certain death

[RWebb]

They are not mincing words on the evacuation this time.

That's smart. Ike could be particularly dangerous.

Best wishes to all down there.

[red-beard]

On the Weather-Underground, the blog talks about a new method for catagorizing Hurricanes, not just based on maximum windspeed. It is an energy model, which uses windspeed integrated over the entire area of the storm. Based on the new model, Ike is more powerful than Katrina.

The new experimental model was developed to help look at storm surge better. I don't know if it is connected to the storm surge models used today or not.

I do love the name of the present computer model: SLOSH. Some CS geeks must be very proud of themselves.

[Macroni]

Hard to accept that type of wording.....especially from media outlets.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

The wording is not from the media - it's from the National Weather Service and it's exactly the kind of wording that's necessary to get the average idiot to respond and actually pay attention and act accordingly.

We live in a world where we're constantly bombarded by overstated sensationalist nonsense from the media and everyone else - therefore it takes very direct, straight talk and blunt honesty to get anyone's attention these days.

I have no problem with the wording at all. It's perfectly appropriate for the situation in an ADD society. Hopefully it saves some lives.

[red-beard]

Well, a 22' surge has my attention, and I'm in Romania.

Oh, look, hey. A bird!

[Pazuzu]

It still won't make a difference. Galveston natives are a different breed. They actually think that they can ward off any force of nature that comes their way. I appreciate that kind of commitment to your Island...but when it's all but guaranteed that it will completely and totally be 10 feet underwater...you gotta turn tail and run sometime.

I mean, God himself is out there glaring at them right now. GET THE POINT PEOPLE!

[Mule]

You'll hear a lot of talk about "worse than Katrina." The next storm that inflicts utter destruction on 300 miles of coastline & wreaks havok all the way into Canada way be worse than Katrina. But they don't come around that often.

[onewhippedpuppy]

They're preparing for flooding IN WICHITA due to Ike. The predicted course after landfall takes it just to the E of us, and we've already had something like 6" of rain over the last few days. We're predicted to get another 4" or so today.

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by Pazuzu

It still won't make a difference. Galveston natives are a different breed. They actually think that they can ward off any force of nature that comes their way. I appreciate that kind of commitment to your Island...but when it's all but guaranteed that it will completely and totally be 10 feet underwater...you gotta turn tail and run sometime.

I mean, God himself is out there glaring at them right now. GET THE POINT PEOPLE!

During Rita, there was some crazy resident, maybe homeless, with only 1 arm, who was going to ride it out. A news crew found him and it took HOURS of convincing for him to leave. They had him on TV all day long.

I wonder where he is ow?

[red-beard]

Actually, this storm is larger and has more energy than Katrina. But Texas and Houston are much better prepared than New Orleans and LA.

One problem with Rita, our emergancy supplies were used up from Katrina. And then thay had to move manyof the Katrina evacuees. It was a reason Houston put up the "Not Welcome" signs during Gustov.

[Mule]

Ike is currently a cat 2 with 105 mph winds 956 mb pressure. At this point Katrina was a cat 5. Katrinas a very, very few.

Katrina made landfall with a pressure of 920 mb, the third lowest in history after the FL Keys hurricane and Camille.

From NCDC:
"Katrina moved almost due westward after entering the Gulf of Mexico. A mid-level ridge centered over Texas weakened and moved westward allowing Katrina to gradually turn to the northwest and then north into the weakness in the ridging over the days that followed. Atmospheric and sea-surface conditions (an upper level anticyclone over the Gulf and warm SSTs) were conducive to cyclone's rapid intensification, which lead to Katrina attaining 'major hurricane' status on the afternoon of the 26th.

Continuing to strengthen and move northwards during the next 48 hours, Katrina reached maximum windspeeds on the morning of Sunday August 28th of over 170 mph (150 kts, category 5), and its minimum central pressure dropped that afternoon to 902 mb - the 4th lowest on record for an Atlantic storm. Although Katrina, at its peak strength was comparable to Camille's intensity, it was a significantly larger storm and impacted a broader area of the Gulf coast.

Although tropical cyclones of category 5 strength are rarely sustained for long durations (due to internal dynamics), Katrina remained a strong category 4 strength hurricane despite the entrainment of dryer air and an opening of the eyewall to the south and southwest before landfall on the morning of the 29th (go to NCDC's NEXRAD viewer site for additional radar imagery and animations of Katrina). Landfalling windspeeds at Grand Isle, LA were approximately 125 mph (110 kts) (strong category 3 intensity) with a central pressure of 920mb - the 3rd lowest on record for a landfalling Atlantic storm in the US. Rainfall amounts for Louisiana and along the Gulf are described below along with other impacts of the storms."

This chart is for rainfall, all the way into Canada.

[BRPORSCHE]

I am just up the street at Bush Intercontinental. We will still lose power, but the surge that everyone is worried about won't be a problem here. If you guys are watching the news look for live video from Kemah. I live about 5 miles up the road from there.

[Mule]

This chart is for Katrina wind speeds.

[bivenator]

THat will show you to get in a pissing contest with Mule on hurricane strength.

[Mule]

Ike is for real. Galveston is in serious trouble. Houston may be as well. A hurricane doesn't need to be "worse than Katrina" to be EXTREMELY dangerous. God bless Texas.

[dd74]

Ike was put in perspective this morning for those in L.A.: essentially, if Ike's eye hovered over Central California, 50 mph winds would be felt on the Oregon and Mexico border. That's how large the hurricane is.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

"It's a big'un".

That's what she said.

[red-beard]

One of the guys working on storm surge models came up with a new way to catagorize storms based on total integrated energy. Basically, you look not just at the maximum wind speed, but how big the storm is and the distribution of the windspeed.

Hurricane Ike is closing in on Texas, and stands poised to become one of the most damaging hurricanes of all time. Despite Ike's rated Category 2 strength, the hurricane is much larger and more powerful than Category 5 Katrina or Category 5 Rita. The storm surge from Ike could rival Katrina's, inundating a 200-mile stretch of coast from Galveston to Cameron, Louisiana with waters over 15 feet high. This massive storm surge is due to the exceptional size of Ike. According to the latest wind field estimate (Figure 1), the diameter of Ike's tropical storm and hurricane force winds are 550 and 240 miles, respectively. For comparison, Katrina numbers at landfall were 440 and 210 miles, respectively. As I discussed in yesterday's blog entry, a good measure of the storm surge potential is Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Ike continues to grow larger and has intensified slightly since yesterday, and the hurricane's Integrated Kinetic Energy has increased from 134 to 149 Terajoules. This is 30% higher than Katrina's total energy at landfall. All this extra energy has gone into piling up a vast storm surge that will probably be higher than anything in recorded history along the Texas coast. Storm surge heights of 20-25 feet are possible from Galveston northwards to the Louisiana border. The Texas storm surge record is held by Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

134 to 149 Terajoules!

1 terajoule = 277 777.777 78 kilowatt hours

135 terajoules = 37 500 megawatt hours

Or about the power of 1/2 of the nuclear reactors in the USA for about 1 hour

[dd74]

Not just that, but it's supposed to rise to Cat 3 before hitting land.

[Mule]

He is comparing Ike at what should be max strength to Katrina at landfall. Terrajoules be damned, Ike is no Katrina.