Sweden Did It Wrong

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy

Amen! Btw per the numbers on Worldometer, Sweden has slightly more deaths per million than the USA and slightly less cases per million. All without shutting down and decimating their country. Are you guys SURE they didn’t have the better approach?

But if you were one of those who were getting paid (well) through gubmint handouts to stay home, opening up the economy would seem like a terrible idea!

[speeder]

The bottom line, from everything I’ve read, is that herd immunity will never occur without a vaccine. That’s the only way it works, folks.

[Eric Coffey]

Originally Posted by RSBob

Don’t remember the name of the member who conjectured about the brilliance of Sweden’s approach to snuffing out CV19 by using herd immunity. Their name is not important, but what is important is what an utter failure there approach turned out to be documented in many publications but summarized nicely here: https://www.wired.co.uk/article/sweden-coronavirus-herd-immunity

Your "summary" article is a month old, and the author's claim that Sweden has had the "highest number of deaths per-capita in the World" is disingenuous.
It was only true for daily per-capita deaths (not total per-capita deaths), and only during one specific week, and only when using a 7-day average.
Remove any of those "qualifiers" and that statement becomes a lie. All data can be manipulated, so you really need to broaden/deepen your understanding of the subject for a more accurate appraisal, IMO.

For instance, here is a real-time representation of per-capita C19 deaths showing how Belgium, Spain, Italy, and the UK "got it wrong" compared to Sweden:

[jamesnmlaw]

to calc your chances: # of deaths from virus / # of outcome

# of outcome = # of recovered cases + # of deaths from virus

for the US, as of yesterday, 10.65% chance of dying if you get infected

UK, Spain, Sweden, Netherlands aren't reporting # of recovered cases or # of active cases so you can't extrapolate # of outcome and therefore can't extrapolate death % of those infected..... “Who controls the past controls the future. Who controls the present controls the past.” works the same for statistics

as of yesterday, death % is infected: 15.43% Italy; 4.80% Germany; 28.06% France; 11.28% Canada; 36.43% Belgium

perhaps we should ask the Germans what they're doing but we might not like the answer

of course, statistics are only relevant if the data is correct i.e., what is 'recovered' and what is 'a death caused by the virus' so this is all just a steaming pile

risk of contracting? don't know but I'll do whatever I have to do to minimize exposure even if it means avoidance and other preventative measures like not going to a bar or a movie theater and when I do go out for the necessaries I wear an M95 mask and gloves and wipe myself down with sanitizer because it is the best I can do to protect myself even though I wonder if I'm developing Howie Mandel syndrome

I only hope that the virus mutates to something lesser or that the big brains will develop a vaccine or at least develop a more successful treatment regimen but meanwhile I'll do the best that I can do and try not to think about it too much

putting my tinfoil hat on so I can get back to my real job

I am

thinking all the time so that you don't have to

[RWebb]

Originally Posted by livi

... forced a mass-migration of tightly packed, illiterate people to our country. ....

Finns??

[onewhippedpuppy]

Originally Posted by speeder

The bottom line, from everything I’ve read, is that herd immunity will never occur without a vaccine. That’s the only way it works, folks.

Sorry Denis but that’s frankly not true. The vast majority of pandemics ended not with vaccines but with herd immunity. Considering the limited effectiveness of vaccines over time, and the fact that many pandemics still don’t have a vaccine, it’s not the holy grail. To say that a vaccine is the end game is disingenuous because it might not ever come.

[G50]

One very interesting thing I read about Sweden yesterday is that 79% of their deaths occurred in nursing/convalescent homes.
Not sure why that is.
But given their approach, the deaths outside of nursing homes (which is probably what, 99% of the population) isn’t very high.

[G50]

Like NY, Sweden clearly went wrong with regard to nursing homes.
Unlike NY, they seem to freely acknowledge that.

[Rawknees'Turbo]

Originally Posted by masraum

Meh, yes, there are folks that are not worried about it because they think it's no big deal, a hoax, whatever, but those same folks exist everywhere else.

Texas is actually doing really well, far better than most places. We've had a lot of cases recently, but we've also got a ton of people in the state, so there should be a ton of cases. When you look at the cases/million and deaths/million, we are way down the list.

For cases and deaths per million, we are 30 out of 50 which is pretty impressive since we are 2 out of 50 in total population.

