How does the 911 bubble work?

[cockerpunk]

kicking myself for not buying the 930 i was looking at instead of my 951 4 years ago. they wanted something in the high 20s for it ...

not that i dislike my 951, just love to have a car pay for itself for once!



waiting on aircooled 911s to come back down in value. if not, my next will be a 997.2 C2S, but love to see the bubble pop here soon. the muscle car bubble has popped, maybe in another 5 or 10 the 911 one will too.

[Bill Douglas]

Originally Posted by sc_rufctr

Good luck finding a decent one in Aus.

Or here


In about year 2000 I thought about going to South Africa and buying one (some) as they were a rand a dozen. But a friend who had recently been said the dreaded English had already invaded and bought them all up.

[GG Allin]

I unloaded my RS America in 2007 thinking a Salvage Title car was not worth keeping. It was worth about 1/2 of what a similar condition non salvage RSA was worth. Today, it's probably worth about 1/2 of what a similar condition non salvage RSA is worth. Kinda wish I still had it. Not necessarily because of the value, but because it's getting to the point where I may never own one again because of the prices. A couple short years ago I though I had plenty of time to be picky.

I recently stumbled upon this picture of it on the local PCA website.

[Brian in VA]

I don't think it'll pop like the muscle cars. Those were all pretty bad cars, and prices went way up due to nostalgia / demand. But Ferraris and Lambos are going to keep climbing, and they'll pull Porsches up along with them. If you are wealthy, but can't drop 2 mill on a car, a $150k 911 looks like an affordable but fun buy that's still got some "prestige".

[McLovin]

2 things about bubbles, 100% of the time:

1. During the bubble, everyone says it won't pop. (Usually on the logic that "they're not making it any more," i.e., "they're not making real estate any more," etc.)

2. They always pop.

Its weird how people never learn from history. This time is no different.

[McLovin]

Any time any thing or asset class doubles, triples or quads in a few years after many years of stability, it's always a bubble and it always pops, history shows that to be true 100% of the time.

[nota]

I can get a real good deal on tulip bulbs

[aigel]

Originally Posted by cockerpunk

kicking myself for not buying the 930 i was looking at instead of my 951 4 years ago. they wanted something in the high 20s for it ...

When I bought my 993 the 80s 930s were going for the same money and I was thinking about them too ... I figured a N/A car with essentially the same performance was the better bet. And it was, for performance, reliability, air conditioning etc. - just not for collector value. I have no sore feelings. Life has a lot of these "missed opportunities" - stock market, lottery, real estate etc. etc.

G

[aigel]

Originally Posted by McLovin

2 things about bubbles, 100% of the time:

1. During the bubble, everyone says it won't pop. (Usually on the logic that "they're not making it any more," i.e., "they're not making real estate any more," etc.)

2. They always pop.

Its weird how people never learn from history. This time is no different.

What happens often is that they don't come back to pre-bubble levels though ...

[Noah930]

Originally Posted by look 171

Hey you used to daily drive yours, right? I might have seen your car at the new years drive a few years back. Its really clean and there aren't too many blue 930s out. What do you think your 930's worth? I have a an 88 930 cab with 45k miles and a hot motor. Other then that, its pretty damn clean. It fun to find out what I have here, not that I will ever sell it.

DD'd my car for about a year. But I do a lot of miles and park in crowded lots filled with lotsa not-so-nice cars, so I now DD a Civic. It's less painful when the Civic gets a door ding.

Most guys on the turbo forum think it's nuts, too. We're pre-bubble owners for the most part, so while Haggerty might say our cars are worth $100K, most of us are of the opinion that if someone shows up on our doorsteps with a suitcase of that money, the car is theirs.

Your 930 is going to be worth a bit more, as it's an '89 (most desirable year due to the 5-speed) and a cab. I've noticed that once a car hits collector status, cabs seem to command slightly more than (or the same value as) a coupe. Targas usually a little less. So an '89 930 cab is just about the pinnacle of the design.

