A Meter of Rain

[Crowbob]

Originally Posted by javadog

Well, yes and no.

Does he use LIFO or FIFO?

Does he refill his tanks right before the supply comes back on line and prices fall again? A store that doesn't sell a huge volume might have more exposure.

Without getting into a fight or the minutia of accounting practices save for this universal bottom line:

The only way a gas retailer can lose is if nobody buys his gas which ain't gonna happen.

[masraum]

Originally Posted by Neilk

Co-worker lives in Houston. She had minor flooding in the house, maybe a few inches, that will require replacing her wood floors. I would imagine a small job like that will take forever to get fixed. Who will want a small job like that when you can do full homes? The fight for contractors will be crazy.

Good luck to anyone who wants to even renovate a home for the next 2+ years.

And the area is going to be flooded with "fake" contractors that will do shoddy work or take the money and disappear with the job half done.

[masraum]

An interesting article to bring things into focus.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2017/08/30/harvey-damage-tops-20-billion-as-40000-homes-destroyed/#1e5f291c5774

Not the whole article, just an excerpt

Harvey’s tally of destruction in the Houston region includes 18 dead, 50,000 rescued, and 500,000 cars waterlogged. "We've got probably 30,000 to 40,000 homes that have been destroyed," said Harris County Judge Ed Emmett. Damage estimates surpass $20 billion. Evacuation orders have been given along the Brazos River to the southwest of Houston, which is expected to rise to a record crest of 56 feet, topping a record set just last year. The 51.88 inches Harvey dumped on Cedar Bayou in southwest Houston is now the record for most rain from a single tropical storm.

Many flooded families had recently completed repairs to homes damaged during the 2016 “Tax Day” floods. At some point it's not worth rebuilding in the flood plain again and again. Given Houston’s median home price of $300,000, the value of those 40,000 homes destroyed could be upwards of $15 billion.

One element of a possible long-term solution to Houston's flooding woes: buy out hopelessly flooded homes and return the spongey land to the water shed where it can soak up more rain.

Since 1985 the flood district has been working with FEMA to pay homeowners to give up their flood-prone properties that were “simply built in the wrong place,” i.e. “hopelessly deep in the floodplain.” More than 3,000 properties on 1,100 acres have been acquired in these buyouts, their structures bulldozed and allowed to return to their natural role in soaking up flood waters before the even get to the bayous and reservoirs.

If buying reservoir land is cheaper and easier than building a new reservoir, then by all means, more buyouts. According to FEMA, 7,000 homes were flooded during the Tax Day storm, 1,500 fewer than would have.

The program brochure has this nugget:

“People’s lives are at risk, and the flood losses drain government and community resources that affect all taxpayers. For example, a house built in 1969 that has had sixteen claims under the National Flood Insurance Program totaling $1.3 million, was purchased at a total cost of $129,000, resulting in estimated avoided damages in the hundreds of thousands of dollars.”

Buying up the deepest corners of the floodplain makes enormous sense. Landowners get enough money to start over somewhere else, while the flood district gains valuable acres of absorption capacity. Around the Addicks and Barker reservoirs, some flooded neighborhoods are inside on the boundaries of the vast reservoirs, which are normally kept as natural expanses of woods, parks and bayous, with walls and gates to hold back floodwaters.

For about $2 billion in relief money a FEMA-backed buyout could ensure that 7,000 homes never flood again.

At times like this, it's worth keeping in mind Houston's natural state -- a coastal plain, flat as a board, and the frequent target of giant storms. There's no escaping the water here. Consider this eyewitness account from O.F. Allen, member of one of Houston's founding families:

"Once could hardly picture the jungle and swampy woods that a good portion of the city is built upon. These swampy grounds had to be cleared and drained. The writer himself quite clearly remembers that the southwestern portion of the city was a green scum lake, studded with giant sweet gum trees, and water from one to two and a half feet deep... The labor of clearing the great space was done by negro slaves and Mexicans, as no white man could have worked and endured the insect bites and malaria, snake bites, impure water, and other hardships. Many of the blacks died before their work was done."

