Any information about the Pacific Palisades Fire

[KFC911]

^^^ LOL ... I love it .... and I get it ... rock on....

"I Love LA" - "Speeder" Newman

NC is more my speed tho' ... but deep roots run deep everywhere for some ... you rebuild and regrow.

Same as we've done for nearly 300 years .... here.

Best to all of you guys!

[Danimal16]

Originally Posted by KC911

You can't design most large scale systems to account for everything ... out to the peripheries. It's unaffordable ... or simply logistically impossible in many cases.

Yes you can design systems to address these. Upgrading is done as old, under performing system components age out. Greater future loads are funded by the entity loading the system, it is quite simple. It all has to do with the rate structure and management of the system. The best rate structure for retail, IMHO is an AWWA M1 structure. This type of structure incorporates all components and is easy, very easy to explain to the public/rate payers. It also, in accordance with a proper Master Plan of Facilities identifies facilities replacement with the funding for those replacements already incorporated into the rate structures.

Logistics is a function of executing incorporating general and specific plan components into the master plan of facilities for the utility. A properly done Master Plan of Facilities will show the impacts of every existing and every planned system impact and improvement. The associated costs are identified in the Master Plan.

The Masterplan will also identify the funding source and identify capital improvements required for new users. There are a number of funding mechanisms available. The risk is that the cash reserves containing the pre-payments for future improvements are tempting targets for politicians to raid for their favorite projects.

Designing and constructing or modifying a system to provide a given flow and suction head at a point of delivery (fire hydrant) is never impossible. There are impediments to implementing those programs, but engineering, financing and hydraulics are not one of them.

[KFC911]

I don't want to sound facetious, but the design of systems is easy enough... gettting it done logistically and paid for? That's where reality happens .... and usually doesn't happen.

Because it cost too much to do it 100%.... and even then Mother Nature will prevail and people will lose... everything.

But I defer to your expertise ... that's not my arena... at all.

Best to you all going forward...

[techweenie]

Interesting artifact

[stevej37]

[kevin993]

Curious - where are homeowners or churches/schools/businesses that got burned out getting their mail? Are they being directed to their local post office (if it still exists)?

[RANDY P]

Originally Posted by speeder

How much do you California haters want to bet right here and now that every square inch that was burned in the Palisades gets rebuilt? As always, you seem to have a basic misunderstanding of this place and think that it's just Phoenix or Cincinnati near the ocean.

Where would some super-successful people who lived in the Palisades move to, in your imagination? People live here BY CHOICE, not because it's where they were hatched and they never had the wherewithal to move anywhere else. It's a special place. Yes, it's more expensive in every way than most other places in the U.S. but the benefits in terms of recreation, natural beauty, the local economy, jobs, institutes of higher learning, restaurants, etc., make the possible replacement locations close to non-existent.

Also, people have lived in the area for generations and have deep community and professional ties, not to mention extended family. One good friend who grew up in Santa Monica Canyon, (between Pacific Palisades and Santa Monica), owns a house now in the canyon and his 85 year old father and stepmother live close by. Both houses were spared or missed by the fire, thank god. The father is one of 10 children, all very accomplished and most relocated to the Santa Monica or Palisades area decades ago from New York and raised families here.

They are just one example of a very large family full of high achievers in the area. There are thousands of others. Do people like this exist in other parts of the country and the world? Of course they do but I'm talking about people who choose to live in Southern California in places so beautiful that I could not have closed my eyes and imagined them as a child before I saw them. The thought of people like this relocating to somewhere in the middle of the country because of a fire is absurd. Maybe there is some young tech-scrote or influencer living off of credit cards who lived in the area and will now get spit-out back to Kansas but I view that as a positive for L.A. I hope that lots of weaklings leave, we'll be better for it.

Oh Gawd You all had problems and running around uninsured BEFORE this happened.

Not until you change your land and fire management.

rjp

[jyl]

https://recovery.lacounty.gov/palisades-fire/

https://recovery.lacounty.gov/eaton-fire/


Interactive mapping of the results of physical, on-ground inspection of houses in the affected areas. Inspection is about 1/2 to 2/3 complete. You can click through on any address to see details.

FWIW, my current estimate is running at about $19BN insured loss.

[RANDY P]

How many of those were on that cheesy FAIR plan?

What a mess.

[jyl]

A lot. I haven't seen numbers, but in my modeling I'm guessing FAIR was potentially as much as 60% of Palisades and 20% of Altadena.

Saw report that FAIR had 1430 houses in 90272 zip code which is very roughly half of the Palisades fire area.

Of course, FAIR doesn't have the assets to cover the loss, but that is expected and by design - these "last-resort" state-established insurance plans are meant to spread the risk over all insurers doing business in a state. Florida's last-resort flood insurance plan is similar. There will be a timing problem - how long does it take for FAIR to collect assessments vs when claims need to be paid. I'd guess CA state will step in to bridge that timing.

[Noah930]

One anesthesiologist with whom I work just found out that his Palisades house survived. His street and the street next over were spared.

The other anesthesiologist with whom I work lost his home (just a few hundred yards away from the other anesthesiologist above). He was insured via that FAIR plan. I think that offers a max of $3 mil. His home was worth around $4.5 mil. He apparently has found a rental in the hills of Encino for his family of 4.