In contrast, I've noticed that for 993s and 964s, the appreciation is mostly in the coupes. The cabs and targas are worth less (than coupes) right now. So maybe the 911 to buy for appreciation value is a 993 cab. They go for about $40K. The coupes are $10-20K more, and some day those cabs will be worth as much (if not more) than the coupes. My $0.02: right now, the 964/993 market is being driven by enthusiasts, still. Richer enthusiasts, but enthusiasts nonetheless. 911 guys like to drive their cars. So a 911 coupe is a purer sporting/racing driving experience than a cab or targa (or at least that's the perception). So 964 and 993 coupes are worth the most (for their respective generations), and the cabs and targas lag behind. At some point, collectors will step in and then the cabs will catch up to the coupes in value. Try finding a 964 C2 coupe in manual. They don't exist on the market. But if you want a 964 cab in 4WD with a Tiptronic (the least desirable 964 to track), those can be had all day long...right now.

[DanielDudley]

Originally Posted by McLovin

Any time any thing or asset class doubles, triples or quads in a few years after many years of stability, it's always a bubble and it always pops, history shows that to be true 100% of the time.

That may be, but 911 prices were suppressed for a few years. Not realistically priced, but suppressed. People needed money, and were letting them go cheap. Things would have to be pretty bad to see 10K runners again, and people who can hang on aren't going to sell really nice cars when times are like that.

Some people will always buy high and sell low. Others will never sell low, even if they bought high and prices dropped. Are people paying too much for the wrong cars now that good cars are worth more ? Yes. Are good cars really worth more over the long haul ? Sure, the really good ones are. Prices right now would be the only thing shaking them out of the trees. If things get bad again, you can believe the good ones will hang on the vine again, and not come out for sale until the time is right.

Prices for the best IB cars never really dropped, even through the recession. Maybe they didn't go up, but they didn't really drop either. The turbos were Icons in the day, and cool as heck now. The people I work for have real funds and vast appetites. The value graph may jog up and down over time, but the overall picture is ever upward. Again, there were those who thrived through this whole period. This is their time, and these are their cars.

[DanielDudley]

Originally Posted by aigel

What happens often is that they don't come back to pre-bubble levels though ...

Only if you lose patience. 993s are great cars. Truly great cars. But you see pictures of Steve McQueen smoking a cigarette next to a 930. Right now that trumps 993 goodness.

Right now. You shouldn't buy these cars as an investment anyway. Buy what you like, enjoy it, and remain positive. Ultimately it is the guys who have their cars forever who benefit most and wind up selling at the right time. Because those guys would never sell for short money anyway, as their cars are worth more to them than that.

[Westy]

Originally Posted by nota

I can get a real good deal on tulip bulbs

Not yet. The demand will increase exponentially! Try Holland or Denmark is my guess.

[onewhippedpuppy]

Originally Posted by McLovin

2 things about bubbles, 100% of the time:

1. During the bubble, everyone says it won't pop. (Usually on the logic that "they're not making it any more," i.e., "they're not making real estate any more," etc.)

2. They always pop.

Its weird how people never learn from history. This time is no different.

Totally true, but it may be decades from now and the prices will never return to their pre-bubble state. A driver longhood will never be $5k again.

[jwasbury]

Originally Posted by Noah930

Haggerty's valuation guide released a couple months ago claimed a grade 3 car to be worth about $100K.

I just sold my '79 930 yesterday. It was listed on the classifieds here for a month, but eventually found my buyer through eBay. I have a friend who sold his '86 a couple weeks back. Exceptional condition low mileage car (~25k miles), but short of "Hagerty money" No doubt the 930s have appreciated, but my personal experience is that Hagerty numbers are inflated. Benefits them as they can sell more insurance.

Their grading system is pretty subjective as well. Scale of 1-4 with 1 being concours perfect. 4 is the bottom, so will include total roaches and basket cases. With that being the scale. Hagerty says that a #4 '78-'79 930 is $90k. Look no further than eBay to see what decent looking driver quality (not roaches) sell for. A very recent 100k mile '78 930 broke into the low $70's. I'd call that car a #3 personally - complete, good history, only "problem" is 100k miles on the odo. Hagerty says a #3 '78-'79 930 is $130k. I say: "good luck with that"

Interestingly, I had my car insured with them and when I called to let them know I no longer needed coverage they asked me if I would disclose what I sold the car for and if they could use that data for their valuation tools. I agreed...doing my part to help with the 'bubble' here

[cashflyer]

Originally Posted by Shaun 84 Targa

Who is spending $25K to $30K on an SC? Who is the buyer? How many of them are there? Are they happy with their purchase after the fact?