Major floods in 1927 and 1935 (when population was 300,000) spurred construction of the Addicks and Barker reservoirs. Hurricane Alicia hit in 1983, and Tropical Storm Allison dumped 25 inches in 2001. For every person who moves here that’s another few square feet of prarie and forest covered by concrete and asphalt. Texas A&M researchers have found that between 1992 and 2010, 25,000 acres of wetlands were developed. The suburban sprawl has stretched to encompass Katy, The Woodlands, Sugarland and down into Galveston — more than 10,000 square miles (New York City, Dallas and Chicago together are about 1,000 sq. miles).

It’s why Mayor Turner and Harris County Judge Ed Emmett (the highest elected official) can’t help but chuckle when backseat drivers ask whether they regret not telling their citizens to get out ahead of Harvey. Said Turner, "You cannot put 6.5 million on the road two days before a storm you don't know where it's going.”

Many of us remember the ordeal of evacuating for Rita in 2005. A neighbor had to change her kid’s poopy diaper while trapped on Highway 290. She turned back after three hours and 20 miles. Every station ran out of gas. Mayor Turner says 100 people died because of that Rita evacuation. The storm itself barely brushed Houston but did cause massive damage on the Texas-Louisiana border. After Rita, most of us pledged never to evacuate again and hunker down for Hurricane Ike, in 2008. We had no power for two weeks.

Ahead of Harvey, many who flooded during the 2016 “Tax Day” storm left town even without an evacuation order. Thousands more, who never flooded before, didn't think they had anything to worry about. Today, as they take hammer to soggy drywall, many are wondering whether any of it is still worth saving.

[74-911]

Originally Posted by masraum

An interesting article to bring things into focus.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2017/08/30/harvey-damage-tops-20-billion-as-40000-homes-destroyed/#1e5f291c5774

Not the whole article, just an excerpt

Excellent post Steve, things need to be put into perspective. Way to much second guessing going on.

[red-beard]

Steve, the number of destroyed houses seems low. Maybe they are counting only ones TOTALLY destroyed.

[74-911]

A suggest made by someone on Facebook: There is the usual controversy in Houston to take down a statue named "Spirit of the Confederacy" that was erected in one of the major parks during the 1920's.

One solution maybe everyone can agree on is to replace that statue with a memorial dedicated to "Random Guys in Bass Boats". If you saw any of the news coverage of Harvey, this makes perfect sense.

[masraum]

Originally Posted by red-beard

Steve, the number of destroyed houses seems low. Maybe they are counting only ones TOTALLY destroyed.

Yeah, no idea. These are statistics, and we all know that they can be made to say whatever someone wants. And besides, where are these coming from? Are these just City of Houston or do they count all of the suburbs? I assume they are either CoH or the Houston metropolis and if so, would they include places like Angleton, none of which would include the rest of Texas that was impacted like the stuff down south and the stuff east of Houston.

[74-911]

Originally Posted by red-beard

Steve, the number of destroyed houses seems low. Maybe they are counting only ones TOTALLY destroyed.

One of the news programs had some expert (of what I don't know) estimating that between Corpus and Beaumont/Port Arthur there are probably 250,000 homes damaged or destroyed by Harvey ??

[masraum]

Harvey: 'Unprecedented' flooding 'beyond anything experienced' inundates Houston area, kills at least 3 - ABC News

More than 185,000 homes have been damaged or destroyed as a result of Harvey, according to the Texas Division of Emergency Management.

Those numbers will certainly continue to "tick up," Tom Vinger from that agency told ABC News.

And approximately 80 percent of Texans lack flood insurance, according to data from the Texas Department of Insurance.

"There are 2.8 million residential policies in the counties on our list and 516,295 federal flood policies," Stephanie Goodman from the Texas Department of Insurance told ABC News. "These numbers start to give you a sense of how many homeowners in the area won't have coverage for most of the damage to their homes."

"That's the second wave of tragedy," Goodman added.

In terms of how Harvey stacks up against other storms, Harvey is still estimated to cost less than Hurricane Katrina, which caused $118 billion in damage when it hit New Orleans in 2005. But Harvey is projected to surpass Superstorm Sandy, which caused $75 billion in damage when it hit the eastern seaboard in 2013.

