Thinking of buying a Hybrid? Think again.

[Rick Lee]

VA let hybrids use the HOV lanes up until recently. Those registered before the deadline were grandfathered in and can still use them. But it really defeats the purpose. Are HOV lanes there for encouraging carpools to save gas or reduce traffic? If for saving gas, then I guess hybrids are fine. But why no turbo diesels? If for reducing traffic, then all cars should have to have 2-3 people in them to use HOV. What's the point of letting hybrids use HOV when the vast majority of them do so with no passengers? When my lady and I commute in her MINI we are conserving more gas and reducing traffic more than any hybrid with just a driver in it. And when we ride my bike together, we beat even the hybrids with passengers.

[mikester]

Originally Posted by Z-man

Yeah, but what about the electric motor? And the sophistocated connections between the gas and electric systems? There are less mechanics familiar with that technology, and it will probably cost more to maintain in the long run to have a hybrid vehcile serviced than it's gas-only counterpart.

Oh, and if your goal is to buy a hybrid to save gas, keep in mind that it will take 10-15 YEARS to make up the difference, given that on average hybrid powered cars cost roughly $5000.00 more than a comprable gas powered vehicle. If you do the math, you'll see how the hybrid car won't save you much (if any) money in the long run.

As stated, the small diesel car rules the roost now. I suspect in the near future, the biodiesel will be the short term answer, and once they figure out how to efficiently make and bottle hydrogen, the hydrogen fuel cell powered car will be the answer.

My $0.42,
-Z-man.

A Camry starts at ~$18,500 and a Prius starts at ~$20,950.

They are close to the same cargo and passenger space.

20950-18500= 2450 difference

I didn't even look at features to see if the base models were equal in those - I'm assuming they are. The base Prius has a CD/Stereo, power everything and keyless entry.

I've had a Camry, 2 in fact and rented many many corollas and they are worlds apart. The Prius is much closer to the Camry in comparison. Still 7 years is a long time to realize the savings but as long as gas prices continue to rise (as they have for the last few years) as significantly as they are then that time frame shortens with it. Purchase of one of these cars is not so shortsighted as to say TODAY I'm going to save x amount of dollars but betting that the future will hold an even higher savings due to increased prices.

In the end if I'm wrong I am supremely happy that fuel prices went down and I have had a car that I am extremely happy with - if I am right I saved some $$$ on gas and I have had a car that I am extremely happy with. I don't think I could have gotten a car that I would like as much for less than what I paid (a little over $21,000).

[Z-man]

Originally Posted by mikester

A Camry starts at ~$18,500 and a Prius starts at ~$20,950.

They are close to the same cargo and passenger space.

20950-18500= 2450 difference

I didn't even look at features to see if the base models were equal in those - I'm assuming they are. The base Prius has a CD/Stereo, power everything and keyless entry.

I've had a Camry, 2 in fact and rented many many corollas and they are worlds apart. The Prius is much closer to the Camry in comparison. Still 7 years is a long time to realize the savings but as long as gas prices continue to rise (as they have for the last few years) as significantly as they are then that time frame shortens with it. Purchase of one of these cars is not so shortsighted as to say TODAY I'm going to save x amount of dollars but betting that the future will hold an even higher savings due to increased prices.

In the end if I'm wrong I am supremely happy that fuel prices went down and I have had a car that I am extremely happy with - if I am right I saved some $$$ on gas and I have had a car that I am extremely happy with. I don't think I could have gotten a car that I would like as much for less than what I paid (a little over $21,000).

You are still comparing apples to oranges. Why didn't you compare a standard Camry vs. a Hybrid Camry? That's a closer comparison, don't you think?

So...let's do the math:

2008 Camry Hybrid - Automatic - MSRP: $25860.00
Gas Mileage (MPG): 40city / 48highway. (Average: 44mpg)

2008 Camry 2.4 4-cyl Automatic - MSRP: $20280.00
Gas Mileage (MPG): 24city / 33highway. (Average: 28.5)

Source for the numbers are: Kelly Blue Book

Price difference: $5580.00

Let's assume our "test driver" drives 12,000 miles a year, which is about the national average. Let's also assume a mix of driving and simply average the city/highway MPG for both vehicles (44mpg for the hybrid, 28.5 for the gas powerplant). Let's also assume $2.75 for a gallon of regular gasoline. Thus we have:

In one year's time, the Camry Hybrid will consume 273 gallons of gasoline. (12,000 miles divided by 44mpg = 272.7) At 2.75 a gallon, that's a yearly gasoline expense of $750.75.

