Federal Re-opening guidance

[Shaun @ Tru6]

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by Por_sha911

Everyone needs to reconcile two things:
1) I will face an end to this mortal life whether I like it or not.
2) Until then, I need to decide what risks I feel are worth taking.

Wish that were true. But we live in a society. We aren't a bunch of individuals whose actions have no effect on the rest of society.

Originally Posted by Por_sha911

The question then remains how much does a government dictate what risks I am willing to take.

A lot. I wish I could find my old draft card. You'll have to trust me, there are no little check boxes on it that say:

"I agree to accept the risks the government chooses to subject me to."

"No thanks, I'd rather run my own life."

The selective service is still alive and well, BTW.

[McLovin]

Originally Posted by wdfifteen

Wish that were true. But we live in a society. We aren't a bunch of individuals whose actions have no effect on the rest of society.



A lot. I wish I could find my old draft card. You'll have to trust me, there are no little check boxes on it that say:

"I agree to accept the risks the government chooses to subject me to."

"No thanks, I'd rather run my own life."

The selective service is still alive and well, BTW.

Very apt analogy.

As President Trump says, we are a Nation at war against a vicious, deadly invisible enemy, the likes of which we’ve never seen before.

[wdfifteen]

I would love to see some of these guys who thump their chests and declare the government can't tell them what to do open their, "You will report for induction ..." letters. It would even be more precious to hear them explain to the personnel at the induction center that, "I need to decide what risks I feel are worth taking"

[pmax]

Apparently 64 out of 200 "randomly tested" in some town in MA turned out positive.

[drcoastline]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

Everything we are seeing from the states that are announcing plans pretty much matches the fed guidance.

I don't see anything that you suggest is actually happening.

Are you paying any attention to New Jersey?

[spuggy]

Originally Posted by pmax

Apparently 64 out of 200 "randomly tested" in some town in MA turned out positive.

https://paloaltoonline.com/news/2020/04/17/stanford-study-more-than-48000-santa-clara-county-residents-have-likely-been-infected-by-coronavirus

The number of coronavirus infections in Santa Clara County could be between 50 and 80 times higher than the officially confirmed count, preliminary results from a community-based study by a team of Stanford University researchers indicates.

The prevalence study, led by Stanford Assistant Professor Eran Bendavid, has not been formally published and is still undergoing peer reviews. It has, however, been published on the preprint server medRxiv. As such, it is effectively a first draft, subject to change based on input before formal publication.

That said, the early findings indicate that between 48,000 and 81,000 residents in Santa Clara County were infected as of April 1, back when the official count was 956. The estimate is based on 3,330 blood samples that were taken from volunteers in Mountain View, Los Gatos and San Jose on April 3 and April 4 and tested for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 .

When adjusted for Santa Clara County's population and demographics, the number of positive results suggests that between 2.49% and 4.16% of the county's 1.93 million residents have had COVID-19.

Which basically jibes pretty well with the Navy saying that 60% of sailors of the 660 testing positive on the Roosevelt were asymptomatic, and Iceland (#2 in Tests/1M Pop, they've tested over 10% of the population) saying 50% were asymptomatic.

https://www.businessinsider.com/testing-reveals-most-aircraft0-carrier-sailors-coronavirus-had-no-symptoms-2020-4?r=US&IR=T

So this seems to be how it's spreading. Many folks have no idea they've ever had it, many are infectious before they get symptoms (or may never display symptoms). And the true morbidity rate may be only slightly higher than regular flu - like around 0.2%

Without wide-spread testing, we're basically licking a finger, holding it up in the air and guessing.

If you go to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries and sort the table by "Tests/1M Pop", you'll find the USA on row #42.

[Crowbob]

Originally Posted by wdfifteen

I would love to see some of these guys who thump their chests and declare the government can't tell them what to do open their, "You will report for induction ..." letters. It would even be more precious to hear them explain to the personnel at the induction center that, "I need to decide what risks I feel are worth taking"

Interesting.

You condemn those arguing against fascism by citing an example of it.

