Wayne's corona virus predictions...

[mgatepi]

Interesting, click on China and you will see their charts. Basically this confirms what I am hearing from my friends. On its way out.
Looks like a month to a month and a half time frame....

[Cajundaddy]

Hi Wayne!

I appreciate your thoughts but I actually think this will be like many other new viruses. It appears quickly, sweeps through the population quickly, and dies out quickly. It will be very hard on our parents and grandparents who are at greatest risk but I expect this to peak within 30 days and begin to wind down by the end of April. By summer things will probably be getting back to normal while effective treatments and vaccines will be in the final stages of trials and ready for labeling.

My prediction is that this is a serious epidemic, but not the apocalypse that many have envisioned. It will be out of the news cycle by July. Most businesses can hang on for a few tough months. Most cannot hang on for a few tough years.

[legion]

Would you really want to order food for delivery if you fear getting infected from outside?

[Tidybuoy]

I believe the Spanish Flu behaved similar to this Coronavirus and then died down. But, it came back later in the year and that is when the real disaster started.

My thought is that people will start to relax as we have more and more people get the virus and recover. Currently, it is so new that hardly anyone in the USA has recovered. In contrast, many have recovered in China and so China is starting to return to normal. If this virus behaves like the Flu, it should start to die down but like the Flu, it will come back next fall/winter.

[flatbutt]

My college campus just announced that all classes will convert to online. Well there goes my music production lab.

[Deschodt]

Originally Posted by Tidybuoy

I believe the Spanish Flu behaved similar to this Coronavirus and then died down. But, it came back later in the year and that is when the real disaster started.

There will be a vaccine by then. There already are - just not through the test process yet but I bet this will be accelerated. Next year's flu vaccine will be FLu + Covid...

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by flatbutt

My college campus just announced that all classes will convert to online. Well there goes my music production lab.

BGSU goes online after spring break but dorms will remain open.

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by Tidybuoy

I believe the Spanish Flu behaved similar to this Coronavirus and then died down. But, it came back later in the year and that is when the real disaster started.

My thought is that people will start to relax as we have more and more people get the virus and recover. Currently, it is so new that hardly anyone in the USA has recovered. In contrast, many have recovered in China and so China is starting to return to normal. If this virus behaves like the Flu, it should start to die down but like the Flu, it will come back next fall/winter.

I believe most people who contract this virus go unreported and recover.
Those who develop a serious illness are more likely to get reported and tracked, and skew the numbers to look more severe.

[Crowbob]

Originally Posted by sammyg2

I believe most people who contract this virus go unreported and recover.
Those who develop a serious illness are more likely to get reported and tracked, and skew the numbers to look more severe.

I agree.

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by Deschodt

There will be a vaccine by then. There already are - just not through the test process yet but I bet this will be accelerated. Next year's flu vaccine will be FLu + Covid...

https://www.click2houston.com/business/2020/03/08/behind-the-scenes-scientists-prep-for-covid-19-vaccine-test/

These guys developed a SARS vaccine. COVID-19 is a SARS variant and the vaccine matches 84%, closer to 100% in the areas that matter. They are animal testing the vaccine against COVID-19 right now.

[ckelly78z]

Eagles Dirty Laundry

We got the bubble-headed-bleach-blonde who
Comes on at five
She can tell you bout the plane crash with a gleam
In her eye
Its interesting when people die-
Give us dirty laundry

[Deschodt]

Originally Posted by sammyg2

I believe most people who contract this virus go unreported and recover.
Those who develop a serious illness are more likely to get reported and tracked, and skew the numbers to look more severe.

Perfect metaphor for 996 IMS issues too ;-) It's the blowups that get reported. I also agree the numbers of "unaware they even got sick" is huge and divides the death rate by 10 probably....

I was on a big multi-hospitals phone conference last night, they're preparing for a spike and serious overcrowding, but made very clear to us that hospital personnel contamination was so far *nil* in the US (where we don't use ziplock bags as gloves), and that the odds of a healthy person dying of this were extremely low... When facing those% numbers which are still skewed at the moment, we simply forget how much of the population is on chemo, has immunity issues due to other causes or age, other pulmonary issues, or recipients of transplants... THOSE are the people we're trying to save by not getting sick and passing it onto them, not "us" fairly health folks... perspective... I think the media is doing a pretty ****ty job by terrorizing people and losing perspective.

