Sweden Did It Wrong

[jyl]

Originally Posted by Rawknees'Turbo

The orange guy told the whole world that the heat of spring would send the virus packing; of course when he said that, one would have been wise to conclude that the virus would actually have a tougher time surviving in the dead of winter.

Yes, you can show in a lab that the virus “survives” for less time at higher temperature and with more sunlight. But at the same time you could see the virus spreading just fine in tropical climates. Real world evidence trumps theory.

AC is probably also an issue. In Phoenix in July, people don’t spend much time outside ... they gather indoors where it is AC’d.

[G50]

Other than the cohort of people (1) over 70 AND (2) in nursing homes or home care, Sweden didn’t do too bad at all.
Kept schools open, businesses open etc. Life for a lot of people, including kids, was not turned upside down.

“As of June 24, 3,612 people aged 70 or more living in care homes or receiving home care had died from Covid-19, according to data from the National Board of Health and Welfare. That represents 79% of the total deaths recorded up to that date.”

Those people are already “sheltered in place,” so Sweden’s approach suggests a lot of things.

Perhaps one being that forcing non-retirement age, healthy people to hide in their houses for 3 months may not necessarily be that useful or of the most net benefit.

Another one being their keeping their schools open. They don’t have the mess that we now have with kids going back to school soon, and now 2 years of education being disrupted.

[G50]

So I agree with what someone said above. At this point, was it a success or failure? Unknown. Saying otherwise is just a reaction driven by emotional political bias.

[Jeff Higgins]

Originally Posted by jyl

That must be why so many countries, from Korea to Taiwan, New Zealand to Italy, China to Australia, have somehow managed to control their virus epidemics, and now the US is one of the disease pariahs along with Brazil, India, Russia and other places without a fraction of our resources.

Within the US, that must be why Washington, Oregon, and others have managed to hold cases down while Texas, Florida, Arizona are seeing it get out of control like it did in New York.

You don’t have to know everything there is to know about something to take effective actions. We know enough about this virus to know how to more or less control it, sure with crude and costly measures that are way suboptimal, but still work. We just don’t always do what it takes.

Interesting take, I'll give you that. I'm not sure many will agree that China and Italy managed to "control" their outbreaks, but I guess that is a matter of subjective analysis. Again, like I said earlier - confirmation bias. Everything is so nebulous, so ill defined, that we can ascribe any cause to any result we so desire. There is absolutely no way to say with any certainty that one population would have been more or less "successful" had they taken a different approach. The ultimate opportunity for the "Monday morning quarterbacks" among us.

Originally Posted by jyl

I find that engineers are particularly prone to analysis paralysis in this sort of situation. I think that they are used to situations that they understand really well, down to decimal places, where the principles and details have been very well figured out, and they have very good insight and tools. So a situation where we are learning as we go along, dealing with conflicting and incomplete data, don’t know many of the fundamentals of how things work, is very frustrating for them.

Absolutely. Guilty as charged. We are data driven. We make decisions based on observable, quantifiable data. We expect others to do so as well, at least insofar as they wish to make decisions on how others should live their lives. When they are making law, imposing their authority upon the rest of us, we would prefer their decisions to be data driven. If they do not know, if they do not have solid data supporting their decisions that will ultimately affect other's livelihoods, they have no right to impose their decisions on the rest of us.

While they busy are "winging it", others are suffering irreparable financial harm. They do not have the authority, legal nor moral, to act in this manner. It's one thing to go through life making these kinds of baseless decisions for themselves, but when they abuse their authority to impose their scatter gun, willy-nilly approach on the rest of us, they have gone too far.

[G50]

“Within the US, that must be why Washington, Oregon, and others have managed to hold cases down while Texas, Florida, Arizona are seeing it get out of control like it did in New York.”

Have Washington, Oregon etc. started opening up in earnest yet? (I don’t know the answer to that).

If not, that’s perhaps why.

[G50]

Because California was in that Washington etc group too for a while. But now it’s in the Texas group.