[pmax]

"That said, the early findings indicate that between 48,000 and 81,000 residents in Santa Clara County were infected as of April 1, "

... which means the mortality rate is around 0.1%

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by pmax

"That said, the early findings indicate that between 48,000 and 81,000 residents in Santa Clara County were infected as of April 1, "

... which means the mortality rate is around 0.1%

That 50 to 80 cases per confirmed case seems far too high. Use those numbers for the entire US and it comes out to 35 to 60 million,.

For NY state it would be 12 to 19 million out of a total population of 20 million.
For NY city it would be 6 to 10 million out of a total population of 8.4 million

[pmax]

Originally Posted by spuggy

Without wide-spread testing, we're basically licking a finger, holding it up in the air and guessing.

On the contrary, widespread testing is meaningless when more than 30% already has it.

Updated: April 15, 2020 - 11:06 PM

BOSTON — The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now “actively looking into” results from universal COVID-19 testing at Pine Street Inn homeless shelter.

The broad-scale testing took place at the shelter in Boston’s South End a week and a half ago because of a small cluster of cases there.

Of the 397 people tested, 146 people tested positive. Not a single one had any symptoms.
Content Continues Below

“It was like a double knockout punch. The number of positives was shocking, but the fact that 100 percent of the positives had no symptoms was equally shocking,” said Dr. Jim O’Connell, president of Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program, which provides medical care at the city’s shelters.


https://www.boston25news.com/news/cdc-reviewing-stunning-universal-testing-results-boston-homeless-shelter/Z253TFBO6RG4HCUAARBO4YWO64/

[Sooner or later]

A homeless shelter is worst case scenario.

Poor overall health
Terrible personal hygiene
A lot of folks in close quarters
Confined space
Extended exposure time

I would expect a mass outbreak.

[Crowbob]

As these numbers roll in the more confuser it gets. That shelter shows roughly a 37% infection rate with zero symptoms. One third of the population was infected?

I am really wondering if anybody has any idea what's going on with this COVID-19. The predictions were so far off it's almost unbelievable, as in completely unreliable. i sorta remember the hype. pretty close to, 'You get it, you die a miserable, slow, suffocating death. 14 day asymptomatic incubation phase! Super-spreaders...Fatality!'

Now we're finding out maybe millions have it? Come to find out now the mortality rate might be miniscule?

What the he|| is going on?

The more we science the **** out of it, the less we seem know.

[dafischer]

^^^What he said.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by Crowbob

As these numbers roll in the more confuser it gets. That shelter shows roughly a 37% infection rate with zero symptoms. One third of the population was infected?

I am really wondering if anybody has any idea what's going on with this COVID-19. The predictions were so far off it's almost unbelievable, as in completely unreliable. i sorta remember the hype. pretty close to, 'You get it, you die a miserable, slow, suffocating death. 14 day asymptomatic incubation phase! Super-spreaders...Fatality!'

Now we're finding out maybe millions have it? Come to find out now the mortality rate might be miniscule?

What the he|| is going on?

The more we science the **** out of it, the less we seem know.

Anybody that actually looked at the models should have realized how much inaccuracy was built in. The latest IHME modeling has a total range of death from 34,000 to 140,000 with 60,000 their projected. Why not just throw a dart. I have ignored all models.

The thought of millions of cases is nothing new or surprising. We have known there were many mild cases walking around and spreading the disease. We don't know the total extent but the range is slowly coming into focus.

We have excellent data out of Iceland. For every know case they had 3 or 4 other unknown active cases. It seems to be highly accurate.

Now we have had several antibody test trials coming out. All basically using new and untested systems with questionable accuracy.

The Stanford trial showing 50 to 80 past cases per known case is too far out of the ballpark for me to take seriously. If that were true then NY state would have seen a dramatic drop in cases due to high past infection and social distancing. And that drop didn't happen.

The Chelsea, Mass trial seems more in line at 15 past cases to every known case. Though it only tested 200 in a high rate area.

Michigan will be releasing a huge amount of data (I think about 100,000) on their antibody test of healthcare workers. I wouldn't be surprised if it shows a past high rate of infection since they are testing people in high risk jobs.

