Federal Re-opening guidance

[McLovin]

Originally Posted by island911

Right now The Swedes win our motto. The one we are not using anymore, apparently. --Land of the free, home of the brave.

One interesting thing I read about the Swedish response to criticism of their approach is this:

People say Sweden is conducting a mass experiment on their citizens. Sweden’s response to that is “no, the rest of the world is who is conducting mass experiments on their citizens.”

Which seems true. 2,000+ years of civilization (i.e., the pre-Internet world), many viruses and diseases have come, but no one has ever done what the US (and many others) is doing now.

So given history, who is really the one experimenting? An interesting argument.

[McLovin]

Originally Posted by wdfifteen

So far even in meat packing plants he has been able to avoid the debacles in Alberta and South Dakota.

What’s the South Dakota debacle? I was curious and just googled it, and for what I can see, a total of 7 people have died (which includes people in their 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s with comorbidities).
7 deaths in the entire state is a debacle? What would be a non-debacle, 3?

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by aigel

Easy does it IMHO. Nobody says we shouldn't try. I also think we can get a good picture on infection status with much smaller sampling of a population, if it is done with statisticians that know what they are doing.

^^^ Yep. NC is gonna trace, track, and trend....and there will be mistakes made. But we have the capability...or will....and we will. All the armchair QBs just need to watch how it's done...and we'll teach ya !

Just humor Island...he "ain't quite right"
.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by McLovin

What’s the South Dakota debacle? I was curious and just googled it, and for what I can see, a total of 7 people have died (which includes people in their 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s with comorbidities).
7 deaths in the entire state is a debacle? What would be a non-debacle, 3?

The number of deaths isn't the only relevant metric. Over 700 people associated with the plant have the disease. I have no statistics on how many are sick at what degree of severity, but over 600 people are too sick to work.
The plant had to close, putting 3700 employees out of work. Because they had failed to get ahead of the virus they also closed two other plants while they figure out how to keep workers well. Food production is an essential business - a VERY essential business - and closing these plants affect our food supply. All because the governor and the plant managment didn't take the disease seriously. Having to close down essential businesses and lay off over 6000 workers due to poor planning WHEN EXAMPLES OF HOW TO STAY OPEN SAFELY ARE AVAILABLE is a debacle in my book.

[KFC911]

I keep having to "juggle" my posts per page to see all of this thread....anyone else having issues?

A couple of observations...NC hasn't totally "shut down"....far from it....nor has the whole US economy...not even most of it. We will dig out of this mess just like we do when a hurricane floods 1/3 of our state...it's just what we do.

We need the basics....masks, gloves, etc. in order to test and go forward...but we're not there yet. There seems to be a huge disconnect from the fed level to what's happening in our state and locally imo....and jmho.

My biggest issue right now...

Broken thread pointers

[p911dad]

This is not my original thought, I only wish I were this smart: In this crisis, which seem to come along every ten years or so, the Federal Gov't is not expanding its powers permanently, as in the 911 aftermath (Homeland Security, expanded NSA) or 2008/2009 financial crisis (expanded oversight of financial exchanges, expanded accounting rules, etc). Instead, they are discarding old hard and fast rules and guidance, streamlining administrative processes, etc. In this case the Fed. Gov't seems to be contracting in favor of true Federalism, ie, letting the 50 States rule in their own states instead of sending out masses of Fed workers to run the show. Also, they are using government/private industry innovation and cooperation instead of the usual answers only coming from Washington and its Fed. agencies, and also the absolutely amazing speed at which all this is taking place. Letting the states, with guidance, set their own pace at reopening, is brilliant.

[DanielDudley]

Originally Posted by rfuerst911sc

I am a firm believer in data to make decisions , in my opinion we currently don't have enough data ( testing ) to make solid decisions . We have tested one percent of the population that is not a large enough sample. I am guessing ten percent gives enough data to make informed decisions . There will never be a decree that we are 100 percent sure everyone will be just fine but with good solid data smart decisions can be made .

I think that we are going to have to move to the next stage of managing ourselves in regards to this disease, but also individuals are going to have to exercise common sense for themselves, particularly those with elevated at risk status.

I saw a fair number of intrepid souls running around in defiance of common sense yesterday, deliberately flaunting safety recommendations. I won't be mingling with them in public. The possibility of this disease taking off again in an exponential fashion is all too real. I don't think we can all shelter in place indefinitely, but I do think we have to use the common sense guidelines if we want to mobilize ourselves and the economy again.

