That's it. I'm calling the top of the bubble.

[nathanbs]

To follow what I just put I will say that if I ever sell any of my cars I would have a really difficult time finding something else for the same or less money that I can enjoy nearly as much

[ficke]

Originally Posted by nathanbs

Well put and spot on in my opinion. I would be worried if porsche's were disproportionately higher priced than other cars that were similar or perhaps better but that's not the case as I still feel that they are one of the best bangs for the buck in many many ways

Thanks Nathanbs.
The direct Ferrari competition to the long hood 911 from Ferrari was the Dino 246 which are price around $350,000, The E type jags of that time are around $100K now. and so on.
I too still feel like 911's are just coming into their own with the competition of the time and are some what of a bang for the buck deal in many ways.

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by ficke

this is a minor slow down in the big picture and not a bubble.

Only quoted what is truly relevant in that post, though it is all pretty much dead on. with spellchecking.

[Rick Brooklyn]

Yeah I'm not really a bubble man myself, but I got excited looking at that investment vehicle (pun intended).

However I do think that prices of normal cars (not the super collector pieces) one day could disintegrate if they prohibit driving on public roads or if massive electrification leads to severe loss of infrastructure, or both. But hopefully that'll be long after all of us have shuffled off this mortal coil.

[Matt Monson]

Yeah, then there's that. I've come to terms with the fact that I will never sell my business when I retire because about the time I retire there won't be transmissions in Porsches anymore.

[ficke]

Rick, I think cars used for transportation will disappear if oil becomes prohibitively expensive to use it that way. But oil/ gasoline will never be to much for people who enjoy cars just for fun.
Just like horses, nobody rides them as grocery getters anymore but they still are immensely popular as a hobby.
So I do not think there ever will be a time we can not go drive are Porsches for fun.

Matt, I did my best with the spell check.

[ficke]

Originally Posted by Matt Monson

Yeah, then there's that. I've come to terms with the fact that I will never sell my business when I retire because about the time I retire there won't be transmissions in Porsches anymore.

I do not know the volume you need to stay profitable, but You might have a niche market with Porsche obsolete transmission parts in years to come.

[ficke]

I reread my posts, I am pretty clumsy writer, I will do better.
My formal education or lack of it really shows now with my writing on the computer.

[rdwinelover]

For a comparison with regards to something I know incredibly well.

Wine funds became popular about 10 years ago predominantly in the UK. A lot of wine chat boards called the it the top of the market. Since then prices of Burgundy and Bordeaux have ripped. Maybe Domaines and Chateaus have doubled and tripled in price. Life is a big dart board but prices always continue to go up.

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by ficke

Matt, I did my best with the spell check.

Just playing. I moonlight as a grammar nazi.

Originally Posted by ficke

I do not know the volume you need to stay profitable, but You might have a niche market with Porsche obsolete transmission parts in years to come.

I really have no doubt that I can keep making money as long as I keep working. It's just that anyone who creates a brand would hope that the brand would be something you sell on down the road for a cash payout at the end. My particular niche is such that I am having a hard time seeing there being the millions in value one would hope to have at the end of it all.

The one thing I wonder about is what will become of differentials. While the gearbox becomes basically obsolete with an electric engine, one still needs the ability to transfer that rotating force to forward thrust through two wheels. There may still be a place for me out there at the bleeding edge but I'm not banking on it.

[Rick Brooklyn]

Originally Posted by ficke

Rick, I think cars used for transportation will disappear if oil becomes prohibitively expensive to use it that way. But oil/ gasoline will never be to much for people who enjoy cars just for fun.
Just like horses, nobody rides them as grocery getters anymore but they still are immensely popular as a hobby.
So I do not think there ever will be a time we can not go drive are Porsches for fun.

Matt, I did my best with the spell check.

I hope you're right, but imagine if the day comes when not only gas costs a lot but stations are 50 miles apart. When self driving cars are equipped with radar and cameras and function as an extension of police gear. Or God forbid when they outlaw normal cars from public roads altogether and you have to summon a self driving truck and load your car and get transported to a track (often a puny 1.5 mile long or so, packed with other cars, and it's a two hour trip just to get there) and spend a whole day out only to drive your car one hour or maybe 90 minutes... I think other scenarios could also play out, but that one seems to be the baseline expectation for many commenters.

The comparison with horses is apt but depressing. Oop here in the norf-east, like Rawknees would say, only very wealthy people with incomes deep in the 7 digits can afford what they call "equestrian properties".

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by Rick Brooklyn

get transported to a track (often a puny 1.5 mile long or so, packed with other cars, and it's a two hour trip just to get there) and spend a whole day out only to drive your car one hour or maybe 90 minutes...

This is called a Chin Motorsports Drivers Education or David Murray Track Day. The future is now...

