That's it. I'm calling the top of the bubble.

[Macroni]

https://bringatrailer.com/listing/1972-porsche-911t-7/

Better reflection of bubble burst....

[93097004xx]

Originally Posted by Macroni

https://bringatrailer.com/listing/1972-porsche-911t-7/

Better reflection of bubble burst....

Umm that's $4000 more than hagerty says that car is worth...

https://www.hagerty.com/apps/valuationtools/1972-Porsche-911-T?id=81133

Can I say there is no bubble. Just a price correction LONG OVERDUE.

Will these cars go up and down over the years? Yes.

One place I do take issue with is ebay motors.. How many $100,000 auctions there I have seen end at $846.18 and that took 26 bids and 7 days.

I feel ebay motors has become a total JOKE and cannot be relied upon to gauge market values even at the capacity of novelty entertainment.

Why do sellers even bother listing vintage porsche on that site I can't understand?

[NYNick]

There's an arsehole in every group. If you look around and can't find him, you're him!

[MrBonus]

Originally Posted by Macroni

https://bringatrailer.com/listing/1972-porsche-911t-7/

Better reflection of bubble burst....

That car had some body panel fitment issues that likely scared away buyers. BaT is a fickle audience, especially since so many buy at distance on the site.

[1979-930]

Originally Posted by Rick Brooklyn

CDS wouldn't be the right instrument for shorting though. You should be able to borrow some shares from someone who has them (for a fee) then sell them to someone who wants to go long, then buy them back from someone who wants to sell and deliver them back to who lent them to you.

I'm kidding. I haven't shorted anything in years. I found focusing on my business works better than the stock market ever did. It takes a lot of time to follow stocks at that level.

But I do think it's likely I'll see this fund on an episode of American Greed in a few years.




Sent from my iPhone while Driving

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by 1979-930

I'm kidding. I haven't shorted anything in years. I found focusing on my business works better than the stock market ever did. It takes a lot of time to follow stocks at that level.

But I do think it's likely I'll see this fund on an episode of American Greed in a few years.

Sent from my iPhone while Driving

This.

[manbridge 74]

The 72T is fairly far from original and that's what brings out the big dollars. Looks like a nice driver if you have to have a long hood.

[misterwaterfall]

Originally Posted by Rick Brooklyn

My guess is if you want to sell and you can't find a buyer, you get a bid at lower than cost or market, minus a healthy discount.

CDS wouldn't be the right instrument for shorting though. You should be able to borrow some shares from someone who has them (for a fee) then sell them to someone who wants to go long, then buy them back from someone who wants to sell and deliver them back to who lent them to you.

I know a CDS isn't the right product which is why I put CDS type product, my statement was probably confusing. Good luck getting barrows in a dark illiquid market though.

[trader220]

Originally Posted by Rick Brooklyn

My guess is if you want to sell and you can't find a buyer, you get a bid at lower than cost or market, minus a healthy discount.

CDS wouldn't be the right instrument for shorting though. You should be able to borrow some shares from someone who has them (for a fee) then sell them to someone who wants to go long, then buy them back from someone who wants to sell and deliver them back to who lent them to you.

I made the same joke a year ago.... given my screen name and my 21 years as a derivatives trader in addition to the fact that I am in the Porsche business now, I frequently get PM's asking about the global capital markets and the Porsche markets.

I said a months maybe a year ago when people started asking me about cars as an asset class for their porfolio its time to short the market. I was asking for a CDS on collector cars as a joke knowing its technically not the right derivative to capitalize on the falling market but... No one has actually monetized their collection. No one has sold equity participation's in their collections. Technically what you would need is some type of OTC derivative on a collection with some agreed upon benchmark.

I also think that boat has sailed and even if you could short the market via some sort of derivative the premium on that derivative would be and should be priced pretty high given the falling market.

[Jrboulder]

I think that the owner profile has changed from what it was 5 years ago. These days it seems like more owners are on their first Porsche, not their 3rd or 5th Porsche. It's hard to believe people who waited until this point to get into an SC are actually going to hold onto it forever. When they get tired of it and start selling in greater numbers and don't buy another old Porsche that's when you've got a real problem.

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by Jrboulder

I think that the owner profile has changed from what it was 5 years ago. These days it seems like more owners are on their first Porsche, not their 3rd or 5th Porsche. It's hard to believe people who waited until this point to get into an SC are actually going to hold onto it forever. When they get tired of it and start selling in greater numbers and don't buy another old Porsche that's when you've got a real problem.

A lot of it is Millennials. You've got all these guys 35-45yo who just hit a sweet spot in their earning curve. I don't know how many references I've seen in the last few years to buying an SC from the year they were born. And in many instances over on RL I see guys who have a GT3 or Cayman in the garage who want an SC or Carrera for their first air cooled car. Frequently the same Millennial. I think a lot of the bump in IB pricing is directly tied to one large well funded demographic of men.

[Jrboulder]

Originally Posted by Matt Monson

A lot of it is Millennials. You've got all these guys 35-45yo who just hit a sweet spot in their earning curve. I don't know how many references I've seen in the last few years to buying an SC from the year they were born. And in many instances over on RL I see guys who have a GT3 or Cayman in the garage who want an SC or Carrera for their first air cooled car. Frequently the same Millennial. I think a lot of the bump in IB pricing is directly tied to one large well funded demographic of men.

