The 'Go/No-Go' Percentage

Schumi · 05-19-2011, 11:22 PM

The following is a hypothetical question that I raise every so often with people. I find it an interesting thought experiment, and how different people respond, especially people you know closely, can be quite interesting.

There is going to be the first manned mission to Mars. For some reason (it doesn't matter how or why) you are to be one of the astronauts to go.

However, the scientists and engineers behind the mission confide in you that there is a calculated probability of mission success.

aka they give you a split percentage of making the round trip vs. being killed.

What is your 'Go/No-Go' percentages for this event? What amount of coin flipping would you be willing to take if given the shot at possibly the greatest achievement of man in the history of mankind?

How people answer this is very entertaining. As are their justifications for picking such percentages. Many say they wouldn't go unless it's 100% return chance. Also, many people want to know if there could be a stipulation- say a 100% chance you land on mars and get to walk around but have no return trip home.

Since it's rude to post such a topic without going first, I've thought this through many times and heres my current answer-

25/75 alive/dead for a full trip. In other terms, 1 in 4 chance of making it back.

And I would risk even more than that if there was a 100% chance that I would at least make it there and walk on the surface.

Depending on the day you ask me, it's been as high as 50/50 and as low as 0- go no matter what- it'd be worth it.

Think away gentlemen.

pwd72s · 05-19-2011, 11:26 PM

Is this what they mean by "jumped the shark"?

Schumi · 05-19-2011, 11:27 PM

This is what OT is for Paul.

Off. Topic.

pwd72s · 05-19-2011, 11:29 PM

Or this....

or this

Geronimo '74 · 11:43 PM

For Paul (if you keep staring, you can see yourself in it, true story)

For Mike,

I'd go, if I could be sure enough that I would make it back.
let's say 80% to make it back alive, I'd go.

(what would be the percentage of making it back alive on a current day moonmission? must be higher than 80% no?)

Schumi · 05-19-2011, 11:35 PM

*sigh*.

Heel n Toe · 05-19-2011, 11:36 PM

I think I would go if there was 90% chance of a safe return trip.

If there is a chance the mission could be marooned, is there a possibility of having enough supplies to last until a rescue mission could be mounted? Could the World Series be picked up by Houston and sent there?

Would there be beer?

Okay, I know there wouldn't be beer.

Paul, seek professional help.

Something is wrong with you, dude. Seriously.

Either that, or you have morphed into a complete azzhole.

genrex · 05-19-2011, 11:40 PM

We should send someone who can best represent us... Paul, for instance.

slodave · slodave's Garage

I think part of the decision would have to do with family. Single/married/children. More likely to go if single/no kids.

sc_rufctr · 11:46 PM

I would go with a 99% chance of getting there and I'd be OK with staying until my death.
Two year trip would be awful. What would you do in almost zero G for two years?

Would I stay by choice? Depends on the facilities and situation. For instance if I had a good woman by my side and decent living conditions then yes.
If I had to live in a small alloy tube with other smelly travelers then no.

----------------------------------------

Curious... Does anybody know what percentages the first men on the Moon were playing with?

porsche4life · porsche4life's Garage

My folks wouldn't be thrilled with me, but with few other ties here, I think id go at 50/50 maybe even 40/60.

Let's face it, I do riskier things....

Paul_Heery · Paul_Heery's Garage

I would go if it could be guaranteed that none of the other astronauts on the trip would ever speak about billiards or Mustangs.

1990C4S · 05-20-2011, 03:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul_Heery

I would go if it could be guaranteed that none of the other astronauts on the trip would ever speak about billiards or Mustangs.

That, my friends, is funny.

VINMAN · 05-20-2011, 04:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul_Heery

I would go if it could be guaranteed that none of the other astronauts on the trip would ever speak about billiards or Mustangs.

LMAO

I would say 1 in 4. Ive always engaged in stuff that is fairly risky to begin with.

Hey after all, I drive in NYC everyday. Cant get anymore dangerous then that...

GH85Carrera · GH85Carrera's Garage

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul_Heery

I would go if it could be guaranteed that none of the other astronauts on the trip would ever speak about billiards or Mustangs.

That is funny.

Al lot of the choice would be dependent on the conditions of the travel. If it is a ship like in 2001 A Space Odyssey where I can move around and exercise and do something I would go 75/25 if the odds are good on making it to Mars and walking around.

In a little can like the current space station reverse those numbers.

The sad thing is a Mars trip will likely not happen for many more decades.

dad911 · 05-20-2011, 05:01 AM

I wouldn't go. Even at 100% success. No desire, wouldn't want to waste the time, don't crave fame, not on my 'bucket list'

IMO the real heroes, of (as you put it) the "greatest achievement of man in the history of mankind" are the scientists & engineers. I rather be in that group.

Steve Viegas · 05-20-2011, 07:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dad911

I wouldn't go. Even at 100% success. No desire, wouldn't want to waste the time, don't crave fame, not on my 'bucket list'

IMO the real heroes, of (as you put it) the "greatest achievement of man in the history of mankind" are the scientists & engineers. I rather be in that group.

Actually, the astronauts are scientists and engineers; generally the top of their class in both physical and mental state. Just saying, you could do both.

Since it would be rude to comment here without giving my percentages, I would say the risk of dying would have to be low. Not only do I have family that depends on me (although less and less each day), I do enjoy myself and I am not sure what I would do on the trip. Exploring the unknown sounds interesting, until it isn't. So, if it meant leaving my family, then 0% chance of going. If family went, then risk would have to be about the same as participating in a highly physical sport (read still very low).

RPKESQ · 05-20-2011, 07:46 AM

I would take any chance to attempt to travel to Mars. I'm going to die anyway. So why not?

Family and friends know me so they would not be surprised. I have arranged support both monetary and personal support for my family so I am not worried.

nota · 05-20-2011, 07:58 AM

would snooker and camaro's be a deal breaker

Seahawk · 05-20-2011, 07:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RPKESQ

I would take any chance to attempt to travel to Mars. I'm going to die anyway. So why not?

Family and friends know me so they would not be surprised. I have arranged support both monetary and personal support for my family so I am not worried.

No offense Schumi, but this is why the question of percentages is flawed just a bit: Where RPK has the desire to light out for the red planet, I have none. While I completely respect his decision, it influences his risk/reward equation. That, plus the fact that he has the foresight to take care of the risk downsides.

I'd need 90/10...and that's at gunpoint.

But, ask me to go get a brother in arms from a dust up...RPK and I are on the same page. Any chance is a good chance.