On the other hand, the gas powered Camry will consume 421 gallons of gas. At $2.75 a gallon, that's a yearly gasonline expense of $1157.75.

So on a yearly basis, the Camry Hybrid driver is saving a whopping $407.00 a year. Given that he paid $5580.00 more for his hybrid, that means it will take him almost 14 years (13.7) before he breaks even and starts to save money due to his better gas mileage.

Now I ask you, how many folks do you know who keep their cars around for 14 years?

Not really a cost savings, is it?!?
-Z-man.

[jyl]

OK, here is a geeky financial analysis. Compare Prius over 5 years to Car X.

Assumptions are:
- Current gasoline price/gal
- Annual incr in gasoline price
- Miles driven/yr
- Prius MPG
- Car X MPG
- Discount Rate
Result is NPV of annual gasoline cost savings, for years 1-5.

What scenarios do you want? Here are three:

Scenario A:
- $3.00
- 10%
- 12,000
- 45
- 30
- 5%
result $2,100

Scenario B:
- $3.00
- 5%
- 10,000
- 45
- 30
- 5%
result $1,600

Scenario B:
- $3.00
- 15%
- 15,000
- 45
- 30
- 5%
result $2,900

Our situation is closest to Scenario A, so if Car X would have been the Camry, the gas cost savings would have justified paying $2,100 more for the Prius than the Camry, all else being equal.

[mikester]

Well, to be honest I never considered a Camry hybrid an option and really don't knwo why anyone would buy a hybrid that got less than 45mpg easily. In all fairness those are apples to apples numbers.

I'm just hung up on folks bashing the Prius which serves the "Hybrid Purpose" much better than the Camry does. There is no car that is really in between the Corolla and the Camry to compare apples to apples unfortunately.

[jyl]

The problem with Z-man's analysis is it assumes gasoline prices stay constant and also doesn't have a time value of money.

I ran scenarios using the conventional vs hybrid Camry, based on the MPG that Z-man posted, and got NPV of year 1-5 gas cost savings appx $5,000 if assume gasoline price +20%/yr and driving 20,000 miles/yr. That's a pretty demanding scenario - I can believe the +20% gas price (implies $5.00/gal in 2010) but I don't drive that much.

[jyl]

Just adding - I'm not a fan of the "hybrids" that are simply hybrid systems tacked onto an existing vehicle, like the Camry hybrid, Escape hybrid, etc. I think those are mostly marketing exercises.

Originally Posted by jyl

The problem with Z-man's analysis is it assumes gasoline prices stay constant and also doesn't have a time value of money.

I ran scenarios using the conventional vs hybrid Camry, based on the MPG that Z-man posted, and got NPV of year 1-5 gas cost savings appx $5,000 if assume gasoline price +20%/yr and driving 20,000 miles/yr. That's a pretty demanding scenario - I can believe the +20% gas price (implies $5.00/gal in 2010) but I don't drive that much.

[Z-man]

Originally Posted by jyl

The problem with Z-man's analysis is it assumes gasoline prices stay constant and also doesn't have a time value of money.

I ran scenarios using the conventional vs hybrid Camry, based on the MPG that Z-man posted, and got NPV of year 1-5 gas cost savings appx $5,000 if assume gasoline price +20%/yr and driving 20,000 miles/yr. That's a pretty demanding scenario - I can believe the +20% gas price (implies $5.00/gal in 2010) but I don't drive that much.

Ok, so even is the cost difference is HALF of what I came up with, it would still take 7 years to make up the difference, which is still longer than what people usually keep cars for.

-Z-man.

[dd74]

Look, the real question is whether or not the Prius will chirp when accelerating from first to second.

[jyl]

The thing that cracks me up is all those people who commute big miles solo in a gas-sucking full-sized Detroit SUV or pickup.

