The "Second Wave"

[island911]

Originally Posted by Aerkuld

You'd be wise to think about what quarantine is for. It makes bugger all difference how someone is feeling. If they're carrying, they're carrying and contagious. ....

Really. Then explain how people have antibodies to this virus.

read: people can be carrying and non-contagious, because their immune system works.

[jyl]

Originally Posted by masraum

That makes sense. In previous flu pandemics, the reason for the waves was probably greatly due to the fact that 1, the flu thrives in a cold dry environment and 2 while there has always been global travel, it has never been as cheap and accessible as it is these days.

So, if CV19 doesn't care if it's cold and dry or hot and wet, then it shouldn't surge in particular times or climates. Although, with global travel what it is in these times (when travel isn't locked down) that shouldn't matter much since it's almost always cold and dry somewhere, and folks are probably always going to/from those spots to other spots.

It could have a second wave due to seasonality, or due to control measures being lifted or failing - see Singapore etc

[masraum]

Originally Posted by jyl

It could have a second wave due to seasonality, or due to control measures being lifted or failing - see Singapore etc

That's what I'm expecting, we lift and things ramp up a bit.

[jyl]

Originally Posted by island911

Really. Then explain how people have antibodies to this virus.

read: people can be carrying and non-contagious, because their immune system works.

Having antibodies is not the same thing as being actively infected.

Asymptomatic infected persons shed virus, despite being, well, asymptomatic. Something about them makes the disease so mild that they don’t notice anything wrong. But they are shedding virus all the same, for the first phase of their infection, until their immune systems get control of the infection. There is a second phase when they are recovering and not shedding much, again they don’t know anything is going on. Afterwards, they will have antibodies which will be how they learn they ever had the disease.

Bummer to come in contact with them when they are shedding.

[legion]

Can people with a cold or flu virus be asymptomatic? Do we lock everyone up so that people with vulnerable immune systems don't die from them?

[Porsche-O-Phile]

There will be peaks and valleys of course but as time goes on we are increasingly more immune (more and more people have been exposed to this - there’s research starting to come out showing that it’s possible that MANY more people have been exposed to it and were / are asymptomatic than originally thought). So do you quarantine people that have already had it too? That’s just crazy. At some point this has to end. We can’t allow the entire country’s economy to be deliberately tossed into the toilet just to satisfy one political party’s agenda.

I’ve said all along that the initial steps taken were justifiable as an immediate, short term way to “flatten the curve” and avoid overwhelming the healthcare system. They’re NOT a long term solution (nor are they constitutional, but that’s another discussion...) Government can’t be allowed to take the lazy / zero-effort “zero tolerance” route and simply close everything and tell everyone to sit at home as their livelihoods and savings slip away. That’s idiocy.

Even if you don’t believe there are forces more odious at work behind this now to keep the closures and pain going (and I for one definitely DO), it’s becoming unjustifiable. Government has a responsibility to come up with new guidelines to reopen safely with controlled risk, not just vapidly say “just close everything - were good” and pat themselves on the back for a job well done. We should DEMAND to know where the reopening guidelines are and force them to work tirelessly FOR US to put them in place.

[Crowbob]

Originally Posted by masraum

That's what I'm expecting, we lift and things ramp up a bit.

Lifting may cause a second wave. And maybe not. But the stay at home orders and shut-downs will not likely to reduce the number of infectious cases. What would be really stupid would be to dissassemble the field hospitals, reduce PPE production and distribution or any of the other projects that were initiated to treat the thousands and thousands of cases that never happened.

The shut-down was initiated to smooth the numbers that we were unprepared for, not reduce them. If we are better prepared (supposedly) why not lift?

I agree with P-O-P. This crisis has been deliberately morphed into a political operation.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by legion

Can people with a cold or flu virus be asymptomatic? Do we lock everyone up so that people with vulnerable immune systems don't die from them?

Over the last 20 years 4,000 die on avg during month of April in NY city. Highest April death toll in those 20 years was 4607 in 2001. That is for all illnesses and accidents other than a terrorist act. So far, this April, NY city has 7,000 deaths coded as Covid-19.

It ain't a cold. It ain't the flu.

[legion]

And in my county we have had 3 deaths and 81 total cases, 6 of which are currently active. Yet we are locked up for our own good. That's the problem with one-size-fits all solutions. New York is in a state of emergency. We never were here.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by legion

And in my county we have had 3 deaths and 81 total cases, 6 of which are currently active. Yet we are locked up for our own good. That's the problem with one-size-fits all solutions. New York is in a state of emergency. We never were here.

I agree. NYC didn't take it seriously and let it get out of hand and you can see where it got them. I am just tired of people comparing it to a cold or the flu. NYC clearly shows it is far more of a threat. For the month of April it alone could end up having twice the number of deaths than heart attacks, cancer, flu, accidents, murder, and every other cause of death combined.

[group911@aol.co]

Another sycophant under the bus.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/trump-georgia-governor-kemp-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Yet, someone keeps goading the "let's open it up" morons.

