Predictions on where it comes Down

[Hugh R]

At a Target store of course.

[LeeH]

Originally Posted by pwd72s

harmless splashdown in the pacific...my guess.

+1

[GH85Carrera]

They had a story on the local news last night about a lady in Tulsa OK that is the only know person to ever be hit by a piece of a falling satellite. She was walking in the park and it hit her in the shoulder. It was a fairly small piece.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

How much damage did she suffer? Even a small piece would pack a whallop due to the KE involved (KE=1/2mv^2 IIRC). A .220 swift is pretty small too but can kill a deer, 4,000 f/s. Satellite bits could possibly be moving a lot faster...

[masraum]

Originally Posted by Porsche-O-Phile

How much damage did she suffer? Even a small piece would pack a whallop due to the KE involved (KE=1/2mv^2 IIRC). A .220 swift is pretty small too but can kill a deer, 4,000 f/s. Satellite bits could possibly be moving a lot faster...

they may be moving at 4000 fps in orbit, but after coming through miles of atmosphere, something small will probably be moving much slower.

It's like that old myth about a penny dropped off of < insert tall building here > going right through you if it hit you on the head. Just like a human body, a penny has a terminal velocity, and that velocity is low enough to not even break the skin.

Mythbusters tested the penny thing.

[looneybin]

maybe it will land on that nutjob that thinks the world is going to end this weekend

[LeeH]

Its rate of descent has slowed. Maybe we'll get some debris afterall:

NASA now says, "There is a low probability any debris that survives re-entry will land in the United States, but the possibility cannot be discounted because of this changing rate of descent."

[MT930]

Getting A weather briefing on a flight this afternoon. The briefer was required to tell me about it. "Keep your eyes open for space trash reentry"

The odds are, it will end up in the water.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

Way faster than 4,000 fps in orbit - orbital velocity is about 17,500 mph (or 25,670 fps). You're right though - it would slow down a lot on its way back through the lower atmosphere although still be going at a pretty good clip when it slammed into the ground (or someone's shoulder). Obviously different pieces will have different terminal velocities hence the "debris field" created.

The Shuttle has (had) to do a lot of maneuvering/S-turns on the way back in order to slow down in roughly 1/2 an orbit. This thing is just going to free-fall right on in without the benefit of any such deliberate aerodynamic braking/speed bleed-off techniques, so I wouldn't be at all surprised if some pieces don't end up lasering into the ground at very high speeds and others just kind of go "thunk" without any major drama due to low(er) terminal Vs.

Should be interesting. I hope it ends up being observable as it comes in and doesn't just go "splash" without anyone getting to see anything.

[Z-man]

Originally Posted by Porsche-O-Phile

How much damage did she suffer? Even a small piece would pack a whallop due to the KE involved (KE=1/2mv^2 IIRC). A .220 swift is pretty small too but can kill a deer, 4,000 f/s. Satellite bits could possibly be moving a lot faster...

Yes, but if it were the size of a laden African swallow, what would be it's wind speed?

[Grady Clay]

NASA - UARS

Update #10
Fri, 23 Sep 2011 08:45:08 AM MDT
As of 10:30 a.m. EDT on Sept. 23, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 100 miles by 105 miles (160 km by 170 km). Re-entry is expected late Friday, Sept. 23, or early Saturday, Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time. Solar activity is no longer the major factor in the satellite’s rate of descent. The satellite’s orientation or configuration apparently has changed, and that is now slowing its descent. There is a low probability any debris that survives re-entry will land in the United States, but the possibility cannot be discounted because of this changing rate of descent. It is still too early to predict the time and location of re-entry with any certainty, but predictions will become more refined in the next 12 to 18 hours.

Best,
Grady

[GH85Carrera]

They did not talk much about impact damage to her, mostly a small burn. She looked just fine health wise.

[VenezianBlau 87]

Originally Posted by futuresoptions

"If you find something you think may be a piece of UARS, do not touch it. Contact a local law enforcement official for assistance. "

Remember folks getting arrested when they took pieces of the shuttle

Seriously? Different situtation as the Columbia crash involved a loss of life accident investigation.

[RWebb]

maybe it will hit PARF

[Jim Richards]

Originally Posted by RWebb

maybe it will hit PARF

God willing

[Superman]

I'll get out my baseball mitt.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

I remember guys wearing hats with bullseyes on them when skylab came down in the 70s. Wonder if I can find one on eBay...

[afterburn 549]

I was looking at orbit trajectory ..Kansas get ready !

[LeeH]

Won't be along now...

Update #12
Fri, 23 Sep 2011 07:50:07 PM MST

As of 10:30 p.m. EDT on Sept. 23, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 85 miles by 90 miles (135 km by 140 km). Re-entry is expected between 11:45 p.m. Friday, Sept. 23, and 12:45 a.m., Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time (3:45 a.m. to 4:45 a.m. GMT). During that time period, the satellite will be passing over Canada and Africa, as well as vast areas of the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans. The risk to public safety is very remote.

[looneybin]

so where did it crash?????