Scenario:
- $3.00 gas px today
- 15% gas inflation
- 20,000 miles/yr
- 50 Prius highway MPG (using highway 'cuz 20,000 miles/yr has to be mostly highway)
- 20 gas hog highway MPG
- 5% discount rate
result $10,000 NPV of gas savings in years 1-5

Not to mention the difference in maintenance costs

[Hugh R]

Originally Posted by Z-man

Oh, and if your goal is to buy a hybrid to save gas, keep in mind that it will take 10-15 YEARS to make up the difference, given that on average hybrid powered cars cost roughly $5000.00 more than a comprable gas powered vehicle. If you do the math, you'll see how the hybrid car won't save you much (if any) money in the long run.


My $0.42,
-Z-man.

Yeah, that's true in general. In MY case, I'm buying at dealer true cost from by Brother-in-Law who works for Toyota USA. MY premium cost for the Hybrid over the regular version is $1,700. I also have averaged right at 18,000 miles per year over the last ten years. At 24 mpg for the regular Camry versus 40 for the Hybrid, that's 750 gallons per year versus 450 gallons per year, at $3.00/gallon, that's $900/per year in gas savings, or a little under 2 years payback in MY case.

[Z-man]

Originally Posted by Hugh R

Yeah, that's true in general. In MY case, I'm buying at dealer true cost from by Brother-in-Law who works for Toyota USA. MY premium cost for the Hybrid over the regular version is $1,700. I also have averaged right at 18,000 miles per year over the last ten years. At 24 mpg for the regular Camry versus 40 for the Hybrid, that's 750 gallons per year versus 450 gallons per year, at $3.00/gallon, that's $900/per year in gas savings, or a little under 2 years payback in MY case.

Not so fast, Hugh -- I suspect that you are comparing your dealer true cost price on the Hybrid VS. the MSRP price of the gas powered Camry. What would be your discount on the gas powered Camry? The price difference between that number and your cost for the hybrid is what would be a truer comparison, since you can get the gas-Camry at a discount price as well.

Even if your premium cost is under $2k for the hybrid, you are not the norm -- most folks don't have that they of opportunity available to them.

Originally Posted by jyl

The thing that cracks me up is all those people who commute big miles solo in a gas-sucking full-sized Detroit SUV or pickup.

Scenario:
- $3.00 gas px today
- 15% gas inflation
- 20,000 miles/yr
- 50 Prius highway MPG (using highway 'cuz 20,000 miles/yr has to be mostly highway)
- 20 gas hog highway MPG
- 5% discount rate
result $10,000 NPV of gas savings in years 1-5

Not to mention the difference in maintenance costs

Are you saying that in terms of maintenance costs, a hybrid Prius is cheaper to maintain over a 5 year period vs. say, an OHV 4.6 liter Ford V8 powerplant? I can't imagine that being true...

-Z-man.

[Hugh R]

Z

No, I'm comparing my cost of a regular versus a hybrid bought from my brother in law. The dealer mark up on the hybrid is closer to 5K. So for me its a good deal, but your mileage may vary.

[jyl]

Originally Posted by Z-man

Are you saying that in terms of maintenance costs, a hybrid Prius is cheaper to maintain over a 5 year period vs. say, an OHV 4.6 liter Ford V8 powerplant? I can't imagine that being true...

Absolutely. The Prius has an excellent reliability record - even among Toyotas, it is excellent. The hybrid system requires no special maintenance at all.

Fords are - well, in my experience they are not particularly reliable. The Fords I have had were crap, actually.

[lilacRS]

Originally Posted by Z-man

2008 Camry Hybrid - Automatic - MSRP: $25860.00
Gas Mileage (MPG): 40city / 48highway. (Average: 44mpg)

2008 Camry 2.4 4-cyl Automatic - MSRP: $20280.00
Gas Mileage (MPG): 24city / 33highway. (Average: 28.5)

Those numbers are from the old way EPA tests the cars. the 2008 figures are closer to real world fuel economy numbers.

The new numbers for the Camry Hybrid is 33 city/34 highway (34 combined)
and the regular 4 cyl version is 21 city/31 highway (25 combined)

One of my non P-cars is a Highlander Hybrid, and we never could get close to the old EPA numbers, we do get better than the newly published numbers though. I know many Prius owners that get high 30's, low 40mpg vs 60 which was originally published.

But remember that lots of people who bought the Hybrids don't care about recouping their costs of the car vs fuel savings. I know that I don't care.