“Homeowners without flood insurance are eligible for FEMA assistance,” Goodman said.

About 440,000 Texans have registered for assistance from FEMA and the agency has approved more than $70 million in funds, Gov. Abbott said today.

Additionally, while most Texas do not have flood insurance, most homeowners are insured for wind damage. Texans have filed an estimated 100,000 windstorm damage claims and 100,000 auto insurance claims so far, according to Mark Hanna, a spokesman for the Insurance Council of Texas, a trade group that represents the state's insurers.

[red-beard]

Jack, that seems closer to what I'd think. We have 1000-1500 homes damaged at the North end of Addicks. The West end has at least 5-10 times that, since there are a lot more homes.

The woman that owns the business across from mine bought 3 house to use for old age homes. All three were flooded. She JUST had them renovated!

[masraum]

Originally Posted by red-beard

Jack, that seems closer to what I'd think. We have 1000-1500 homes damaged at the North end of Addicks. The West end has at least 5-10 times that, since there are a lot more homes.

The woman that owns the business across from mine bought 3 house to use for old age homes. All three were flooded. She JUST had them renovated!

I hope she had insurance.

[Jolly Amaranto]

[74-911]

Originally Posted by Instrument 41

Good morning Guys. Chiming in form Baton Rouge and we just went through what you guys are going through almost a exactly a year ago. We had the 1000 year flood. The shock of the flooding is now dwindling, but the long term issues are going to FAR outweigh the shock of the flooding. We had 1000's of folks that flooded and had no flood insurance, didn't need it. Homes in X flood zone got 6 feet of water due to back flooding. Some of these families are still not in their homes. The FEMA flood insurance program is broke. The clean up , and rebuilding is sooo long and arduous. The drywall, 1 foot above the flood mark, and EVERYTHING below that to the slab must be thrown out. Cabinets, flooring, everything. Some who had tile flooring though that it would be ok, but when the mold began to grow in the voids under their tile and it began to pop up after they had done all the major work and painting are now having to do their floors after the fact. And think how long it going to take to get replacement material for your house, especially cabinets, when thousands of others are trying to do the same thing. The city had a major issue over here on where to put all the debris. Imagine the sheetrock, appliances, furniture, flooring , insulation, ect..in a pile in your front yard for weeks, rotting and mildewing. Sorry guys but your issues are just barely starting.
Necessities- Bleach, dehumidifiers, cleaning supplies, shovels, hammers, crow bars, rubber gloves, breathing mask. Remember the longer you wait to do this removal mold will literally take over.
I was part of the Cajun navy during our event last year. Couldn't make it to help yall out but looks like my brothers are doing what they set out to do. Our prayers and support are heading your way. You will never imagine to outcome and results of this event till your way on the other side of this.

The scenario in this post is now delivering a gut punch to thousands of people as they return to their home and many more are going to get it over the next few days. Flood insurance or not, this is a life altering event mentally, physically, emotionally and financially. The question so many now express is "what next? what do I do".

I spent several days in NOLA about 6 weeks after Katrina and I will never forget what I saw (just as described above) and this is going to be worse. Literally mountains of dead refrigerators, air conditioners. Piled in front of every house was a mountain of sheetrock, molding furniture, mattresses by the thousands and there was still no power then, it was pitch black at night ( great scenario for the zombie apocalypse)..

and where are the workers going to come from to start the process of repairing all the damage ?? where are they going to stay, eat ?? and rip-off artists, scammers will be coming out of the woodwork...

[Instrument 41]

One of the major issues we had. have here in Louisiana from last years flood, is that if you didn't have flood insurance then you were able to get some fed disaster aid. The range is 8000 to 30000. To this day the justification for who got what still hasn't been made clear. But if you fed funds then you have to find a contractor that's approved by the feds. They must first do an estimate to repair. If that figure is 51% of the total value, that house must be destroyed. Along with those funds you can apply for a SBA loan, but that is based on the equity in your house. There are still large numbers of homes that have been gutted and then just left vacant. Once they started working and began to count the cost, it wasn't worth it and walked away. and there are still some homes that were closed up and nothing was done. Within the past few months numbers of contractors have been convicted of swindling money out of folks. Some are justified and some contractors took on too much work, lost employees to better paying jobs and couldn't complete the job. Now if your looking to take advantage of this situation...cabinet makers are getting very rich. There are still some homes that are almost complete less cabinets in the house.

