Sweden Did It Wrong

[Tobra]

Originally Posted by RSBob

Foolish is as foolish does. Or lacks comprehension.

If you had read my follow up post, you would have understood why I came up with the title. Must be asking too much. Need to keep it more simplistic in the future. Know you audience.

I think you must be lost, this is the forum where people are not rude and insulting.

[RWebb]

then people should stop posting foolish and stoopid things

contra legion, "Slowing" the spread insures more hospital and ICU facilities are available - it is not at all clear that immunity develops or lasts for an infected person who does not die and escapes chronic heart or other problems.

It is likely that Sweden did it wrong - we will know for sure later on. If your politics suffers from the facts of this disease, then post in PARF>>>>

[RSBob]

Thank you Mr. Web. Well said.

[gogriz91]

Someone get me a shot of diesel...

[legion]

Good to know that people will gladly give up their civil rights (and at the same time force others to surrender theirs unwillingly) because the media was able to spin something into a big enough perceived threat. And then to add insult to injury, those who take up the right causes are exempted from oppression.

[RWebb]

no shirt no shoes no service

[beepbeep]

I kinda doubt Swedish approach would work in US anyway.

First, we have free healthcare. So you do not wait until very sick just because you are afraid of the bill.

Second, we have paid sick leave. It would be very hard for an employer to fire someone because he/she is sick. So people stay at home at first sign of infection w/o worrying about money.

Third, people tend to follow government recommendation. So if government says: 2 meters distance, people do try to keep it in the shops, on the street etc.

Fourth, people are healthier and obesity is not as common.

Also, It is not "life as usual". Those who can work from home. Higher education moved online. And economy did drop quite a lot anyway.


But I still believe there is a chance we did the right thing as whole. Where we failed is to protect elderly (Most of those who died were 80+ )

[ckissick]

Trump says we should open schools because children are at low risk of death. The reporter on MSNBC discussed how horrible this idea was and that many children will die if we open schools. So I looked up how many children died in Sweden. The answer: 1 in the 0-19 age group. (I think the chart on the link is supposed to say "19 years and younger", not "9 years and younger".)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/

[jyl]

Originally Posted by ckissick

Trump says we should open schools because children are at low risk of death. The reporter on MSNBC discussed how horrible this idea was and that many children will die if we open schools. So I looked up how many children died in Sweden. The answer: 1 in the 0-19 age group. (I think the chart on the link is supposed to say "19 years and younger", not "9 years and younger".)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/

Children get infected by SARS2 at a similar rate as adults. While they almost always have mild or asymptomatic disease, they transmit the virus to adults quite effectively.

Contact tracing studies (Italy, S Korea) showed that older children (age 10-18) were the most effective viral spreaders. Meaning the % of their contacts who got infected was higher than the % for other age groups.

The data was inconclusive for younger children (age 0-19), with one study suggesting they were viral spreaders and the other suggesting otherwise; in both studies the number of younger children was tiny (a handful) which makes the results unreliable.

So the issue with opening schools is more about parents, teachers, staff, and the community. The risk to the children themselves is very low, though it does rise as you get into the higher grades/high school.

If a school district sends kids back to in-person school when the community still has high infection rates, there will quickly be kids infected, then the class and teacher will have to be quarantined for X days, or potentially the whole school closed down for X days. Those quarantines and closures will keep happening all school year. They will also have higher infection rates in the community, starting with parents and staff.

In theory, you could reopen schools with strict social distancing and extensive testing, as was done in some Asian countries - even there, schools have sometimes had to re-close. The US can't or won't do that. Exhibit A: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/mollyhensleyclancy/georgia-school-reopening-photo-paulding-county

[Jeff Higgins]

This is worth reading:

https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/08/04/how-bad-is-covid-really-a-swedish-doctors-perspective/

[RWebb]

The risk of death to the children themselves is very low.

The risks of multi-system inflammatory syndrome is higher, still 'low'...esp. if it's not your kid.

[ckissick]

Originally Posted by Jeff Higgins

This is worth reading:

https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/08/04/how-bad-is-covid-really-a-swedish-doctors-perspective/

This is exactly what I suspected all along. Not because I'm an expert at anything, but because I've always been an optimist and my gut instinct told me so.

[speeder]

Originally Posted by Jeff Higgins

This is worth reading:

https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/08/04/how-bad-is-covid-really-a-swedish-doctors-perspective/

6k dead in Sweden would translate into 24k dead so far in CA., more or less. CA. has ~10k dead and is considered a very bad place for Covid in the U.S. at this point. The U.S. is the worst place in the world, as far as countries go.

Pretty hard to celebrate Sweden at this point.

[Jeff Higgins]

Originally Posted by speeder

6k dead in Sweden would translate into 24k dead so far in CA., more or less. CA. has ~10k dead and is considered a very bad place for Covid in the U.S. at this point. The U.S. is the worst place in the world, as far as countries go.

Pretty hard to celebrate Sweden at this point.

They are playing the long game. They are counting on, in the end, everyone's death rate will be about the same. They look worse right now, in the short haul, by they are banking on not experiencing the second and third waves others will experience as restrictions are lifted. Time will tell. If, in the end, everyone comes out about the same with regards to death rates, and they did not shut everything down and suffer economically, that should tell us something about what to do "next time".

[pmax]

Originally Posted by speeder

Pretty hard to celebrate Sweden at this point.

Let's celebrate New York.

[island911]

Originally Posted by speeder

...

Pretty hard to celebrate Sweden at this point.

Especially hard to celebrate Sweden when you don't want to find anything good there.

While the ROW masked-up and shut-down Sweden said meh.

And what happened? First and foremost we got information on the effectiveness of our preventative measures.

While death per million is multifactorial we do know that the State of NJ and the State of NY did MUCH worse than Sweden.

If you can not (will not) see the ramifications of that then just put your fingers in your ears La La La La La La La La La like that. because you don't want to find anything good there.

[island911]

Belgium, England, Spain, Italy all have higher death per population than Sweden.

NJ and NY State are on the order of 3x worse. Massachusetts and Connecticut are on the order of 2x worse. (than Sweden)

Should we celebrate all of the masking and "shelter in place" that took place in those States and countries?

Actually, it seems that we are celebrating those methods, as Governors continue to shut-down and mask-up.

[pmax]

Even better than lockdown poster child MI

[island911]

Yep!

Originally Posted by Eric Coffey

More fun with graphs!

[pmax]

Speaking of MI, is Whitmer done yet ?

Whitmer extends emergency declaration in Michigan through Aug. 11
Craig Mauger and Melissa Nann Burke, The Detroit News Published 3:10 p.m. ET July 14, 2020 | Updated 8:55 p.m. ET July 14, 2020

Lansing — Gov. Gretchen Whitmer extended her state of emergency declaration for Michigan through Aug. 11, saying Tuesday that COVID-19 is "still a very real threat in our state."

The nearly four-week extension comes as the governor's office says every region in Michigan saw an uptick in new COVID-19 cases over the past three weeks as other states have experienced spikes in infections and hospitalization

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/07/14/whitmer-extends-emergency-declaration-michigan-through-aug-11/5437326002/