Prediction about the Porsche Model Line

[CJFusco]

This popped into my head late last night, and I feel as though it makes a lot of logical sense, although I have no evidence to back it up other than evidence that's circumstantial.

Prediction: within the next five years, Porsche will begin building and selling a new entry-level, open-topped sports car priced below and placed in terms of performance below the Boxster, and it will be called the 550.

Hear me out.

There have been rumors of a new "entry-level" Porsche for years, although Porsche denies it.

Lately, it's become clear that Porsche is reconfiguring the model name for the Boxster/Cayman cars in order to strengthen their historical lineage and to make the model nomenclature match that of the 911. As we know, "911" is the name of the model and has nothing to do with the internal designation of the car; the current car is called 991.2, 10 years ago it was the 997, etc., but to most of the world the car has simply been the "911", a single model that's been developed through evolution since 1964.

It looked like the model nomenclature for the 911 was going to be unique within the Porsche line, as the company has been moving away from numerical designations ("944", "928," etc.) to model names ("Panamera," "Cayenne," etc.) for every model line except the 911. For whatever reason -- to strengthen the historical roots? To make things less confusing? -- Porsche has now decided to make the Boxster/Cayman line's designation one that's under a numerical designation in order to match that of the 911s. So now, just as we have a 911 Carrera, 911 Targa, 911 Carrera 4S, 911 GT3, etc., we will now have a Porsche 718 Boxster, 718 Cayman, 718 Spyder (for the car previously called the "Boxster Spyder") and 718 GT4 (for the car previously called the Cayman GT4).

Choosing the 718 designation for the Boxster/Cayman line is an interesting move. It makes sense to pick a number that is lower than that of the 911, and the "7" series being "lower" than the "9" series is a move that mimics what is done by BMW, Audi, etc. But why "718" and not, say, 550? The 550 is a much more famous car, and the original launch for the Boxster way back in the 1990s invoked the 550 more than any other car.

Here's a few theories: the 718 was offered as both a coupe and a roadster. This fits nicely with the products being offered by Porsche, as the 718 will give buyers the choice between Boxster, Spyder, Cayman, or hard-core GT4 variants.

The "18" of "718" also creates a link between the model line and that of the 918 Spyder, a supercar which shares a number of visual cues with the 981 model cars, while the "7" still places it clearly "lower" than the "9" of the 918.

But it also leaves an opening for Porsche to bring back another historic numeric designation: the 550.

The new 718 line will also have a brand-new engine: a turbocharged flat-four (except for the GT4 and Spyder, perhaps?), which makes one wonder if there's room below the 718 line for a naturally-aspirated flat-four making somewhere in the neighborhood of 200-250hp (comparable to the first generation of Boxster).

As the Boxster becomes the 718 Boxster and moves UPMARKET of the Cayman (as it only makes sense to price the cabriolet version of a car above the coupe, now that we're officially acknowledging that they're the same car), will the long-predicted entry-level roadster become a reality? It makes sense in terms of model pricing and even numerically:

550 Roadster -- $40K
718 Cayman -- $50K
718 Boxster -- $55K
718 Spyder -- $60K
911 Carrera -- $70K
911 Carrera Cabriolet -- $75K
911 Carrera S -- $80K
911 Carrera S Cabriolet -- $85K
918 Spyder -- significantly more expensive
etc.

Those prices are only examples of how the model lines might be structured; I have no idea what the actual pricing might be, other than that Porsche is definitely pricing the Boxster above the Cayman with the new 718 designation.

Anyhow, that's just my theory/prediction. Interested to hear what you think.

[tabs]

It would be real nice if Porsche returned to the simple no frills lite weight cars that the 550, 356 and early 911's were. In other words a drivers car.

BTW you made a good analysis.

[onewhippedpuppy]

Nice analysis. I like the theme but you also have to take into account the rest of VAG. A $40k Porsche would likely cost Audi sales of the TT. You also have to consider at what point they start diluting their position of Porsche as a premium brand, because status is a big factor for many new Porsche buyers. It also flies in the face of modern special edition cars, where simple/lightweight costs MORE money, not less. If they want to do a simple "back to basics" sports car, why not keep selling Boxster Spyders and Cayman GT4s at a premium?

With that said, I would love to see it happen. Much of the same reason why I find the new Miata appealing. Simple, lightweight, fun.

[wdfifteen]

Interesting analysis.
But, when has it ever worked out for a high-end brand to sell an entry level car?
The 914 is a fun car, but what did it do for Porsche?
The 924 was the Cadillac Cimarron of Porsches.
Speaking of the Cadillac Cimarron. How did that work out for Caddy?
I don't see the incentive for Porsche to have an entry level car in the lineup.