We paid a high price to slow the spread of this disease down to almost nothing, but I think there are still a fair number of people who don't see the correlation between our actions and the result. I'm going to live my life in such a way as to avoid contact with the proudly defiant as much as possible. IF this disease takes off again, we will have to go back to sheltering in place.

Right now there is a certain freedom from the disease, because so many clearly don't have it. Failure to practice proper disease etiquette could swing that around quickly. Darwinian logic suggests to me that if I am not the youngest or strongest, that maybe I can compensate by acting with intelligence. While it should be clear by now that this disease is not a joke, there are still plenty of people who seem to think they need personal proof or it isn't real.

Stay away from those people.

[DanielDudley]

Originally Posted by rfuerst911sc

I am a firm believer in data to make decisions , in my opinion we currently don't have enough data ( testing ) to make solid decisions . We have tested one percent of the population that is not a large enough sample. I am guessing ten percent gives enough data to make informed decisions . There will never be a decree that we are 100 percent sure everyone will be just fine but with good solid data smart decisions can be made .

I think that we are going to have to move to the next stage of managing ourselves in regards to this disease, but also individuals are going to have to exercise common sense for themselves, particularly those with elevated at risk status.

I saw a fair number of intrepid souls running around in defiance of common sense yesterday, deliberately flaunting safety recommendations. I won't be mingling with them in public. The possibility of this disease taking off again in an exponential fashion is all too real. I don't think we can all shelter in place indefinitely, but I do think we have to use the common sense guidelines if we want to mobilize ourselves and the economy again.

We paid a high price to slow the spread of this disease down to almost nothing, but I think there are still a fair number of people who don't see the correlation between our actions and the result. I'm going to live my life in such a way as to avoid contact with the proudly defiant as much as possible. IF this disease takes off again, we will have to go back to sheltering in place.

Right now there is a certain freedom from the disease, because so many clearly don't have it. Failure to practice proper disease etiquette could swing that around quickly. Darwinian logic suggests to me that if I am not the youngest or strongest, that maybe I can compensate by acting with intelligence. While it should be clear by now that this disease is not a joke, there are still plenty of people who seem to think they need personal proof or it isn't real.

Stay away from those people. Or not.

[Sooner or later]

Daniel, your post is spot on. You should post it 2nd time.

Oh, wait, you did!

[rfuerst911sc]

I just got off the phone with our youngest son that lives in Orlando Florida . He said yesterday the local news showed a Jacksonville beach that had been opened to the public . He said it was swarmed with people , no social distancing or masks ......... you don't want face tan lines . You want to stay away from those knuckle draggers .

I was reading this article this morning , regardless if you are or aren't a fan of CNN I found the article interesting . Basically there is a LOT about this virus/pandemic we don't know yet . Dr. Birk's comments stating we don't know if people testing positive after showing recovery are contagious is troubling . Maybe they don't know because more testing is needed . Maybe they don't know because it will be proven they aren't contagious . Or maybe it will be proven all/some are contagious . Bottom line more testing is needed .

I want the country to get back to business as much as anybody else , I just want it done as safely as possible . Maybe daily testing at the place of work is an option . Not a full blown test but maybe daily body temp readings ? Maybe a full blown test once a week ? Just thinking out loud on what " might " be options to get back to work safely .

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/south-korea-coronavirus-retesting-positive-intl-hnk/index.html

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally Posted by DanielDudley

I think that we are going to have to move to the next stage of managing ourselves in regards to this disease, but also individuals are going to have to exercise common sense for themselves, particularly those with elevated at risk status.

I saw a fair number of intrepid souls running around in defiance of common sense yesterday, deliberately flaunting safety recommendations. I won't be mingling with them in public. The possibility of this disease taking off again in an exponential fashion is all too real. I don't think we can all shelter in place indefinitely, but I do think we have to use the common sense guidelines if we want to mobilize ourselves and the economy again.

We paid a high price to slow the spread of this disease down to almost nothing, but I think there are still a fair number of people who don't see the correlation between our actions and the result. I'm going to live my life in such a way as to avoid contact with the proudly defiant as much as possible. IF this disease takes off again, we will have to go back to sheltering in place.

Right now there is a certain freedom from the disease, because so many clearly don't have it. Failure to practice proper disease etiquette could swing that around quickly. Darwinian logic suggests to me that if I am not the youngest or strongest, that maybe I can compensate by acting with intelligence. While it should be clear by now that this disease is not a joke, there are still plenty of people who seem to think they need personal proof or it isn't real.

