Bubble finally deflating?

[Skwerl]

Originally Posted by rdwinelover

I am still surprised that people think this is a Porsche bubble. If you broaden your outlook, you will see that this is global and across all luxury. We are in a massive bubble from government intervention, QE / currency manipulation. When it pops, it won't be Porsche popping. You also might not be worrying about the value of your toy but about the security of your job or the value of your home. It's only when the good times are over that the bubble will pop and by then, people won't be thinking, man, finally I can buy hat 400k GT3RS 4.0 I have been waiting for to come down. People will be worrying about their IRA account and this time it won't be a V shaped recovery. It will take a decade to rid the damage that the fed has done.

This all according to history, not prophecy.

...b-b-but...they aren't making air-cooled 911s anymore! They can only go up!

[cover]

Originally Posted by Skwerl

...b-b-but...they aren't making air-cooled 911s anymore! They can only go up!

Whats your point?
The fact that the entire global economy may be one huge bubble waiting to burst, has nothing in particular to do with the 911 market.

[Skwerl]

Originally Posted by cover

Whats your point?
Most people know that the entire global economy may be one huge bubble waiting to burst.
This has nothing, in particular, to do with the 911 market.

I've seen quite a few posters argue over the last year that air-cooled 911s couldn't possibly go down again, because they don't make them any more and they're only just now approaching their real value and several other "seriously, THIS time it's not a bubble!" types of reasons.

Which isn't to say that it definitely is a bubble on the brink of collapse, just that the last 18 months show how much of the market depends on herd psychology and the whims of wealthy collectors.

[cover]

Originally Posted by Skwerl

I've seen quite a few posters argue over the last year that air-cooled 911s couldn't possibly go down again, because they don't make them any more and they're only just now approaching their real value and several other "seriously, THIS time it's not a bubble!" types of reasons.

Yeah, but the global bubble theory does not exactly have much to do with the 911 bubble prophecy.

[Reddy Kilowatt]

Oh, jeez. Time to move this thread to the loonie board.

[NYNick]

Look...
It's all BS until you actually go and try to buy one of these in good to nice condition. Not in 2011, not in 2012, not last year...today! I'm not really interested in your success story of 2 years ago. I'm interested in your buying experience today, not your observation of what's for sale or what's not selling.
After you've shopped seriously a bit, like many of the 'want to buy' guys on these forums have shared, then get back to us about the so called bubble. Until then...it's just speculation, and in my opinion, not valid.

[Skwerl]

Originally Posted by cover

Yeah, but the global bubble theory does not exactly have much to do with the 911 bubble prophecy.

Ignoring the possibility for 911s to go back down in the future is ignoring the possibility of a global bubble, where all sorts of luxury goods are up across the board.

Originally Posted by NYNick

Until then...it's just speculation, and in my opinion, not valid.

It's also speculation to maintain that it's not a bubble, the market will stay strong forever and prices won't ever go down.

Really the whole debate is tiring because nobody knows the future, bubble deniers and believers alike.

[2ndTARGA]

Well, some of us are old enough to remember the bust in the early 90's. I saw a formerly $1M Ferrari F40 sell for $350K to name just one example. So anything can happen.

And there's demographics as well. When I started going to car shows the "can't loose" investment cars were, believe it or not, top-level Model A's. This caused any Model A that still sat on 4 wheels to be dragged out and restored and flogged. Then it was T-birds, and so on. This article sums it up well: Baby Boomers Created the Classic-Car Market—and Could Crash It – Feature – Car and Driver

But wait, none of us Porsche owners will never get too old to care, right? Hmmm, maybe all those cheap Tips are worth a 2nd look. I could store a bunch of them for 10 years and make a killing!

[Skwerl]

Originally Posted by 2ndTARGA

Well, some of us are old enough to remember the bust in the early 90's. I saw a formerly $1M Ferrari F40 sell for $350K to name just one example. So anything can happen.

Yeah, I almost brought that into it but didn't want to belabor the point. Back in that Ferrari boom, you can bet that every one of those guys would tell you till they're blue in the face that this time was different, it wasn't a bubble, they aren't makin' 'em like that any more, they'll only go up from here, etc.

In fact, it's part and parcel to any legitimate bubble that a large contingency believes with utmost certainty that they can't lose; otherwise, they wouldn't be buying.

I wouldn't be surprised if unmodded Supras and GTRs become the hot collectible in 10 years or so.