[KNS]

I hope you're right but...

Every time they announce plans to build a more affordable, back to basics sports car the idea later gets axed. They usually say they don't want to confuse traditional buyers who see Porsche as a premium, luxury car brand. They always emphasize an entry level Porsche is a used Porsche.

Just like BMW has done, they see that there is more profit in high-end models (how many M cars are there now?).

[daepp]

Great analysis.

I have heard for years that offering a low-priced entry level car will hurt rather than help our favorite marque. I have not liked hearing this, but many examples were given that seemed to me to back up this claim. I hope they were wrong and you are right!

With respect to an entry level Porsche, my thoughts go to their 09-11 offering. I would love for them to offer a kind-of-affordable, very stripped down car, good for everyday driving (esp if you're young) and also able to have fun with on the track. But my understanding of the Boxster Spyder is that, while it was available without air or audio, they almost all got the creature comforts.

Further, it wasn't all that much lighter than the Boxster.

To me, it would look like a cross between a bottom-of-the-line Lotus offering from the last decade, with styling cues linked to the 550. And weigh in at around 2000 - 2200 lbs. A quick check of the interwebs shows 8 cars in production right now under 2400lbs. With some of composites etc available now surely Porsche could do better than the (IIRC) 3000 lb Spyder, no? Is that even possible with 21st century German safety requirements? I don't know.

I'm curious what others think??

[cockerpunk]

Originally Posted by tabs

It would be real nice if Porsche returned to the simple no frills lite weight cars that the 550, 356 and early 911's were. In other words a drivers car.

BTW you made a good analysis.

honastly, even a lightweight FR at this point from porsche for the low end would be great. great parts binning with audi, but with porsche touch.

cause currently the FRS/BRZ in my mind kill the boxster/cayman. so much cheaper and more useful, and any performance detriment is easily reminded.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by tabs

It would be real nice if Porsche returned to the simple no frills lite weight cars that the 550, 356 and early 911's were. In other words a drivers car.

The 550 wasn't a driver's car it was a race car. 356 coupes and cabriolets were relatively cushy as sports cars go, with roll up windows, padded tops, sound insulation, etc. Max Hoffman had to talk Porsche into stripping them down to make a car to compete with bare bones British and Italian sports cars. The result was the Speedster, which was not popular and sold in relatively low numbers.

[onewhippedpuppy]

Originally Posted by cockerpunk

honastly, even a lightweight FR at this point from porsche for the low end would be great. great parts binning with audi, but with porsche touch.

cause currently the FRS/BRZ in my mind kill the boxster/cayman. so much cheaper and more useful, and any performance detriment is easily reminded.

FRS/BRZ aren't even in the same ballpark as Boxster/Cayman. Not even close. Similar money, a used 987 will still destroy the twins in every measurable way.

Back to the weight discussion, the new Miata is a little over 2300 lbs without any advanced materials. It's easy to imagine a more expensive lightweight Porsche as a 2000 lb car, but I just don't see it being made.

[cockerpunk]

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy

FRS/BRZ aren't even in the same ballpark as Boxster/Cayman. Not even close. Similar money, a used 987 will still destroy the twins in every measurable way.

Back to the weight discussion, the new Miata is a little over 2300 lbs without any advanced materials. It's easy to imagine a more expensive lightweight Porsche as a 2000 lb car, but I just don't see it being made.

the S might have a chance, but the base models no question. the twins kick the crap out of them. the twins are way more pure a driving experience, AND more practical, and less than half the cost, and for the S models its even worse.

one thing is for certain, if there is a "baby" boxster coming, then it will be slower than the current non-S.

and that will be a big mistake.

lets face it: the boxster is a fat pig now a days.

[Eric 951]

Originally Posted by wdfifteen

Interesting analysis.
But, when has it ever worked out for a high-end brand to sell an entry level car?
The 914 is a fun car, but what did it do for Porsche?
The 924 was the Cadillac Cimarron of Porsches.
Speaking of the Cadillac Cimarron. How did that work out for Caddy?
I don't see the incentive for Porsche to have an entry level car in the lineup.

The 924 begat the 944(which saved Porsches' bacon in the 80s) and the superb 951. And they sold the first gen 924 from 76-82, then the much-improved 924S.

Calling the 924 the Cimarron of Porsche is inaccurate.