Stay away from those people. Or not.

Attacking science has already begun.

[McLovin]

You and President Trump are in agreement on that.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by DanielDudley

We paid a high price to slow the spread of this disease down to almost nothing, but I think there are still a fair number of people who don't see the correlation between our actions and the result.

You put that in past tense. I hope it was a typo. We HAVE NOT slowed the spread of this disease down to almost nothing - we have slowed the rate of increase in the spread of the disease. People are still getting sick every day by the thousands.

Originally Posted by DanielDudley

I'm going to live my life in such a way as to avoid contact with the proudly defiant as much as possible.

Me too. I leave the "compound" (our neighbor's place and ours) once a week for supplies. I haven't been in a restaurant since February and I'm losing weight, so WIN!

[island911]

Originally Posted by McLovin

One interesting thing I read about the Swedish response to criticism of their approach is this:

People say Sweden is conducting a mass experiment on their citizens. Sweden’s response to that is “no, the rest of the world is who is conducting mass experiments on their citizens.”

Which seems true. 2,000+ years of civilization (i.e., the pre-Internet world), many viruses and diseases have come, but no one has ever done what the US (and many others) is doing now.

So given history, who is really the one experimenting? An interesting argument.

They are right, of course.

But with drive-by shootings WAY down (Chicago had what, 600/month prior?)...

And with Traffic deaths way down (US average 102/DAY prior) ...

How can we possibly allow non-essential people to begin to move about? -EVER!

People will DIE!!!

Let me get a graph and call, anyone who doesn't agree with me, a science denier.

[island911]

Originally Posted by wdfifteen

... We HAVE NOT slowed the spread of this disease down to almost nothing - we have slowed the rate of increase in the spread of the disease. People are still getting sick every day by the thousands.







Me too. I leave the "compound" (our neighbor's place and ours) once a week for supplies. I haven't been in a restaurant since February and I'm losing weight, so WIN!

Why do you do that? ... post misleading graphs?

Increasing sampling (testing) will show an increase in positives unless the rate of actual new cases slows far below the rate of increase in sampling.

IOW, what you are looking at -if one were to adjust for increased sampling, is a strong decrease in new cases.

Sheesh, so true is the saying, there are 10 types of people -those who understand math and those who don't

[island911]

Originally Posted by wdfifteen

Oh, I think it's ONE PARFer who consitently shows up to crap on a thread. He is just so full of himself he can't let a civil discussion go on without him. He doesn't get enough attention on PARF and has to bring it here. You don't have to read every post. I just skip his.

"Civil discussion" U demand do you? This sounds like you are talking about yourself.

[Paul T]

Originally Posted by McLovin

One interesting thing I read about the Swedish response to criticism of their approach is this:

People say Sweden is conducting a mass experiment on their citizens. Sweden’s response to that is “no, the rest of the world is who is conducting mass experiments on their citizens.”

Which seems true. 2,000+ years of civilization (i.e., the pre-Internet world), many viruses and diseases have come, but no one has ever done what the US (and many others) is doing now.

So given history, who is really the one experimenting? An interesting argument.

Not necessarily true that's it's never been done before. Many cities went on lockdown during the Spanish flu pandemic, and some (Phila famously) did not, with disastrous consequences.

[Paul T]

Originally Posted by island911

Why do you do that? ... post misleading graphs?

Increasing sampling (testing) will show an increase in positives unless the rate of actual new cases slows far below the rate of increase in sampling.

IOW, what you are looking at -if one were to adjust for increased sampling, is a strong decrease in new cases.

Sheesh, so true is the saying, there are 10 types of people -those who understand math and those who don't

I agree with your logic, however testing has been pretty constant in the US for the last month, so this chart should not be skewed by an increase in sampling. We should be testing at a rapidly increasing rate, however we are not.

[legion]

My county has an infection rate of 0.007%.

My governor just cancelled the school year. Gotta love one-size-fits-all solutions from government! There is absolutely no reason for anything to be cancelled or restricted where I live.

[island911]

Originally Posted by Paul T

Not necessarily true that's it's never been done before. Many cities went on lockdown during the Spanish flu pandemic, and some (Phila famously) did not, with disastrous consequences.

In 1918 disastrous consequences abound, for those who took measures, and those who did not.

Fortunately, this is NO WHERE near as nasty as that flu, and we have effective anti-virals for this as well.

Imagine if the 1918 world had the senior population that we have now. YIKES!