$4.00 gas by spring?

[tabs]

Originally Posted by monoflo

My take is everyone has a bit of the reason the price is up.

Here in the Peoples Republic of Illinois -reg is over 3.20 - much of it due to taxation without representation.

Now I work in the gas and oil business --supply is good -reserves OK and demand only on the rise slightly- Speculation's effect here started a bit ago when your buds at OPEC said they thought the new ceiling or should we call it the floor for oil should be about 85.00 --the speculators took over and here we are.

Absolutely the declining buck is having an impact - the inflation thing is out there and only being controlled by high and under employment -- the bit about low inflation is claptrap anyway.

The issues with the economy will be here at least ten more years as the standard on living in the ol USA continues to tank from its high in 1974.

Mflo
.

I watch this stuff and don't see speculation as being a major causative effect.

Other than that the only thing I disagree with is the 10 years..2008 was the moment of inflection, and what you see is what you are going to have and or get going forward. The thing that most people don't get is that there is NO GOING BACK to what once was. It is gone, the USA has had its moment in the sun and we flew to high and now...we have to pay the price.


BTW PARF is Politics and Religion....this is about ECONOMICS...so this side of the PPOT is within the parameters...

[Scuba Steve]

Originally Posted by A930Rocket

Mount Pleasant always has the highest gas prices it seems. If you get up to North Charleston, it's cheaper there (or has been).

The BP on Coleman Blvd was cheaper by a few cents. The BP at 17 and 41 is neck and neck with the Texaco/Kanagroo up 41 a bit, as is the BP up 41 by the river. On Clements Ferry, the BP is high but the Kangaroo across the street is about par with others.

On 17 near you, I think the Hess station before I-526 is probably the cheapest.

Do you work for Boeing?

Yep.

That Hess station seems familiar - think it's the one I went to when I topped my car off before leaving it at a friend's place and going to the airport.

The wife is coming back with me in a few days so we can do the househunting thing. I've looked at a lot of houses and neighborhoods on my own and it'll be great to show her some of what I've seen along with a few others that've popped up. We like buying a house to fix up to our own tastes rather than something that someone has already put the work in. I like the Snee Farms area but am not sure there's a lot for sale now that I can do very much with (architecture issues). I also liked some of the neighborhoods closer to the river in West Ashley / inside 526 and it'd be an easy commute but have a feeling that we'd be running to Mt Pleasant a lot to hang out.

[jyl]

Tabs: "I watch this stuff and don't see speculation as being a major causative effect."

Look at the price moves in all sorts of commodities from cotton to sugar to metals, the proliferation of commodity ETFs, the enthusiasm for commodities as an "asset class", and - something you've talked about - the money that has to come out of bonds now that yields are so low, and needs to go somewhere.

Anyway, can you identify major recent changes in the fundamental shortage/surplus balance between supply and demand in oil or other commodities, that would explain the price moves? If not, then the price moves are, by definition, speculative.

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by Scuba Steve

That Hess station seems familiar - think it's the one I went to when I topped my car off before leaving it at a friend's place and going to the airport.

High priced gas just outside the airport is a well known scam. They know you don't have time to fill up elsewhere and that the rental car gas charge is 10 times worse...

A place in San Diego was almost $1 higher per gallon. It was the last gas station before all of the rental returns. It would run $3/gallon, back when $2 gas was outrageous.

[exc911ence]

Originally Posted by pwd72s

What %age of this is taxes? I know Oregon just raised the gas tax...not sure of the amount tho.

I couldn't find the pie-chart that I was hoping for (the ones that they have on every pump here) but Wiki sums it up:

Motor fuel taxes in Canada - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Found this for the 50 states as well:

Gasoline tax information - Ontario Gas Prices

IIRC, you can't pump your own fuel in Oregon... I wonder when they'll add a mandatory gratuity into the price per gallon as a tip for the attendant?

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by exc911ence

I couldn't find the pie-chart that I was hoping for (the ones that they have on every pump here) but Wiki sums it up:

Motor fuel taxes in Canada - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Found this for the 50 states as well:

Gasoline tax information - Ontario Gas Prices

IIRC, you can't pump your own fuel in Oregon... I wonder when they'll add a mandatory gratuity into the price per gallon as a tip for the attendant?

Already exists, at I think the 15 gallon threshold...

[speeder]

Originally Posted by kaisen

BTW Paul, we have a Lincoln Aviator with the same basic 4.6L DOHC 32V motor as your Bullitt. 91oct required, says in the manual and gas door. We've run almost 100K miles on 87 octane (it currently has 161K miles). No issues, no pinging, no hiccups, no problems. But it's not being run at the gymkhana either. YMMV.