The rental and real estate market in LA is going to go nuts. A guy I know (whom I don't really like, but I digress) is apparently trying to buy a house in coastal Orange County. He said this week his bids were all trumped by people from the Palisades. He sees many people flowing from the Palisades down to the Long Beach and Newport Beach areas (and probably all those spots in between, too). I guess if you have a job that can be done in somewhat of a remote manner, that change in geography isn't an insurmountable problem.

Heck, your kids' schools are probably gone, anyway. Just move 'em into new schools. My daughter plays on her HS soccer team. About 4 the schools in her league no longer exist. So a lot of her remaining games have been turned into friendlies.

[RANDY P]

LOL, assuming full FAIR payout, just cleaning the debris off your lot is gonna take a big chunk of your meager (under) insurance policy. All but worthless.

rjp

[craigster59]

I think this guy has the right take on Palisades real estate. Living in a burned out area/construction zone for 10 years is going to be a "no go" for a lot of people.

Permitting in an LA County area that is also governed by the Coastal Commission will be a nightmare.

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by speeder

I’m in agreement with Dan about the importance of upgrading infrastructure that is old or outdated everywhere. You want to know where a lot of states get the federal money to do this? From California taxpayers. That’s right…California is a donor state when it comes to federal tax dollars. Smaller states are recipients or welfare states, in this regard.

No doubt about it ... infrastructure just about everywhere needs upgrading... bigly.

I'll just shaddup and let folks like Dan do what they do well ... and know dang well that everything will be rebuilt ... just hope for the best.

Serious question ..now .... what about mudslides, etc.?

It's horrific... be well guys!

[onewhippedpuppy]

We don’t want your weaklings Denis, send them to Portland or something.

[Tobra]

Originally Posted by KC911

Ins. coNCm panies have been bailing, refusing to cover, or charging everyone more.... everywhere.

You can't design most large scale systems to account for everything ... out to the peripheries. It's unaffordable ... or simply logistically impossible in many cases.

I guarantee this is worse in California than any other state


California haters.


People from here unhappy what people come here and do to the place are not really California haters

[Rot 911]

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy

We don’t want your weaklings Denis, send them to Portland or something.

Too late Matt. Only beautiful people will be allowed to stay in La La Land.😂

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy

We don’t want your weaklings Denis, send them to Portland or something.

The Great Divide!

We've already got enuf on our side

[jyl]

When thinking about adequacy of insurance coverage, recall the amount is the rebuild cost not the property value, much of which is the land not the structure. Even assuming $700/sf which is utterly exorbitant, rebuilding a 3000 sf house should only be around $2.0MM ish, even if the house was valued at $4.5MM.

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by speeder

How much do you California haters want to bet right here and now that every square inch that was burned in the Palisades gets rebuilt? As always, you seem to have a basic misunderstanding of this place and think that it's just Phoenix or Cincinnati near the ocean.

Where would some super-successful people who lived in the Palisades move to, in your imagination? People live here BY CHOICE, not because it's where they were hatched and they never had the wherewithal to move anywhere else. It's a special place. Yes, it's more expensive in every way than most other places in the U.S. but the benefits in terms of recreation, natural beauty, the local economy, jobs, institutes of higher learning, restaurants, etc., make the possible replacement locations close to non-existent.

Also, people have lived in the area for generations and have deep community and professional ties, not to mention extended family. One good friend who grew up in Santa Monica Canyon, (between Pacific Palisades and Santa Monica), owns a house now in the canyon and his 85 year old father and stepmother live close by. Both houses were spared or missed by the fire, thank god. The father is one of 10 children, all very accomplished and most relocated to the Santa Monica or Palisades area decades ago from New York and raised families here.

They are just one example of a very large family full of high achievers in the area. There are thousands of others. Do people like this exist in other parts of the country and the world? Of course they do but I'm talking about people who choose to live in Southern California in places so beautiful that I could not have closed my eyes and imagined them as a child before I saw them. The thought of people like this relocating to somewhere in the middle of the country because of a fire is absurd. Maybe there is some young tech-scrote or influencer living off of credit cards who lived in the area and will now get spit-out back to Kansas but I view that as a positive for L.A. I hope that lots of weaklings leave, we'll be better for it.

No one hates California. Just the opposite. Most love it and hate to see it craped on by those that run the state. No one ever implied that the area would not be rebuilt. Just likely not by all the original owners.

Where will those that no longer have homes (but wherewithal) move to? They sure will not stay on their burned-out lot in a tent for a few years. They will move elsewhere in CA and price out those without a big chunk of insurance money to burn...or perhaps even leave the area altogether.

Some folks did not have insurance or not enough to rebuild. Some of those will certainly go elsewhere (there was already an exodus...some that fled already post here). Some will indeed go to another part of the city/state or farther to rebuild their lives. Others will follow employers that will flee or will have to seek new employment if their employer was burned out and does not reopen. For many, maybe life will not be as pleasant without the massive number of illegals that mow their grass, tend to their children and cook for them for slave wages (who will leave soon).

After enduring the high taxes, the relentless crime, filthy streets lined with addicts/homeless, and now this massive fire, some folks will decide that they just do not receive the services they pay for and come to the conclusion that LA is just too unsafe to raise a family and too expensive to retire in (unless something changes). California is indeed beautiful and there are many nice folks living there, but many folks could afford to relocate there...and choose not to. I would live there again myself if it were better run...as I have no real community ties where I am now after a lifetime of military service and constant moves. I love the climate/scenery. Currently, the risk/reward ratio is just too thin.