Depreciation

[jcommin]

Originally Posted by sc_rufctr

Fact is the *best 911s are always easy to sell & at top dollar.

If a 911 has been sitting on the market for some time - THERE'S SOMETHING WRONG WITH IT.
Also, dare I say it? If you can't afford a new 911 your really can't afford a used one either.

(*Best means the best available. Original and unmolested with nothing to spend. Period accessories are OK.)

I kinda agree with this.

[widebody911]

From my recent (but limited) experience in the 356 and in the VW bus market, things are definitely slowing down. When I was shopping for a 356 last year, I came a few nice - but not concours - 57/58/59 coupes in the $150k - $200k range. Guess what? They're all still for sale.

[sugarwood]

Originally Posted by sc_rufctr

If you can't afford a new 911 your really can't afford a used one either.

A new 911 is a $120k.
You can get a used one for $30k.
You probably don't need $90k to keep a $30k car running.
I prefer the rule of thumb, "If you can't afford two, you can't afford one"

[sugarwood]

I know a guy who is contemplating selling his GT3.
A few years ago, he bought it for $139k
He just got a trade-in offer for $132k

[onewhippedpuppy]

Seems like the rare and exceptional air cooled cars are still trading high, though probably no higher than 2 years ago. The average driver type cars with overly optimistic asking prices are the ones sitting. I've seen a variety of SC, Carrera, and 964 coupes in the $30k range that aren't selling instantly. I still kick around buying one as a DD but it's really hard to conceive of an average SC coupe over a 996TT.

[epbrown]

Originally Posted by manbridge 74

I'm guessing the next generation won't have to have nav/sat/bt in the car. It will somehow be inside their own body.

I wouldn't go that far, but even now I'm wondering why carmakers bother with ICE - all you really need is an interface for the owner's smart phone, which will provide navigation, music, video, calling, etc. My old pickup has the latest tech because it's got a phone mount.

I think it was only a matter of time until the 986/996 cars eroded the air-cooled market with their depreciation, because there's a driver market and a collector market. If someone wants an old Porsche to drive, the 9x6 cars are, in many ways, better cars, more readily available, and now they're cheaper. You can buy a nice 996 and fix the IMS issues and still come in under what you'd pay for a nice SC/Carrera.

The collectors will keep the prices of the nicest SC/Carreras up there and- like the 356 and long hoods - they'll eventually find their level and stay there.

[CalPersFatCat]

Originally Posted by sugarwood

I know a guy who is contemplating selling his GT3.
A few years ago, he bought it for $139k
He just got a trade-in offer for $132k

This is exactly what I referred to in post #55 in this thread.

I don't see how a GT3 qualifies as a low production vehicle, per Tabs explanation of why/how these cars are so strong, 8-10 years later.

On the other hand, I have lived in Cincinnati for two years and have seen exactly zero GT3's around town. So maybe they are "rare"... I guess I could investigate production numbers compared to 2003 F360's and 2005 F430's. (which seem to be at about the same price point or less)

DL

1988 Porsche 911 Turbo Newport Beach CA 18547356

A 40% decline in price? Is this the bubble? If a 45,000 Turbo is $85,000, then what's everything else worth?

Without an accident, what would it be worth?

[sammyg2]

The prices went waaaaay too high because greedy little speculators got carried away.
Now prices are starting to return to non-crazy levels i.e. dropping like as rock.

All the greedy bastages are trying to prop up the prices but all they are really doing is sitting on inventory as it depreciates faster than day old bread.
In the end they'll looose their arses and eventually prices will fall back down to near-reasonable.

[Deschodt]

Originally Posted by sammyg2

In the end they'll looose their arses and eventually prices will fall back down to near-reasonable.

I wish you were right - well you may be, that depends on your definition of near-reasonable, but I fear the increase in publicity over those cars (the Magnus, Emory, Luftgekuhl, Rennsport etc..) created even more awareness and the internet facilitated a worldwide demand, and the supply is a fixed number.. I agree with you that those prices don't make sense on fun/$ ratio, but I fear they're not going back down to pre-madness levels... Ever... Maybe from stratosphere to troposphere (yes I looked it up)

In my book it's worse for 356s. Having sold mine and kinda sorta wanting one again, I don't see the logic of $100K for a 356SC. It's adorable, but not 100K adorable... At least the 911s go a little faster and louder... Honestly I'm a little bitter/annoyed that I've been priced out of my hobby at this point (alfa, porsche, BMW, Mercs, anything from the 60s/early 70s is now 4x what it was 5/10 y ago)

[svandamme]

Originally Posted by Deschodt

I wish you were right - well you may be, that depends on your definition of near-reasonable, but I fear the increase in publicity over those cars (the Magnus, Emory, Luftgekuhl, Rennsport etc..) created even more awareness and the internet facilitated a worldwide demand, and the supply is a fixed number.. I agree with you that those prices don't make sense on fun/$ ratio, but I fear they're not going back down to pre-madness levels... Ever... Maybe from stratosphere to troposphere (yes I looked it up)

Agreed, Magnus buying them up like hotcakes, in Europe we have State of Art a clothing brand that did the same.
They use em for advertisement in all sorts of businesses, simply get an 'iconic car, drive your name around in style.. '

The earlies will never drop in price, nor will the other good air cooled 911's.
To many people are invested in making money off them now, and they buy em up to make a buck. They hype them, and chop them up for parts.
Every one that is chopped up, means 3 things :
1 less on the market : higher price for the ones that remain
2 a set of papers on the loose for use by thieves.

[sc_rufctr]

Meanwhile from the new movie Atomic Blonde.

