Bubble finally deflating?

[Nick Triesch]

My point is that all collectables can go way up or they can go way down. Antiques market or classic car market. People who buy a long hood 911 for $170,000 are taking a big chance with the market. A few years ago Catlin antique radios were thousands on ebay. Now in a good market they are down thousands. Also, there are just too many air cooled Porsche 911's. There are still thousands out there. This no different that a 1924 Gibson F5 Lloyd Loar mandolin selling for $250,000 a few years ago. Now they are trying to sell them for $95,000. What goes up, must come down.

[Nick Triesch]

I go on fun drives to our San Diego outback all the time. Who gives a **** if it is worth $10,000 less if I sell it in 5 years. I had fun.

[NYNick]

Understood Matt.

My point was that since he's having such a hard time finding a nice, inexpensive or even reasonably priced 911, the bubble is in itself non existent.

Our posts are only as valid as the most recent purchases, not the posts 'for sale'. There are no deals on 911's anymore. The cat's been out of the bag for a few years now. No one knows that better than you, although many have opinions one way or the other.

[cover]

Originally Posted by Nick Triesch

Also, there are just too many air cooled Porsche 911's.

In relation to what?
Definitely not in relation to demand.

It is my unscientific and unconfirmed belief that demand is mainly driven by enthusiasm for these cars, rather than financial speculation.
So I don't see demand declining anytime soon.

[Sox Fan]

Originally Posted by NYNick

Understood Matt.


Our posts are only as valid as the most recent purchases, not the posts 'for sale'. There are no deals on 911's anymore. The cat's been out of the bag for a few years now. No one knows that better than you, although many have opinions one way or the other.

Good point.

Seems like most of the actual "data" shared in these discussions start with "when I bought my car 2/3/5 years ago......".

Or, "been looking for 6 months and can't find a good one without spending ridiculous money".

[techweenie]

Originally Posted by Sox Fan

Good point.

Seems like most of the actual "data" shared in these discussions start with "when I bought my car 2/3/5 years ago......".

Or, "been looking for 6 months and can't find a good one without spending ridiculous money".

Yup.

71 911E Sunroof Project

[pavulon]

pretty nice G50 coupe w/ 85K miles sold on eBay for $36.4K
Porsche 911 Carrera 911 G50 | eBay _trksid=p2055119.m1438.l2649&ssPageName=STRK%3AMEB IDX%3AIT

[bobbyp]

Originally Posted by pavulon

pretty nice G50 coupe w/ 85K miles sold on eBay for $36.4K
Porsche 911 Carrera 911 G50 | eBay _trksid=p2055119.m1438.l2649&ssPageName=STRK%3AMEB IDX%3AIT

That is a nice looking car priced right. Just shows that a car priced fairly will sell, seller obviously didn't have some wild reserve price. Unusual color but I happen to like it.
Seller wrote like he knew something about these cars. If I didn't buy a car recently it would have definitely been on my list.

[COLB]

Looks like a nice car, well bought. Cassis red challenges the theory that any unusual color is worth a premium, though. Let's face it -- the car is pink.

There is some curious damage on the rear of the engine compartment -- perhaps it was mashed when a PO was converting the A/C to R-134a.

My issue with the car is the "emotional" descriptors in the ad -- the clutch "feels" great; the brakes "feel like new" the A/C "seems" to blow cool, etc.

This is all dealer speak that "seems" to describe the condition -- but really doesn't. Hey, it "seems" like it is original paint, and has a strong engine, but I really don't know 'cause I only drove the car 1500 miles. But I am going to make a bunch of speculative claims anyway, that are probably not backed by paperwork.

I hate the equivocal language in ads like that.

[McLovin]

A true Condition 1 ("spectacular") 356 Speedster with a pre-auction estimate of $430,000 sold for $286,000 at Russo and Steele in Scottsdale.

This is much lower than it would have got a year ago.

[billh1963]

Prices going into the Fall will tell the true story. At the end of the driving season prices usually tend to fall in a "stable" market. If things really are cooling down there will be a lot of cars for sale with buyers only picking up the less expensive cars.

[93097004xx]

Impact bumper cars have just started to climb. These cars will continue to gain interest.

[2ndTARGA]

HAGI™P Index is designed to measure the rare collector's Porsche automobile market, ranging from the 1950s to the new millenium. Due to the representative character of this group this index can be used as a valuable tool to monitor the price development from any rare single Porsche to an entire collection of this marque. HAGI P is an integral part of our overall index universe, a sub index of HAGI Top. HAGI-P is weighted according to our estimate of surviving cars in the relevant models.

Up 4.72% YTD (through May) but the recent trend is down: -3.3% in April and -1.74% in May.

2014 performance was +32.06%, so 2H 15 needs to be very strong or else the hockey stick uptrend may be flattening out.........or just taking a breather if you're a glass half full type.

[belly dancer]

Any rear-engine, air-cooled high-performance car
from the genius, Dr. Ferdinand Porsche.

Or, all 911's from the '70's.

"Desirability is the great unknown
in measuring something's value."

[belly dancer]

The rear-engine, air-cooled Porsche 911 has permanently
established itself world-wide, and will always be very, very highly valued.

[COLB]

Originally Posted by 2ndTARGA

HAGI™P Index is designed to measure the rare collector's Porsche automobile market, ranging from the 1950s to the new millenium. Due to the representative character of this group this index can be used as a valuable tool to monitor the price development from any rare single Porsche to an entire collection of this marque. HAGI P is an integral part of our overall index universe, a sub index of HAGI Top. HAGI-P is weighted according to our estimate of surviving cars in the relevant models.

Up 4.72% YTD (through May) but the recent trend is down: -3.3% in April and -1.74% in May.

2014 performance was +32.06%, so 2H 15 needs to be very strong or else the hockey stick uptrend may be flattening out.........or just taking a breather if you're a glass half full type.

I don't know how HAGI actually assesses values -- presumably through some sort of sales data.

The supply of cars for sale has definitely been up, and the quality is coming down as people are emptying out the garages.

Values for good cars have not dropped from what I can see -- certainly not if BaT is any indication.

[78CabrioCarrera]

I also think it is a worldwide " car guy" market

in the 70s-80s these 911s were common in the USA and western Europe ,

but a poster on the wall "dream" in many other parts of the world like Eastern Europe , and much of Asia,

Now they are available to many of the "dreamers" who have money.

but that does not mean that a plain 911 SC is worth 50k plus , just that there is a larger market than before.....

Everything has a bubble , I am hoping my collection of Beanie Babies rebounds to its peak

[Nick Triesch]

Yup, and California home prices will never go down....right. When markets go down and you enter into a recession , all luxury item fall fast and no one buys until things get better. Boats took a terrible beating during the last recession. The happiest two days in a man's life is the day he buys a boat and the day he sell his boat. Kind of like the people who buy hot tubs for $8000 and use them 4 times. Then after 7 years they have the rotting tub hauled away.

[COLB]

Boats and houses are not really comparables to classic cars.

Even so, good houses in good locations have LONG since recovered from the "housing bubble" and are worth more than they were in 2007. Slapdash houses in the outer suburbs of most cities haven't, and probably never will.

THe marginal houses in marginal locations haven't.

Try buying a "post bubble" house on Coronado Island. Or pretty much anywhere in San Francisco. Or within 20 miles of DC. etc.

I'm sure there is a market for used, classic boats, but it is minuscule compared to cars.

[Nachtfalter]

You guys are comparing the mortgage scandal and resulting crash to a long overdue, and natural, price adjustment to air cooled Porsches?

That's simply admitting you have no idea what the mortgage fraud was all about