Aothernother Fine Mess Waye Has Gotten Himself Into

[trader220]

What was the purpose of the hindsight? What possible benefit could come from it?

The super bowl was an off the cuff comment about Monday Morning QB's... Insert the game of your choice it does not matter.

What’s with all the foul language?

The term "involved" also needs a qualifier.... what some people think is "involved" others would consider a cursory retail dabble in the markets

[tabs]

Originally Posted by trader220

What was the purpose of the hindsight? What possible benefit could come from it?

The super bowl was an off the cuff comment about Monday Morning QB's... Insert the game of your choice it does not matter.

What’s with all the foul language?

The term "involved" also needs a qualifier.... what some people think is "involved" others would consider a cursory retail dabble in the markets

1. Pettiness..I told ya so....

2. Yeah I realize that it was somthing you pulled out of the air, but I still called it...and it was not a flip of the coin or guess.

3. Foul language is sometimes a tool to be used...to sumtimes convey ones impatience...also it is a less formal way of addressing an issue..

4. Yeah well my cursory dabble involves a bit more than a coupla bux thrown on a lark...it constitiutes where I get my money to pay the bills...as in from my investments...If anything Wayne is the cursory retail dabbler...

[Vintage Racer]

Originally Posted by tabs

On Friday morning I was listening to a Mr Tepper of the Appaloosa Group who has 12.4B under management...and has a history of making 20% + ROI...He is Bullish for 2 reasons...The economy will get better on its own OR the Fed will institute QE2..which in affect is called printing money...Either way that liquidity has to go somewhere...and that somewhere is the Stock Market..

David Tepper of Appaloosa Management was on CNBC's Squawk Box last Friday morning. He was somewhat bullish on stocks, and he did also comment that bonds were problematic at this point in the credit cycle.

Why do you capitalize Bullish, Or, and Stock Market?....Then run period's together between sentences....?

Please tell us where the market will be at the end of 2010 and in one year from today based on your work with "trading ranges" and other research.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Vintage Racer

David Tepper of Appaloosa Management was on CNBC's Squawk Box last Friday morning. He was somewhat bullish on stocks, and he did also comment that bonds were problematic at this point in the credit cycle.

Why do you capitalize Bullish, Or, and Stock Market?....Then run period's together between sentences....?

Please tell us where the market will be at the end of 2010 and in one year from today based on your work with "trading ranges" and other research.

Are you making fun of my disability...I AM A VICTIM OF THE CA EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM...It is a miracle that I am not a Liberal and still retain some, enough brain cells to at least make a coherent repsonse...well at least some of the time...

Tepper made two points about the direction of the stock market going forward.

1. If the economy gets better on its own the the marekt will go higher

2. If the economy flounders the Fed will institute QE2 everything will go higher in price..

So no matter which end of the equation one looks at it the stock market is a no lose proposition from his point of view.


If the Democrats win in November...get out your old Doors Album and put on repeat their song "THE END"

If the Republicans win..well the market will go higher... To be somwhat conservative in prognosticating one would tend to think it will at least revistit the April highs on the SP500..1250 or so.

The cavet here absolutely has to be baring any major catstrophy that should occur in the world...that would be a game changer...

Going forward...modestly higher for next year...

[trader220]

Originally Posted by tabs

1. Pettiness

2. Yeah I realize that it was somthing you pulled out of the air, but I still called it...and it was not a flip of the coin or guess.

3. Foul language is sometimes a tool to be used...to sumtimes convey ones impatience...also it is a less formal way of addressing an issue..

4. Yeah well my cursory dabble involves a bit more than a coupla bux thrown on a lark...it constitiutes where I get my money to pay the bills...as in from my investments...If anything Wayne is the cursory retail dabbler...

1. I could not agree more, especially after some of the PM's people have sent me about threads here in off topic based on the dialog between you and me in this one. Oh, and a thanks to those who sent them to me.

2. You could say you called any contest you like, its meaningless as to the issue.

3. I don’t see foul language so much as a "tool” but more of a "crutch" or a "tell". Thats just my personal opinion based on where I get my values. I dont expect everyone to share them nor do I impose them on anyone else.

4. It’s the internet…no one here knows for sure where anyone else gets their money from or how much they have. Unless we’re going to open our books to each other, it is not of any concern to me who claims they have a more or less than anyone else or how they claim they got it. Note, that I don’t generally get involved with discussing, specific issues about money, wealth or material goods on a message board. Again, I fail to see the point and I assume everyone on the internet is rich, smart and good looking.

Incidentally, why did you assume I was referring directly to you when I mentioned “cursory retail dabbler”?
I don’t need to defend Wayne nor am I specifically trying to but what was the point in taking a shot at him like that? He and his company provide this fantastic board for all of us and quite frankly, based on his personal inventory of fairly rare and exotic Porsche’s it could be said he’s pretty well off.