[RWebb]

Let's Kill Grandma

[jyl]

Originally Posted by legion

And in my county we have had 3 deaths and 81 total cases, 6 of which are currently active. Yet we are locked up for our own good. That's the problem with one-size-fits all solutions. New York is in a state of emergency. We never were here.

So are you out licking door handles?

[jyl]

Originally Posted by Porsche-O-Phile

There will be peaks and valleys of course but as time goes on we are increasingly more immune (more and more people have been exposed to this - there’s research starting to come out showing that it’s possible that MANY more people have been exposed to it and were / are asymptomatic than originally thought). So do you quarantine people that have already had it too? That’s just crazy. At some point this has to end. We can’t allow the entire country’s economy to be deliberately tossed into the toilet just to satisfy one political party’s agenda.

I’ve said all along that the initial steps taken were justifiable as an immediate, short term way to “flatten the curve” and avoid overwhelming the healthcare system. They’re NOT a long term solution (nor are they constitutional, but that’s another discussion...) Government can’t be allowed to take the lazy / zero-effort “zero tolerance” route and simply close everything and tell everyone to sit at home as their livelihoods and savings slip away. That’s idiocy.

Even if you don’t believe there are forces more odious at work behind this now to keep the closures and pain going (and I for one definitely DO), it’s becoming unjustifiable. Government has a responsibility to come up with new guidelines to reopen safely with controlled risk, not just vapidly say “just close everything - were good” and pat themselves on the back for a job well done. We should DEMAND to know where the reopening guidelines are and force them to work tirelessly FOR US to put them in place.

We have become an impatient society. Most states have been under social distancing orders for less than a month. Your state is seeing 100 Covid deaths a day. Your curve is one of the steepest in the country, and isn’t flattening. Given your job, you’re probably not suffering financially. Yet you’re acting like its “Red Dawn”. Yes, your state needs to communicate what criteria it will use to decide when and how to lift the restrictions, so people can assess the actions. Whatever criteria they are, I suspect you’re not there - not with IL’s curve as steep and linear as it is.

[island911]

Originally Posted by jyl

Having antibodies is not the same thing as being actively infected.

Asymptomatic infected persons shed virus, despite being, well, asymptomatic. Something about them makes the disease so mild that they don’t notice anything wrong. But they are shedding virus all the same, for the first phase of their infection, until their immune systems get control of the infection. There is a second phase when they are recovering and not shedding much, again they don’t know anything is going on. Afterwards, they will have antibodies which will be how they learn they ever had the disease.

Bummer to come in contact with them when they are shedding.

Bold mine. (and my point. Although I would strike the word "much." )

How I would say it: There is a second phase when they are carrying the virus but their immune response has stopped the shedding of the live virus.

[jyl]

Originally Posted by group911@aol.co

Another sycophant under the bus.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/trump-georgia-governor-kemp-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Yet, someone keeps goading the "let's open it up" morons.

Hard for a governor to get much guidance from the White House, so many conflicting messages are being sent. It feels like a game of buck passing. Rail against shutdowns, encourage protestors, then when a governor takes the cue, kick him under the bus, heads I win, tails you lose. If it goes badly, I told you not to, if it goes well, I was right there with you.

I am interested in the experiments that Georgia and others are doing in reopening now. The health consequences will be interesting to see, but also the business consequences. Will consumers actually come back to restaurants, will large companies end WFH, how much faith will people actually have that their safety is assured?

[island911]

Originally Posted by RWebb

Let's Kill Grandma

When saving grandma is the only goal... (it's not)

Then we are told that there is but one solution... (there's not)

All sorts of people still have heart conditions, diabetes, high BP, inflamed gallbladders...... and they avoid going to hospital.

Clearly RWebb wants them dead.

[rusnak]

Originally Posted by RWebb

Let's Kill Grandma

Who is "Let's"? The Chinese government, or the American people?

You would form an outward-facing circular firing squad to bring this killer to justice?

After all, "stay at home" is not going to "save Grandma". It will delay the exposure, which is going to happen no matter what. That is the purpose behind social distancing. You need to wake up and finally get it. It will be up to Grandma to save herself until the only thing that CAN save her is invented by medical technology - a vaccine that works.

The ONLY ROLE THAT GOVERNMENT POLICY CAN HAVE is to try not to kill the rest of us, by relaxing some of the Draconian, disproportionate measures that you no-think types seem to champion.

[rusnak]

Originally Posted by Porsche-O-Phile

“Never let a crisis go to waste”

This very quickly turned from:

A Curiosity
to Denial
to Mockery
to Concern
to Fear and Hoarding
to Panic
to Genuinely Trying to Protect Others
to Opportunism / Election Year Stunts
to Control
to Rampant Abuse of Power
to Authoritarianism

Where does it go from here? That’s up to us.

"Lock them up!" "Lock them up!"

BTW "them" are people not wearing a piece of cotton underwear over the lower half of their face. THAT, my friends, is how much hysteria is being indulged. Heaven forbid anyone have any logic or common sense in this orgy of fear and Kabuki theater, political showmanship. It is, after all, an election year.

[island911]

" people not wearing a piece of cotton underwear over the lower half of their face."



well, we all know how well a piece of cotton underwear holds back farts from propagating. That's why I wear a second layer of cotton.