.JPG

per https://www.shoupdogg.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/0506OsgoogEtAl_LANYDensity_report.pdf

CA has a 6 point plan what needs to be in place before turning more things back on. There are many exemptions for essential businesses and there is a lot of activity already. Look at Bay Are traffic, far from stopped! Some sectors are hit hard, others not so much because they can WFH or are meeting essential requirements. Not only the state has rolled out essential rules, the feds have too.

It is in nobody's interest to shut down the place if it isn't necessary. A lot of politicians do have a business interest to get going again, including the CA Governor. I can move around freely here and most people are following the measures, there is no law enforcement presence. For example, I do have neighbors that don't buy into it and they follow none of the rules. Nobody has hassled them, not the neighbors, leave alone law enforcement.

G

Good info. LA is the suburban sprawl over hundreds of square miles.

The inner cities in places like NY are hit hardest due to the housing density and lack of social distancing as a result.

Really?

PPE man. Just like any other work with hazardous materials. PPE.

Now it is coming out that my governor is going to extend the stay at home order for another month. :mad::mad::mad:

****ing tyrant!

Some are trying to, but nurses don’t make much money, can’t usually afford to rent a separate hotel room or apartment. My neighborhood has some dual HCW families, they are struggling with childcare too. I’ve heard of nurses being kicked out of their isolation housing by landlords who don’t want virus exposed people.

You’ve looked at your state’s curve? I don’t see any/much flattening.

The CA plan reads more like open ended goals instead of a plan where progress is measurable.

The federal government's plan in contrast is clear and objective with specific quantifiable gates for each phase.

And therein lies the problem, politicians making up rules as they go. The San Jose mayor and SC county politicians are going at it right now being at odds about what's essential and what's not.

I googled that 6 point plan, which the governor has held out as the “benchmarks” to be reached to determine starting re-opening.

😂

People really buy that?

“Plan” = Californians will have their freedoms given back when when the Governor says they will be given back.

I don't give a ****. That's irrelevant. There is no legal basis to confine healthy people to their homes indefinitely.

Absolutely.

Healthcare workers are catching the Wuhan flu PPE or not and many are asymptomatics so it's totally logical to have them self quarantine and avoid contact with anyone outside the health care setting until this is over.

Society will have to make a choice between safety and economics. You can't have both.

These healthcare workers going back to their families and communities is a risk vector due to the high exposure on the job. Are you suggesting we accept the risk of infecting everyone so they can live comfortably ?

Newsom originally said lockdown was to #flattenthecurve so hospitals weren’t overburdened by corona virus patients.

That’s been accomplished.

So now, he believes the virus provided a great “opportunity for reimagining a [more] progressive era as it [relates] to capitalism,’‘So yes, absolutely we see this as an opportunity to reshape the way we do business and how we govern.”

Therefore no more talk about #flatteningthecurve, instead it’s an amazingly transparent “plan” that allows him to lock down Californians for as long as he deems necessary to “reshape” California in his “progressive” vision.

And their well on their way. All landlords locked out of the courthouses from bringing eviction actions for non paying tenants, indefinitely. Hotel rooms being turned into homeless shelters, indefinitely. A bill to rewrite all apartment leases and reduce rent by 50%.

Amazing 40 million people buy into that. 😜