Air cooled prices trending down

[walt]

https://www.thedrive.com/news/27908/is-the-air-cooled-porsche-911-market-cooling

[Vaive]

For the last 3-5 years everything's been in a bubble. Housing, stocks, bonds, classic cars. Name an asset, I'll show you a bubble. At some point it will all collapse. Question is, will it happen tomorrow, 6 months from , 12 months? Who knows. As the old saying goes, a market can be irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

[touringmandan]

The sky is falling, the sky is falling!!!! Is anybody listening? The stock market "plummeted" .02%!!!

[High Life]

Well if the market value is going down - then it doesn't matter if I put on a few extra miles on her...

[Patrick3000]

Originally Posted by High Life

Well if the market value is going down - then it doesn't matter if I put on a few extra miles on her...

Out today putting a few miles on the SC, long story short a guy offered 50k cash out of the blue. If this is trending down

[ryans65]

can't wait for it to crash, been wanting a Pre A for a while

[manbridge 74]

Let it plummet, parts and some services will go down as well.

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by manbridge 74

Let it plummet, parts and some services will go down as well.

Not in the current manufacturing and trade environment.

[Alan A]

Down would be good. I keep thinking I want a 930.
Of course I would have to sell the 996TT to help pay for it, but I do keep *thinking* I want one.

[usera]

One could only hope, the 95% of us who love driving these cars and don't look at them as investments would prefer it I believe.

[piscator]

Originally Posted by usera

One could only hope, the 95% of us who love driving these cars and don't look at them as investments would prefer it I believe.

Amen Brother! I long for the days when my SC was worth +/- $20!

[jfawsitt]

Last time I checked Porsche wasn't making any more air cooled cars. As long as demand exceeds supply for nice cars prices will continue to increase. Who knows at what rate.

[JMS935]

Originally Posted by jfawsitt

Last time I checked Porsche wasn't making any more air cooled cars. As long as demand exceeds supply for nice cars prices will continue to increase. Who knows at what rate.

Then demand must be dissipating, because prices have been falling. With the steep and quick escalation in values, it’s no wonder they’re coming back down.

[SkunkWorks]

From the BAT auction results and even the asking prices of cars on here and RL, it certainly doesn't seem to have gone down at all?

G50 Carreras are regularly mid 50s on BAT now while 964s are 60+. Even nice SCs are mid to high 40s. 930s and 993s have gone down but they seem to be the only victims.

Am I missing something here? Obviously the garbage cars are languishing but I certainly don't see cars in the enthusiast realm having gone down at all this year. The quarter mil+ market notwithstanding - isn't something I follow.

[Vaive]

Originally Posted by SkunkWorks

From the BAT auction results and even the asking prices of cars on here and RL, it certainly doesn't seem to have gone down at all?

G50 Carreras are regularly mid 50s on BAT now while 964s are 60+. Even nice SCs are mid to high 40s. 930s and 993s have gone down but they seem to be the only victims.

Am I missing something here? Obviously the garbage cars are languishing but I certainly don't see cars in the enthusiast realm having gone down at all this year. The quarter mil+ market notwithstanding - isn't something I follow.

I am actively shopping for one. There are two types of sellers out there that I have encountered. One is the "my car's twin sold on BAT for $62K so I'll ask $67K" seller. The other is "I bought this car for $16K, 15 years ago, if I get $45K for it, I'll be happy". It's basically two separate markets for the same product.

And I'm talking about non-junk stuff. Not garage queens either, the 50% in the middle stuff.

[JMS935]

I closely monitor the 930 market, which is what I’m referring to, and that’s down quite a bit from its highs. Turds with lots of miles on them were pulling six figures a couple two to three years ago, and now it takes a very special 930 to even break six figures. I’d say some were so ill-bought that they’ve lost probably half their value if sold today. So to some that rushed into this hobby at the very top of the frothy market, they got burned. Some of these buys have depreciated much faster than a new car (at the same price point) driven off the dealer’s lot. Hopefully they've at least have gotten some enjoyment out of it while it’s been bleeding money.