This is a big change from the old days, due to modern engine management electronics. I've owned older high-compression vehicles that would ping pretty badly under light acceleration if you ran low-octane fuel. IOW, just taking off from a traffic light.

I had heard in the past that with earlier knock-sensor equipped vehicles, (early 90s Mercedes for example), the ECU would dial back the timing if it detected 87 octane, therefore causing lower MPGs and negating any savings at the pump from the lower octane purchase. Not claiming that this is the same on your Aviator, maybe newer generation electronics are more sophisticated or pinging is less prevalent in more advanced engine designs(?)

I do know that direct injection is/was a huge step forward in engine design, allowing car makers to increase CR, (and efficiency), w/o regard for pre-detonation. I've yet to drive a 2008 or later Porsche, they must be incredible. 400hp or more from a N/A flat-6 3.8 liter and great MPGs.

[Scuba Steve]

Originally Posted by red-beard

High priced gas just outside the airport is a well known scam. They know you don't have time to fill up elsewhere and that the rental car gas charge is 10 times worse...

A place in San Diego was almost $1 higher per gallon. It was the last gas station before all of the rental returns. It would run $3/gallon, back when $2 gas was outrageous.

This gas station - it's easily 15 miles from the airport. I stopped there because it was pretty close to my friend's house. Gotta leave the car somewhere... I don't have a place to live over there yet and Homewood Suites probably wouldn't want me to leave it sitting around for a few weeks.

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by Rot 911

At least that is what I have heard on three different news stations this morning. Oil is up around $91.00 today. That doesn't support $4.00 gas. Refineries shutting down?

$91 a barrel means $2.16 per gallon for crude oil. It costs at least 20 cents per gallon to refine it, that takes it up to $2.36.
You don't get 42 gallons of gas out of a barrel, so that drives up the cost even more. Then you add in about 5 cents for transportation,distribution, and you're over $2.60 a gallon, just to make it and sell it. With no profit.

Taxes around here are about 90 cents per gallon when you add in the sales tax.
That puts gas at $3.50. BTW we pay sales tax on excise tax. Gotta love the double dipping.

Add in a minimum 10% mark-up by the retailer to cover his costs, and it's up to $3.85, still with no profit at all.

So yes $91 a gallon DOES support $4 a gallon retail, at least in So Cal. Refiners are losing money and have been. They are just trying to keep generating cash flow so they can survive until spring when things balance out.
Retailers are relying on snickers bars and soda pop to pay the bills, they ain't making any money on the gas they are pumping.

But crude oil prices and retail gasoline prices are NOT directly related. They affect each other but are not directly tied. The price is driven by the market, supply and demand.
If crude prices are too high and the refiners are losing their proverbial butts on every gallon, they cut production to cut loses. that affects supply and eventually results in a correction, assuming other refiners don't increase production to screw the competition.

it is a very complex system but when broken down, it is based on simple concepts.

[Schumi]

If only there was some new, American, auto company, working to make good, American made automobiles that didn't run on petrol. Hm..


Oh well.

[speeder]

Originally Posted by monoflo

My take is everyone has a bit of the reason the price is up.

Here in the Peoples Republic of Illinois -reg is over 3.20 - much of it due to taxation without representation.

Not disputing the high taxes in Illinois but I once heard that the Chicago area has the highest gas prices in the country because of transportation costs as well. That it's the furthest away from any major refinery. Any truth to that?

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by Schumi

If only there was some new, American, auto company, working to make good, American made automobiles that didn't run on petrol. Hm..


Oh well.

That don't cost three times as much to buy and operate ..................................

[tabs]

Originally Posted by jyl

Tabs: "I watch this stuff and don't see speculation as being a major causative effect."

Look at the price moves in all sorts of commodities from cotton to sugar to metals, the proliferation of commodity ETFs, the enthusiasm for commodities as an "asset class", and - something you've talked about - the money that has to come out of bonds now that yields are so low, and needs to go somewhere.

Anyway, can you identify major recent changes in the fundamental shortage/surplus balance between supply and demand in oil or other commodities, that would explain the price moves? If not, then the price moves are, by definition, speculative.

Logic will get me every time.

Then every investor is speculating that the price will go up.

Given that in any market there is some speculation what is the added cost differentail in oil? $1, $3, $5?

Also what are the factors that make the "Speculators" think that their investment in Oil will will pay off if the demand curve isn't there to support the current price?

Ahh and now we come to it...the underlying reason is a declining dollar...currency.

Now one could say that potential demand due to a better economic outlook is driving the market, but that ain't playin too well in Peoria...at least not at the moment.

