Tesla: The Great Short

[Pazuzu]

This thread makes me sad. I had 150 shares of TSLA.


At $95. May 2013.

Some mistakes were made and I sold at under $100 a day or 2 later. Then never jumped back in to correct the mistake because it started it's climb and I didn't want to jump on the back of a moving snake.

[dan79brooklyn]

I’m sad I only bought three shares a few years ago.
I did it just for kicks, but I did have a feeling the company would do well. Considering investing a few grand now. I think it’s gonna keep climbing.

[epbrown]

Originally Posted by dan79brooklyn

I’m sad I only bought three shares a few years ago.
I did it just for kicks, but I did have a feeling the company would do well. Considering investing a few grand now. I think it’s gonna keep climbing.

I was chatting with a co-worker yesterday who didn't want to buy now because it's too high. I explained that was the wrong outlook - if it keeps going up, the $750 he pays now will be considered low someday, same as the people that bought it as $650 just a week ago.

I don't see it going to $15,000/share like ARK is saying, but I could see it reaching Amazon levels fairly soon, which is still over double the current price.

[epbrown]

Plastics.

[trader220]

Originally Posted by epbrown

i was chatting with a co-worker yesterday who didn't want to buy now because it's too high. I explained that was the wrong outlook - if it keeps going up, the $750 he pays now will be considered low someday, same as the people that bought it as $650 just a week ago.

I don't see it going to $15,000/share like ark is saying, but i could see it reaching amazon levels fairly soon, which is still over double the current price.

lol

[speeder]

Originally Posted by trader220

lol

So, did you short the stock yet? If not, why not? You present yourself as knowing what it's going to do a lot better than us amateurs, even laughing at anyone who thinks it's going to do well, it seems like a no-brainer, right?

[pmax]

Originally Posted by trader220

lol

Hi/Lo prediction for this week, humor me !

[trader220]

Originally Posted by speeder

So, did you short the stock yet? If not, why not? You present yourself as knowing what it's going to do a lot better than us amateurs, even laughing at anyone who thinks it's going to do well, it seems like a no-brainer, right?

First of all the stocks very hard to borrow in order to short it. Second, I know enough not to just throw a dart and take on a big short position when its trading parabolic. Keynes said it best... "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid" Twenty years ago I was a floor trader and I saw the same thing in Enron, CMGI, and dozens of other names. As a trader in those days it was fantastic, you never had to take much risk... All of the order flow was one way..... until it wasn't. I am sure all of the order flow in AMZN was one way this week... Until it wasn't.


Did I trade some small options positions, yea... I did okay in my terms on them, but I wouldn't brag about it. I left a spread I legged into on over the week, I see the US major market futures are getting slammed tonight, unless something changes the markets going be be down about 1% in the morning....( I am not foolish enough to brag on the internet about money, or material goods, I assume everyone's rich and good looking.).... The implied volatility in the options is at insane levels, so much much so that when the stock sold off, volatility came in, which is the opposite of the natural order in the markets.

Yea I chuckled at the "see it reaching amazon levels" comment. AMZN has a market cap of over a trillion dollars, so No TSLA is not going to be reaching those levels anytime soon. Could it some day? Why not, or better yet, in theory why not, any company can theoretically make it to a trillion dollars market cap. Where is TSLA making its money ? Its not selling cars. Sure they sell a several hundred thousands cars a year, but that's not going to get you to a trillion dollars market cap. Right now they make their money selling off their carbon credits. Do you think that's a trillion dollar market cap business plan? How long do you expect that niche to last?

So, should I have laughed? Probably not, its rude, but the idea that TSLA could be a trillion dollar company "fairly soon", you have to admit was pretty funny. The entire gross revenue for the company was 7.3 billion GROSS for the Q. Call that a gross revenue of 30 billion for the year.... Going to be tough to get to 1 trillion in market cap with 30 billion in gross revenue.

Read all of my past comments on this thread... I wasn't knocking anyone and I stated several times over the last year... that I don't trade TSLA and I really wouldn't.

[trader220]

Originally Posted by pmax

Hi/Lo prediction for this week, humor me !

Thanks I am not foolish enough to proclaim where this ones is going to be over the course of the week. Quite a few variables in play this week. Not just that this stock is still grossly over bought, but this Virus is killing global markets and the global economy.

As I said above, go back and read my comments on this name. I wasn't knocking anyone... this thing's a beast you could wake up and it could be 25% away from here one way, then the other, or not.


If you know the market god ask him for a $600 close on Friday, pinned at strike would suit me well, at least the way I am set up right now.

[speeder]

I'll be honest that I never expected it to go up as much as it did, or I would have bought it 6 months ago, obviously. Still, I'm kicking myself for not getting in at the $200 level in 2019 because I also did not think that it was going to crater, as some did.

I'm the opposite of a market expert; hell, I don't even know what half the terminology being bandied about here means. I have been a casual observer of the stock market for decades and there have been several times when I saw a consumer good that everyone seems to love translate into a hot stock. The problem w Tesla, (and I voiced this before), is that they sell like proverbial hotcakes in my neck of the woods but it's hard to know what is going on in the heartland. They seem to be easily the most popular new car, sometimes there are 4 parked next to each other on the street where I get coffee in the morning. It's like Priuses were 10 years ago.

I snoozed and lost...

[Sooner or later]

I posted a link earlier in the thread with sales by state. Nearly half of all Tesla sold in the US are in Cal.

In 2018 Tesla sold 153,000 in Cali. The #2 state for Tesla sales wae New York with 15,000.

