Sweden Did It Wrong

[Tobra]

Originally Posted by jamesnmlaw

to calc your chances: # of deaths from virus / # of outcome

# of outcome = # of recovered cases + # of deaths from virus

for the US, as of yesterday, 10.65% chance of dying if you get infected

Your formula is nonsense, and we don't really know any of these numbers with any degree of accuracy.

Originally Posted by G50

One very interesting thing I read about Sweden yesterday is that 79% of their deaths occurred in nursing/convalescent homes.
Not sure why that is.
But given their approach, the deaths outside of nursing homes (which is probably what, 99% of the population) isn’t very high.

Because this kills the old and infirm, like most other diseases.

Originally Posted by livi

If Sweden had been populated by Swedes the statistics would mirror our fellow Nordic countries. Alas it isn´t and now we pay yet another price for our extreme immigration policies. Hybris, hipocrisy, social anxiety, conformism and the apathy of pleasant living have put us on the highway to self destruction as a nation.

If only people could think, rather than emote about people "needlessly dying"

For example:

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

Sweden's economy is in the tank and thousands of people died unnecessarily. Yeah, definitely a success.

It is too soon for it to be possible to know, yet you are certain. Do you realize how foolish the above sounds?

I can help with this, by sharing one of the most intelligent things that can be said.

"I don't know"

[klaus]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

You know if our Governor Charlie Baker (R) were president, the entire country would be stabilized and we'd have a plan for everything including school reopenings. We got hit hard early, Gov. Baker and his admin did a fantastic job managing the crisis, communicating a plan and MA residents did and overall excellent job following the plan. Very proud of my state and admin.

Some numbers:

MA Population - 6.9M
Sweden Population - 10.2M

MA Covid Cases - 111k
Sweden Covid Cases - 74K
(as an aside I think case count is wildly inaccurate, but these are the numbers)

MA Covid Deaths - 8,243
Sweden Covid Deaths - 5,550

Roughly speaking that means 2x the number of people in MA have died as a percentage of the population, and you are proud of MA, yet you say Sweden failed?

I think we are too early to say if Sweden has failed, or was successful. There are too many unknowns. But to say Sweden has failed, and MA is something to be proud of is hard to reconcile with the numbers.

[jyl]

Originally Posted by klaus

Some numbers:

MA Population - 6.9M
Sweden Population - 10.2M

MA Covid Cases - 111k
Sweden Covid Cases - 74K
(as an aside I think case count is wildly inaccurate, but these are the numbers)

MA Covid Deaths - 8,243
Sweden Covid Deaths - 5,550

Roughly speaking that means 2x the number of people in MA have died as a percentage of the population, and you are proud of MA, yet you say Sweden failed?

I think we are too early to say if Sweden has failed, or was successful. There are too many unknowns. But to say Sweden has failed, and MA is something to be proud of is hard to reconcile with the numbers.

Maybe success or failure is relative. By the standards of its neighbors, Sweden failed. By the standards of its neighbors, Massachusetts didn't fail. I mean, would you rather measure against Denmark - or New York . . .

[ckelly78z]

Originally Posted by RSBob

Must respectfully disagree with the melting pot statement. The issue in this country with health and just about every other major issue, is unnecessary politicization.

I do agree about Sweden’s population cooperation as being helpful, but your comments hint at racism or nativism. If that’s not your intent, then that’s fine.

Just an observation of mine that Swedes all seem to row together, while Americans can't agree on the seating in the boat, or the destination.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally Posted by Rawknees'Turbo

That's all fine and dandy, but can that bisch troll Twitter like a biggly boss and can he come up with derogatory nicknames for his adversaries?! And what about his skillz at throwing fuel on already caustic situations; does he revel in societal division?

Charlie Baker (R) has an 84% approval rating for handling the CV outbreak. 84%.

For years he held the most popular governor status in the country, got knocked off last year but will almost certainly reclaim it this year.

Again, 84% of MA residents approve of how he handled the CV crisis. you just don't get better than that.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally Posted by Eric Coffey

Thinking that "math" is conclusive for the "Sweden got it wrong" narrative will keep you in mental chains.