Besides my Hybrid, I also have a 99 Suburban Turbo Diesel which I specially ordered new.

yes, I bought the Hybrid to save gas,and paid a $3500 premium in 1999 for the diesel option in the Suburban so that I could save on fuel costs. I knew when I bought both cars that I would never recoup the fuel economy savings/price premium as we don't drive that many miles. I don't mind paying extra for options on my cars, but I hate paying extra for fuel if I know I could be saving. I always know which stations have the cheapest fuel in my area, and I track my MPG's with every tankful.

BTW, I love our Highlander Hybrid. Its well put together, fits our family of 6 plus the dog. This vehicle replaced our V8 Land Cruiser, so our fuel economy went from an average of 13 mpg per tank to 26.5mpg with our Hybrid.

[jyl]

Typical MPG for a Prius in mostly city driving is mid-40s mpg. Unusually bad conditions (very hilly, short trips, cold weather, etc) can get you as low as high-30s mpg. More suburban driving with fewer stoplights and more coasting can get you in the low-50s. We get roughly 45 mpg with ours, in daily driving. Freeway cruising at 70 mph is 50 mpg, more or less.

I've gotten over 65 mpg on a road trip, but was driving 57 mph and following 18-wheelers. In the other direction, dear wifey blasted all the way with the cruise control set at 75 mph and got appx 48 mpg. When I pointed out that, for the Prius to maintain 75 mph up the steeper grades, she was getting 13-14 mpg in places, she told me she couldn't care less.

Going back to the "scenarios", our Prius replaced our accursed Range Rover which gets <15 mpg in our typical driving. Over five years, I figured the Prius will save us several thousand dollars (NPV), no kidding.

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by jyl

The thing that cracks me up is all those people who commute big miles solo in a gas-sucking full-sized Detroit SUV or pickup.

Scenario:
- $3.00 gas px today
- 15% gas inflation
- 20,000 miles/yr
- 50 Prius highway MPG (using highway 'cuz 20,000 miles/yr has to be mostly highway)
- 20 gas hog highway MPG
- 5% discount rate
result $10,000 NPV of gas savings in years 1-5

Not to mention the difference in maintenance costs

your 15% gas inflation implies $5.25 gas in 5 years. Here gasoline is going down in price.

[mikester]

Originally Posted by red-beard

your 15% gas inflation implies $5.25 gas in 5 years. Here gasoline is going down in price.

Here gas has fluctuated so much between $2.75 and $3.75that you really can't tell what the heck it is doing. I think it may be even be a strategy - make us pretty much unable to see what is happening until it's $5.

Is that not happening everywhere?

[island911]

Originally Posted by lilacRS

Those numbers are from the old way EPA tests ....


.... I knew when I bought both cars that I would never recoup the fuel economy savings/price premium as we don't drive that many miles. I don't mind paying extra for options on my cars, but I hate paying extra for fuel if I know I could be saving. I always know which stations have the cheapest fuel in my area, and I track my MPG's with every tankful.
...

That is the best answer I have read to date!

All these (other) stupid rationalizations coming from smug hybrid owners are/have-been annoying. Alll this rot about 'saving the planet' by dragging around hundreds of pounds of heavy metal batteries . ..or the dorks with the "carbon neutral" bumperstickers on their Toyota Pious.... Yet I can certainly understand buying one to simply flip-off the gas man. ... It's like running Linux because because it seems M-soft is too damn greedy for their mediocre product. --All those rich MSFT guys... (I was going to say Apple, instead of Linux, but Jobs and co. isn't exactly in the not crazy greedy category.)

Anyway... Of course I have no Diesel, or Hybrid, and I run M-soft, but that's all because I'm cheap. I don't want to spend a dime to save a nickel. But, I could see where people would - it's a political statement. --One most of us agree with. Just don't try to pass off your hybrids as holier than thou. --that table is reserved for Apple users who stick it to the man by making Steve Jobs rich.

[the]

Using similar cars (Camry Hybrid v. Camry Gas), I wonder how resale value is going to compare 5 years down the road?

The gas model will still have a long, inexpensive, trouble free life ahead of it, which will be reflected by the market in the resale value.

Will people be interested in owning the Hybrid from years 5 through 10? Is that going to be feasible, given the technology in the cars?