[island911]

Yep. (@ Jeff)

Engineers have demonstrated in school that they are capable of not only solving sets of equations ... multiple equations with multiple unknowns, but also be able to identify when some of those multiple equations are actually the same eqn. In the real world this carries over to visualizing solution spaces for all sorts of systems. --as in finding regions of a matrix /set where a solution may exist. And is actually the opposite of particularly prone to analysis paralysis in this sort of situation.

For this particular topic I have been pointing to the fact that this has been spread quickly by people simply breathing. -not "spittle." And that this 3-6' rule is BS. That this virus can stay aloft like smoke in the air...

The only analysis paralysis in this sort of situation comes from those trying to follow the bouncing ball of bad information coming from "health professionals" with political motives.

Some here seem to believe that "you don't need to wear a mask. It won't help. Wash your hands." until the same "health professional" says "wear a mask, but not the kind we wear. Those are only for us."

Of course if you had a solid understanding of physics you would have spotted that BS much earlier, and avoided your analysis paralysis.

[island911]

Originally Posted by jyl

...
Within the US, that must be why Washington, Oregon, and others have managed to hold cases down while Texas, Florida, Arizona are seeing it get out of control like it did in New York...

TX is in the news for their huge spike.

Their 7 day rolling average recently shot up to 66 deaths per day.

The State of NY is down to 26 deaths per day. (7 day rolling average)

IOW The State of NY is down to what has been typical for the State of Texas.

(note the Y-axis scales)





And why is TX shooting up? They've had mask policy...

Also a heat wave that keeps people inside under AC. (as you have noted)

So many variables...

But in no WAY has Texas "shot up like New York."

Throughout this Texas has held numbers that NY is celebrating getting down to.

If Texas shoots up from their current high of 66 deaths per day to 1000 then you can say that Texas "shot up like New York."

[RWebb]

there was “quite obviously a potential for improvement in what we have done.”

- Anders Tegnell, interviewed by Sverige Radio, 2 June 2020

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally Posted by Eric Coffey

I see folks in MA aren't as smart as they think they are.

Some "easy math" for you:

AZ population: 7,300,000.
AZ COVID-19 cases: 113,000.
AZ COVID-19 deaths: 2048.
Localized CFR = 1.8%

MA population: 6,700,000.
MA COVID-19 cases: 111,000.
MA COVID-19 deaths: 8268.
Localized CFR = 7.4%

Haha, ok smart guy, you win! Cuz AZ and MA are like N and S Dakota they are so alike. Let's not change the subject because you don't want to be proven wrong.

What does the death rate have to be on a weekly or monthly basis over 1 year, or 2 years, for Denmark, Finland and Norway to just equal the Swedish death rate to date?

That's the math you need to do. That's the topic we are on.

Sweden: 5550 deaths to date

Norway: 251, Sweden 22 times # of deaths

Denmark: 609, Sweden 9 times # of deaths

Finland: 329, Sweden 17 times # of deaths

[island911]

NY State 32,343 dead, 6 times more than Sweden

Pennsylvania 6,904 dead...

Oh wait, we are talking nations. ...

US 135,978 dead, 25 times # of deaths of Sweden



Now can you see how stupid is your "math"?

[jyl]

Originally Posted by island911

TX is in the news for their huge spike.

Their 7 day rolling average recently shot up to 66 deaths per day.

The State of NY is down to 26 deaths per day. (7 day rolling average)

IOW The State of NY is down to what has been typical for the State of Texas.

(note the Y-axis scales)





And why is TX shooting up? They've had mask policy...

Also a heat wave that keeps people inside under AC. (as you have noted)

So many variables...

But in no WAY has Texas "shot up like New York."

Throughout this Texas has held numbers that NY is celebrating getting down to.

If Texas shoots up from their current high of 66 deaths per day to 1000 then you can say that Texas "shot up like New York."

Do you comprehend how time lags work? In your world, do effects always immediately follow causes?

See my other post - when NY first hit 7000 new cases/day, deaths/day were only 100. A month later, the deaths/day were 1300 - because effects take time to manifest. Today, TX is at 7000 new cases/day and you're confident that deaths/day will stay at the current 50?

[Eric Coffey]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

Haha, ok smart guy, you win! Cuz AZ and MA are like N and S Dakota they are so alike. Let's not change the subject because you don't want to be proven wrong.