Not really. Simple math and common sense is all you need when comparing Sweden with its neighbors.

Markus reaffirms my point that the Swedish strategy was doomed to fail when he confirmed much of the transmission was due to the recent influx of foreigners and that if the population had remained pure, Sweden would have compared favorably with its neighbors.

The government should have known, especially with vocal anti-immigrant segments within, that immigrants would not behave properly in an open plan resulting in high transmission and death rates.

[Jeff Higgins]

Originally Posted by jyl

Maybe success or failure is relative. By the standards of its neighbors, Sweden failed. By the standards of its neighbors, Massachusetts didn't fail. I mean, would you rather measure against Denmark - or New York . . .

Or maybe we can manipulate what "success" or "failure" look like by being selective in our comparisons. We can select geographically, demographically, politically - whatever we choose. It all depends upon the results we are after.

In this particular case, Shaun is trumpeting the success of his governor and condemning the failure of the Swedes. The raw numbers of a direct comparison, as shown to us by Klaus, tell a far different story. Depending upon what we want those raw numbers to "tell" us, we can add in (or ignore) the contributing factors of our choice.

This is far, far more complicated than those numbers would suggest. I think we all agree on that. That's pretty much all we can honestly say at this point. Anyone touting one or the other as a "success" or as a "failure" is doing no more than displaying their confirmation biases. At this point, we have no way of knowing the outcome had either followed a different model.

[Eric Coffey]

Originally Posted by Jeff Higgins

Or maybe we can manipulate what "success" or "failure" look like by being selective in our comparisons. We can select geographically, demographically, politically - whatever we choose. It all depends upon the results we are after.

In this particular case, Shaun is trumpeting the success of his governor and condemning the failure of the Swedes. The raw numbers of a direct comparison, as shown to us by Klaus, tell a far different story. Depending upon what we want those raw numbers to "tell" us, we can add in (or ignore) the contributing factors of our choice.

This is far, far more complicated than those numbers would suggest. I think we all agree on that. That's pretty much all we can honestly say at this point. Anyone touting one or the other as a "success" or as a "failure" is doing no more than displaying their confirmation biases. At this point, we have no way of knowing the outcome had either followed a different model.

^^^ Zactly...

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally Posted by Eric Coffey

^^^ Zactly...

I see they have good wifi in AZ ICUs.

Open up Excel and do the math.

[brainz01]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

And for those trumpeting Sweden as the correct model, I have 3 words for you. Florida, Texas and Arizona. Remember all those Suecophiles pointing to Florida's great success a few months ago? Yeah. Super successful.

Please lookup the population and covid death rates for Massachusetts, Sweden, Florida, Texas and Arizona and report back. We'll standby.

[Rawknees'Turbo]

I can't believe that COVID doesn't have the good sense to steer clear of TexASS now, considering how godawful hot and humid it is here - a hell hole not fit for human or viral habitation and won't be until the end of November or early December!

[Jeff Higgins]

Originally Posted by Rawknees'Turbo

I can't believe that COVID doesn't have the good sense to steer clear of TexASS now, considering how godawful hot and humid it is here - a hell hole not fit for human or viral habitation and won't be until the end of November or early December!

You have inadvertently raised a good point - were we not told, early on, that these kinds of viruses die out as the weather warms?

[Rawknees'Turbo]

Originally Posted by Jeff Higgins

You have inadvertently raised a good point - were we not told, early on, that these kinds of viruses die out as the weather warms?

Yep, and it looks like that has proven to be hogwash.

[Eric Coffey]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

And for those trumpeting Sweden as the correct model, I have 3 words for you. Florida, Texas and Arizona.

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

Again, 84% of MA residents approve of how he handled the CV crisis. you just don't get better than that.

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

I see they have good wifi in AZ ICUs.

Open up Excel and do the math.

I see folks in MA aren't as smart as they think they are.

