Equities Are Up - Page 6

tabs · 02:10 PM

The heights have been scaled...SP closed at a higher high....the door is now open for sp3000...of course there maybe a pull back before that happens in an oversold condition, or some blip...

BHut all things being equal...

tabs · 06-20-2019, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

Dat ain't da fed reserve.

Well Duh!!!

fintstone · fintstone's Garage

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) roared in June. The best monthly return for June since 1938!

tabs · 07-04-2019, 11:46 PM

On 7/3/19 The sp closed at 2995. An all time high. It will push over the magic 3000 interday but the key will be to close over that number. Then to build a basis of support staying around that number.

KFC911 · 07-05-2019, 03:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fintstone

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) roared in June. The best monthly return for June since 1938!

And 10 yr yields on US and world wide gov bond/bund for conservative savers are at the other extreme. Fueled by the FED's fiscally liberal/dovish BS....timing is everything....if yer a timer....me not

.

The bonds I purchased right before Dec. 4th....up 15%....guaranteed coupon 5%....I wish I had purchased 10x the amont I did.....now

.

Enjoy the ride....10 years now....queue up Joe Walsh...for most of us here....YMMV.

Sooner or later · 07-05-2019, 06:27 AM

There is little to no inflation. Why would we expect higher rates?

KFC911 · 07-05-2019, 07:29 AM

^^^ For lots of reasons that I've held for years. By your logic...should they have ever risen from 0? Inflation...just one facet imo. Not for me, a true fiscal conservative imo, to decide anymore....or I would

! Go ahead....make me king....or....King Tabz....yer pick....LOL

.

Sooner or later · 07-05-2019, 07:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KC911

^^^ For lots of reasons that I've held for years. By your logic...should they have ever risen from 0? Inflation...just one facet imo. Not for me, a true fiscal conservative imo, to decide anymore....or I would

! Go ahead....make me king....or....King Tabz....yer pick....LOL

.

They were to low for too long. Now they are within a gnats azz of where they should be.

Why should they be increased? There is no inflation. The economy is not overheated. Why increase rates and cause the cost of everything to increase. Cost or cars. Cost of homes. Why increase the cost of doing business? Why increase the cost of debt servicing. The dollar is already strong compared to the rest of the world which hurts exports. Why raise rates, further strengthen the dollar, and make our exports even more expensive?

In the current environment rates are fine where they are.

fintstone · fintstone's Garage

Another great jobs report! Even better than the last.

Yes, it may impact the interest rate discussion and slightly impact the market (as it provides cover not to lower rates as they should). I suspect they will still drop slightly. They are just a bit high.

RWebb · RWebb's Garage

There is no excess inflation.

Global economy is not looking all that great.

US job market pretty solid (except for those in their prime working age).

Co.s are not having to pay more to get workers - good & bad...

tabs · 07-05-2019, 11:16 AM

People are willing to take low long term interest rates because they are decidedly pessimistic about long term economic performance. If there were more confidence rates would be higher as higher rates would have to be paid to attract money away from alternative investments.

The FED short term rate is the overnight lending rate to banks...and is set by the FED..to speed up or slow the flow of money.

The fact that there is an inversion belies the fact that the herd is more pessimistic economically and the FED is out of touch with that sentiment. The pressure is on the FED to lower rates to get in synch with global sentiment..

tabs · 11:30 AM

If spite of all the liquidity pumped into the system, a low unemployment number..decent GDP numbers you still have very low inflation? By all rights you should be experiencing higher inflation.

What is wrong with this picture? Low Demand keeps prices down. The consumer does not have the where with all to purchase all the swag.

No matter what they have done the consumer has rolled over since 2008. GW spooked the herd and changed people's perceptions about their future..they got a dose of reality that they couldn't blithely continue consuming as they had in the past. Their credit ran out.

The greater number of Americans are struggling and they are aware of it. They can't meet a $400 crisis.

tabs · 11:45 AM

What peturbs me and makes me think much less about people's mental acuity...on this Board in particular is that they don't get it..and yourselves in particular because you have been patiently had it explained to you in great detail.by myself. I have taken the time to engage and answer questions and explain it to many of you indivdually.

I do not write wishful thinking opinion..i write accurately and analytically about reality.

KFC911 · 12:09 PM

I'm gonna put on a tie dye, go see Gov't Mule, and then Derek & Susan....just wish I had some easy credit to get some $15/beers and a pair of draggin' azz jeans....but I live within my means

. Inflation....nah

jyl · jyl's Garage

Check out the different components of CPI. Services CPI is running around 4-5% (this is from memory, not exact), shelter CPI also fairly high (can't recall exactly), but goods CPI is running very low with durable goods especially low (I want to say 1% ish). The weighting, and hedonic (quality) adjustments are combining to produce an overall CPI under 2%.

Basically this is rising prices for things "produced" in the US vs not rising prices for things imported (e.g. from low cost countries like China).

A major increase in tariffs or a major shift from production in low cost countries to high cost US production can disrupt this low inflation situation.

Sooner or later · 07-05-2019, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jyl

Check out the different components of CPI. Services CPI is running around 4-5% (this is from memory, not exact), shelter CPI also fairly high (can't recall exactly), but goods CPI is running very low with durable goods especially low (I want to say 1% ish). The weighting, and hedonic (quality) adjustments are combining to produce an overall CPI under 2%.

Basically this is rising prices for things "produced" in the US vs not rising prices for things imported (e.g. from low cost countries like China).

A major increase in tariffs or a major shift from production in low cost countries to high cost US production can disrupt this low inflation situation.

Well said.

Sooner or later · 07-05-2019, 12:35 PM

Keep in mind, jyl, that the US wants the same access into China that China expects from us. Wei are using the current low inflation rate environment, solid US economy, and threat of tarriffs to get that equal access. China is bucking up because their economy is not where they want it so they want to continue to limit imports to keep their peeps jobs from being taken over by imports.

It is the perfect time to use that method.

Por_sha911 · Por_sha911's Garage

The sky is still falling.

tabs · 07-05-2019, 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

Keep in mind, jyl, that the US wants the same access into China that China expects from us. Wei are using the current low inflation rate environment, solid US economy, and threat of tarriffs to get that equal access. China is bucking up because their economy is not where they want it so they want to continue to limit imports to keep their peeps jobs from being taken over by imports.

It is the perfect time to use that method.

There is another reason...

tabs · 07-10-2019, 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tabs

On 7/3/19 The sp closed at 2995. An all time high. It will push over the magic 3000 interday but the key will be to close over that number. Then to build a basis of support staying around that number.

Today 7/10/19 the SP broke 3000 for the first time reaching 3002.98 before falling back below 3000....