How does the 911 bubble work?

[onewhippedpuppy]

Originally Posted by Noah930

Christ. Do you still have that car? Please sell it to kill all temptation I have to buy it.

I think he's looking for a Turbo S cab, so I still have my coupe just for you.

[jwasbury]

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy

Congrats Jacob! Is it 996TT time?

Thanks Matt. I bought a 2009 997 Turbo Cab, midnight blue over sand beige. 22k miles, manual trans, CPO car. The '05 turbo S cab I was looking at got sold wholesale before I could complete a purchase.

[onewhippedpuppy]

Originally Posted by jwasbury

Thanks Matt. I bought a 2009 997 Turbo Cab, midnight blue over sand beige. 22k miles, manual trans, CPO car. The '05 turbo S cab I was looking at got sold wholesale before I could complete a purchase.

Very nice.

[Rick V]

The bubble may pop but the prices for the air cooled cars will always creep upward and the numbers become fewer and fewer each year due to accidents and such.
I bought my SC ten years ago for what was considered a high price but it was a totally original car including the paint, chain tensioners and lack of pop-off valve. It was never a daily driver and lived as a garage queen and penial extension for the first two owners, it still remains a garage queen but I hammer the crap out of it when she comes out. I have seen three times the amount of money I paid for her land on her hood and that isn't enough to buy her.
a 30K SC, sure I can see it, the price on mine is 40K, but she really isn't for sale and I want the price five years from now if she were to go.
I should mention I did not buy my car as an investment, I bought her because I always wanted one and I had the cash, so I bought. It was just dumb luck and good timing on my part that I will never lose money on her short of some catastrophe.

[tabs]

No bubble on the S Long Hoods...15000 S LH's were built over a 7 year period over 42 years ago. Survival rate is relatively low on a car with world wide appeal that is of an iconic design.

What took them so long is a mystery? The Aircooled cars have been discontinued for over 15 years, they have all been depreciated out and are now achieving collectors status as something unique of a by gone era.

Prices will plateau at some point and hang, but will never go back. The days of a cheap 911 are gone. FINALLY!

[onewhippedpuppy]

For those hand wringing about the $25k SC, answer me this - what collector car better combines iconic styling, legacy, reliability, fun, and usability by modern standards for $25k? I certainly can't think of one.

I don't like the new 911 prices because it makes them less accessible to me, but I definitely get it. When I bought my first 911 I remember being shocked how affordable they were. I think today's prices much more accurately reflect just how great they really are. Besides, let's face facts, $25k is pocket change when buying a car in 2015. To cheapskates like me it's a lot of money, but you can easily spend $30k on a new compact economy car.

[GG Allin]

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy

For those hand wringing about the $25k SC, answer me this - what collector car better combines iconic styling, legacy, reliability, fun, and usability by modern standards for $25k? I certainly can't think of one.

E36 M3 has most of that for less than half of $25k. I don't see those ever increasing in value.

[Rick V]

E30 M3 is where the BMW market is, really anything from 92 on from them is just stale in terms of price, and will mostly stay that way because they cut a ton of corners, poor interiors are one of the big killers, that is across the board for them, not just the 3 series, although I do love me an E38

[GG Allin]

Originally Posted by Rick V

E30 M3 is where the BMW market is, really anything from 92 on from them is just stale in terms of price, and will mostly stay that way because they cut a ton of corners, poor interiors are one of the big killers, that is across the board for them, not just the 3 series, although I do love me an E38

The '95 M3 Lightweights have been fetching big money, but those are odd balls, only about 100 made.

[manbridge 74]

I can think of certain items that transcend all the bubble talk. Art is one of them. Someone recently dropped around 140 MILLION USD on a painting.

I would submit that as long as people just like to look at it, the 911 might be more art than car to some.

Old high end watches might also be similar..... crude at keeping time but they are big bucks.

[McLovin]

Show me any painting where people are paying millions, AND 150,000+ of the painting was made, and I'll agree with that analogy.