FWIW 35-45 is outside pretty much all definitions of millennial. A millenial would be in the Carrera 3.2 to 993 era. I'm personally of the 964 era.

I think for every 1 guy putting an SC next to their modern Porsche you've got 5 or 10 who are new to Porsches.

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by Jrboulder

FWIW 35-45 is outside pretty much all definitions of millennial. A millenial would be in the Carrera 3.2 to 993 era. I'm personally of the 964 era.

I think for every 1 guy putting an SC next to their modern Porsche you've got 5 or 10 who are new to Porsches.

Oops, I carried the 1 in the tens place backwards. I was thinking born in the 80s defines a millennial. I left off the youngest ones because I didn't figure that many 20-25 yo are buying these cars.

[Rick Brooklyn]

45 year olds are squarely Gen-X, aka the greatest generation since the Greatest Generation.

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by Rick Brooklyn

45 year olds are squarely Gen-X, aka the greatest generation since the Greatest Generation.

Please read my follow up post. I know when they are, I just added a decade instead of subtracting one when grouping them by age. I suffer from math dyslexia.

[Rick Brooklyn]

Originally Posted by Matt Monson

Please read my follow up post. I know when they are, I just added a decade instead of subtracting one when grouping them by age. I suffer from math dyslexia.

I know but I really wanted to write that

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by Rick Brooklyn

I know but I really wanted to write that

Sorry, major pet peeve of mine is off topic minutiae. I don't mind making a mistake. I dislike when the mistake becomes the basis for a whole off topic debate. What years Millennials are isn't open to debate. Whether or not these hipster kids with cash in their pockets for the first time would rather spend their $30k on an Old analog SC or a shiny new Camry is the question.

[Alan A]

Subaru...

Their dads drive camrys

[ficke]

If something goes up in a saw tooth pattern on a graph is every one of those bumps a bubble?
If you look at stuff in a short view or are new to air cooled Porsche it must indeed look like a bubble now.
But let's put some number's and real life experiences and cars as examples that I have owned to put this "bubble " in perspective.
In 1980 a 1967 911S was about 5-7K. By the 90's they were about 10K by 2000 they might bring 12K, very slow rise compared to other sports cars. I was ridiculed for paying 15K in 2002 for a 1967 911S, the 67 911S barely doubled in 20 years.
Then there was this mad rush and crazy increase in value on these cars and the went up to 50K by 2007, I sold thinking that was the bubble and the price increase was tied to the ATM view of house equity and the easy money of the housing market. 6 months after selling the 67S, I was called by the flipper I sold it to asking if I wanted to buy the car back for what I sold it for or maybe a little less, the burst of the "Bubble" was confirmed to me. 1967 911S were topped out at $50,000.
Then the price went up again on these cars and then I was offered $115k for my 68S last year before this "bubble" popped.
So is the pop going to bring cars back down to 2007 prices of $50K? or the 2002 prices of $15K on SWB S 911?
I do not think so, the days of long hood 911's as a cheap entry into Porsche ownership are over, we now think 50k for a T as a pop of the bubble? That only seems cheap if you have been playing with these early Porsche for a few years.
In my view it is still high price and a very miner correction in the market of early Porsche 911's.
They need to come down another 50% before I would consider this a bubble that burst. Because the bubble started over 10 years ago.
I need to see a nice driver 67 911S for $50,000 again, other wise this is a miner slow down in the big picture and not a bubble.

[nathanbs]

Originally Posted by ficke

If something goes up in a saw tooth pattern on a graph is every one of those bumps a bubble?
If you look at stuff in a short view or are new to air cooled Porsche it must indeed look like a bubble now.
But let's put some number's and real life experiences and cars as examples that I have owned to put this "bubble " in perspective.
In 1980 a 1967 911S was about 5-7K. By the 90's they were about 10K by 2000 they might bring 12K, very slow rise compared to other sports cars. I was ridiculed for paying 15K in 2002 for a 1967 911S, the 67 911S barely doubled in 20 years.
Then there was this mad rush and crazy increase in value on these cars and the went up to 50K by 2007, I sold thinking that was the bubble and the price increase was tied to the ATM view of house equity and the easy money of the housing market. 6 months after selling the 67S, I was called by the flipper I sold it to asking if I wanted to buy the car back for what I sold it for or maybe a little less, the burst of the "Bubble" was confirmed to me. 1967 911S were topped out at $50,000.
Then the price went up again on these cars and then I was offered $115k for my 68S last year before this "bubble" popped.
So is the pop going to bring cars back down to 2007 prices of $50K? or the 2002 prices of $15K on SWB S 911?
I do not think so, the days of long hood 911's as a cheap entry into Porsche ownership are over, we now think 50k for a T as a pop of the bubble? That only seems cheap if you have been playing with these early Porsche for a few years.
In my view it is still high price and a very miner correction in the market of early Porsche 911's.
They need to come down another 50% before I would consider this a bubble that burst. Because the bubble started over 10 years ago.
I need to see a nice driver 67 911S for $50,000 again, other wise this is a miner slow down in the big picture and not a bubble.

Well put and spot on in my opinion. I would be worried if porsche's were disproportionately higher priced than other cars that were similar or perhaps better but that's not the case as I still feel that they are one of the best bangs for the buck in many many ways