Some "easy math" for you:

AZ population: 7,300,000.
AZ COVID-19 cases: 113,000.
AZ COVID-19 deaths: 2048.
Localized CFR = 1.8%

MA population: 6,700,000.
MA COVID-19 cases: 111,000.
MA COVID-19 deaths: 8268.
Localized CFR = 7.4%

[Jeff Higgins]

Originally Posted by Rawknees'Turbo

Yep, and it looks like that has proven to be hogwash.

Hasn't most (all?) of what the "experts" tell us they "know" proven to be as well?

Let's face it - we are just winging it. We have no idea what's going on. No idea how many have it, no idea how early and how quickly it spread, no idea how to protect ourselves, no idea how much longer this will go on, no idea...

Anyone who claims to "know" otherwise is a self aggrandizing fool. Time has proven all of them wrong.

[jyl]

Originally Posted by Rawknees'Turbo

Yep, and it looks like that has proven to be hogwash.

No one told anyone that. At least, no one who was watching the virus spread in Brazil, Singapore, Malaysia, and other places in the height of their summers.

[Rawknees'Turbo]

Originally Posted by Jeff Higgins

Hasn't most (all?) of what the "experts" tell us they "know" proven to be as well?

Let's face it - we are just winging it. We have no idea what's going on. No idea how many have it, no idea how early and how quickly it spread, no idea how to protect ourselves, no idea how much longer this will go on, no idea...

Anyone who claims to "know" otherwise is a self aggrandizing fool. Time has proven all of them wrong.

Totally agree - the whole thing is a rip roaring cluster fuuuk on a grand scale.

[Rawknees'Turbo]

Originally Posted by jyl

No one told anyone that. At least, no one who was watching the virus spread in Brazil, Singapore, Malaysia, and other places in the height of their summers.

The orange guy told the whole world that the heat of spring would send the virus packing; of course when he said that, one would have been wise to conclude that the virus would actually have a tougher time surviving in the dead of winter.

[jyl]

Originally Posted by Jeff Higgins

Hasn't most (all?) of what the "experts" tell us they "know" proven to be as well?

Let's face it - we are just winging it. We have no idea what's going on. No idea how many have it, no idea how early and how quickly it spread, no idea how to protect ourselves, no idea how much longer this will go on, no idea...

Anyone who claims to "know" otherwise is a self aggrandizing fool. Time has proven all of them wrong.

That must be why so many countries, from Korea to Taiwan, New Zealand to Italy, China to Australia, have somehow managed to control their virus epidemics, and now the US is one of the disease pariahs along with Brazil, India, Russia and other places without a fraction of our resources.

Within the US, that must be why Washington, Oregon, and others have managed to hold cases down while Texas, Florida, Arizona are seeing it get out of control like it did in New York.

You don’t have to know everything there is to know about something to take effective actions. We know enough about this virus to know how to more or less control it, sure with crude and costly measures that are way suboptimal, but still work. We just don’t always do what it takes.

I find that engineers are particularly prone to analysis paralysis in this sort of situation. I think that they are used to situations that they understand really well, down to decimal places, where the principles and details have been very well figured out, and they have very good insight and tools. So a situation where we are learning as we go along, dealing with conflicting and incomplete data, don’t know many of the fundamentals of how things work, is very frustrating for them.

[RSBob]

Originally Posted by Jeff Higgins

Or maybe we can manipulate what "success" or "failure" look like by being selective in our comparisons. We can select geographically, demographically, politically - whatever we choose. It all depends upon the results we are after.

In this particular case, Shaun is trumpeting the success of his governor and condemning the failure of the Swedes. The raw numbers of a direct comparison, as shown to us by Klaus, tell a far different story. Depending upon what we want those raw numbers to "tell" us, we can add in (or ignore) the contributing factors of our choice.

This is far, far more complicated than those numbers would suggest. I think we all agree on that. That's pretty much all we can honestly say at this point. Anyone touting one or the other as a "success" or as a "failure" is doing no more than displaying their confirmation biases. At this point, we have no way of knowing the outcome had either followed a different model.

Totally agreed. The purpose of this thread was a counterpoint to the initial equally dubious assertion that Sweden’s approach was a great success. All we really know is that Sweden’s initial appearance of success was a mirage. How they ultimately fair compared to like Scandinavia countries, only time will tell.