Are we not talking about the way cool new Tesla lorry and Roadster?

[sc_rufctr]

Originally Posted by GH85Carrera

So the Tesla makes a couple of runs, has to cool off. The 911 can do 100 - 0-150 runs in the time the Tesla does a few.

No doubt, electric and hybrids are here. All electric cars are fine for city commuting. As other have mentioned, long distance is never going to happen.

I have done 900 miles in a day on 6 different occasions in my 32 year old 911. I was not tired and could go further but I was at a good stopping point. That Tesla will be recycled into to other things long before the year 2050. My 911 may still be running as an antique.

All true and as electric cars become more common gasoline should become cheaper.

[flipper35]

Then we have to figure out how to tax the electric cars for using the road as there will be less income from taxes on a gallon of gasoline as there is less used.

I am not saying that as a dis on electric, but our legislators are very short sighted and won't think of it until we are in crisis mode again.

[Por_sha911]

Tax EV? LOL!
We are giving them money.
Take away the tax incentive and tax them to cover the road usage and the EV fairytale goes down the tubes.

[1990C4S]

Originally Posted by sc_rufctr

Like it or not the electric car is here... In 5 years time 1/3 of the cars on the road will be electric.

That is not going to happen. There will not be manufacturing capacity to achieve it. Not for motors, not for batteries, not for battery packs.

[svandamme]

Originally Posted by Por_sha911

Tax EV? LOL!
We are giving them money.
Take away the tax incentive and tax them to cover the road usage and the EV fairytale goes down the tubes.

Norway is already shifting towards EV taxation for high end models.

[GH85Carrera]

Originally Posted by 1990C4S

That is not going to happen. There will not be manufacturing capacity to achieve it. Not for motors, not for batteries, not for battery packs.

But mostly for the electrical generating capacity of the country. Many part of the nation just squeak by every summer when the AC gets cranked up. Add the load of making millions more cars drive millions of miles, the grid will collapse. We need to start building new generating plants. Almost everyone is NIMBY!

[1990C4S]

The grid in every American city has a huge amount of unused capacity.

[RedBaron]

Originally Posted by 1990C4S

The grid in every American city has a huge amount of unused capacity.

Yeah but some of that is saved for reserves - The rest is typically made up of older units (that are unreliable and pollute a lot). I work in the field, GH85 is 100% right.

That graph is also in KWs. To charge one truck it takes 1+ MW.

[1990C4S]

Somehow the peak demand is met every day...graph it in Watts, mWatts or GWatts, the demand drops by 1/3 at night almost everywhere.

And if the cost is demand based then it will self level.

In the end the main complaint will be cost.

[RedBaron]

Originally Posted by 1990C4S

Somehow the peak demand is met every day...graph it in Watts, mWatts or GWatts, the demand drops by 1/3 at night almost everywhere.

And if the cost is demand based then it will self level.

In the end the main complaint will be cost.

Yeah because peak demand has not really in years due to energy efficiency programs. Electric cars change that a lot.

Here is a link:
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2017-04-25/u-s-power-demand-flatlined-years-ago-and-it-s-hurting-utilities

You are right though, demand does decrease at night. It would not be cost efficient to run peaker plants 24/7. Are you proposing everyone charges their cars at night? Would be interesting how the trucking industry responds. Electric cars will require more natural gas plants (or nuke/pump storage) no matter how you look at it. Also load serving entities will jack up your power bill.

[island911]

Originally Posted by svandamme

Norway is already shifting towards EV taxation for high end models.

This State too. Huge tax breaks on purchase, but annual licensing is steep. Likely getting the missed sales tax recoupled w/in a decade. I wonder how many EV's will last that long.

[GH85Carrera]

Originally Posted by island911

This State too. Huge tax breaks on purchase, but annual licensing is steep. Likely getting the missed sales tax recoupled w/in a decade. I wonder how many EV's will last that long.

I have wondered about long term battery life in electric cars. It uses the same battery cell as a cell phone and usually after 48 to 60 months a cell phone battery is pretty crappy.

[Por_sha911]

There are so many skeletons in the EV closet that no one wants to talk about. -Environmentally, over the life of the vehicle the components and batteries are far worse than combustion engine.
-There is not such thing as a "zero emissions" vehicle-you are just hiding emissions in a power plant somewhere. Increased demand means more need for oil, coal, nuclear (wind & solar are not able to contribute a remote speck of what is needed).
-As stated, the power grid is not even remotely capable of handling the power production increase (no, not everyone can charge only at night).
-When power demands go up, the entire system will have to be improved and that means the utility will increase your bill to pay for the improvements. Business costs go up so you pay more for everything you buy. Homeowners utility bills go up...
-We have no real long term data on how long the batteries will last and environmentally the disposal is going to be a nightmare. If you go the recycling route (and most likely you will be required to do so for the environment), then the cost will go even higher.
-The more complex EVs get, the more cost of repair will go up. DIY will be unthinkable and you will be held hostage to go to the dealer. We have several threads about that joy already.

The list goes on and on.

I predict that there will come a day when technology will be able to do what we dream about today but, until then, don't expect the 90% to be forced to use what only 10% of the world thinks is viable.

[Holger]

^Nice summary!

[1990C4S]

The vast majority of people will charge at night, additionally batteries are already being used to store base load for discharging during the day. Many places can increase their base output, but there is no demand. Battery storage helps in the regard. Both as a load and as a back-up source.

The source of the electricity simply changes the clean-air math. With nuclear or green energy as the source a gasoline driven car can't be cleaner than electric. For coal the number is closer to 40 mpg; above that a car is cleaner. For he typical mix of power I think I read 55 mpg is the crossover point. Very few people actually achieve 55 mpg.

The vast majority of 'anti' arguments are based on the unsuitability for long trips (which are small percentage of most people's usage) and a 'net environmental' concern that no one has proven either way.

I don't want one. Ever. But they are coming, and lots of people will drive them.

[island911]

Originally Posted by 1990C4S

...
The source of the electricity simply changes the clean-air math. With nuclear or green energy as the source a gasoline driven car can't be cleaner than electric. ...

Are you accounting for the energy required to create that $60,000 battery pack? (which has a very finite life, as anyone with a few year old cell phone knows)

[Holger]

And the polution created when producing a huge windmill?

The only thing I see positive is that the polution is moved outside the cities. Environmentally (the whole span!) I THINK the EV is no better then other solutions.

[Por_sha911]

Wind turbines are not a major plus because of environmental concerns with birds and bats, noise pollution if located near where people live (low but can have psychological effects), major acreage needed unless in a hilly location, unreliable output since winds pick up and slow down and, just not enough power to offset the major demands of a modern society.

[GH85Carrera]

Originally Posted by 1990C4S

The vast majority of people will charge at night, additionally batteries are already being used to store base load for discharging during the day.

I don't want one. Ever. But they are coming, and lots of people will drive them.

So guess they will be charging up with solar power I presume? Those solar cells that work on starlight? Or the windmills that work at night when the winds tend to be calm.

I remember seeing a chart on the amount of energy used by the cars and trucks on the road at any moment. It was converted to megawatt hours. It was a lot of energy.

[onewhippedpuppy]

“Long trips” in the context of an EV is a relative term. In the past month I have taken at least five round trip drives that would exceed the range of any EV on the market. Once you get outside of heavy urban driving environments the practicality starts getting very limited for people that don’t have cars dedicated for city use.