Poor Shaun...Never seems to see the folly of his own "logic", even when lead around by the hand, and/or when it's thrown back at him.

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

What does the death rate have to be on a weekly or monthly basis over 1 year, or 2 years, for Denmark, Finland and Norway to just equal the Swedish death rate to date?

That's the math you need to do. That's the topic we are on.

Sweden: 5550 deaths to date

Norway: 251, Sweden 22 times # of deaths

Denmark: 609, Sweden 9 times # of deaths

Finland: 329, Sweden 17 times # of deaths

Well, if you are not inclined to include even the most basic/obvious variables, like population/per-capita numbers, I'd say you need a refresher on arithmetic, or you are just being willfully ignorant. If it's the latter, then lets play:

Wait, Shaun! You forgot Iceland, another Nordic country (so, it must be "comparable"): 10.

Findland: 33 times # of deaths of Iceland
Denmark: 61 times # of deaths of Iceland.
Norway: 25 times # of deaths of Iceland.

What does the death rate have to be on a weekly or monthly basis over 1 year, or 2 years, for Iceland to just equal the death rate for Denmark, Finland, and Norway?

That's the math you need to do. That's the topic we're on (cuz I say so ).

How are Finland, Denmark, and Norway "getting it so wrong" compared to Iceland?
Why are they failing so much compared to Iceland?
Why are we all not following the "Iceland" model?!?!?

[G50]

5500 deaths out of 10 MILLION people?
And 80% of those were on death’s door already.
This is not exactly the Black Plague of Sweden.

[island911]

Originally Posted by jyl

Do you comprehend how time lags work? In your world, do effects always immediately follow causes?

See my other post - when NY first hit 7000 new cases/day, deaths/day were only 100. A month later, the deaths/day were 1300 - because effects take time to manifest. Today, TX is at 7000 new cases/day and you're confident that deaths/day will stay at the current 50?

Do you know how to read? (just mocking you there - I know that you know how to read.

Here it is again (what I wrote, and what you even quoted)

If Texas shoots up from their current high of 66 deaths per day to 1000 then you can say that Texas "shot up like New York."

[Eric Coffey]

Originally Posted by G50

5500 deaths out of 10 MILLION people?
And 80% of those were on death’s door already.
This is not exactly the Black Plague of Sweden.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally Posted by Jeff Higgins

Absolutely. Guilty as charged. We are data driven. We make decisions based on observable, quantifiable data. We expect others to do so as well, at least insofar as they wish to make decisions on how others should live their lives. When they are making law, imposing their authority upon the rest of us, we would prefer their decisions to be data driven. If they do not know, if they do not have solid data supporting their decisions that will ultimately affect other's livelihoods, they have no right to impose their decisions on the rest of us.

While they busy are "winging it", others are suffering irreparable financial harm. They do not have the authority, legal nor moral, to act in this manner. It's one thing to go through life making these kinds of baseless decisions for themselves, but when they abuse their authority to impose their scatter gun, willy-nilly approach on the rest of us, they have gone too far.

This is a great description of the difference between engineers and scientists.

Engineers deal with finite knowledge that has been tested and proven to be absolute. Want to design something, engineers simply have to refer to finite data in scores of tables. Look up a modulus, see if it works for the application, use it if it does. Simple.


Scientists have no such luck as the best they can do is apply known data in testing and then defining the unknown. That's pretty much the definition of science. It would be nice if scientists could just look up the specs of CV19 and tell the world exactly what to do, what drugs to take, how to act, easy, right, just look on page 49 of the virus manual, table 3.1. Done.

Of course that's not how the real world works when something brand new is generated, there is no book, no table to look up a modulus that will cure us all. Science is all about creating whole new books, not looking at tables.

Both scientists and engineers are valuable members in our society. I think it would be helpful for each to walk a few steps in the shoes of the other.

[island911]

They do, all of the time. Both ways.

scientists need/use their engineering skills to set up experiments.
and
engineers use scientific methods to prove designs.

"engineers simply have to refer to finite data in scores of tables. " -- That's like saying t-shirt designers simply refer to what's been designed before.

[island911]

Today

[pmax]

Here's lockdown capital in comparison with record case counts 5 months in.