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Quote:
Originally Posted by sammyg2 View Post
You could not afford a television that was completely made in the US (every component). It would probably cost about $100k.

Anyone here remember a thing from high school called history? Rumor has it that it tends to repeat itself.
After WWII Japan was trying to recover and develop some manufacturing. They were short of raw materials, so they made little tin toys and stuff, usually very fragile due to being stingy with materials.
Made in Japan was an insult. It meant crap, junk, not worth more than a few pennies.
Later, they got better. Slowly they increased quality, complexity, and now made in Japan means it is veprobably the best and very expensive. After they became a world manufacturing power, they also because a world consumer. Their standard of living increased, their labor cost increased, they became westernized.
In stepped Taiwan, South Korea, etc. They all did the same thing. They started making stuff cheap, and eventually it got better, then it got more expensive.

Now onto China. They made stuff like crap a decade ago. Their quality is getting better. It still has a way to go but it is well on the way.
Now why would anyone expect anything China to turn out any different than any other country?
They have more natural resources, they have more people, so it's on a grander scale but the same thing will happen. In another 10 years stuff made in China will be top quality, we will be more than happy to buy it if we can afford it, but we will be b!tching about cheap crap made in Turkey and Africa.

See, we drive this trend. It is our fault. we as consumers want affordable stuff. we will buy it if the price is low enough, but if it is really high we will not. Sure a few of us might say that we would pay a premium for one thing or another, but on average no one wants to pay alot for anything. Business responds to our wants. They give us what we ask for.
We want cheap, they give us cheap. It's always been that way.

I'd also say that most of us are victims of the sensationalistic media. They decided recently to go after "made in China". It was a way to get people fired up, and after all that is how they stay in business.
"China toys contain lead which kills our kids". Bah.
What they don't tell you is that the paint on those toys contain about .05% lead oxide. Big freaking deal. That's barely over the very conservative limit. They also don't tell you that my generation played with toys that contained 100 times more lead than those toys being recalled now. Big freaking deal. It is BS.
Don't let them control your minds.
Very True ! The US has made things so well we don't need to buy them again. China Made tools need to be purchased repeatedly. I can't tolerate crappy product I will go with out before I buy some of the stuff harbor fright offers.

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Old 01-02-2008, 02:23 PM
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http://www.mongrelmedia.com/films/ManufacturedLandscapes.html

Might give a little perspective on what China is dealing with internally and how the external world fits into it.
Old 01-02-2008, 02:29 PM
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http://www.mongrelmedia.com/films/ManufacturedLandscapes.html

Might give a little perspective on what China is dealing with internally and how the external world fits into it.
Mr Madison Avenue here...
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Old 01-02-2008, 02:43 PM
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Originally Posted by jyl View Post
The China issue is very complicated and tricky. China is a rival and a threat to us (the USA), also a partner and a benefit for us.

Just a couple things that are important, when thinking about this -

China faces huge economic, social, resource, and environmental challenges to lift itself from a poor country to a rich one. Demographics mean it has a fairly short time window to do this, before the population ages too far. If China doesn't become a high-tech, rich country in about 3 decades, it will be a disaster as the average age climbs past 50 and retirees far outnumber workers. For more on the demographic issue, see http://www.oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php?aid=40

China has a longer history than almost any other civilization/culture, but for much of that history it was torn by civil war, a patchwork of warring fiefs, invaded by neighbors, or otherwise unstable. The transitions between dynasties was not orderly, it was usually accomplished by assassination, war, treachery, and revolt. Any central government in China knows the long precedent for Chinese central governments to be violently brought down.

China is rather poor in natural resources, relative to its population and growth. The country is no longer self-sufficient in oil or metals, and the scale of its needs is large compared to the global supply of these things.

So you have a large country, under tremendous internal pressure to industrialize and develop, increasingly dependent on external resources to grow, a long history of past regimes that have been violently ended, and a limited amount of time before it becomes demographically weakened.

This might be a starting point for thinking about how the US should deal with China. We ultimately dealt with the USSR by escalating Cold War spending until they went bankrupt - at least, they were bankrupt until oil prices started rising. Is that a feasible approach to China? Is it the best approach? What are the other choices? Is there a win-win outcome, or only a win-lose outcome?

Basically, I think it would be interesting to step back and coldly think about our China options, in a strategic way.

Wailing on about shoddy tools and dirty fish is entertaining but I'm not convinced it gets you very far.
What fking arrogant Reaganistic sludge this is...The USA beat the Soviet Union... PLEEZE What U fail to recognize is that the Soviet system was so inefficient and lacked any form of incentives that it was doomed to fail from its own weight without any help from the USA. The USA was either sold on the big bad soviets by its Military Industrial complex or they were just to stupid and believed Mr K's rhetoric of burying us while thumping his shoe on the table. What everyone failed to see was that his shoe fell apart while he was doing it. Talk about a Houdini act.

