So how close is a covid vaccine?

[Arizona_928]

Think we'll have one by x-mas?

[gregpark]

The odds are against it. It normally takes 5-10 years to come up with a safe viable vaccine for anything but this one could be expedited by so many brainiacs working on it 24/7. I think they're still trying to develope one for HIV and have been trying since the 80s. If they don't come up with one before the resurgence and shut things down again I'm fearing a revolution on top of all the many other problems.

[Noah930]

I listened to some interview about 2 weeks ago with some head woman at the CDC. She was hopeful for having a vaccine for health care providers/frontliners by this fall, and maybe for the general public by next spring.

But I also have considered the usual timeframes posted by gregpark above, and her predictions seem overly optimistic. And it's even possible that we never really develop a vaccine for this virus (like we do for chickenpox/varicella), if it mutates too quickly (like influenza).

[onewhippedpuppy]

We still don’t have one for the 1918 Spanish Flu. So don’t hold your breath.

[Noah930]

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy

We still don’t have one for the 1918 Spanish Flu. So don’t hold your breath.

But isn't that the best way to avoid getting it?

[flipper35]

I am not a doc or virologist or anything of the sort.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/scientists-get-an-atomic-level-look-at-how-a-drug-blocks-the-coronavirus/

https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/310681-new-coronavirus-vaccine-advances-to-phase-2-human-trials

[Ziggythecat]

Finding a vaccine and assuming it's an injection and distributing to all Americans...3-4 years

[vash]

i have no clue. i am not privy to such intel.

but i can guess like the rest of you. september, 2022..the second Tuesday of the month.

[Deschodt]

There's a new promising treatment from...China (insert conspiracy here) cultivating antobodies, it completely eradicates the disease and provides temporary iummunity, and it could be ready by Xmas... Not a vaccine, a temp thing, or a cure for the infection... here's hoping...

Can't find original article but here's a similar one https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-scientists-china-drug-pandemic-vaccine.html

[jyl]

I think (insert all the caveats) pretty good odds (70%?) that multiple vaccines are approved by year end.

However I think these may well not be very good vaccines (may only reduce, rather than eliminate, chance of developing disease; may only be effective for a limited time; etc). I think initial approval may be for emergency or limited use (populations particularly at risk). I am pretty sure availability of these vaccines will be very limited at first (due to manufacturing constraints and political restrictions).

When will a non-HCW, non-highly vulnerable, non-VIP, non-rich American (or Chinese, or Western European) be able to roll up his or her sleeve and get the shot(s)? Maybe starting mid 2021? When will the average person in poorer countries or countries without large domestic biopharma manufacturing capacity be able? Maybe 2022-23, or never?

This is, of course, so much faster than normal vaccine development that many think it impossible. But we've never seen tens of billions of dollars hurled at close to 100 different programs with regulators desperate to approve something and the global economy at stake.

China is furiously working on multiple vaccine programs and are absolutely determined to win the race to be the "first", for propaganda and political reasons, so they will find something to approve as the Glorious Triumphant People's Vaccine, if there are candidates that are even minimally approvable.

The US has the same mindset - there is no way any US President wants to go hat in hand to China and beg on his knees for the Glorious Triumphant People's Vaccine.

The UK and Europe don't want to be presented with an offer they can't refuse - "install Huawei throughout your networks, sell us your best technology companies, adopt the yuan as your reserve currency, and make these public statements praising Xi, or NO VACCINE FOR YOU!", or "drop all tariffs on US imports, beg for 50% tariffs on all your exports, privatize your national health services under US ownership, and buy an F35 for every household, or NO VACCINE FOR YOU!"

Global cooperation is breaking down, it is becoming every nation/bloc for itself, each is rehearsing its Soup Nazi act. And these three blocs - China, US, UK/EU - all have large and very advanced biopharma industries. There aren't many others who do - Israel does, Japan too.

[KFC911]

It doesn't matter....the US is back! Or so I hear...

No one knows imo...just hope at this point...and political bs based upon wi$hful thinking.

I hope "they're" right fwiw...just realistic.