[red-beard]

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca?fbclid=IwAR3VVUj-b70sgu0j1ubnW_LZukbI-JXowfJ3TD1RU8nPPvTNQyb27YUfoU8

[Noah930]

Originally Posted by legion

Would you really want to order food for delivery if you fear getting infected from outside?

I had the same thought. People will order delivery thinking it to be safer. It might be, as you're not in a restaurant with that exposure risk. But the restaurant workers are still handling your food. That's not any different.

Mrs. Noah (who works in a nursing home setting) found an article about how this virus may be transmissible via fecal-oral route. Slightly over half of infected people in this Chinese study had viral RNA detectable in their stool samples (and gut lining). This persisted for up to 12 days. Even when they no longer had respiratory symptoms, and respiratory samples tested negative. So that raises the possibility of fecal-oral contamination, as victims (symptomatic or not) may be shedding viral particles via stool.

Another report indicated that this virus may be airborne transmissible for double the distance as traditional flu, which may explain why it seems to be so quick to spread.

I don't know if the above issues are significant (in terms of disease spread) or not. There aren't enough victims/patients in the US for long enough for us to know. But they are worrisome possibilities. This isn't "just the flu."

Maybe a radical (and impossible idea), but perhaps a nationwide 2-week quarantine now may prevent this virus from being a real outbreak such as has transpired in China, Italy, Iran, and whatever other countries are experiencing it but deliberately not reporting it (North Korea, Indonesia, etc). It would be financially painful, but the alternative (pandemic) would be much worse.

[Cajundaddy]

Originally Posted by Noah930

Maybe a radical (and impossible idea), but perhaps a nationwide 2-week quarantine now may prevent this virus from being a real outbreak such as has transpired in China, Italy, Iran, and whatever other countries are experiencing it but deliberately not reporting it (North Korea, Indonesia, etc). It would be financially painful, but the alternative (pandemic) would be much worse.

It was declared a pandemic today.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/11/814474930/coronavirus-covid-19-is-now-officially-a-pandemic-who-says

The idea of voluntary isolation is perhaps the simplest way to wind this thing down quickly. The current estimated transmission rate is 3.4 and if voluntary isolation brings that rate to <1, the epidemic winds down. Avoiding unnecessary travel, unnecessary gathering of large groups, and careful adherence to other preventative measures all work towards this. It is already beginning to taper off in China and Korea after fairly dramatic isolation measures were imposed.

[wayner]

Another prediction from another Wayne:

Hospitals will run out of capacity.

Triage:
Older people will be set aside and "kept comfortable" while younger cases are given preference.

[cabmandone]

I wanna know who the bastages are that only gave Wayne 3 stars!

[GothingNC]

Originally Posted by flatbutt

My college campus just announced that all classes will convert to online. Well there goes my music production lab.

Duke Univ and all of NC UNC campuses just announced the same thing.

[wayner]

From evertything that I have read including watching interviews with survivors it hits you in three stages

Wave 1. cold symptoms with dry cough (then you get better for a bit)
Wave 2. Nasty flu like symptoms/fever and congestion (soar throat and swelling)
Wave 3. Your over it but now you have bilateral interstitial pneumonia (if you are unlucky) but respond well to drugs or get put on a ventilator or die.

I wonder if waiting too long to realize that you are not getting better but worse is a factor in the ones who got really sick that made it versus didn't?

I'm eating my vegetables and washing my hands

[Racerbvd]

Work from home will accelerate and perhaps offices will never recover. We work - done for. I never liked the concept of “sharing germs with other people in a co-working space”. Now, this just won’t happen. Shared offices? Not likely. The office market has been on a decline for a long time now, look to see this accelerate it. Home video apps and tools will do well of course. More people will work from home and like it, and will not want to return to the office.

Welcome back Wayne, you missed one area, the restaurants and businesses that operate near business centers will be hit very hard if the above happens.
Since a large portion of our business is cruise ships and restaurants bars and clubs, this could have a devastating impact on our business.