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by speeder

Not disputing the high taxes in Illinois but I once heard that the Chicago area has the highest gas prices in the country because of transportation costs as well. That it's the furthest away from any major refinery. Any truth to that?

Long distance distribution costs are small in the big scheme. Over long distances, they pump it through pipelines at a cost of a penny or two a gallon.
It costs more to transport gasoline a few miles by truck than to transport it 200 miles via pipeline.

But, if a town is far from a refinery that means it can be dependent on pipeline availability. If the pipelines are the bottleneck that can in some cases affect supply.

Case in point, there are no refineries near Phoenix but their gas prices are relatively low. All their gas in pumped in, most from southern California or El Paso.

Taxes and gubmint regulation make the price of gas higher in Cal (where we have at least 12 refineries) than in Arizona where they don't have any that I'm aware of.

Iffn anyone is curious, go to this link and check out the spot (non-contracted wholesale) prices in different regions: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm

Then go to this link to see what the average retail prices are, and you can tell how much the retailers are marking up the price (AFTER factoring in taxes).
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_w.htm
just select which region you are interested in.
Note that over 95% of all retail stations are owned or operated by independents, not by oil companies.

Using those charts, wholesale gas in California is averaging $2.46 a gallon.
Retail is $3.33
Taxes are about 70 cents at that price depending on which county you are in. So how much money is being made? Not much.
Unless of course you are talking about the gubmint, they're making a KILLING!

[Icemaster]

Originally Posted by Schumi

If only there was some new, American, auto company, working to make good, American made automobiles that didn't run on petrol. Hm..


Oh well.

I just sold a bunch of their stock when it hit $31 per.

[sammyg2]

A couple years ago when crude was approaching $145 a barrel, OPEC was supposedly producing their quota and claimed they didn't manipulate supply to drive up the price.

But there were several very large, UNIDENTIFIED buyers in the European market who were buying up huge options, billions at a time.
The rumor at the time is that the Saudi gubmint was paying agents to buy back their oil, with their money.
They'd pay themselves a higher price, which drove up the price. Then they'd sit on the oil, taking it out of the market, which drove up the price.

Eventually they dumped it back in a little at a time which caused the step ladder declines in prices that were so predictable you could see them coming a week away.
I even posted about it here IIRC, telling people how they could make a killing shorting the commodities futures and when.
I was doing it myself for a while until my conscience got the best of me and couldn't stomach being part of the problem anymore.

[sammyg2]

Also of note, the US government's second highest revenue source is petroleum products, second only to payroll taxes.

The gumbint makes more from oil and gas and diesel etc than they make from all the business or sales taxes (excluding fuels).

Take away that revenue source and the gubmints die a quick death. Fed, state, local.

BTW Airports make more money from selling fuel to the airplanes than they do from anything else. Hard to imagine that airports are just giant gas stations with convenience stores attached but them aluminium tubes burn lots and lots of fuel. Iffn they land at LAX, they need to buy fuel from LAX.
LAX knows that, and jacks the price of the aviation fuel up big time.
They buy t from us at $2.10 and sell it for a whole bunch more.

[maxnine11]

Why is oil at $91 again? I stopped paying attention about a year ago.

Because global oil consumption has caught back up to the levels of the peak of a few years ago. ( China, India, etc. seeing definite increase in consumption)
Global production has remained close to the same, but the glut of supply built up during the economic slow down has slowly been decreasing.
IMHO, it's global demand/ global supply that is setting the price, not speculation. (speculation was greatly responsible for the $140 peak)

[pwd72s]

Originally Posted by kaisen

If it had a tune that yielded more power on 105 octane (as listed in the manual and on the filler neck), would you buy it daily? How about nitromethane?

The point is that your Bullitt will run just fine on the crap 85 octane they sell on the West coast. It won't like full throttle as well, and it won't run as quickly from the well-tuned 944s, but it will make it A to B indefinitely without hurting the engine.

BTW Paul, we have a Lincoln Aviator with the same basic 4.6L DOHC 32V motor as your Bullitt. 91oct required, says in the manual and gas door. We've run almost 100K miles on 87 octane (it currently has 161K miles). No issues, no pinging, no hiccups, no problems. But it's not being run at the gymkhana either. YMMV.

I know my Bullitt will run just fine on 87 Octane...it says that in the owners manual as well. BUT running 91 octane is good for an extra 10-15 horsepower or so...with the "tune" that came only in the Bullitt models of '08-'09. I don't mind spending the extra for the few ponies more... Considering my low annual miles driven, car fuel costs don't bother me that much. Neither do "well set up 944's"

[pksystems]

Originally Posted by pwd72s

What %age of this is taxes? I know Oregon just raised the gas tax...not sure of the amount tho.

30% + is tax in Canada.