[Seahawk]

Originally Posted by Deschodt

I agree with you that those prices don't make sense on fun/$ ratio, but I fear they're not going back down to pre-madness levels... Ever... Maybe from stratosphere to troposphere (yes I looked it up)

... Honestly I'm a little bitter/annoyed that I've been priced out of my hobby at this point (alfa, porsche, BMW, Mercs, anything from the 60s/early 70s is now 4x what it was 5/10 y ago)

Could not agree more, especially the last sentence. I can afford to buy what I am looking for (a 70's/80's Targa), the problem is that I have owned a lot of early 911 models and they don't pencil out for me as a value proposition.

Same for a lot of other vintage rides: I have owned two 356, 60's VW bus, a 70's 2002, a 80's 560, we had Alphas and Jags when I was a kid, etc. I am not paying $15k for a 4 speed 2002. Not going to happen.

Maybe when they get back to Cumulonimbus altitude

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by Deschodt

I wish you were right - well you may be, that depends on your definition of near-reasonable, but I fear the increase in publicity over those cars (the Magnus, Emory, Luftgekuhl, Rennsport etc..) created even more awareness and the internet facilitated a worldwide demand, and the supply is a fixed number.. I agree with you that those prices don't make sense on fun/$ ratio, but I fear they're not going back down to pre-madness levels... Ever... Maybe from stratosphere to troposphere (yes I looked it up)

In my book it's worse for 356s. Having sold mine and kinda sorta wanting one again, I don't see the logic of $100K for a 356SC. It's adorable, but not 100K adorable... At least the 911s go a little faster and louder... Honestly I'm a little bitter/annoyed that I've been priced out of my hobby at this point (alfa, porsche, BMW, Mercs, anything from the 60s/early 70s is now 4x what it was 5/10 y ago)

Agreed, I doubt we'll ever see 911SCs for $12k again or mid-80's carreras for $18k.

But I don't see how SCs can realistically stay in the $35k range either. no way.

I'm hoping that decent 70's carreras will eventually drop back down to mid teens and SCs will get down to $20k.
I believe that's what they are really worth.
Maybe that's too optimistic, only time will tell.

As soon as the speculators stop jacking the prices up we'll see what the market will do.

[911boost]

I agree with this thread, specifically what Matt said about choosing between an older air cooled car and the 996TT.

I am obviously biased towards the 996TT.

Bill

[epbrown]

Originally Posted by sammyg2

Agreed, I doubt we'll ever see 911SCs for $12k again or mid-80's carreras for $18k.

But I don't see how SCs can realistically stay in the $35k range either. no way.

I'm hoping that decent 70's carreras will eventually drop back down to mid teens and SCs will get down to $20k.
I believe that's what they are really worth.
Maybe that's too optimistic, only time will tell.

As soon as the speculators stop jacking the prices up we'll see what the market will do.

I think you might be better off snapping up a nice 996/986 before prices on those go crazy.

[Deschodt]

I think all agree on the sentiment, but numbers are tricky... I fear that like me you have a "correct" pricing (from a certain era) engraved in your databanks and the current pricing will never make sense again.

Like you I had an SC and to me they are forever 15-20K cars. I'm not denying current value, but I ran one for 15 years and at $35K they are too slow and maintenance intensive vs a used Cayman S for me. But if you're a newcomer to the aircooled world and make a decent salary, $35K is not *that* farfetched, so I fear they will stay there...

Those which make little sense to me are $250K early 911 S (at least in relation to the $50-70K 911Ts you can still find), the $100K 356 coupes with "impale me steering column" and a whopping 60 hp, or the rumored 70+K 912s.. And to be clear those are all cars I've owned and love and wouldn't mind another example of, but I suppose we all have our personal Fun / Cost curve and to me almost every old car from the 60s-70s has jumped the shark on that chart in my head...

Funny the 2002 was mentioned... i have one too, until recently it was the only car I knew that was still under the curve, but no more.... A nice Tii is 30-35 now... A need-nothing base car is way over 15 already...

So now (rant somewhat on) I'm stuck with a few cars that have become valuable (I know boo-hoo) which I drive less because the cost of keeping them nice or mechanically sound tripled, and I fear a texting idiot will crash into me and reduce value. I also can't customize them too much or I lose $, which I agree is my decision but who likes to piss money ? And I cannot justify buying any other bucket list cars from that era because they're just not worth THAT $ to me. Best thing I can think of is trading and pretending we went back 10y in pricing... We should start a website for trades...

Anybody wanna trade a mint 72T for a mint 356A or C or SC ?

[Seahawk]

Originally Posted by Deschodt

I...And to be clear those are all cars I've owned and love and wouldn't mind another example of, but I suppose we all have our personal Fun / Cost curve and to me almost every old car from the 60s-70s has jumped the shark on that chart in my head.

That is what I meant to write!

Well done.

[onewhippedpuppy]

Very good point about the "correct" pricing being ingrained. I paid a whopping $4500 for my driver quality 1970 911T in 2003, and it was in fact my daily driver for a year. The same car today would probably be $50k. No effing way....

I think it would be fun to get a scruffy mid-year or SC, mechanically upgrade it, and drive it daily. Maybe those will eventually come back to sane levels. I am noticing that the optimistic priced cars seem to just be sitting now, which is a positive.

[Craig T]

I think the biggest lunacy was the frankenstein and backdate "hot rod" 911's. The short-lived rock star status of the R-Gruppe and Magnus Walker caused a quick spike in cars that were historically worth peanuts. Two years ago you could backdate a 75-76 impact bumper car into a long hood with fiberglass hood and bumpers, stick on ST or RSR flares, drop in a 3.2 motor, paint it viper green or tangerine and sell it for $100,000 plus. A lot of shops jumped on the bandwagon. Now I see these frankensteins and backdates falling hard.

I wouldn't want to be one of the guys who paid $300K for a Singer ten years from now.