There's a lot of air cooled 911s made. I don't know the numbers off hand, but it must be 150K, 200K or more (I think the SC alone was close to 60,000).

The prices at the top right now are not being driven by enthusiast, but by speculators.

Once they flee the scene (and they always eventually do), prices will decline, esp. for the larger production models.

Demand is never going to be as high as it is now (the demographic for the 911 is 45-55 years old right now, prime buying years), in the next 5 years and ahead demand will do nothing but shrink.

[BRPORSCHE]

This is how the bubble works. Every time I have the money to buy one... They just increase in price.

[porsche4life]

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy

I think he's looking for a Turbo S cab, so I still have my coupe just for you.

I'll be in OK for the fourth, need me to relocate it closer to him?

[Shaun @ Tru6]

close to 59,000 SCs

Originally Posted by McLovin

Show me any painting where people are paying millions, AND 150,000+ of the painting was made, and I'll agree with that analogy.

There's a lot of air cooled 911s made. I don't know the numbers off hand, but it must be 150K, 200K or more (I think the SC alone was close to 60,000).

The prices at the top right now are not being driven by enthusiast, but by speculators.

Once they flee the scene (and they always eventually do), prices will decline, esp. for the larger production models.

Demand is never going to be as high as it is now (the demographic for the 911 is 45-55 years old right now, prime buying years), in the next 5 years and ahead demand will do nothing but shrink.

[manbridge 74]

Originally Posted by McLovin

Show me any painting where people are paying millions, AND 150,000+ of the painting was made, and I'll agree with that analogy.

There's a lot of air cooled 911s made. I don't know the numbers off hand, but it must be 150K, 200K or more (I think the SC alone was close to 60,000).

The prices at the top right now are not being driven by enthusiast, but by speculators.

Once they flee the scene (and they always eventually do), prices will decline, esp. for the larger production models.

Demand is never going to be as high as it is now (the demographic for the 911 is 45-55 years old right now, prime buying years), in the next 5 years and ahead demand will do nothing but shrink.

I believe my analogy still holds. A lot of art sells for less but is still relatively expensive for something that is not a need but a want.

I do agree with speculators driving market but I doubt that the 911 market will drop much in the next 5 years short of a bad economic turn.

But that is what is fun about predicting! Hope to revisit this thread and see...

[onewhippedpuppy]

Originally Posted by GG Allin

E36 M3 has most of that for less than half of $25k. I don't see those ever increasing in value.

LOLOLOLOL!

It has the performance and practicality, I'll give you that. Of course a V6 powered Honda Accord does as well. But there's nothing special about either.

[cashflyer]

[GH85Carrera]

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy

I think today's prices much more accurately reflect just how great they really are. Besides, let's face facts, $25k is pocket change when buying a car in 2015. To cheapskates like me it's a lot of money, but you can easily spend $30k on a new compact economy car.

Just last week I went to a local Auto-Max with a friend. He inherited a Honda appliance and did not want to waste the time or exert the effort to sell it himself. We had to hang out for 30 minutes while they evaluated the car so we wonder around. They offered $15.5K for the Honda and he sold to for that. Done deal.

They had a nice looking 2014 pickup on the showroom. It was 59K! For a PICKUP?? They had a few nicer cars that were all staggering amounts to me. The last car I bought was my Carrera and that was 20 years ago. I was just floored how expensive the vehicles were. It made my 911 sound pretty inexpensive. It made me happy to realize every car I saw was going down in value but my 911 was going up.

[onewhippedpuppy]

The average cost of a new car sold in America is $33,560. Makes a lot of used 911s seem reasonable, even with the price increases.

[GH85Carrera]

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy

The average cost of a new car sold in America is $33,560. Makes a lot of used 911s seem reasonable, even with the price increases.

Wow. So if we go with a nice Cayman S for 45K it is close to a grand per month for 4 years.

Yep, I sure like my paid for old cars. I have not had a car payment in this millennium.