I tend to go with stupid and for a very simple reason we bleived Sadam and his blustering that he head WMDs
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Old 01-02-2008, 02:50 PM
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Not getting sidetracked on the USSR, let's stick to the point which is China.

Did I correctly describe the path China is trying to follow, and the situation that is forcing it down that path? Or does China have other paths in mind - e.g. world conquest as Jeff fears?

What are the possible responses of the USA to China's desired path? Should we try to block it? Facilitate it? Re-direct it?

Would those responses be successful? How would they fit with the interests of the USA? What pressures is the USA under, and what path(s) do they compel us to take?

Of course there are other players. There are Europe, the USSR, the oil producing regions, and perhaps Japan.
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Old 01-02-2008, 04:07 PM
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Originally Posted by jyl View Post
Not getting sidetracked on the USSR, let's stick to the point which is China.

Did I correctly describe the path China is trying to follow, and the situation that is forcing it down that path? Or does China have other paths in mind - e.g. world conquest as Jeff fears?

What are the possible responses of the USA to China's desired path? Should we try to block it? Facilitate it? Re-direct it?

Would those responses be successful? How would they fit with the interests of the USA? What pressures is the USA under, and what path(s) do they compel us to take?

Of course there are other players. There are Europe, the USSR, the oil producing regions, and perhaps Japan.

Well make up your frickin mind..your just like a woman....first you say lets not get sidtracked and before that even gets acknowledged you go right back and mention it again...what kind of bait and switch tactics are these anyway?

Lets figure out what you want to discuss before we go any further and get more confuzed.
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Old 01-02-2008, 04:14 PM
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Good point Tabs. That's another natural resource that the Chinese are short on -- women! As jyl mentions, China's demographics are going to go upside down in a few years. If this were to happen gradually, that would be one thing. But a combination of 1 child families and the dearth of women is most likely going to mean that it's going to happen quickly. Given rampant self insurance in that country (or to put it differently, sons are insurance), there is going to be a sudden increase in medical costs at the same time when there will be a decrease in productive employees. The result I suspect will be a sharp increase in labor rates and a drop in productivity. Neither bodes will for the mid-term performance of their economy.
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Old 01-02-2008, 04:24 PM
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The USA is in an interesting position. It is already a wealthy nation, but is demographically "younger" than other wealthy nations/regions like Japan and the EU. Meaning that our population is growing, not static/declining, and relatively younger, 37 y/o. The USA has substantial natural resources relative to its consumption, with the major exception of oil. We do have a sizeable national debt and ongoing deficit to manage. Our political system has been quite stable, since the Civil War anyway. We also have the pre-eminent military force.

It feels to me that the USA has various options, I don't think we are forced into only one choice.
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Old 01-02-2008, 04:28 PM
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You can tell the difference between a sidenote (USSR) and the main point (China). If you don't want to play, then don't.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tabs View Post
Well make up your frickin mind..your just like a woman....first you say lets not get sidtracked and before that even gets acknowledged you go right back and mention it again...what kind of bait and switch tactics are these anyway?

Lets figure out what you want to discuss before we go any further and get more confuzed.
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Old 01-02-2008, 04:30 PM
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I used to think that China will soon be faced with the burden of maintaining a middle class, but it likely won't happen. They have wave after wave/an endless supply of peasants to pull from. If the current crop gets uppity they'll just replace them with the next crop. The US and other developed countries did not have this "luxury" hence the formation of a middle class. The demands of our masses had to be met as we would have literally ran out of labor, this will not happen there(for several lifetimes anyway).
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Old 01-02-2008, 04:36 PM
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I agree. I think China has to run as fast as it can, because its demographic clock is counting down. Unless it can change that demographic future, it will be in Japan's situation in a few decades. Don't know if mandating larger families, shortening life expectancy, or increasing immigration are realistic options. Japan got old, but it got rich first. China needs to get rich, quickly.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jluetjen View Post
Good point Tabs. That's another natural resource that the Chinese are short on -- women! As jyl mentions, China's demographics are going to go upside down in a few years. If this were to happen gradually, that would be one thing. But a combination of 1 child families and the dearth of women is most likely going to mean that it's going to happen quickly. Given rampant self insurance in that country (or to put it differently, sons are insurance), there is going to be a sudden increase in medical costs at the same time when there will be a decrease in productive employees. The result I suspect will be a sharp increase in labor rates and a drop in productivity. Neither bodes will for the mid-term performance of their economy.
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Old 01-02-2008, 04:38 PM
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Originally Posted by jyl View Post
The USA is in an interesting position. It is already a wealthy nation, but is demographically "younger" than other wealthy nations/regions like Japan and the EU. Meaning that our population is growing, not static/declining, and relatively younger, 37 y/o. The USA has substantial natural resources relative to its consumption, with the major exception of oil. We do have a sizeable national debt and ongoing deficit to manage. Our political system has been quite stable, since the Civil War anyway. We also have the pre-eminent military force.