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by 2ndTARGA

Well, some of us are old enough to remember the bust in the early 90's. I saw a formerly $1M Ferrari F40 sell for $350K to name just one example. So anything can happen.

And there's demographics as well. When I started going to car shows the "can't loose" investment cars were, believe it or not, top-level Model A's. This caused any Model A that still sat on 4 wheels to be dragged out and restored and flogged. Then it was T-birds, and so on. This article sums it up well: Baby Boomers Created the Classic-Car Market—and Could Crash It – Feature – Car and Driver

But wait, none of us Porsche owners will never get too old to care, right? Hmmm, maybe all those cheap Tips are worth a 2nd look. I could store a bunch of them for 10 years and make a killing!

Your first paragraph and the rest of your post are two different things all together. Taking just your later comments, you aren't talking about a bubble bursting. You are talking about genuine market revaluation and an article that explains why it is happening. That thing is/will play out over a decade or more. A bubble bursting is akin to your Ferrari example. It is near instantaneous. And it involves a significant percentage of the car's value disappearing overnight.

Will the value of air cooled 911s decline 20 or 30 years from now? Quite possibly. Do I personally care? Not one bit because I will still be driving mine.

[pmax]

Originally Posted by Matt Monson

...
Will the value of air cooled 911s decline 20 or 30 years from now? Quite possibly. Do I personally care? Not one bit because I will still be driving mine.

Agreed.

The value of these cars has to derive from the fact that people still enjoy and relish the unique driving experience they offer

... otherwise they might as well be the Duesenbergs of this era, anyone still buy those these days ?

Having said that, I must admit I've yet to see a 930 or a longhood being driven around in the south bay.

Heck, I see more 356's than those !

[2ndTARGA]

Your first paragraph and the rest of your post are two different things all together.

Yes, well spotted as my Brit friends would say. I was indeed making two different points in one post - and they both relate to the invincibility (or lack thereof) of an investment in any car. One, bubble, is a short term risk, the other is longer term. Both point toward buying a car, any car, for personal reasons, not for short or long-term potential gain.

[universeman]

Originally Posted by Reddy Kilowatt

Oh, jeez. Time to move this thread to the loonie board.

Quantitative easing as a Fed policy to prevent deflation (i.e. bubble bursting) is a documented reality. If the Fed thinks printing money will keep prices from going down, they're correct, and any economics professor can confirm that.

The only question is: how long can this go on before the bubble bursts anyway? We saw in 2001, 1987, 1929, etc., that it cannot go on forever. No loonies here.

[silverc4s]

Originally Posted by pmax

Agreed.

The value of these cars has to derive from the fact that people still enjoy and relish the unique driving experience they offer

... otherwise they might as well be the Duesenbergs of this era, anyone still buy those these days ?

Having said that, I must admit I've yet to see a 930 or a longhood being driven around in the south bay.

Heck, I see more 356's than those !

Twenty years ago, along with others I drove my long hoods around the Bay Area. Then it became so congested that I could no longer get from Willow Glen to an open road, so I took my long hoods and moved to Texas. Lots of long hoods around here.. Lots of air cooled cars of all ages actually...

[rdwinelover]

I drive a long hood and multiple 1976 930's weekly in the North bay.

[comintern]

Originally Posted by Skwerl

Personally, I watch the 993TT market and there is currently a huge surplus of available cars on commoner peasant websites like eBay, Cars.com, Autotrader, etc. Granted, they are priced high, but it should serve as a cap and might exert some downward pressure as the cars continue to sit for months on end. To me it also shows that collectors might not be singing the same "they'll only go up up up!" tune they were last year, or they might just be way more picky and demand only the finest sub-10k milers.

I see the same thing. So many 993tt on the market its incredible.

[wm711]

Didn't I just recently see a $600K S in black, RHD? Or was I dreaming.

[Reddy Kilowatt]

Originally Posted by comintern

I see the same thing. So many 993tt on the market its incredible.

Sometimes anomalous data looks like a trend.

[techweenie]

Originally Posted by Reddy Kilowatt

Sometimes anomalous data looks like a trend.

Ah, you mean like a single rusty 911S Soft window sold cheap at a hot rod auction appearing to some to be the 'end of the bubble?'

[Reddy Kilowatt]

Originally Posted by techweenie

Ah, you mean like a single rusty 911S Soft window sold cheap at a hot rod auction appearing to some to be the 'end of the bubble?'

I wouldn't call that anomolous data, I'd just say that's a data point that's misunderstood or misconstrued.