Scientific fearless predictions.....

[recycled sixtie]

Today I saw a forecast that the Arctic ice would be gone in ten years. The way I see it is if that is the case then the oceans would be warmer, more sustained hot weather, more moisture in the air, more thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods etc etc. I hope this is not the case. What do you think?

[mikeesik]

Good Bye.
When the Government starts giving out free swimming lessons , be aware.
It's just a matter of time.

[cstreit]

Originally Posted by recycled sixtie

Today I saw a forecast that the Arctic ice would be gone in ten years. The way I see it is if that is the case then the oceans would be warmer, more sustained hot weather, more moisture in the air, more thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods etc etc. I hope this is not the case. What do you think?

Think they would be willing to make a wager on that? I could use to double my retirement fund. Source?

[dad911]

I'm tired of plowing snow. It will save me the trouble of moving south when I retire.

[sc_rufctr]

I predict NOTHING will happen. We'll all be ten years older.

[romad]

Ten years ago they made similar predictions. How old is gore's movie how are those predictions fairing?

[stomachmonkey]

The Arctic cap is a big chunk of floating ice.

Meaning its already displacing the oceans waters.

If it melts nothing changes.

Put another way, fill a glass with ice, then fill it with water.

Does the glass overflow as the ice melts?

[sjf911]

The real risk is if there is sufficient warming to melt the permafrost and warm the oceans to the point of mass release of methane hydrate stores. There is good indication that this played a major role in the end Permian mother of all extinction events.

[nota]

yes arctic ice floats

BUT

it is thinner and covers less area now then ever before

the fabled northwest passage is opening soon ice breakers will not be needed

once the ocean is ice free or greatly reduced the land glaciers will melt too
that will raise sea levels and quickly

remember the sun is in a near minimum in spots and output this cycle
next cycle may be weaker too
BUT temps are still going up
nobody expected a solar reduction in making predictions

the simple fact that warming is not as quick as predicted
is not evidence of no warming or bad predictions
a normal solar output level was the basis of the projected data
with less solar output a reduction in temps should be expected
BUT we currently have NO reduction just slower warming
that alone is validation of global warming

[Rick Lee]

There are far more serious and inevitable changes going on that will destroy us. The Earth's polarity changes, the moon is getting farther away and that caldera underneath Yellowstone is 40k yrs. overdue to blow. Every one of these 100% will happen. Not a matter of if, but when.

[stomachmonkey]

Originally Posted by nota

...the land glaciers will melt too
that will raise sea levels and quickly....

Yes, if greenland melts a lot of stuff will be under water.

[dhoward]

Originally Posted by nota

yes arctic ice floats

Snipped...

remember the sun is in a near minimum in spots and output this cycle
next cycle may be weaker too
BUT temps are still going up
nobody expected a solar reduction in making predictions

Not quite.

[NY65912]

I think the bigger outcome of the ice melting may be the introduction of a helluva lot of fresh water into the oceans. Perhaps certain species of plankton or algae will be upset by this thereby upsetting the apple cart of oceanic life?

[Joeaksa]

Originally Posted by Rick Lee

There are far more serious and inevitable changes going on that will destroy us. The Earth's polarity changes, the moon is getting farther away and that caldera underneath Yellowstone is 40k yrs. overdue to blow. Every one of these 100% will happen. Not a matter of if, but when.

These above are far more worry-some to me than the polar ice cap melting.

As well look at the earthquake/volcano activity around the Pacific Rim the last w3-4 years, much more active than usual.

[Moses]

Global warming generally leads to increased species diversity.

There have been two catastrophic climate related events that led to mass extinctions. Both were associated with ice ages.

In any event, at some point this planet will shake us off like a bad case of fleas. Oh well.

[RWebb]

Originally Posted by sjf911

The real risk is if there is sufficient warming to melt the permafrost and warm the oceans to the point of mass release of methane hydrate stores. There is good indication that this played a major role in the end Permian mother of all extinction events.

Exactly.

And the Atlantic conveyor current will be interrupted, meaning severe climatic problems in Europe. If you think the current economic problems in Europe are something, I promise you this is just a minor blip in comparison.

[RWebb]

Originally Posted by Moses

Global warming generally leads to increased species diversity.

There have been two catastrophic climate related events that led to mass extinctions. Both were associated with ice ages.

In any event, at some point this planet will shake us off like a bad case of fleas. Oh well.

The first premise is an odd one -- I am curious as to where you read that.

More to the point, the sort of rapid climatic change we are now experiencing is leading to massive extinction rates.

[Moses]

Originally Posted by RWebb

The first premise is an odd one -- I am curious as to where you read that.

It's always been like that. Equatorial climes have dramatically greater species diversity than northern climes.

[RWebb]

you are conflating two different phenomena, not to mention differing time scales

you can read an in-depth analysis of 7 different hypotheses for the gradient in species diversity in Eric Pianka's ecology textbook, publ'd circa 1975

[Crowbob]

Originally Posted by Rick Lee

There are far more serious and inevitable changes going on that will destroy us. The Earth's polarity changes, the moon is getting farther away and that caldera underneath Yellowstone is 40k yrs. overdue to blow. Every one of these 100% will happen. Not a matter of if, but when.

Waitaiminute! Waitaminite! What about meteors? What about a giant meteor?