I miss the days when Porsche actually had a diverse line-up--In my opinion,the Boxster, Cayman, and 911 share too many styling cues. A line-up similar to the 80's cars would be great--924S, 944(base, S2, turbo and cab) , the 911 variants, and the 928--something for everyone.

[rcooled]

Hard-core enthusiasts have been yearning for light, nimble, no-frills sports cars from manufacturers like Porsche for quite a long time. Unfortunately, the vast majority of people buying premium brands these days really don't care that much about performance. They are people of sufficient means to buy $70K+ cars and they're more interested in the status and comfort that driving a high-end car/SUV affords, as opposed to exploring it's limits on a challenging road or at a track day. Porsche knows who it's current customers are and what's expected of their offerings...there's just not much economic incentive for them to sell a bare-bones sports car. As already mentioned, it considers an entry-level Porsche to be a used one. Ferrari has exactly the same mindset. The lower end of the market is already overflowing with competent vehicles. Brands like Porsche will continue to move up-market, not down, with high-margin vehicles like the Carrera S, Panamera and Cayenne Turbo.

[CJFusco]

Thanks for the kind words. Yes, I see what you're saying about Porsche saying there won't be an entry-level model, but they've also insisted that the Cayman will NEVER be allowed to out-perform any 911... and lo and behold, now we have the GT4...

BTW, I'm still a little iffy on how Porsche fits into the VW family, but unless I'm not mistaken, Porsche isn't technically "owned" by VW. Isn't the arrangement something like: VW owns a majority share of Porsche but Porsche also owns a plurality of VW stock, so although Porsche isn't technically OWNED by VW, the two companies are inextricably intertwined. That's why you often see cooperative platforms, but also why they often compete directly with one another (e.g. at LeMans). Therefore, a baby-Boxster wouldn't undermine the TT after all.

Unless I'm totally misunderstanding the business ins-and-outs of it. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[Nickshu]

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy

Nice analysis. I like the theme but you also have to take into account the rest of VAG. A $40k Porsche would likely cost Audi sales of the TT. You also have to consider at what point they start diluting their position of Porsche as a premium brand, because status is a big factor for many new Porsche buyers.

Pretty much. VAG is now the General Motors of Europe. It's all about shared platforms now. Porsche knows they will sell many more cars to "lay people" if they make Porsche an upscale brand from Audi. I believe the future will basically be VW=Chevy, Audi=Buick, Porsche=Cadillac. Not that Chevy/Buick/Cadillac aren't building some good cars now, because they are...but the soul of anything unique has been gutted. Then Porsche will build the occasional limited production super-duper-hyper car to keep their technological edge and maintain their engineering dept, like the 918 and the GT, but these will be cars will be untouchable for even 99% of us old-school Porsche enthusiasts, or at the very least unobtainable.

Most people here don't want to hear this but it's inevitable. No niche automaker in the history of cars has ever stayed a niche automaker. They either flounder and die out, or grow into what purists wanted them to never become. Bummer.....being profitable is so overrated!

[Scott R]

I really like your list, and while I'm not interested in any "entry level" models I think your pricing on the 911 is wishful thinking (for me anyway). I full expect my next 911 to be 115k in or around 2017 1/2.

[Por_sha911]

The thought process on a new entry level is well reasoned out. My greatest concern is that it seems to me that
"form follows function" has been replaced by
form follows marketing to the more general public to sell more cars.
As such, Porsche will only build an entry level car if they think it adds to the profit margin.

[Nickshu]

Originally Posted by Por_sha911

The thought process on a new entry level is well reasoned out. My greatest concern is that it seems to me that
"form follows function" has been replaced by
form follows marketing to the more general public to sell more cars.
As such, Porsche will only build an entry level car if they think it adds to the profit margin.

I don't think Porsche needs an entry level car. They have VW and Audi for that purpose. BMW and Mercedes need entry level cars b/c they don't have sister companies building cheaper cars on the same platform. Remember the Cadillac Cimarron? Same situation as Porsche is in now and that car went over very poorly.

[masraum]

I'm definitely waiting for the release of the 917!!

(and a big raise)

[Scott R]

Originally Posted by Nickshu

I don't think Porsche needs an entry level car. They have VW and Audi for that purpose. BMW and Mercedes need entry level cars b/c they don't have sister companies building cheaper cars on the same platform. Remember the Cadillac Cimarron? Same situation as Porsche is in now and that car went over very poorly.

X-body. That was a demon of car to work on, I still have nightmares.

[mattdavis11]

Porsche is going to have to roll back the clock. They haven't produced anything eye appealing since the early 90's. When the 968 came out, everything else went in the crapper too.

Just my opinion.