Florida is worse, but still not at the top of the list.

Agreed with all that; I cited Texas in my response since I live here and have observed the things I mentioned (wasn't implying that it was a TexASS only thing).

[onewhippedpuppy]

Originally Posted by G50

One very interesting thing I read about Sweden yesterday is that 79% of their deaths occurred in nursing/convalescent homes.
Not sure why that is.
But given their approach, the deaths outside of nursing homes (which is probably what, 99% of the population) isn’t very high.

Almost all of our local deaths were in nursing homes. This virus has consistently shown to be the most dangerous to those with severely depressed immune systems. That’s been a constant globally.

[livi]

Originally Posted by RWebb

Finns??

Hehe. We used to joke about Finns and Norwegians. Not any more. We are now the bad seed in Scandinavia.

[island911]

Originally Posted by RSBob

Don’t remember the name of the member who conjectured about the brilliance of Sweden’s approach to snuffing out CV19 by using herd immunity. Their name is not important, but what is important is what an utter failure there approach turned out to be ...[snip]..

My prediction on the Did it Right thread was that their approach was doomed to failure, and unfortunately it came true. Teyhass and Floriduh went down nearly identical rabbit holes, through denial, thanks to their stellar leaders.

I love these smarmy call-out threads that step on the proverbial rake.



btw, an utter failure there approach turned out to be .. there? ... "Floriduh"?

[Shaun @ Tru6]

[island911]

Norway was not too far off Sweden in actions taken, but they did close their schools for a week, iirc. And yet the biggest factor is that they did not get hit as hard.

Originally Posted by Eric Coffey

Your "summary" article is a month old, and the author's claim that Sweden has had the "highest number of deaths per-capita in the World" is disingenuous.
It was only true for daily per-capita deaths (not total per-capita deaths), and only during one specific week, and only when using a 7-day average.
Remove any of those "qualifiers" and that statement becomes a lie. All data can be manipulated, so you really need to broaden/deepen your understanding of the subject for a more accurate appraisal, IMO.

For instance, here is a real-time representation of per-capita C19 deaths showing how Belgium, Spain, Italy, and the UK "got it wrong" compared to Sweden:

Spot on. And add San Marino to that chart and we see that there is no correlation to "lockdowns."

[G50]

Latest data from Sweden.
Cases up (possibly because of more testing? Idk)
But deaths way down.
Hmmm.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

When you search for that image, it comes up in essentially 2 URLs and a twitter feed.

台股站上11900點「周線連三紅」！財經專家：近期資金充沛、新供應鏈也崛起

and zerohedge which everyone knows is garbage as a source.

Where did you get it from?

Originally Posted by G50

Latest data from Sweden.
Cases up.
But deaths way down.
Hmmm.

[G50]

Originally Posted by jamesnmlaw

for the US, as of yesterday, 10.65% chance of dying if you get infected

The mass panic would be unfathomable if that were even close to true.

[onewhippedpuppy]

Originally Posted by G50

The mass panic would be unfathomable if that were even close to true.

Plus his logic is crap. If you take deaths / total positive cases in the USA you get 4.6%, which is way overstated because we don’t actually know total cases. Most of the random sampling studies have concluded that there are several orders of magnitude more people who have had it and were asymptomatic. Most of the positive cases are either people who felt sick and requested a test, or part of a large group that was tested in bulk (meat packing plant, nursing home, etc). You can’t calculate a true fatality rate because you don’t know the denominator. That’s why looking at deaths per million actually gives a nice data point to compare between countries.

[G50]

The info in the chart is apparently from worldometers.info

Here’s directly from worldometers

[Eric Coffey]

Originally Posted by island911

Norway was not too far off Sweden in actions taken, but they did close their schools for a week, iirc. And yet the biggest factor is that they did not get hit as hard.

+1

And of course Norway has half the population (and half the work force) of Sweden.
They also have vastly different geographies/demographics.

When further compared to Norway, Sweden has:

A much higher percentage of the population who is 65+ years old, and...
Far more (and more active) ports/trade routes, and...
5x the rail/roadway infrastructure, and...
3x the number of airports, and...
5x the refugee population, and...
3x the number of "eldercare" facilities, and...


Funny how none of the pretty charts ever seem to explain/reveal the other potential factors to consider.