[motion]

I just cannot imagine the feeling of restarting your life and caring for your family when your home is uninhabitable and you've lost everything but the clothes on your back. Will your employer issue you a paycheck next friday? Do you just live off of your credit limit and hope for the best? It has to be overwhelming.

[Crowbob]

Originally Posted by motion

I just cannot imagine the feeling of restarting your life and caring for your family when your home is uninhabitable and you've lost everything but the clothes on your back. Will your employer issue you a paycheck next friday? Do you just live off of your credit limit and hope for the best? It has to be overwhelming.

This happens all the time. Somebody's house explodes or a wildfire burns it to the ground or whatever calamity befalls him. It's the extent of it in and around Houston is what is singular.

500,000 vehicles that were operational last week are now flooded out and stranded right where they sat.

100,000 homes: gone.

And that's just in Texas.

[jyl]

I read that, for those without flood insurance, the best they can get is a low interest federal loan. For those with flood insurance, I read typical limits are 25% of house replacement cost. I have not found data on average homeowner's equity in Houston.

You see where this is going. What % of those homeowners who were flooded will ultimately abandon their homes and default on the mortgages? Some won't be able to make them habitable again, others will lose them when they can't service the increased debt.

And of those who manage to hang on, what % will be at substantial probability of defaulting after the next flood - remember that Houston has been having major floods (though nothing like Harvey) every few years now.

I'm thinking a whole bunch of Houston-originated mortgages are now worth much less than a few weeks ago. Four days ago the early estimate was 400,000 homes with agency backed mortgages were likely damaged, but no-one really knew the full scope. And there will be some non-agency backed mortgages too.

[red-beard]

Today they are now calling it a 40,000 year flood

This is my neighborhood on Aug 30th, at the maximum flood.

The very light brown is dry concrete

Darker brown is concrete with a few inches of water

The Wide very dark area is Turkey Creek. It is about 5-6 feet deep.



See the bridge in the middle, it is dry. Wet on both ends. To the left, the water is about 1 foot deep. Note the color. The darker the color, the wetter the area.



Bridge to left, look right and see how the water becomes much deeper. The eight houses in the circle on the right side, the water is at least 4 feet deep between them. There are two "lakes" in a C and reverse C shape. The recreation center is in the bottom right, with the pool looking a lovely shade of algae.

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by jyl

I read that, for those without flood insurance, the best they can get is a low interest federal loan. For those with flood insurance, I read typical limits are 25% of house replacement cost. I have not found data on average homeowner's equity in Houston.

You see where this is going. What % of those homeowners who were flooded will ultimately abandon their homes and default on the mortgages? Some won't be able to make them habitable again, others will lose them when they can't service the increased debt.

And of those who manage to hang on, what % will be at substantial probability of defaulting after the next flood - remember that Houston has been having major floods (though nothing like Harvey) every few years now.

I'm thinking a whole bunch of Houston-originated mortgages are now worth much less than a few weeks ago. Four days ago the early estimate was 400,000 homes with agency backed mortgages were likely damaged, but no-one really knew the full scope. And there will be some non-agency backed mortgages too.

The limit on Flood insurance is $250,000 and that will cost your around $450 per year.

[slow&rusty]

I spent yesterday (Friday) afternoon and evening in Friendswood which is town about 30ish minutes north of Galveston helping my cousin who had 8 feet of standing water in his once lovely house. A team of us gutted most of his house (first floor) and we're heading back this morning to continue working and then tackle the garage.

The houses and cars had water in them for over 5 days as the police did not allow residents back to their houses until yesterday (due to high water), so the smell after opening up was horrific and a terrible stench, there were people throwing as it was that pungent. Lots of mold too...and I mean lots.

Driving around the town and looking at the devastation that people and families are enduring is gut wrenching, sickening and saddening...and I'm a tough cat.

Some pictures I snapped to share with you.

His completely submerged ML500:




Hi Garage - which we will clean up today:


Neighbor's G35:








Yasin