[RWebb]

I am starting a betting pool on how long Blabs will blather on it this thread - this particular thread, not in a similar vein on other threads.

If you want in, send a $5 bill via paper mail to me at Faulty Towers, 666th Floor, Nimrod, Oregon

paper mail only please -- don't worry -- there is plenty of time for it to get here.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by trader220

1. I could not agree more, especially after some of the PM's people have sent me about threads here in off topic based on the dialog between you and me in this one. Oh, and a thanks to those who sent them to me.

2. You could say you called any contest you like, its meaningless as to the issue.

3. I don’t see foul language so much as a "tool” but more of a "crutch" or a "tell". Thats just my personal opinion based on where I get my values. I dont expect everyone to share them nor do I impose them on anyone else.

4. It’s the internet…no one here knows for sure where anyone else gets their money from or how much they have. Unless we’re going to open our books to each other, it is not of any concern to me who claims they have a more or less than anyone else or how they claim they got it. Note, that I don’t generally get involved with discussing, specific issues about money, wealth or material goods on a message board. Again, I fail to see the point and I assume everyone on the internet is rich, smart and good looking.

Incidentally, why did you assume I was referring directly to you when I mentioned “cursory retail dabbler”?
I don’t need to defend Wayne nor am I specifically trying to but what was the point in taking a shot at him like that? He and his company provide this fantastic board for all of us and quite frankly, based on his personal inventory of fairly rare and exotic Porsche’s it could be said he’s pretty well off.

Your a cliche

[jyl]

I haven't read this whole thread, and just glancing at it suggests you all may have veered a bit off-subject anyway, but just thought I'd throw this in here.

You probably recognize who Paulson is.

John Paulson: Sell Bonds; Buy Stocks; Double Digit Inflation Coming
By ROBERT LENZNER
It could be time to sell your low-yielding bonds and replace them with higher-yielding common stocks.
Multibillionaire hedge fund operator John Paulson, the investment genius who made a killing going short subprime mortgages a few years ago, told a standing room only crowd at New York’s University Club that double-digit inflation is about to rear its ugly head by 2012, killing the bond market, and restoring strength to equities and gold.
Paulson’s warning to sell U.S. government bonds is one of the latest signs that the most successful investors of this generation believe the run up in bonds is over. Paulson especially underscored the attraction of equities with earnings yields of 7%-8% compared to the 2.6% pittance available on 10-year Treasuries.
Paulson listed his favorite blue-chip stocks; JNJ (Johnson& Johnson) at a 3.8% yield; KO(Coca Cola);PFE, 4% yield., as well as C (Citigroup), BAC (BankofAmerica) and STI (Suntrust Banks) and RF (Regions Financial).
Paulson is a pro at buying the distressed bonds of bankrupt companies, and then converting the debt to equity in reorganization and benefiting from the potential run up. He mentioned one of his greatest plays — K-Mart, which emerged from bankruptcy at $10 a share and then skyrocketed to $190 a share.
His crystal ball is for 2% GDP growth for 2011 and 2012 and he warns that the Fed’s promise of quantitative easing should contribute to double-digit inflation over the next few years.
As this is the best time in 50 years to buy homes, Paulson advised his listeners, crowded into 3 separate dining rooms, to issue 30 year mortgages to buy a home as “your debt and interest payments get locked in at record lows, while the price of your home will rise.”
“If you don’t own a home buy one,” Paulson recommended; ” if you own one home, buy another one, and if you own two homes buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy a home.”

For very short-term considerations, do note the market has November elections and mutual fund year-end coming up, at the tail end of a year in which many hedge fund and mutual fund managers are running out of time to generate performance.

[Vintage Racer]

Originally Posted by tabs

Tepper made two points about the direction of the stock market going forward.

Yes, he did make those points.

CNBC interviews many pundits every day. The hedge fund guys may offer an opinion and then trade against you after their opinion is priced into the market. In addition, they are not going to send you an email when the market begins to go against their current recommendations.

Originally Posted by tabs

So no matter which end of the equation one looks at it the stock market is a no lose proposition from his point of view.

Positively no.

You are ignoring systematic and unsystematic risk. You can lower unsystematic risk by diversification and proper asset allocation.

Systematic risk is always around (watch your back). Market risk (one example) consists of tax consequences, war (or a terror attack), investor preferences, the "flash day crash" of May 6th., etc.

The Fed may fail in their plan to buy CDO's and government paper. It's the old saying "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent". (John Maynard Keynes).

Going forward...modestly higher for next year...

