Dystopian Future

[mgatepi]

Oh and remember when New York City was going to be under water by 2015? That one was my favorite.

[Tervuren]

Originally Posted by mgatepi

Oh and remember when New York City was going to be under water by 2015? That one was my favorite.

The strange thing is people that sold these ideas build businesses in areas they predict will be under water even if we "change now".

Hmmm...

If I trusted my ocean level predictions I'd be buying and building where I would predict the new coast line to be.

[p911dad]

Originally Posted by wilnj

Had a conversation about this very topic today. If some dystopian future becomes a reality I don’t think it will be war, disease or pestilence that brings it about. Rather it will be the millions that don’t have an income stream as the need for semi and unskilled labor vaporizes.

Autonomous vehicles will make drivers obsolete, that includes cars, trucks, buses, boats, cranes, forklifts, etc.

I can invision a future in my industry of construction when modularization becomes more prevalent and factory assembly of the modules is more conducive to automation.

Farming is an easy one, only waiting for the economics to tip the scale in the right direction.

The service industry is already there, it will only be a change in scale.

That’s what worries me.


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Along this line, Kurt Vonnegut's first novel, Player Piano, is about this future of no jobs because of automation. He wrote it back in 1952. As I recall (without re-reading it all these years later - I am sure someone here will correct me - only the engineers still had jobs. And now here we are, it's happening, especially for all those folks without the benefit of saleable skills.

[aschen]

A slowly evolving society with progress in areas and some setbacks in others would make for boring reading/viewing

bring on the hoverboards though

[GH85Carrera]

Originally Posted by p911dad

Along this line, Kurt Vonnegut's first novel, Player Piano, is about this future of no jobs because of automation. He wrote it back in 1952. As I recall (without re-reading it all these years later - I am sure someone here will correct me - only the engineers still had jobs. And now here we are, it's happening, especially for all those folks without the benefit of saleable skills.

Asimov has a short story about a future where the robots do all the work and the poor people HAD to live in giant mansions and their only "job" was to consume as much as possible to keep the robot workers busy. The really wealthy could live modestly because they would hire servants to use up the goods and consume.

The biggest problem with population of much more than what we have now is of course energy. Even if we can make some giant strides and bring nuclear fusion into cheap production and put one in every city, the problem with energy production is heat. We will need the magical fusion reactors located in space and magically beam the energy to earth. Maybe dilithium crystals and antimatter!

[Shaun @ Tru6]

^^^ the biggest problem is water. Clean water is the world's biggest problem

[wilnj]

Originally Posted by Tervuren

Hydroponic farming.

A major reason the Dystopian future doesn't get here is technology advances with our problems.

If you start to do some research on what sort of population we could sustain with hydroponic farming and nuclear energy you'll find over population is not much to fear.

Our ability to build tall structures would allow trillions to live in about 1% of the earth's landmass.

When you start doing basic math fear of the future vaporizes.

I brought up farming not because of any perceived food shortages, your absolutely right that technology keeps making strides in crop yields. My point on farming was that it currently uses a lot of labor. That will change as technology advances.

To bring it back, that’s my concern about the future. What will people do when those who can’t or won’t help themselves have no source of income?


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[wilnj]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

^^^ the biggest problem is water. Clean water is the world's biggest problem

There again, technology comes to the rescue. Technology already exists to make the most putrid liquid potable.


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[widebody911]

Originally Posted by varmint

I can remember when the hole in the ozone layer was supposed to kill us all.

Damn Liberals and their regulations!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone_depletion

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_Protocol

[GH85Carrera]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

^^^ the biggest problem is water. Clean water is the world's biggest problem

With LOTS energy, we can make sea water or sewage into clean safe water. It takes lots of energy to do it with any volume. That is why desalinization plants are rare.

[93nav]

Whenever someone comes up with automation worries, just remember in 1900 approximately 40% of the USA population was in farming, now, not so much.

[legion]

I always think back to Ancient Rome and then the Dark Ages. Rome was able to sustain itself through centuries of corruption and apathy. Then the empire started shrinking. Then the capital was overrun. Then the capital was moved. Then the empire was split, and parts continued on in exile for another few centuries.

Every society eventually collapses. Ours will as well. What amazes me is how long things can persist despite systemic weakness. Asset bubbles are an example that happen over years instead of centuries. All it takes is someone willing to go against the grain and prove the weaknesses are there and then the collapse is sudden and catastrophic.

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by legion

All it takes is someone willing to go against the grain and prove the weaknesses are there and then the collapse is sudden and catastrophic.