LA county also has a random test in the works. Oklahoma also has antibody testing in the works. I am sure ther are many others.

Keep in mind that we don't currently know the accuracy of any of these antibody tests. They may be damn good. They may be terrible. Though many people will want to take them as gospel.

We do know that high occupancy, close quarters, long exposure environments are a recipe for disaster. We see that in nursing homes, cruise ships and carriers, processing plants, and homeless shelters. A no brainer.

We do know that the older you are or if you have health issues you will have a far greater chance of serious illness. Under the age of 20 and there is little or no risk.

A big question is if antibodies give immunity. No absolute data to say either way but my money is on yes. Far too many cured cases and far too few "reinfected " cases to say otherwise. There is a belief that mild cases may not build up much immunity. I can buy into that train of thought.

I am going to stick with my 4 cases of current unknown spreaders per know case and another 5 or 6 cases that are over their illness. So, a total of 10 other past or current unknown cases per known case. I wouldn't be surprised If it is actually 15 or even 20. I seriously doubt if it exceeds 20. I will also stick to my earlier guess of a mortality rate of 0.5 to 0.7% though 03% to 0.4% seems far more likely now.

Do not believe anything that you read or hear without checking the source. All of the actual trial data is available if you do research. The est accuracy of the testing systems is available if you look into the manufacturer data estimates.

[island911]

Originally Posted by wdfifteen

Wish that were true. But we live in a society. We aren't a bunch of individuals whose actions have no effect on the rest of society.



A lot. I wish I could find my old draft card. You'll have to trust me, there are no little check boxes on it that say:

"I agree to accept the risks the government chooses to subject me to."

"No thanks, I'd rather run my own life."

The selective service is still alive and well, BTW.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

[Seahawk]

Even Bill Maher gets it:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/18/bill_maher_the_media_needs_to_stop_with_the_panic_ porn__fear_mongering.html



"Now that we’re starting to see some hope in all this, don’t hope-shame me," the "Real Time" host said. "You know, the problem with nonstop gloom and doom is it gives Trump the chance to play the optimist, and optimists tend to win American elections."

"FDR said, ‘The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.’ You know, as full of s–t as he is, I could see Trump riding that into a second term."

"So, look, if this insanity happens again, news sources have to rein it in. Everyone knows Corona is no walk in the park. Because you literally can’t walk in the park. But at some point, the daily drumbeat of depression and terror veers into panic porn," he added. "Enough with the 'life will never be the same' headlines. ... Everything looks scary when you magnified it a thousand times."

"Giving the proper perspective isn’t a cover-up of the truth. It is the truth... We need the news to calm down and treat us like adults... Trump calls you fake news. Don’t make him be right."

Here is the deal: Your area may need to stay the way it is. Here in my area, the risk is extremely low. Don't paint with a one size fits all brush...you look silly, Progressives. Stop focusing on Trump, focus on the next steps...or you can stay where you are in your, at least in Ohio, 6000 sq ft house, retired no money issues, and ***** about people who are out of work without a "draft card" not being Patriotic.

What a load of Progressive gradu.

[legion]

My county has 4 times as many recovered people as active cases. We haven't had a new active case in 3 days. Several hundred people are being tested every day. We are still in government-imposed lockup.

Next time some models predict a crime-spree, they should throw us all in prison as a preventative measure.

[Seahawk]

Originally Posted by legion

My county has 4 times as many recovered people as active cases. We haven't had a new active case in 3 days. Several hundred people are being tested every day. We are still in government-imposed lockup.

Next time some models predict a crime-spree, they should throw us all in prison as a preventative measure.

What I love is all the Progressives depending on power, food and the internet to keep their fervid political dreams alive then complaining about it putting them, "at risk".

Who do you think are working the infrastructure to enable their political "Titanic's"? They will need to see the draft cards of their betters before they approve.

But be safe, hunker down, don't threaten my little palace in Ohio, or my friends in Boston..."we" are doing all the "right things" you lessors can't possibly understand: just keep the power on, the internet and thank you very little.

BTW, power plant workers, food processors, truck drivers, the little people, know the risks and understand we have been "open" the entire time.