Puzzled how this works.

Shaun.... I usually don't divulge secrets like this, out of fear of what it could mean for me. But since you are a nice guy, here is the answer.....

Anything I own is worth squat when I put it up for sale. This ensures, no matter how much I paid or how well I have maintained it, I will always lose money on a sale. Then, a matter of weeks or months after the sale, prices start to climb. Almost always, at a rate that is so fast that I will never again be able to own whatever it was.

I sold my 1967 Plymouth Barracuda, I got $700 for it. Not a show car by any means, but a rust and accident free daily driver. With a big block. A year or so later, the same condition car was bringing $10k at the swap meets.

About 8 years ago I sold a very restorable long-hood, along with a parts car (totaled), for $3500. I even consulted with some experts here before the sale, and all told me that the cost to restore one exceeded their value. Look at where they are now.

When I sold my SC in 2013, I lost $2000 in spite of throwing in a lot of spare items that I had collected during my ownership. That same car right now is way out of my budget.

So, the secret is that if I own something similar to what you own, just talk me into selling it.

[onewhippedpuppy]

Congrats Jacob! Is it 996TT time?

[Noah930]

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy

Congrats Jacob! Is it 996TT time?

Christ. Do you still have that car? Please sell it to kill all temptation I have to buy it.

[nvr2mny]

Well, I'll chime in at the risk of much ridicule. I bought an '83SC Cab last year (17k orig miles/all docs) for what some considered stupid (I'm sure some still do) money. Do a search and you'll find it. Bought strictly as an occasionally fun "investment". Now, it's by no means a DD, nor was it meant to be, as is the intent I'm sure of the OP here. So, this "exception" has proven to be fun AND (to date) a good investment. A certain seller of high end P-cars on the east coast has an identical SC CAB to ours (15k orig miles) for almost 50% more than what we paid a year ago. Again, these are exceptions at these price levels, but good SC's (IMHO) are worth 25-30 all day long in today's world. Sure, there may be a correction, IF, that's the right word, but as many think here, I don't think to levels of 5+ years ago.

[look 171]

Originally Posted by Noah930

DD'd my car for about a year. But I do a lot of miles and park in crowded lots filled with lotsa not-so-nice cars, so I now DD a Civic. It's less painful when the Civic gets a door ding.

Most guys on the turbo forum think it's nuts, too. We're pre-bubble owners for the most part, so while Haggerty might say our cars are worth $100K, most of us are of the opinion that if someone shows up on our doorsteps with a suitcase of that money, the car is theirs.

Your 930 is going to be worth a bit more, as it's an '89 (most desirable year due to the 5-speed) and a cab. I've noticed that once a car hits collector status, cabs seem to command slightly more than (or the same value as) a coupe. Targas usually a little less. So an '89 930 cab is just about the pinnacle of the design.

In contrast, I've noticed that for 993s and 964s, the appreciation is mostly in the coupes. The cabs and targas are worth less (than coupes) right now. So maybe the 911 to buy for appreciation value is a 993 cab. They go for about $40K. The coupes are $10-20K more, and some day those cabs will be worth as much (if not more) than the coupes. My $0.02: right now, the 964/993 market is being driven by enthusiasts, still. Richer enthusiasts, but enthusiasts nonetheless. 911 guys like to drive their cars. So a 911 coupe is a purer sporting/racing driving experience than a cab or targa (or at least that's the perception). So 964 and 993 coupes are worth the most (for their respective generations), and the cabs and targas lag behind. At some point, collectors will step in and then the cabs will catch up to the coupes in value. Try finding a 964 C2 coupe in manual. They don't exist on the market. But if you want a 964 cab in 4WD with a Tiptronic (the least desirable 964 to track), those can be had all day long...right now.

its an 88 factory cab, not 89 with the G50/50. That would have been nice, but hey the four speed isn't too bad since I changed out the R/P. When I bought this car, I didn't know much about Porsches especially turbos and I hate cabs, but once I drove this car and pressed the gas pedal with 460hp spinning that back wheel, I had to have it.

Hey did you ever get the 996 or 7 turbo?