I'll mark you down for 5%-8% in one year.

I do not make predictions about the direction of the stock or bond market in any given year. History has shown that to be a futile exercise.

[trader220]

Originally Posted by Vintage Racer

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent". (John Maynard Keynes).



I do not make predictions about the direction of the stock or bond market in any given year. History has shown that to be a futile exercise.

BINGO on both of those.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Vintage Racer

Yes, he did make those points.

CNBC interviews many pundits every day. The hedge fund guys may offer an opinion and then trade against you after their opinion is priced into the market. In addition, they are not going to send you an email when the market begins to go against their current recommendations.


Positively no.

You are ignoring systematic and unsystematic risk. You can lower unsystematic risk by diversification and proper asset allocation.

Systematic risk is always around (watch your back). Market risk (one example) consists of tax consequences, war (or a terror attack), investor preferences, the "flash day crash" of May 6th., etc.

The Fed may fail in their plan to buy CDO's and government paper. It's the old saying "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent". (John Maynard Keynes).


I'll mark you down for 5%-8% in one year.

I do not make predictions about the direction of the stock or bond market in any given year. History has shown that to be a futile exercise.

The cavet here absolutely has to be baring any major catastrophe that should occur in the world...that would be a game changer...

How did U miss this in my Post? This does cover Systemic risk does it NOT? Further do I have to spell everything out..of course a portfolio needs diversification to help hedge against non systemic risk..that is such a no brain er that I don't even mention it...Whew...A portfolio should ideally have between 16 and 23 stocks to hedge against risk either more or less increases risk and that should be spread over multiple sectors of the market.

About 15 years ago I stopped listening to what any Financial Pundits/MM's were touting as the flavor of the day..as in a paticular stock position...However I do listen to what SOME of them say with regards to market direction and economic conditions. But as with any opinion the reasoning is more important than the opinion itself.

I was very hesitant to make a one year prediction..."MODEST" is about the best noncommital BS word I could come up with...

I see stagflation for the US economy..1% to 2% growth for the fore seeable future ..which creates NO NEW JOBS as 3% is the portal for job creation. This in reality means that with an increasing population the unemployment percentage will actually increase over time.

Further the National Debt itself is going to increasingily put a DRAG ON THE ECONOMY..At some point the Bond Vigilatantes are going to step in and send a letter to Uncle Sam saying that he has exceeded his his credit limit and his interest rates have just been increased to 19.99%. We all know what this will doto the economy..

Taxes will have to be increased to cover the deficits or risk that 19.99% interest rate. Which will have those unintended consequences of slowing the economy. The USA has unfortunatily reached the point where tax cuts are not only not possible BUT WON"T WORK TO STIMULATE THE ECONOMY. The reason is that the deficits and debt will continue to climb and put an increasing drag on the economy. CATCH 22

As the FED starts QE2 which is a monetarization of the currency the value of the USD will continue to decline. This will make foreign imports that much more expensive and at some point will make mfg in the USA competitive once again. However by the time that occurs THERE WILL BE NO MORE AMERICAN MIDDLE CLASS for all intents and purposes. So hyperinflation is in the cards and this will in essence gut America.

So the long and short of it is........It does not matter who gets elected in the fall...the ship is inextricably headed for the Berg...I f the Republicans get in and hold true to the ideals of the Tea party it is possible to still miss the Berg by the narrrowest of margins, but it is far too late for the deck chairs not to be rearranged...

[tabs]

Keynes was essentailly wrong in his premise..about the market STAYING irrational for a protracted period..for this presumes that its normal state is rationality.

The Stock Market is what one might say as being organized chaos...

[Vintage Racer]

Originally Posted by trader220

BINGO on both of those.

Trader,
I knew you were in the business. I own an independent RIA money management LLC.

We have days of extreme satisfaction followed later when you wake up every night in a cold sweat and can't sleep.

This is one tough market today. It's the worst one in decades. Pundits keep telling me that the market is under valued since price/earning, price/free cash flow, and price/book is 20% cheaper than historical values. I keep telling them them those multiples can contract even further when investor preferences make it do so. History says the down-side risk is another -20% (or more).

I believe in principled realism; "A return of principle is far more important than a return from principle". Aka, you can live another day when you keep your assets rather than risk them for some unqualified risky bet.

Just ask Drexel Burnham, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac (to name a few).

[trader220]

Vintage,
I can appreciate where you are coming from. It took me the better part of ten years to really remove a great deal of emotion from the day to day swings. In the 1980’s and 1990’s I traded currency options and basically my week started at 3pm east coast time Sunday and ended Friday evening at 5pm.
After the currency options and another dozen years or so in the US equities markets, I sold out to my partners.
There is no one exact answer to anything and the number of issues in a diversified portfolio is different for all sorts of people. One thing remains constant any return over the risk free rate has sweat in it, anyone who says otherwise or has a “system” that says otherwise wont be around all that long.

