Sweden Did It Wrong

[Tobra]

Originally Posted by G50

So I agree with what someone said above. At this point, was it a success or failure? Unknown. Saying otherwise is just a reaction driven by emotional political bias.

I agree, here is an example.

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

Haha, ok smart guy, you win! Cuz AZ and MA are like N and S Dakota they are so alike. Let's not change the subject because you don't want to be proven wrong.

What does the death rate have to be on a weekly or monthly basis over 1 year, or 2 years, for Denmark, Finland and Norway to just equal the Swedish death rate to date?

That's the math you need to do. That's the topic we are on.

Sweden: 5550 deaths to date

Norway: 251, Sweden 22 times # of deaths

Denmark: 609, Sweden 9 times # of deaths

Finland: 329, Sweden 17 times # of deaths

This, after having established that Sweden differs greatly from other Scandinavian countries with respect to demographics.

[dad911]

Total deaths, Normalized by population, Sweden is in the top 5 (worst) countries. USA is 430/million, Sweden is 540/million.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

Yea but if Sweden has basically “topped out” and everyone else’s death counts continue to climb (they will) who will have had the right approach by the time all is said and done? That’s the real question.

Predicting the winner of a marathon by who’s ahead at Mile 7 is not going to be very accurate...

[dad911]

Washington State, again total deaths normalized by population, is 192 deaths/million. 1/2 US average, 35% Sweden.

[pmax]

Can't compare two different demographics, Sweden has an older population, on death rates. Cases, yes.

WA is still not done yet.

[dad911]

Originally Posted by Porsche-O-Phile

Yea but if Sweden has basically “topped out” and everyone else’s death counts continue to climb (they will) who will have had the right approach by the time all is said and done? That’s the real question.

Predicting the winner of a marathon by who’s ahead at Mile 7 is not going to be very accurate...

Sweden has not 'topped out', and is climbing faster than most of Europe. I added Washington state to chart. All normalized by population.



Data from here: An interactive visualization of the exponential spread of COVID-19 | 91-DIVOC

[Porsche-O-Phile]

Based on Island’s graph I’d expect that curve to level off within the next few days... if very few new instances are being reported (what I mean by topped out”) as per that graph then the deaths per 1M is going to climb for other nations while Sweden’s curve goes flat or even decreases some (accounting for gradual net population increase)

[island911]

Originally Posted by dad911

Total deaths, Normalized by population, Sweden is in the top 5 (worst) countries. USA is 430/million, Sweden is 540/million.

And the STATE of New York has 1,679/million

And the State of NY took all kinds of drastic measures. Sweden did not.

Now I'm not trying to be down on NY, but rather point out that any region can get hit particularly hard.

Again, 1,679/million vs Sweden is 540/million - If you think that you can claim that Sweden did it wrong, just look at their death per million without then saying NY State did it wrong, just look at their death per million. all the while knowing that NY State had anti-social distancing and school closures and business closures
and mask wearing... (like so many other States)then you are missing the relevance, or lack thereof.

[island911]

My info is from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries (a University of Washington creation)

[Sooner or later]

Worldometer is not a UW creation. You are thinking of IHME

[dad911]

Charts I posted above wereby normalized by population.

Yes, NY & NJ much worse. If this was PARF, I'd be happy to discuss why.......

[Eric Coffey]

Originally Posted by dad911

Sweden has not 'topped out', and is climbing faster than most of Europe. I added Washington state to chart. All normalized by population.



Data from here: An interactive visualization of the exponential spread of COVID-19 | 91-DIVOC

More fun with graphs!

[island911]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

Worldometer is not a UW creation. You are thinking of IHME

Thanks for the correction.

[island911]

Dang ^Eric^ Massachusetts

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

...

Because that's my entire position. Sweden's model guaranteed needless deaths.

...

I wonder what Shaun's perspective is now on Sweden's model being guaranteed needless deaths.

[island911]

tap tap tap...

is this thing on?

Shaun?

Did Massachusetts not close down schools, businesses and mandate people wear masks?

Originally Posted by Eric Coffey

More fun with graphs!

[Cajundaddy]

This thing is far from over. Check back in 2024 to see how Sweden fared compared with the ROW both in terms of Covid and their economy. Currently both the USA and Sweden are projected to have approximately -6% growth in GDP though 2020. These numbers are also very fluid. Check back in 2024...

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/USA

[pmax]

[billybek]

Originally Posted by Cajundaddy

This thing is far from over. Check back in 2024 to see how Sweden fared compared with the ROW both in terms of Covid and their economy. Currently both the USA and Sweden are expected to have approximately -6% growth in GDP though 2020. These numbers are also very fluid. Check back in 2024...

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/USA

This.
Will see if Sweden has a second wave that is less severe than is predicted for other countries.

[island911]

Originally Posted by Cajundaddy

This thing is far from over. Check back in 2024 to see how Sweden fared compared with the ROW both in terms of Covid and their economy. Currently both the USA and Sweden are expected to have approximately -6% growth in GDP though 2020. These numbers are also very fluid. Check back in 2024...

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/USA

Originally Posted by billybek

This.
Will see if Sweden has a second wave that is less severe than is predicted for other countries.

Seems you guys are hoping for a second wave to devastate Sweden, all to 'be right.'

Sweden's expected growth, or lack thereof, is centered about their trading partners camping in a covid cower.

BUT, the Swedes are out living life. --not everything is about GDP.

Meanwhile, the States pretend that wearing bandanas and closing schools parks and businesses will be the answer.

[island911]

Originally Posted by RSBob

Don’t remember the name of the member who conjectured about the brilliance of Sweden’s approach to snuffing out CV19 by using herd immunity. Their name is not important, but what is important is what an utter failure there approach turned out to be documented in many publications but summarized nicely here: https://www.wired.co.uk/article/sweden-coronavirus-herd-immunity

Here is a cut and paste of their accelerating infection and death curve. The red bar is deaths and the orange are infected people from Wikipedia



My prediction on the Did it Right thread was that their approach was doomed to failure, and unfortunately it came true. Teyhass and Floriduh went down nearly identical rabbit holes, through denial, thanks to their stellar leaders.

The OP ^

So, RSBob...

Did ya see Eric's post?



Are you still sticking with "what an utter failure there[sic / Sweden's] approach turned out to be" ?