[nathanbs]

Originally Posted by JMS935

I closely monitor the 930 market, which is what I’m referring to, and that’s down quite a bit from its highs. Turds with lots of miles on them were pulling six figures a couple two to three years ago, and now it takes a very special 930 to even break six figures. I’d say some were so ill-bought that they’ve lost probably half their value if sold today. So to some that rushed into this hobby at the very top of the frothy market, they got burned. Some of these buys have depreciated much faster than a new car (at the same price point) driven off the dealer’s lot. Hopefully they've at least have gotten some enjoyment out of it while it’s been bleeding money.

I think the current 930 market is an isolated market all on its own and their fall from grace was just because they went ape **** approx 2 years ago. The other market that went ape **** just after 930s were 964s but it wasn’t to the same high dollar so I don’t think they will drop as significantly I just don’t think they will continue to appreciate any time soon.

[JMS935]

Originally Posted by nathanbs

I think the current 930 market is an isolated market all on its own and their fall from grace was just because they went ape **** approx 2 years ago. The other market that went ape **** just after 930s were 964s but it wasn’t to the same high dollar so I don’t think they will drop as significantly I just don’t think they will continue to appreciate any time soon.

Yep. Many didn’t get the memo that the 930 was in production for 15 years, basically triple the amount of time the 964 and 993 turbos were. That’s not to say that rare models within the 930 haven’t held up well while their more common brethren have fallen, because I think many of them have.

[Unobtanium-inc]

Anybody who isn't noticing a flatness/drop to the market is ignoring the obvious. Yes, you can still find cars that bring record money, but they aren't your average car, the ones that 95% of the people buy, sell, and own.
The market is retracting, so the worst get hit first. Anyone try selling a 912 lately? Or a 911 Targa?

This was bound to happen, the white hot market of 3 years ago was unsustainable. The only people who will be hurt now are the ones who rode through the hot market wanting 10% over retail, or the ones that bought in the last 6 months and didn't get the memo in time. The rest of us can just hold the cars we personally own and adjust what we buy and sell for on the business side. Buying is hard right now, that's the problem with being 2 steps ahead of the market, you get the memo before most people, so they are still telling you what they think their car is worth, using out-dated info.

Anyone who has been in this business more than 10 years has seen the cycle before and will adjust. The ones that got into it in the white hot market will have to go back to their old jobs. It's like all the bartenders and house painters who got into Real Estate in Vegas during the housing boom, anyone can make money in a hot market, just by showing up. But to make it in the long term in the Porsche business you have to ride the waves as they come and hopefully spent the money they made on diversifying.

---Adam

[Vaive]

Originally Posted by Unobtanium-inc

It's like all the bartenders and house painters who got into Real Estate in Vegas during the housing boom, anyone can make money in a hot market, just by showing up. But to make it in the long term in the Porsche business you have to ride the waves as they come and hopefully spent the money they made on diversifying.

Like real estate, all 911s are "local" as in the entire market is not uniform. what got killed in Las Vegas were the extremes. The really high end and the really low end. $1M peak homes were going for $500K and $200K peak were going for $50K at the bottom of the crash. But $300k peak homes were still going for $235K. That's because the low end was all speculative buying. The specuvestors vanished at the slightest sign of a downturn. And in a crash, fewer people can afford the high end or want to part with some much money on a luxury good that is depreciating. But the middle, is still valuable and there is still a demand for it, even in economic downturns.

I think the same will happen with 911s. The junk will fall of a cliff since nobody will want that stuff at any price once flippers go away. The 6 figure plus cars will come back to reality as even people with money will realize how dumb it is to spend that much. And then the middle will take a small hit but not earth shattering. Today's $50K 911 will be $40k in a year or two, that type of thing.

It's how bubbles always correct themselves.