The "Second Wave"

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by URY914

Last Sunday's 60 Minutes had a story about NYNY. If I remember correctly they have 200 reefer trailers being used to store victims with more on standby. 200!

The city's total death count from all deaths is going to go from 4, 000 a month to about 11,000 (or higher).

Hospitalization numbers are pretty wormy, but somewhere around 10 to 15% of known/positive test cases end up hospitalized. That is the biggest problem.

[NY65912]

The Chinese government are corrupt sociopaths. The are barren of any ethical or moral codes for sure and I do have rage toward them.

But It is hard to take when I hear some of the things written here by keyboard warriors and watch Covid updates from the one "in charge" that are ramblings on about his "feelings" about this scourge.

Watch out, because I think this beast will rear it's ugly head in everyone's hometown.

NY is flattening the curve due to social distancing. I have no hair son going to the barber shop is no problem for me. But I have to trim my wife's hair today and that is making me stressed.

Good Luck to you all.

[NY65912]

A large part of the NYC problem is cultural and socioeconomic. Before the quarantine went into effect here I told my son to watch specific neighborhoods and ethnic groups as the virus will be much worse there.

I predicted that the Caribbean, Hasidic Jews, Hispanic and Asian population would be hit hard and it has come to pass. These groups have an historic disregard for any authority telling them what to do, so social distancing was a very bitter pill to swallow and it shows in the stats. The other problem is with the poorer neighborhoods. A large percentage of the people living there are under nourished, generally unhealthy and ignorant to the biologic cause and effect of exposure. Not to mention not wanting to believe what the authorities have to say.

There is a Covid map by zip code and it backs up my theory. But, the same holds for the entire country.

[NY65912]

A large part of the NYC problem is cultural and socioeconomic. Before the quarantine went into effect here I told my son to watch specific neighborhoods and ethnic groups as the virus will be much worse there.

I predicted that the Caribbean, Hasidic Jews, Hispanic and Asian population would be hit hard and it has come to pass. These groups have an historic disregard for any authority telling them what to do, so social distancing was a very bitter pill to swallow and it shows in the stats. The other problem is with the poorer neighborhoods. A large percentage of the people living there are under nourished, generally unhealthy and ignorant to the biologic cause and effect of exposure. Not to mention not wanting to believe what the authorities have to say.

There is a Covid map by zip code and it backs up my theory in NYC. But, the same holds for the entire country.

[URY914]

Originally Posted by NY65912

A large part of the NYC problem is cultural and socioeconomic. Before the quarantine went into effect here I told my son to watch specific neighborhoods and ethnic groups as the virus will be much worse there.

I predicted that the Caribbean, Hasidic Jews, Hispanic and Asian population would be hit hard and it has come to pass. These groups have an historic disregard for any authority telling them what to do, so social distancing was a very bitter pill to swallow and it shows in the stats. The other problem is with the poorer neighborhoods. A large percentage of the people living there are under nourished, generally unhealthy and ignorant to the biologic cause and effect of exposure. Not to mention not wanting to believe what the authorities have to say.

There is a Covid map by zip code and it backs up my theory in NYC. But, the same holds for the entire country.

It is odd that this has not followed in other large cities with the same problems. Chicago? Philly?
Or at least not in the same numbers anywhere near like NYC is having.

[tadd]

NYC is one of the major international hubs for the eastern seaboard. So is BWI and Atlanta.

Any correlation as to the number of COVID cases being near a major airport from Europe?

I have really wondered why my wife's hospital is so slammed. We are 40 miles out of Baltimore in the burbs... but near BWI??

I have no clue as to why California is not bitten. Kind of like the life in the universe theory. Given all the planets, galaxy should be teeming with life, right? So why not? Well, we are either at the tail end of things or we are at the very beginning. CA may have already been zapped or it is yet to arrive.

Time will tell.

[island911]

Originally Posted by legion

The government has no legitimate authority to lock healthy people in their homes. The fact that anyone thinks this okay is incredibly disturbing.

THIS ^ so disturbing.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

There are studies coming out that suggest that many more people have been exposed to this than originally thought. If so, many people may already have full or partial immunity.

As a counterpoint there are also some studies suggesting that something like 30% of those infected and recovered do not produce antibodies sufficient to ward off a recurrence.

In other words we don’t really know, but I’m betting the first point is probably more true. There are probably a lot more people who have caught this and been asymptomatic than we think. Only antibody testing will confirm that and it’s still probably months away from deployment and having statistically relevant sample sizes.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

Originally Posted by island911

THIS ^ so disturbing.

More disturbing is people just seem to grin and bear it with nary a peep.

That’s how liberty dies.

[06C2S]

Originally Posted by NY65912

A large part of the NYC problem is cultural and socioeconomic. Before the quarantine went into effect here I told my son to watch specific neighborhoods and ethnic groups as the virus will be much worse there.

I predicted that the Caribbean, Hasidic Jews, Hispanic and Asian population would be hit hard and it has come to pass. These groups have an historic disregard for any authority telling them what to do, so social distancing was a very bitter pill to swallow and it shows in the stats. The other problem is with the poorer neighborhoods. A large percentage of the people living there are under nourished, generally unhealthy and ignorant to the biologic cause and effect of exposure. Not to mention not wanting to believe what the authorities have to say.

