Just look at it this way - everyone going to college = huge future demand for tradesmen. I'm an engineer by degree but will encourage my now 7 year old son to attend a trade school if he shows an aptitude and interest, college is often not the guaranteed path to success that many intellectual snobs like to believe. By then supply and demand should have done its job, and skilled tradesmen will be in short supply.

And that is how you turn a labor shortage into wage suppression.

"Oh look, they don't have enough men. We'll have to import workers from an impoverished part of the world and pay them one half the rate."

To get the work back, the Union will have to compete with the imports.
That's been happening in the US for some time now. Looks like that strategy is spreading to Canada.

I am a retired high school shop teacher and 2 of my 3 kids are in the trades. The oldest is a IBEW construction/maintainence electrician. She is a journeyman(woman) usually employed at about $38/hr but goes through short layoffs through the year.
The other is a boy in his 4th year as an apprentice machinist. He has been unable to find work locally because there have been alot of layoffs in local factories and the hungry ex factory workers are competing for his kind of job. He is working in a call centre now at about $12 to pay his bills.
I apprenticed as a mechanic but wouldn,t do it again. Today you need $40000 in tools and the wages go mostly to the shop not the tech.(local techs are getting about $25 with a door rate at $75).
$12 an hour puts you just above the poverty level doesn,t it? How could anyone survive at minimum wage.?
I would like the boy to relocate to Alberta where there is work . He is afraid to do so though as he doesn,t want to live in his car.

There has been a large influx of cash to the Poly-tech where I work/teach to set up a training facility for insulators as there is a huge amount of work now and upcoming in the oil sands processing plants.

At least the government has seen the need and now have a designated destination for those who are apprenticing in this trade. Interesting enough the numbers of apprentices in the welding field have fallen off as they do with every cycle in the economy. There were a large number of them pushed through the system in the last 10 years so perhaps supply caught up with demand.

The trades people that are imported to do the job must be able to pass the qualification exams for the province so that is somewhat limiting for foreign workers. That doesn't stop them from working as "helpers" and actually doing the job in a designated trade.

Knowing that a great number of people here would like to see less government in their lives but perhaps a very good, universal certification of trades in the USA would in the long run be very good for the country.

Your son should see if he can complete his 4th year training and write his qualification exam and Inter Provincial exam. He will have to make contact with the apprenticeship liaison officer to try to make this happen.

PM me and I will give you my work email. I know a few instructors in that department.

I know people in the trades. Most have done very well.

I think to do well in the trades, though, you need to own the company, and leverage by having more than one employee. And, you need to be good not only at your trade, but as a SALESMAN.

In that way, it's like many other businesses. E.g., dentist, accountant, lawyer, etc. To do well in those professions, you need to be a SALESMAN (i.e. get and control clients). Those that do the best are the ones that sell themselves the best, get the most clients, and control the clients.

I also know a lot of people that have done well in the trades without owning the business or being a salesman - they are in the Union. But these are people that got in when the getting was good. I doubt it will be like that for people getting in now. The union concrete, electrical, etc. that I know make really, really good money, but the biggest benefit is the unbelievable pension, at a fairly young age.

If those pension benefits ($$, insurance, etc.) stay in place and are actually paid for the rest of their lives, those are worth millions.

I will say, though, that this Depression has killed some very strong trade businesses (contracting, plumbing, construction etc.) that I know. These are businesses that had been around for 10+ years and were very profitable. But business simply dried up and could not be revived.

I think you are very wrong. Short supply just means more from another country will fill the jobs. They still have trades.

I've always heard that college is first and a trade to fall back on was the strategy.

Now, it doesn't work either way. And before we get to speculating about shortages if labor, realize that 280,000 new jobs have to be created each month for 5 years to get back to 2007 levels.

Interesting article today in the LA Times about the Beverly Hills pawn shop to the wealthy is busier than ever.

This line struck a chord with me.
I was lucky & never had to do this.
A woman I worked with (& had the same job title) told me of her 6-8 months of living in her car. She had an A&P licence after getting out of the Air Force. Jobs were tight at the time, but she did what she had to do to make a living.....and she
was pretty damn good at it. She was tough and defensive....not real popular with a lot of the guys, but salt of the earth to me.