[ficke]

Originally Posted by Rick Brooklyn

I hope you're right, but imagine if the day comes when not only gas costs a lot but stations are 50 miles apart. When self driving cars are equipped with radar and cameras and function as an extension of police gear. Or God forbid when they outlaw normal cars from public roads altogether and you have to summon a self driving truck and load your car and get transported to a track (often a puny 1.5 mile long or so, packed with other cars, and it's a two hour trip just to get there) and spend a whole day out only to drive your car one hour or maybe 90 minutes... I think other scenarios could also play out, but that one seems to be the baseline expectation for many commenters.

The comparison with horses is apt but depressing. Oop here in the norf-east, like Rawknees would say, only very wealthy people with incomes deep in the 7 digits can afford what they call "equestrian properties".

I know this is getting off topic, but it is a interesting point you bring up that does relate to the future value of these cars.
I think you out line the worst case future, and as Matt pointed out is it going on now in some places.
But that is the key, in some places.
I think the way it will unfold is the way it is unfolding now. Some cites will out law older cars (happening in Paris) or charge a fee to drive a car into them (London) some cities will out law private autos altogether.
There will be a patch work of unfriendly to car places and where they are even outlawed altogether like your scenario.
But like the expensive ownership of horses back East with the few places to ride them, out West they are not that hard are expensive to own and there are a lot of places to ride them, even in the city of Tucson where I am people will ride horses.
Gas powered old cars will be the same way, not accepted every where and even outlawed in some places but I believe there will always be car friendly places in the future to own and drive them around.
The future will be a patch work of laws and rules and acceptability from one city to another and State to State and country to country just like it is today.

[1979-930]

^^^ Maybe well all have to go back to using Horses for personal transportation... It's the ultimate "Green" transportation.

[Matt Monson]

I've been watching a History channel mini series called The Cars that Made America. In the first hour they talk about the horses. At the turn of the 20th century there were 30,000 tons of horse shyte, per day, that needed to be removed from the streets of NYC. The piss? Nothing they could do about it. Cities stunk.

I see no reason why major metro areas shouldn't be people powered and mass transit only. I grew up in CA. Too many people for cars to be a good solution long term.

[ficke]

I hate commuting by car and avoid it at almost all cost. I would not chose a life where it would be almost mandatory to drive like in LA. Driving in LA makes me hate cars and nothing is worth that life style to me. Being trapped in a car hours every day for the most mundane task is almost unbearable to me. When visiting friends in LA and they ask if I want to go to dinner, my only request is to not drive there, at least not on the high way. Ruins the evening to me.
If I had to live in a big city I would chose a city where I did not have to drive like New York, London DC etc.
I like to drive for fun, not work.
Many others feel this way. Cars are going away from big cities.

[Nick Triesch]

I agre wit you Matt!

[1979-930]

Bubble Pop...

1974 Porsche 911 coupe - $15000

https://sfbay.craigslist.org/pen/cto/d/1974-porsche-911-coupe/6285763694.html


Sitting in my garage for about ten years. New paint. 2.7 motor and 915 tranny. 90 percent complete. Have everything to finish it plus some. No sunroof. Air 16 inch Porsche aloys. Lost interest. Yellow coupe CHEAP. Serious only please. No email no Tex. Call only





Add went up last night.
I briefly thought I had found my 74 non sunroof project.
I just called the guy and I was caller number 40 ish.

[Rick Brooklyn]

Originally Posted by Matt Monson

This is called a Chin Motorsports Drivers Education or David Murray Track Day. The future is now...

I've done an event with chin at Road Atlanta (in my Fiat 500 Abarth, no less) and many other track days with other clubs. That's very fun to do if you want to drive a car ballz to the wall and go as fast as your skill level allows.

But if I had to take the '74 Targa to Lime Rock and drive around the 1.5 mile track at a speed at which I enjoy that car (60mph or less), it would make for an extremely dismal experience.

The best part of my leisure driving is in the summer where I can drive at not extremely high speeds, in the sun, with the top off and the windows down, along winding roads in the countryside, ideally without any other cars in sight... being confined to a crowded track setting would not be a substitute for that.

I guess at the end of the day what I'm saying is that I'm very frustrated that systematic adoption of self driving cars, possibly to the point of outright banning of old cars almost everywhere, is hailed by most everyone as an obvious no-brainer while it's extremely Pareto-inefficient.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A5000 using Tapatalk

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by 1979-930

Bubble Pop...

1974 Porsche 911 coupe - $15000

https://sfbay.craigslist.org/pen/cto/d/1974-porsche-911-coupe/6285763694.html


Sitting in my garage for about ten years. New paint. 2.7 motor and 915 tranny. 90 percent complete. Have everything to finish it plus some. No sunroof. Air 16 inch Porsche aloys. Lost interest. Yellow coupe CHEAP. Serious only please. No email no Tex. Call only





Add went up last night.
I briefly thought I had found my 74 non sunroof project.
I just called the guy and I was caller number 40 ish.

That's not a pop. That's a market ignorant seller, and why you were 40th in line.