There is a Covid map by zip code and it backs up my theory in NYC. But, the same holds for the entire country.

Actually its more to do with those populations generally live in close quarters and don't believe in personal space not the disregard for authority. Also not under nourished, its poor food choices which contribute to obesity, and other underlying health issues which seems to greatly amplify the effects of this virus.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by Porsche-O-Phile

There are studies coming out that suggest that many more people have been exposed to this than originally thought. If so, many people may already have full or partial immunity.

As a counterpoint there are also some studies suggesting that something like 30% of those infected and recovered do not produce antibodies sufficient to ward off a recurrence.

In other words we don’t really know, but I’m betting the first point is probably more true. There are probably a lot more people who have caught this and been asymptomatic than we think. Only antibody testing will confirm that and it’s still probably months away from deployment and having statistically relevant sample sizes.

We know there are a lot of unknown cases. The current "trials" are all over the map and are using unapproved tests with unknown accuracy.

Stanford said 50-85
USC says 28-55
Chelsea says 15
Swedish trial said 999 before it got pulled for inaccuracy.

[rusnak]

Originally Posted by tadd

NYC is one of the major international hubs for the eastern seaboard. So is BWI and Atlanta.

Any correlation as to the number of COVID cases being near a major airport from Europe?

I have really wondered why my wife's hospital is so slammed. We are 40 miles out of Baltimore in the burbs... but near BWI??

I have no clue as to why California is not bitten. Kind of like the life in the universe theory. Given all the planets, galaxy should be teeming with life, right? So why not? Well, we are either at the tail end of things or we are at the very beginning. CA may have already been zapped or it is yet to arrive.

Time will tell.

As Victor Davis Hansen has said, there is no way that we can think California was not exposed to the virus. I think the first known case in California is now November. I have to go back and look for the article about that. I also understand that the Stanford researchers believe that the number of cases may have been underestimated by 50-fold.

[island911]

December is what I heard for CA.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by rusnak

As Victor Davis Hansen has said, there is no way that we can think California was not exposed to the virus. I think the first known case in California is now November. I have to go back and look for the article about that. I also understand that the Stanford researchers believe that the number of cases may have been underestimated by 50-fold.

Stanford trial should never have been released. It's methodology was terrible and has been raked over the coals.

[tadd]

Originally Posted by rusnak

As Victor Davis Hansen has said, there is no way that we can think California was not exposed to the virus. I think the first known case in California is now November. I have to go back and look for the article about that. I also understand that the Stanford researchers believe that the number of cases may have been underestimated by 50-fold.

Run:
So why did CA avoid a spike in deaths well over and above the normal background? We know the disease kills. NYC is painfully obvious as are other places.

Does CA not have cites like NYC? No super dense population areas? I don't know enough about LA or SFC to know any better.

[Paul T]

Originally Posted by Porsche-O-Phile

There are studies coming out that suggest that many more people have been exposed to this than originally thought. If so, many people may already have full or partial immunity.

As a counterpoint there are also some studies suggesting that something like 30% of those infected and recovered do not produce antibodies sufficient to ward off a recurrence.

In other words we don’t really know, but I’m betting the first point is probably more true. There are probably a lot more people who have caught this and been asymptomatic than we think. Only antibody testing will confirm that and it’s still probably months away from deployment and having statistically relevant sample sizes.

There are also some studies coming out (from cruise ship patients) that show over half of asymptomatic cases had abnormal lung opacities visible on CT scans. Now, there is no causation there....but seems improbable that that many people on a given cruise would coincidentally have lung issues. There is a lot we don't know.....

[rusnak]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

Stanford trial should never have been released. It's methodology was terrible and has been raked over the coals.

The point still remains that California was exposed to the virus months before shelter in place, and has a much lower rate now of confirmed cases and deaths. That means the mortality rate is being reported much higher than it really is in California. And you know where that leads to- that shelter in place is a blunt over-reaction. I say again, everyone will eventually be exposed to the virus, and for now the only thing stopping it is your own body.

[rusnak]

Originally Posted by tadd

Run:
So why did CA avoid a spike in deaths well over and above the normal background? We know the disease kills. NYC is painfully obvious as are other places.

Does CA not have cites like NYC? No super dense population areas? I don't know enough about LA or SFC to know any better.

SF Bay Area has BART, but no subways. NYC has not been able to just stop the subways from running. That means their initial spread will have been much higher than California. We also know that California had a really severe flu season in Fall 2019. More reported deaths than normal, but not enough to fill semi-trailers of dead bodies.

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by tadd

Run:
So why did CA avoid a spike in deaths well over and above the normal background? We know the disease kills. NYC is painfully obvious as are other places.

Does CA not have cites like NYC? No super dense population areas? I don't know enough about LA or SFC to know any better.

Just a guess....major international airports, then everyone is crammed on subways & trains, high density burroughs, and high rise apts. etc.

Utopia for the virus....

[Rikao4]

BIL is an ER nurse in CA ( Oakland are)..
he swears he had this last Nov / Dec..
normally healthy as a horse..
this brought him down..
thought it was just a bad flu..
and that's what they treated..

he's in NC now..
looking to test to see if he did..

Rika