Roses are Red, Violets are Blue

[Bill Douglas]

Roses are red.

Violets are blue

And how are you.

You haven't reported in for a day or two.

[rusnak]

Oh you enjoy being dramatic as always, Pav.

What we know is that it's a SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) virus, which is a family of viruses that is called a Corona virus, of which the common cold is a member. Researchers have known for a long time that viruses originating in bats can be lethal to humans. SARS and other viruses from bats can have a 10% mortality rate and are bad because once it infects a human host, can be transmitted from human to human at a rate of 20% or so. What they are calling Covid, Covid-2 etc seems to have a mortality rate of less than 1% worldwide. It seems to have been a factor in around 2 million human deaths. All of these mortality rates include people who have a health history which may make mortality an indirect result of the virus, and people who have no health history and therefore mortality is a direct result of the virus. All of these cases are lumped together for lack of full analysis. History may therefore never be able to have clean statistics relating to mortality rates. In any case, all studies take time and we are at a 2-year timeline from the virus breaking out into the human population, and therefore we do not fully understand all there is to know about it. We also know that in the past 24 months it has taken on more snippets of human genetic sequences and therefore has become less bat-associated and now geneticaly recognized as more human related. That is one of the biggest reasons for it being far less severe, and more recognized as now more "flu like" in it's symptoms. These outbreaks, including SARS 1, Covid, and Ebola etc have an arc. This is no exception. If that triggers you, then oh well sorry. Not sorry. And BTW Ebola was far more lethal, just far less transmittable.

[pavulon]

Lol. "What we know..."

Crunching epidemiology numbers and running ANOVA on roller dog sales.

[island911]

it seems that no one is saying “masks work” or thinking that we can vaccinate our way out of a pandemic anymore…I guess that’s progress around here.

[rusnak]

Yes, that's right. There are facts that we know.

For example:

1. We know now that three Chinese labs had the SARS-2 (the virus that causes Covid-19) genome completely mapped within weeks of the first individual being diagnosed with a type of corona virus. It was isolated and when it was mapped, that is when they realized that it's a bat type of virus.

2. We know that the research labs were slow to share all of their scientific data with the WHO and CDC. The WHO and CDC do not conduct any primary research. They are bureacratic orignizations that coordinate and recommend responses by government agencies around the world.

3. European labs also had the SARS-2 virus 100% mapped within months after the Chinese.

4. We know exactly what the virus is, it's composition, and how it replicates. What we do not know is how to prevent it from spreading. That is because the genetic composition of modern humans is extremely varied. The infectious response is also varied. For example, some researchers have noticed that individuals who are asymptomatic are able to prevent the virus from producing proteins in order to replicate. These people seem to not get sick at all. In these people the human genome pairs that intefere with the production of protein on the SARS virus are actually Neandertal in origin. Not all humans posses this archaic genome, and therefore not all humans are able to resist infection in the same way. So although we know what the SARS virus is, we can't always predict how the human body will respond to it. What we can do is generalize about SARS viruses from past studies. We have observed patterns, such as rates of infection, mortality, and types of symptoms in human subjects.

5. The research into a vaccine must therefore focus on the modern Homo Sapien genome. Whether a "cure" can be found is far from being settled, precisely because of the vast differences from person to person. The primary research is very data intensive and takes time and requires multiple statistical studies.

[speeder]

Roses are red.

Violets are blue

And how are you.

You haven't reported in for a day or two.

Hey Bill, feeling a little better but it's definitely up and down, this little virus definitely isn't done with me yet. I've been sleeping a lot and just waiting for the day when I wake up feeling all better. This is day 14 since symptoms first appeared and at least it hasn't really gotten worse. It's a low-grade deal.

Thanks for asking!

[red-beard]

Denis you should start to feel better about now. 14-15 days was when my nose dried up.

I still have laryngitis

[rusnak]

Hope you feel better, Denis. But as a data point, it took me maybe 21 days before the old energy came back. Sleeping a lot is probably the best way to handle it.

[red-beard]

Roses are red violets are blue

Will the forum ever return to normal...

[stevej37]

Ground Hog Day

[upsscott]

Well apparently I spoke too soon. My wife is positive and has symptoms(bad cold). I have not tested positive yet but how can I not at some point?

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by upsscott

Well apparently I spoke too soon. My wife is positive and has symptoms(bad cold). I have not tested positive yet but how can I not at some point?

FWIW, my brother tested positive (at home and PCR tests) with symptoms but his wife and his son never had a positive test (at home or PCR) so it's possible.

[red-beard]

Just found out that someone we buy parts from, ended up in the Hospital in October. He lost his wife and his sister to COVID. None were vaccinated. Most likely Delta

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by red-beard

Just found out that someone we buy parts from, ended up in the Hospital in October. He lost his wife and his sister to COVID. None were vaccinated. Most likely Delta

I found out last week a guy I've known since I was a kid, one of my oldest brother's best friends, was in the hospital and not doing well. He lost the fight Sunday morning. Like those you know, he also wasn't vaccinated. Damn we gotta get past this sh.t.

[speeder]

I'm with Donald Trump on this one, vaccines work. People who are vaccinated can still get Covid but the outcomes are severely different. There are of course exceptions but you need to play the odds in life and those are the odds. It's very sad to hear about unvaccinated people dying who should not have died.

FWIW, I seem to have turned the corner and felt a LOT better today. Day 15. Still not 100% but was out and about and felt almost normal today. I took a hike and got some fresh air yesterday, I think that helped but who knows? Hopefully, it's just run its course in me.

Yesterday hike in Griffith Park, above the tennis courts. Nice 70 deg. day:

[upsscott]

Originally Posted by cabmando

I found out last week a guy I've known since I was a kid, one of my oldest brother's best friends, was in the hospital and not doing well. He lost the fight Sunday morning. Like those you know, he also wasn't vaccinated. Damn we gotta get past this sh.t.

I have a good friend who is not vaccinated that just got admitted to the hospital today. Hoping for the best.

[upsscott]

Originally Posted by island911

it seems that no one is saying “masks work” or thinking that we can vaccinate our way out of a pandemic anymore…I guess that’s progress around here.

N95 masks seem to work and the vaccine well, it keeps you from dying. It doesn’t keep dummies who aren’t vaxxed from getting it from a vaxxed person however.

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by speeder

FWIW, I seem to have turned the corner and felt a LOT better today. Day 15. Still not 100% but was out and about and felt almost normal today. I took a hike and got some fresh air yesterday, I think that helped but who knows? Hopefully, it's just run its course in me.

Glad you're feeling better, Denis. It takes a while. I still feel tired during the day, but that may be "normal" fatigue from dealing with all of this stupid crap!

My problem is Mrs. Beard thinks "Covid is back" anytime I sneeze or cough.

[Baz]

Originally Posted by red-beard

My problem is Mrs. Beard thinks "Covid is back" anytime I sneeze or cough.

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by red-beard

Glad you're feeling better, Denis. It takes a while. I still feel tired during the day, but that may be "normal" fatigue from dealing with all of this stupid crap!

My problem is Mrs. Beard thinks "Covid is back" anytime I sneeze or cough.

When I'm in a store and feel the urge to clear my throat I look around like I'm about to steal something just to make sure no one is around. I hate that look you get if you cough just once. At home I have my teenage kids conditioned to yell COVID anytime someone coughs.

And I share your sentiment.. Glad you're feeling better Denis.