777 down

[ossiblue]

Originally Posted by jyl

Nothing found at location shown in Chinese satellite images

Vietnam search fruitless at site where China satellite detected suspected plane debris: Witness

A search by two Vietnamese aircraft responding to information provided by a Chinese satellite has failed to locate objects suspected of being wreckage from a missing Malaysian airliner, a Reuters journalist on board a search plane said on Thursday.

Aircraft repeatedly circled the area over the South China Sea but were unable to detect any objects, said the journalist, who flew aboard a Antonov 26 cargo plane for three hours.

Vietnamese and Malaysian planes were scanning waters where a Chinese government agency website said a satellite had photographed three "suspicious floating objects" on Sunday.

Though I doubted the debris in the satellite photo was from the plane, it doesn't surprise me it hasn't been sighted yet. Remember, the photo was taken Sunday (local time) but was release five days later. That's plenty of time for the objects to sink. The next step would be to use underwater technology to try and find such large objects in the area last recorded by the imagery.

[flipper35]

Originally Posted by jyl

photographed three "suspicious floating objects" on Sunday.
[/I]

Ships maybe?

[FLYGEEZER]

The triple seven is on the ground somewhere. All these agency's keep changing the story to divert the minions..........or, space ailens have them.

[GH85Carrera]

Originally Posted by FLYGEEZER

The triple seven is on the ground somewhere. All these agency's keep changing the story to divert the minions..........or, space ailens have them.

Of course it is on the ground. It can't stay in the air for 6 days.
It is in lots of peices on the ground at the bottom of the ocean.

[FLYGEEZER]

I think I was saying, on the ground ,not in the ground.

[ossiblue]

In every missing plane case, every possibility is on the table until evidence is produced to eliminate a possibility as a cause. This case is no different. However, what is different about this case is that the only solid, verifiable data was found within hours of the disappearance (the loss of the transponder signal at 1:22 am) and no additional verifiable data has appeared since. Nothing, aside from the last voice message, has appeared. That is something I can't remember ever happening in a commercial airliner loss. Even the Air France crash produced data, via telemetry, that aided in locating the crash site and debris was found.

One crucial piece of information, the military radar signal placing the plane over the Straits of Malacca, is crucial. It needs to be verified or debunked. It is the game changer. Logic, economy of hypothesis, Occam's razor, or whatever you want to call it, dictates the plane either went down in the area of the signal loss or continued on for an unknown time along the flight path. Without the ability to eliminate possibilities through verifiable data, the entire litany of possibilities remain, however, and the military radar story expands those possibilities to any direction away from the last contact in a radius limited only by the flying time allowed by the fuel supply.

I'm afraid that if there is no debris found and the radar signals cannot be debunked, this has the markings of another Amelia Earhart situation, as someone has already mentioned. Very hard to believe it could happen again in the "modern" aviation age, but here we are. Even a small bit of debris found weeks or months from now will add something concrete and verifiable to this case but until then, we are no closer to a real answer to "where" or "why" than we were at 1:22 am on the date of the disappearance.

[Seahawk]

This thread has been very informative: It beats trying to follow the news. Great exchange. I especially liked OldE's explanation of radar/transponders, I'm going to steal that.

My only add is that searching for anything at sea is a very difficult, imprecise exercise unless the area of probability is known soon. Open ocean searches are the definition of a haystack without a needle.

[ossiblue]

Originally Posted by Seahawk

This thread has been very informative: It beats trying to follow the news. Great exchange. I especially liked OldE's explanation of radar/transponders, I'm going to steal that.

My only add is that searching for anything at sea is a very difficult, imprecise exercise unless the area of probability is known soon. Open ocean searches are the definition of a haystack without a needle.

^^Yes indeed^^

When have we ever witnessed the area of probability expand to such a degree rather than narrow? Perhaps pure luck will play a part soon and the puzzle pieces will begin to fall into place. We can only hope.

[Miguel Antonett]

Another BERMUDA TRIANGLE????