[trader220]

Originally Posted by tabs

Keynes was essentailly wrong in his premise..about the market STAYING irrational for a protracted period..for this presumes that its normal state is rationality.

The Stock Market is what one might say as being organized chaos...

Clearly according to you everyone but you is wrong LOL

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Vintage Racer

Trader,
I knew you were in the business. I own an independent RIA money management LLC.

We have days of extreme satisfaction followed later when you wake up every night in a cold sweat and can't sleep.

This is one tough market today. It's the worst one in decades. Pundits keep telling me that the market is under valued since price/earning, price/free cash flow, and price/book is 20% cheaper than historical values. I keep telling them them those multiples can contract even further when investor preferences make it do so. History says the down-side risk is another -20% (or more).

I believe in principled realism; "A return of principle is far more important than a return from principle". Aka, you can live another day when you keep your assets rather than risk them for some unqualified risky bet.

Just ask Drexel Burnham, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac (to name a few).

So if your rationale is to preserve capital what did you move your assets into..US Treasuries? as in the ON THE BEACH STRATEDGY. Move them into GOLD?

Exactly what kind of event would it take to move the Market DOWN 20%??? Would this be gradual or quick?

If an event or series of events takes place exactly how would OTHER ASSET CLASSES FARE? The FED is currently embarking on QE2 which as a policy it is known as "PUSHING ON A STRING" Are we going to ZERO PERCENT on the 10 yr Bond?


What I am really trying to get at here is if the Market should move down by 20% as a result of some event or situations...the OTHER ASSSET classes such as CASH and its equivalents , BONDS and RE are going to adversely affected as well.

THERE IS NO SAFETY ANYWHERE...EVERYTHING IS AT RISK, EVERYTHING IS ON A KNIFES EDGE, IT WILL ALL BE WORTHLESS.

EXCEPT FOR GOLD and the precious metals.

Some people will proclaim well I will move my money into the foreign markets...Thats a bright move as how does one think they will stand up to the suction of the by far largest economy in the world with its tentacles everywhere and reserve currency status sinking beneath the waves...in other words the world economy would be dragged down by a failure of the USA..

[tabs]

Originally Posted by trader220

Vintage,
I can appreciate where you are coming from. It took me the better part of ten years to really remove a great deal of emotion from the day to day swings. In the 1980’s and 1990’s I traded currency options and basically my week started at 3pm east coast time Sunday and ended Friday evening at 5pm.
After the currency options and another dozen years or so in the US equities markets, I sold out to my partners.
There is no one exact answer to anything and the number of issues in a diversified portfolio is different for all sorts of people. One thing remains constant any return over the risk free rate has sweat in it, anyone who says otherwise or has a “system” that says otherwise wont be around all that long.

HERE IS WHERE YOU ARE WRONG..THERE NEVER HAS NOR WILL THERE EVER BE A RISK FREE RATE...

There is illusion of being risk free...and that has been called the US Treasury and the USD...at least since the end of WW2..why has this been so, the risk was minimal for a very long time.

Let us use the word COMPLACENCY...that the USD and US T BIll were risk free...and that led to ignoring its gradual increase in risk that has taken place over the last 40 years.

This compalcency was broken the day GW Bush stepped out and said "WE are in a crisis." That was the day the bubble broke.

Further the day or series of days that the Obama bubble broke was in his handliing of the Gulf Spill. Until then the American people by and large were giving him the benefit of the doubt about his competency and the veracity of his vision.

[trader220]

Originally Posted by trader220

Clearly according to you everyone but you is wrong LOL

I guess I'll just keep reposting this

[tabs]

Originally Posted by trader220

Clearly according to you everyone but you is wrong LOL

Well against my own better judgement...I was wrong in giving you a one year prediction as to where the market was headed..

NO I make lots of mistakes...but what I have is clarity...I am CHRYSTAL.. I can cut the line razor fine Baby..I can give you definition I can tell you why things work the way that they do...I GIVE YOU REASON...EXPLAINATION.

Most peoples thinking is muddled, muddy and myopic...

I have lived with the Financial markets for so long I have gotten to know its habits, if not all the rationales. I can generally tell what the markets wants to do..since March of 09 it wants to go up..

I do view the Market as being organic and thus not a rational entity..for if it were all a numbers and stat model game why everyone would be a millionaire.

I view the market as being organized chaos..and there is only the illusion rationality.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by trader220

I guess I'll just keep reposting this

The only time there is a RISK FREE RATE...is when your DEAD...