I haven't seen 2019 data.

[pmax]

Originally Posted by trader220

Thanks I am not foolish enough to proclaim where this ones is going to be over the course of the week. Quite a few variables in play this week. Not just that this stock is still grossly over bought, but this Virus is killing global markets and the global economy.

As I said above, go back and read my comments on this name. I wasn't knocking anyone... this thing's a beast you could wake up and it could be 25% away from here one way, then the other, or not.

Well said, hope no one else loses their shirt over this.

If you know the market god ask him for a $600 close on Friday, pinned at strike would suit me well, at least the way I am set up right now.

Good luck to you ! Seems like the upside in the option mkt is really limited without taking undue risk but even then, the rogue wave crushes all except the house.

[trader220]

Originally Posted by pmax

Well said, hope no one else loses their shirt over this.



Good luck to you ! Seems like the upside in the option mkt is really limited without taking undue risk but even then, the rogue wave crushes all except the house.

Actually its just the opposite.

The upside in the option market can be unlimited while you mitigate risk.

Who do you consider the "house" in your rogue wave comment?

[island911]

What's the typical profit on the Tesla model 3 ?

I find all sorts of rosy projections of high profits from 2017 articles on the M3, yet I see years of near billion dollar losses. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/tsla/financials

[biosurfer1]

Originally Posted by island911

What's the typical profit on the Tesla model 3 ?

I'm sure you'll find that answer in the glove box of the $35k Model 3.

Thats my biggest gripe with Elon. He is the prime example of constantly over promising and under delivering...and for no good reason. If he had just delivered what he currently has without all the over promising, it would be a great achievement, but when you're constantly having to back track on your statements, "clarifying" what you really meant, it really demeans what has been accomplished. Shame really because it's not needed at all.

[Sooner or later]

This is the year that competition arrives. Euro offerings are going to skyrocket since most manufacturers held off release until this year because of much higher European fleet mileage requirements that start this year.

Tesla has also lost it tax credit in the US while all of the competition (other than GM) still have the credit available.

How much impact will the Corona virus have on their Asian operations?

[legion]

Originally Posted by biosurfer1

I'm sure you'll find that answer in the glove box of the $35k Model 3.

Thats my biggest gripe with Elon. He is the prime example of constantly over promising and under delivering...and for no good reason. If he had just delivered what he currently has without all the over promising, it would be a great achievement, but when you're constantly having to back track on your statements, "clarifying" what you really meant, it really demeans what has been accomplished. Shame really because it's not needed at all.

Musk is focused on driving the stock price up, not on building cars.

[Cajundaddy]

The stock market is a fickle mistress and last week the overconfident Tesla bears got handed a serious azz whoopin' to the tune of 8.4B in losses. I have no idea where this stock is headed short term but I want no part of this thing right now. Irrational exuberance cuts both ways.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-bet-against-teslaand-lost-8-4-billion-in-five-weeks-11581284236

[Paul T]

Originally Posted by trader220

First of all the stocks very hard to borrow in order to short it. Second, I know enough not to just throw a dart and take on a big short position when its trading parabolic. Keynes said it best... "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid" Twenty years ago I was a floor trader and I saw the same thing in Enron, CMGI, and dozens of other names. As a trader in those days it was fantastic, you never had to take much risk... All of the order flow was one way..... until it wasn't. I am sure all of the order flow in AMZN was one way this week... Until it wasn't.


Did I trade some small options positions, yea... I did okay in my terms on them, but I wouldn't brag about it. I left a spread I legged into on over the week, I see the US major market futures are getting slammed tonight, unless something changes the markets going be be down about 1% in the morning....( I am not foolish enough to brag on the internet about money, or material goods, I assume everyone's rich and good looking.).... The implied volatility in the options is at insane levels, so much much so that when the stock sold off, volatility came in, which is the opposite of the natural order in the markets.

Yea I chuckled at the "see it reaching amazon levels" comment. AMZN has a market cap of over a trillion dollars, so No TSLA is not going to be reaching those levels anytime soon. Could it some day? Why not, or better yet, in theory why not, any company can theoretically make it to a trillion dollars market cap. Where is TSLA making its money ? Its not selling cars. Sure they sell a several hundred thousands cars a year, but that's not going to get you to a trillion dollars market cap. Right now they make their money selling off their carbon credits. Do you think that's a trillion dollar market cap business plan? How long do you expect that niche to last?

So, should I have laughed? Probably not, its rude, but the idea that TSLA could be a trillion dollar company "fairly soon", you have to admit was pretty funny. The entire gross revenue for the company was 7.3 billion GROSS for the Q. Call that a gross revenue of 30 billion for the year.... Going to be tough to get to 1 trillion in market cap with 30 billion in gross revenue.

Read all of my past comments on this thread... I wasn't knocking anyone and I stated several times over the last year... that I don't trade TSLA and I really wouldn't.

Very well stated. That is my favorite market quote and I repeat it to myself daily! As for TSLA, it's probably the only stock I wouldn't take a position in, long or short...way too much irrationality in this one.

[sammyg2]

Looks like TSLA has found support at around 750.
If it follows previous patterns, it will slowly creep up a little for a while and then make a big jump.
Then fall again but not to the previous level of support. Step change.

I can't offer a rational explanation for this pattern and have no idea if it will repeat.
If it's still around the 750 to 775 mark after this whole corona thing goes away, I may be playin again.
But likely not with six figures. Hanging with crazies is fun as long as you don't get anything on you that won't wash off.