My prediction is 2/22/2022 @ 2:22 am....but I'm not Tabz

[Arizona_928]

That's the thing. The new normal. Social distancing is only a recommendation. A vaccine in the herd puts things back to normal.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

I'll stop by Moderna tomorrow and see what they have to say. It probably won't be good. I get the sense their press release was more about stock price than having something real in development.

That said, given the worldwide resources being thrown at it combined with the existing library of vaccine knowledge, it will be sooner than later.

[Mahler9th]

"Think we'll have one by x-mas? "

I think that there will be perhaps several medications called "vaccines" that are implemented in various places around the globe in late Q4 2020/early Q1 2020. These won't be Rx medications, but actually some form(s) of vaccines meant to be administered to prevent, or partially prevent infection. "Partially" may be effectiveness and/or time.

I think there are already and may be more massive logistics projects around the globe to distribute vaccine(s) including ensuring that there are people, tools and supplies as necessary to make things happen as fast as possible.

I have contacts that are or have been in the vaccine business as scientists and business people (e.g., CEO's), but I have not checked in with any of them... at least as of yet.

I think the Moderna effort is interesting since it appears to represent a new approach in some scientific/technical aspects of development. Likely some of the other efforts around the globe are similar in nature, and I suspect there are some that are very similar to- let's call them 20th century approaches.

And of course one of the challenges is getting the numbers required for statistical power.

Right now I think that there may be multiple tools and practices that will lead to an improved situation... continued identification and refinement of Rx approaches, at least partially effective and available vaccines, and new practices to help keep transmission low, et cetera.

[aap1966]

No effective vaccine.

Unfortunately, the solution to a problem is not always simply a function of throwing enough money at it.

Expect heaps (as in HEAPS) of press releases from public institutions (“we want donations“) and private companies (“we want a higher share price”) about how their vaccine is just around the corner , but don’t expect an effective vaccine.

Of course, I would really, really like to be really, really wrong.

[sc_rufctr]

Originally Posted by gregpark

The odds are against it. It normally takes 5-10 years to come up with a safe viable vaccine for anything but this one could be expedited by so many brainiacs working on it 24/7. I think they're still trying to develope one for HIV and have been trying since the 80s. If they don't come up with one before the resurgence and shut things down again I'm fearing a revolution on top of all the many other problems.

IMO There wont be a second shut down. They'll just let the virus run its course.

[jyl]

Originally Posted by sc_rufctr

IMO There wont be a second shut down. They'll just let the virus run its course.

I agree.

Covid is increasingly an economic, political and ideological issue. Suppose a city opens up in May 15. People start getting infected and spreading the virus, 2 weeks later cases are clearly rising but that is obfuscated by more testing or simply governments concealing or manipulating data. 2 weeks after that hospitalizations are clearly rising. 2 weeks later hospital capacity starts getting critical and deaths are rising, but the latter is also obfuscated. Might take two full months (mid-July) before data clearly shows a "second wave", then another month of denial, arguing and posturing. CARES money and Covid unemployment benefits have run out by then, the states and local govts are out of money, the federal govt is deadlocked on proving more funds, the economic cost of re-closing is seen as too high, and the elections are only 4 months away. A few states and cities might try to shut down again but for the most part, the epidemic will go unchecked.

[wilnj]

Originally Posted by sc_rufctr

IMO There wont be a second shut down.

I certainly hope so but many have forgotten what the idea behind the shutdown was. Now that we’ve achieved that goal, it’s about power and control.

[livi]

I am guessing a vaccine for the general populace will be at least 1-2 years away. The problem with vaccines is that you are proposing to give a medication to healthy individuals in order to avoid getting sick with an infection that you MAYBE will catch and MAYBE will be very sick from. In this case probably to hundreds of millions of people. You will have to be pretty darn certain there will not turn out to be any major negative side effects that show up 6-12 months later.
In case of say Ebola with a very high mortality rate the stakes are higher and you would have to be willing to take a risk of side effects. Not least as the potential number of patients are a fraction compared to corona.
Lets say it turns out that a vaccine against corona can result in a cronic neurologic desease albeit only in 1 in 10000 patients. It will still amount to a gastly number of cases.

[onewhippedpuppy]

The better question, who would sign up for a vaccine that was rushed into service years more quickly than normal?