[Aragorn]

Originally Posted by Seahawk

This thread has been very informative: It beats trying to follow the news. Great exchange. I especially liked OldE's explanation of radar/transponders, I'm going to steal that.

My only add is that searching for anything at sea is a very difficult, imprecise exercise unless the area of probability is known soon. Open ocean searches are the definition of a haystack without a needle.

Kind of reminds me of this accident:

MV Derbyshire - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[BRPORSCHE]

This thread had been great.

Paul,
Update your sig! Also, your points for the ME were fantastic. Currently enjoying a cohiba by the pool in Muscat. Thank you for the tips. Flying on a 777 on Monday. Let's hope that they keep the transponder on. ;-)

[GH85Carrera]

Originally Posted by FLYGEEZER

I think I was saying, on the ground ,not in the ground.

Yea, I know. I just could not resist a bit of smart ass on my part. Sorry.

[onewhippedpuppy]

Originally Posted by Seahawk

This thread has been very informative: It beats trying to follow the news. Great exchange. I especially liked OldE's explanation of radar/transponders, I'm going to steal that.

My only add is that searching for anything at sea is a very difficult, imprecise exercise unless the area of probability is known soon. Open ocean searches are the definition of a haystack without a needle.

I think we may be better informed than the news station talking heads, and we are definitely more intelligent.

Ossisblue hit a key point - the total absence of verifiable data in this case is amazing. Hard to believe that in 2014 we are utilizing essentially the same methods to search for a downed aircraft that were used in WW2.

[Seahawk]

Originally Posted by BRPORSCHE

...your points for the ME were fantastic

We will all need a detailed trip report

Glad I could help. The ME can be vastly entertaining if you are willing. Best.

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy

...the total absence of verifiable data in this case is amazing. Hard to believe that in 2014 we are utilizing essentially the same methods to search for a downed aircraft that were used in WW2.

As mentioned before, there are parts of the world where you are essentially on your own aviation-wise. Most people forget that radar is, for the most part, line of sight.

My guess is that there will be some fixes (expendables from the aircraft, redesign of transponders, more than one black box, one of which can float, etc.) based on this incident.

[intakexhaust]

Agree on this thread. Great wealth of thinkers sharing good insight.

Paul - Good 'point' about radar.

Not up on all this, but for sonar does detection of an object require it to be moving? Then add the complication of under water acoustic trash. Its got to be an enormous challenge.

[ossiblue]

Here's my thoughts, given the little we really know and the amount of time that has passed.

I'm doubting a hijacking or pilot suicide because even though a human could turn off the transponder, I doubt they could disable the telemetry sent by the engines. Both these systems ended transmission at the same time.

I'm beginning to lean toward a westward change in course as indicated by military radar because the primary area has been saturated with search vessels for six days, and the Malaysian military explanations of the radar information seems logical. Still, I would feel better if it could be confirmed the blip was flight 370.

I'm also leaning toward a catastrophe in the cockpit, such as a rapidly spreading electrical fire--something that has happened to a lesser degree on three previous 777 planes. This could account for the loss of transponder voice communications and telemetry. It could allow the pilots to still fly the plane and attempt to return to Kuala Lumpur, making a west/south turn. What happened next, who knows? Set auto pilot due smoke in cockpit and plane flew on until fuel ran out? Tried to land by visuals and over shot Malaysia?

Obviously, another speculation but in spite of little if any brand new information, the slow addition of small factioids has me leaning in a new direction. I think sooner or later, bits of debris will be found--maybe washed up on a coastal beach--west of Malasia, quite possible in the Indian Ocean.

[Aragorn]

This has been one of the most concise stories I have read about this from a news site on the web so far:

BBC News - Malaysia Airlines: What we know about flight MH370

[URY914]

It's sitting on Diego Garcia.

[Head416]

I think they need to bring Clive Cussler in on this, and I'm only partially joking. His teams have found wrecks that had been searched for without success for decades.

[Baz]

Are there any US subs in the area using listening devices?

Seems like that would be useful.