We blue collar types must be willing to "go where the work is"....not too different than most jobs, I think.....and be willing to "switch majors". My apprenticeship was
as a shipwright...tho I started out in boats (yeah, wooden ones). I finished up in QA as a CMM operator for Boeing ( they're constantly looking for good help)....a bit of a winding road but there it is. I won't bore ya'll with details but I can identify with Mike Rowe's grandpa.

I came from the trades. I have my cushy utility job now, but worked hard to get here. I don't want to be out in the freezing rain wallowing around in ankle deep mud anymore, but am prepared to. There's always the risk of privatization, automation, & lay offs. I believe the cream rises to the top. If you work smart, show urgency, act cordial & show up everyday on time, you will advance or get a better offer elsewhere.

I see idiots everywhere that deserve the shyt jobs they have, I can see it in their manner. I got my work ethic preteen in berry fields where you EARN your wages, I learned thoroughness from the Air Force. I think it boils down to what you want & what your willing to go through to get it. I am satisfied with my station in life & am willing to do whatever it takes (legally) to keep it. I still firmly believe in the American Dream.

Interesting thread because it really covers several important economic issues including globalisation, the change in the make-up of the population and the effects of the worldwide economic slowdown + the differences in expectations people have about what their life is going to be. (A tough one).

Some things will never change, i.e. the basics of supply and demand in terms of wages and job opportunity. Supply is hugely determined by the "barrier to entry" of any particular occupation. The market will never be flooded with competent trauma surgeons, for instance. It was the case for a long time in the U.S. that very good-paying jobs existed w/o a very high BTE. This not to discount the importance of skilled trade workers to an economy, (I'm one myself), but any reasonably motivated/able-bodied person who is willing to work and receive training can enter those fields. Obviously some people have more aptitude for skilled trade work than others but those are the ones that are generally drawn to those professions.

For a very long time, (post WW2 until fairly recently), there was a large demand for blue collar workers in the U.S. and the rest of the industrialized world. Wages and benefits were higher than anything the world has ever seen, by a very long shot. We got spoiled with a fantastic lifestyle, (myself included). It is my opinion that there may never be another time like the 20th century in America from here on out in human existence. Certain things will improve, like medical advances, but how will people pay for them? Same with really good quality real estate, only the skilled entrepreneurs or people who were born on 3rd base will be able to live in good neighborhoods w/ decent schools in larger cities. 50 years ago, almost anyone who was not a bum could do the same.

Sorry for the long ramble but I think it applies. There have been studies done that prove that people born white and healthy in the U.S. when my parents were, (1930s), had the easiest and luckiest lives of anyone in the history of the planet. They just missed WW2 service and their entire adult adult lives, (pre-retirement age), were during a time of unprecedented economic expansion and prosperity. There was a shortage of adult males after WW2 to fill every possible position from skilled labor to competent lawyers in firms that wanted badly to expand. RE and healthcare were dirt-cheap, a college education was practically free compared to now and wages were almost constantly rising. Everything was at its easiest in history from getting admitted to Harvard to finding a high-paying construction job. It's all supply/demand. We became very, very spoiled. A blue collar guy could raise a family with a wife at home, send his kids to decent public schools and pay a mortgage. Plus own two cars and maybe even a cabin w/ a boat or two in my part of the country. On wages.

As evidenced on this thread, there are still pockets of really high wage jobs in the U.S. where big projects are happening like oil pipelines, but in general things are going the wrong way for the working man. Anyone who expects to live a 20th century lifestyle as a wage earner in the U.S. is seriously deluded. You need to have a small business that is more clever than the average bear and know how to run it. That's my opinion anyways.

I've been in 'the trades' for about 18 years.
The last 11 I've owned my own business.

There have been ups and downs, no doubt.
My trade ( tile ) is an interesting one.

Some people think the only difference between companies is the price.
Others are looking for a true professional and realize the finished product is either an investment or a liability to their property.

Producing work that is required to be free from defect for 10 years is no small task.

People that hire illegal/cheap/unlicensed usually end up with job problems and future unexpected repair issues that in the long run, cost more than me in the first place.

This used to make me bitter.
I've never gone without.