I keeps telling youz boys to shut up!

[Tobra]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

The foundation for a combination of 1984 and Idiocracy has been laid.

It is pretty much in full swing here on the left coast.

[Wetwork]

Cattle ranching is getting pretty amazing too, genetics especially. I swear you have to get everything blood tested once a year just to keep the pedigree's clean.

Another thing they got going is a collar you put on test animal's. Every time they put their head in a feed bunk to eat, it records which cattle eat the least and gain the most weight. So you keep those and cull the ones that eat more and still don't gain. It's pretty safe bet that the calves of those eat little gain big will do the same. So you are slowly building a group of cattle that genetically are more efficient. Crazy. It ain't two cowboys just leaning on a post spitting and scuffing holes in the dirt anymore.-WW

[scottmandue]

Originally Posted by GH85Carrera

With LOTS energy, we can make sea water or sewage into clean safe water. It takes lots of energy to do it with any volume. That is why desalinization plants are rare.

Yes, everyone can carry on proposing how technology is going to save the world but this is a perfect example. Sure we can make water but it takes a huge amount of energy.

We will always need mechanics & techs to fix the robots!

[onewhippedpuppy]

Originally Posted by p911dad

Along this line, Kurt Vonnegut's first novel, Player Piano, is about this future of no jobs because of automation. He wrote it back in 1952. As I recall (without re-reading it all these years later - I am sure someone here will correct me - only the engineers still had jobs. And now here we are, it's happening, especially for all those folks without the benefit of saleable skills.

That's actually not true. Trade jobs are in many cases in higher demand than college educated white collar professional jobs. We have several consecutive generations that were brianwashed into thinking that college was the only route to success. In the meantime every high school started focusing only on standardized test scores to obtain funding, and eliminated their shop, auto, welding, home economics, and other practical courses. I know plenty of people in the trades that make far more money than many college educated folks, and they are desperate to find qualified help. You can outsource your IT department to India, but you can't outsource fixing the broken toilet!

Good article on the topic. I have three kids, if one of them decided they wanted to go into a skilled trade I would be all for it.

https://www.npr.org/sections/ed/2018/04/25/605092520/high-paying-trade-jobs-sit-empty-while-high-school-grads-line-up-for-university

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy

That's actually not true. Trade jobs are in many cases in higher demand than college educated white collar professional jobs. We have several consecutive generations that were brianwashed into thinking that college was the only route to success. In the meantime every high school started focusing only on standardized test scores to obtain funding, and eliminated their shop, auto, welding, home economics, and other practical courses. I know plenty of people in the trades that make far more money than many college educated folks, and they are desperate to find qualified help. You can outsource your IT department to India, but you can't outsource fixing the broken toilet!

Good article on the topic. I have three kids, if one of them decided they wanted to go into a skilled trade I would be all for it.

The woman who cleans our house, her son decided to go to the local community college. I suggested if he wasn't "into" most of it, to go vo-tech, and go into welding. Get a 2 year AS degree and be a code approved welder. The other job that isn't going to go away: electricians. 2 Year AS and be a journeyman electrician, almost ready for the Master's license. A bit more boring, but equally in demand here, Air Conditioning technician.

[MikeSid]

My sister works for the AGC in Washington. We have this conversation about the trades all the time. If my kids are interested, I'd certainly point them there and there are plenty of jobs and opportunities.

But...It's hard to compete with the allure of college.

Man, I remember that first year...in a co-ed dorm... I don't know if I'd trade that for an early pension!

[Captain Ahab Jr]

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy

That's actually not true. Trade jobs are in many cases in higher demand than college educated white collar professional jobs. We have several consecutive generations that were brianwashed into thinking that college was the only route to success. In the meantime every high school started focusing only on standardized test scores to obtain funding, and eliminated their shop, auto, welding, home economics, and other practical courses. I know plenty of people in the trades that make far more money than many college educated folks, and they are desperate to find qualified help. You can outsource your IT department to India, but you can't outsource fixing the broken toilet!

Good article on the topic. I have three kids, if one of them decided they wanted to go into a skilled trade I would be all for it.

So true, my boiler guy lives in a bigger house than me and drivers a smarter car, he has one guy and his son working for him and his wife runs the phone from home, he is always busy.

My son wants to be an engineer so I'm all the strings so he can have work experience at some cool race teams. If he said to me he wanted to start up his own company doing a trade I would support him all the way as he would never be out of a job

Not sure what it's like in the US but there are not enough skilled people to go around