The recession is over

[RWebb]

“The recession is over,” Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, said before the decision. “June was the last month of contraction in the U.S. economy; we think July is already a month of production growth.”



of course, he is not measuring from the standpoint some poor guy who is out of a job...

[flatbutt]

do they ever?

[Sunroof]

.................anyways jobs are always the last to show up, but according to the fed its brighter news all around. Holiday sales this year will tell the real story of where we are going. All of our salaries here were cut 10% this week. It sucks big time but hopefully things will begin to improve.

[Christien]

I read something a while ago that said somewhere around 70% of the US economy is based on consumer spending. Just think about that for a second. That's staggering. So if consumer confidence fails, 3/4 of the economy tanks. Back in the winter every time another bad news story made headlines, I cringed, because I knew it was another slam at consumer confidence. So, IMO, any good news is fantastic news, even if it's a complete stretch of the truth. Anything that bolsters consumer confidence is huge.

[jyl]

Issues now are how strong/weak the recovery is, which industries/sectors will benefit the most, and whether a second recession quickly follows this one (the "double-dip" or "W" scenario).

[74-911]

Originally Posted by RWebb

of course, he is not measuring from the standpoint some poor guy who is out of a job...

I just wonder how many of those jobs are permanently gone? The companies /businesses realize they really didn't need a lot of those employees they laid off.

How many of those pay-cuts will turn out to be permanent? Can millions of our fellow citizens look forward to a permanently lowered standard of living ?

[Porsche-O-Phile]

Originally Posted by Christien

I read something a while ago that said somewhere around 70% of the US economy is based on consumer spending. Just think about that for a second. That's staggering. So if consumer confidence fails, 3/4 of the economy tanks. Back in the winter every time another bad news story made headlines, I cringed, because I knew it was another slam at consumer confidence. So, IMO, any good news is fantastic news, even if it's a complete stretch of the truth. Anything that bolsters consumer confidence is huge.

You nailed one of the BIGGEST gorillas in the room that nobody is talking about. There's not much "real" stuff propping up our economy anymore, now that we've successfully "outsourced" (I truly hate that euphemism) all of our manufacturing to China. All we have left is service-type activity which is largely "fluff", largely propped up by governmental regulation and convention - not based in it producing any real value.

In order to REALLY fix our economy permanently - in order to really ensure that we have permanent and sustainable growth - we need to bring back more manufacturing here and produce our own goods. Better still, we need to actually export what we can (agriculture comes to mind).

I blame being undercut by Asia (which is the direct result of our own stupid and short-sighted choices, driven by nothing other than a desire for cheaper, cheaper, cheaper) as the real core "disease" that's rotting our economy from the inside out.

We're doing a wonderful job trying to treat symptoms, but the underlying disease will still remain long after "stimulus" and other prop-ups are gone. And we'll be right back here. Mark my words.

A non-manufacturing economy is unsustainable - pure and simple. You need to produce goods of value (or services of value) to last. Most of what we produce is services, and they don't have much (if any) intrinsic value outside the context of our own particular society, legal system and set of governmental regulatory controls.

[RWebb]

So, which industries/sectors will benefit the most??

My bets:
- technology
- health care info.

no idea re valuations

[Porsche-O-Phile]

I predict security/loss prevention/law enforcement will do pretty well, as will tax collection. Healthcare will do well as the population demographic shifts - assuming it's not nationalized (and this is a very real possibility). If it is, I think healthcare implodes and drags a very large part of the economy down with it and we DEFINITELY get another recession - or worse.

I'd love to see a resurgence of American manufacturing and industrial prowess - including emphasis on trades and trade education in our schools. However, people have retarded attention spans and will be right back to buying useless fad electronic crap from China within a few months. They'll have completely missed the "point" of this recession.

Real estate, construction, financials and durable goods are going to be in the toilet for a long time.

I do think transportation/travel/tourism might see an uptick (people thinking "go now while we can" in wake of an era of "staycations" or "nocations").

[Leland Pate]

We've successfully dismantled the incredible industrial strength this nation once had and sent it abroad. We are now coasting and spending the wealth created by generations gone by. Our economy is based off of flaky accounting practices, exotic banking, and services related crap bought with foreign money. We have no production, no savings, and no reason to even remotely think this is over.

[red-beard]

Cue Obama claiming that the Simulus, of which only 3% had been spent by June 1st, fixed the resession.

[DavidB911]

Where is this change we were promised about a year ago?? I got the impression our current president would have us all making 100k by this point.

[Rick V]

over? really? tell that to my already hurting wallet, and then add the 10% pay cut I took last month, than add the increase in the minimum wage, and I say nowhere close to over. All the government is doing is flooding the market with money. The more there is out there, the less it is worth. I'm a dumb a$$ and even I know that much.

[pwd72s]

All together now..."happy times are here again."

[dd74]

Now and then I hear some very forward-thinking (forward to the tune of nearly insane) economist say, "Steel. We should produce steel again." Why? Because we can and should, and petrol prices will rise, which will make it harder for Asia to ship its steel to countries outside its region.

Steel is one industry. The automotive industry -- maybe. Textiles: the best clothing I've ever had was American made.

But honestly, it's a pipe dream without a huge pro-American campaign.

[ruf-porsche]

Originally Posted by RWebb

“The recession is over,” Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, said before the decision. “June was the last month of contraction in the U.S. economy; we think July is already a month of production growth.”



of course, he is not measuring from the standpoint some poor guy who is out of a job...

Yep the recession is over for me. I'm back to my six figure salary and we are living it up again. Woooo Hooooo
Gotta love this country.

[dd74]

Originally Posted by ruf-porsche

Yep the recession is over for me. I'm back to my six figure salary and we are living it up again. Woooo Hooooo
Gotta love this country.

Seriously? Can I borrow $50K?

[legion]

Is Randy an economist this week?

[Crowbob]

Which sector will benefit?

Government.

[bell]

Originally Posted by dd74

Seriously? Can I borrow $50K?

****......I'd settle for 5k......I've been getting my ass handed to me this whole year, wife and I are down 50k this year, doesn't seem like much until you realize before when we were "comfortable" we were binging in 80k combined.
glad florida doesn't have any cliffs.......