KT

Hey pals - In the last 25 years, I've had fun watching the change of attitudes in the trades. From the union screwballs, import illegals from Mex and Poland, G.C. running off with the loans, cr@ppy built McMansions with China made materials and the worst of the worst, local building inspectors. If you want to build today, it's your money and you have the right to X out everything on a contract, demand ethical business practices, etc. but don't you dare whine if you allow the above. Pay the excellent and legal workers, and don't take or allow shortcuts. Report poor building inspectors to the commisions, call all agencies to round up and ax the illegals... don't feel guilty.. just do it, trust me ;) Nobody, including the bank is going to be there for you when the house of cards collapses.

In some cases perhaps, there will always be an ample supply of adequate illegals to paint, roof, etc. But in areas where true skill is required, particularly when professional training and licensing is required (HVAC, electrician, plumber, etc) there will always be demand. Especially as the aging workforce retires.

Milt, I recall past threads regarding your challenges and our suggestions as to how you could better improve your business. I know there is some frustration on your part that things aren't how they used to be, but with some flexibility and creativity you can still make it in the trades. I know this is the case because I know many that are doing well. It might not be where you are, it might not be how you are accustomed to doing business, but there is still a place for a skilled craftsman (like yourself) in our country.

As an add to my post,

It would be tough to break into the trades now.

Entry level workers would get low wages and reduced hours.


KT

Let's start with your example of HVAC and plumber. I'll leave electrician out for now since even electrical employees in CA have to carry a license (residential). The first plumber out to the house on any job is no more than an apprentice w/o a journeyman's help or supervision. When he gets in trouble, someone shows up. But they don't care if it takes a long time because they're mostly not on a fixed price. Pretty much all the first line guys are Hispanic and a lot of them have a hard time being understood. They're garbage disposer changers.

HVAC is just as bad. All but the guy filling the A/C system are grunts. They all speak Spanish at work and do pretty much a fundamental job. Nothing unusual about seeing crooked registers and sloppy duct work. You know those restaurants where all the stuff is exposed above and looks like race car headers? Not your typical residential guys.

Now commercial is dead just like residential, so the best workers are working; not necessarily the best paid. That falls right in with my statement that there is nothing new about people who will work harder and longer for less. We've seen that in CA agriculture all along.

"But in areas where true skill is required..." I like this. No, real skill is not required to paint. Most people can do it themselves and get by. I'm a union trained painter that had to leave that business in 1980 because of the cheap labor problem. But when I paint interior work, it's beautiful work that you just don't see anywhere anymore. Most can't even tell. They don't see the [i]lack]/i] of brush strokes, they only see when it's bad.

And then they accept that is how it looks.

No, the art of a trade is lost to cheap flimsy workmanship.

...but there is still a place for a skilled craftsman (like yourself) in our country. No, not really. I think I saw the last of it a few years ago. It's kinda like, "The day the music died."

There was a time when every trade on a job had an interest in seeing the job completed to a fine standard and chided those that weren't stepping up. I know I haven't seen that in years.

My problem is I don't want to work with any of these clowns. I just need a little money to get by while I look around for my next enterprise. I still do the best I know how.

It,s always hard to start an apprenticship. Even when you pay a guy 40% of journeyman rate you have to watch everything they do and teach them at the same time.
A second or 3rd term apprentice can start making their employer money.
Todays young worker often wants big pay increases quickly and their work ethic means they frequently show up late and quit with the first complaint.
Many used to quit an apprenticeship and take high paying assembly line jobs,today that isn,t as easy to do.

Right, but you can't pay a certified welder/machinist 30 bucks an hour for his ability to work, do the job right on his own, and show up every day. Just ask the pragmatists on this thread.

[QUOTE=Zeke;6452970]Right, but you can't pay a certified welder/machinist 30 bucks an hour for his ability to work, do the job right on his own, and show up every day. Just ask the pragmatists on this thread.[/QUOTE
I just had the sagging headliner replaced on the Jeep Cherokee we keep at our house in Florida.
The mobile trim guy that did the work isn,t certified in anything but made $135 in an hour(less about $50 matl). He was saying he has enough work to hire another guy. BUT he can,t keep them despite paying them $9 hr. Maybe that's why?

I wouldn't trust a 9/hr guy to wash the thing. Parking lot labor here gets 12 to 15.

If I thought I could swing a pick adze for 10 hours I'd go make a 120 bucks cash. About 10 swings and I'm done for 2 days. Or there's Vicodin.