It feels to me that the USA has various options, I don't think we are forced into only one choice.
AHHH YES..we in the USA are younger, we have Mexicans and their myriads of children.... all to draw upon their sophisticated intellectual prowness. Why some of them even know about bank accounts what a bright futher for the USof A...they will make.
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Old 01-02-2008, 05:47 PM
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Old 01-02-2008, 05:49 PM
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You can tell the difference between a sidenote (USSR) and the main point (China). If you don't want to play, then don't.
Well will you make up your mind, first its China you want to talk about, then the USSR, then back to China then back to the USSR and now the USA...Do U have ADD or sumthin...geez your beginin to sound like Lubby on speed.

So stop yur changing the subject all the time. Lets just settle down and talk about one thing..Is it gong to be the USA, China or Russia?
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Old 01-02-2008, 05:51 PM
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Why is it the race to the top includes a race to the bottom?

My mother-in-law always buys cheap Chinese crap by the sackfull to give to our kids. She usually brings a 30 Gallon garbage bag of this junk. As soon as she leaves most of the stuff goes right into the trash. I have told her not to bother bringing this crap over but she just keeps on doing it.

There have been alot of good points made here.

Speedy
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Old 01-02-2008, 06:41 PM
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Not as ADD as tabs on a mild day . . .

I thought we were talking about what is the USA's best response to China?

So, what path(s) is China on? How should the USA respond, considering the path(s) that the USA wants to be on?

Quote:
Originally Posted by tabs View Post
Well will you make up your mind, first its China you want to talk about, then the USSR, then back to China then back to the USSR and now the USA...Do U have ADD or sumthin...geez your beginin to sound like Lubby on speed.

So stop yur changing the subject all the time. Lets just settle down and talk about one thing..Is it gong to be the USA, China or Russia?
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Old 01-02-2008, 07:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Wayne at Pelican Parts View Post
The comments from other posters about how their Apple equipment had failed quite rapidly (iPods in particular) made me think that you don't automatically get better quality just because you paid more.

-Wayne
The reason people are paying more for those type of products is because they're considered to be "LET" (Leading Edge Technology). Someone comes out with a gadget that nobody else produces a comparable device (iphone is a good example) the companies charge more. When the “newness” of the product wears off or someone comes out with a better gadget, then they’ll drop the price.

I have seen telecom companies sell their PBX type box for several hundred dollars because nobody else has a PBX box that handles the workload, but they spec parts that I would call "toy grade" components just to save a .10 to .15 cents instead of using something that has better quality (i.e. industrial and/or automotive grade, military grade in some extreme cases). I think the same can be said for iPod and other LET type products...........They have a great product but companies want to maximize profit and they decide to spec in cheap parts instead of making them more reliable.

How many of us have a “beverage”refrigerator in our garage that is over 20 years old (I’ve seen some from the late 50’s)? That is because the companies made a solid product back then, but now the quality is DOWN because companies are more interested in squeezing a few more pennies out of a product instead of making the product more reliable………..It’s the new American way!

I would ramble on about how Wal-Mart has played a major part in Chinese invasion, but that is a whole other ball game.
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Old 01-02-2008, 07:26 PM
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Originally Posted by tabs View Post
AHHH YES..we in the USA are younger, we have Mexicans and their myriads of children.... all to draw upon their sophisticated intellectual prowness. Why some of them even know about bank accounts what a bright futher for the USof A...they will make.
True, the US population continues to grow and remain fairly young, in large part due to immigration.

To me, that is a demographic asset - and can be a positive, or not, depending on whether the USA exploits the asset or squanders it.

Suppose native-born AND immigrant kids in the USA were really well educated, effectively assimilated, and grew up to become engineers, scientists, craftsmen, skilled labor, entrepreneurs, and so on. People who are economically productive and add to GDP. Do you care if they are Hispanic, Caucasian, Asian, whatever? If someone starts (for example) a biotech company and creates a bunch of high-paying high-skill jobs in the USA, I don't care if his name is Juan or Deepak, Zhong or Peter. And I don't care if his family came from Mexico or India, China or Iowa.

US society is quite open, we absorb a lot of immigrants, and that is a strength. (This isn't a comment about illegal immigration, I don't think that is a good way to assimilate people.)
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Old 01-02-2008, 07:33 PM
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Global Free TradeTM rocks! We export jobs and technology and import all our crap from China and Mexico.
Yep, "Globalization" and "Deregulation" are the two biggest farces foisted on the American public.

And the dipdh!t "experts" and most economists are insisting that it will not harm our nation. Idiots are in control!
Old 01-02-2008, 07:42 PM
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Not as ADD as tabs on a mild day . . .

I thought we were talking about what is the USA's best response to China?

So, what path(s) is China on? How should the USA respond, considering the path(s) that the USA wants to be on?

Be creative and think of something new to counter me with,use your imagination boy...

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Old 01-02-2008, 11:23 PM
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