How long will this recession last?

[Normy]

Hopefully long enough to remove most of the damn republicans from office!

[WI wide body]

Originally Posted by Hugh R

So you money guys out there, what do you tell your clients who are seeing daily 100 or 200 point drops in the market? I'm in what I thought were well diversified mutual funds, and they're all heading south.

Well Hugh, I'm wondering if the guys who had all those rosy predictions for 2008 in that previous post are about to adjust their estimate...or maybe they already have.

[jyl]

I wish I had - well, an answer would be best, but I wish I even had a considered opinion.

I've never looked at why some recessions are longer and some are shorter, or how long this particular recession will last.

Typical or "average" recessions last 2-3 quarters. I suppose that is the default answer that we should start from.

[Moneyguy1]

Hugh...Take the advice of the Hitchhikers Guide and Don't panic. If you are consistent in your investments and do not obsess on the ups and downs, in the long run you should do OK. I, for onr, intend to watch for a while longe and then probably jump in with both feet.

[jyl]

Here is something I came across. http://www.fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/7962.pdf

Looks like the longest post-war recessions lasted 16 months, and the typical has been 3 quarters (I was wrong when I said 2-3 qtrs). The "double-dip" recession period in the early 1980s lasted 2 years. See Table 1.

Begs the question of why does one recession last 9 months and another one last 16, but again the historical pattern is a starting point.

[Hugh R]

I'm just a little surprised. I've tried to balance between financials, large cap growth and value, mid caps, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, asian, emerging markets, etc. Lately, when one is down they're all down. The common thread I guess, is that they are all US funds investing in those sectors. By that I mean I'm not trading on the London, Hong Kong or other exchanges.

[jyl]

When markets are under big pressure, they tend to be quite correlated - i.e. they all fall together.

Look at the US and foreign indicies (e.g. on Yahoo!Finance). SPX (US), FTSE (UK), CAC40 (France), DAX (Germany), Hang Seng (Hong Kong), Nikkei (Japan), etc. You can see, in periods when the markets are falling sharply, they tend to fall together. Mar/Apr 07, Aug 07, Nov 07, and now.

Between those big stress periods, the markets diverge and some outperform others.

[dd74]

Originally Posted by WI wide body

You are probably correct...it is mostly Gore's fault...along with the ever evil left. Right?

It must be a warm fuzzy to live in a fictive vacuum where the same bad guys are responsible for all of our nation's ills.

Are you referring to me or Al?

[WI wide body]

Originally Posted by dd74

Are you referring to me or Al?

Ah heck, you're a bright guy. Figure it out.

[jim72911t]

Originally Posted by Wayne at Pelican Parts

..... Industries that I think will be stronger this year will be local manufacturing.........

-Wayne

Wayne, while I agree with most of your assessment, I'm curious about the above statement. I guess my first question would be: How would you define "local manufacturing?"

I've got a dog in this hunt, and the current economic situation has gotten me to think a bit more conservatively about future plans for expansion in the industry.

Jim

[the]

Originally Posted by Normy

Hopefully long enough to remove most of the damn republicans from office!

That already happened, last year. Remember the Democrats celebrating taking control of both houses of Congress?

How's the Reid/Pelosi crew doing so far?

[dd74]

Originally Posted by WI wide body

Ah heck, you're a bright guy. Figure it out.

Bright? No, not really. When I'm dumb enough to waste my time wondering what you're wondering about, I truly wonder...