Patricia

[Porsche-O-Phile]

This one's going to be really bad. I feel for the people who will be affected by it - my understanding is that that's a fairly poor area to start with (other than Puerto Vallarta, which is going to be significantly damaged or destroyed). This thing is going to wipe a lot of that region right off the map later today.

I've always been fascinated by these storms, how they form, how they develop, etc. and this one is absolutely amazing to study (it intensified from a Tropical Storm to a Cat. 5 in under 24 hours - utterly explosive development) but when one considers that it's about to affect real human beings in a profound way it's quite humbling and makes me realize how insignificant we all are in the grand scheme.

Best of luck to anyone near there. Please be safe. Leave if you can.

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Patricia strengthens into 'potentially catastrophic' Category 5 hurricane, threatens Mexico's Pacific coast | Fox News

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Patricia strengthens into 'potentially catastrophic' Category 5 hurricane, threatens Mexico's Pacific coast

Published October 24, 2015FoxNews.com

Forecasters said Friday that Hurricane Patricia had grown into the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Western hemisphere hours before it was forecast to make landfall on Mexico's Pacific coast.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami reported that the Category 5 storm's maximum sustained winds had grown to nearly 200 miles per hour (mph), making it the strongest storm on record in the eastern Pacific. The storm was located about 160 miles south-southwest of the port of Manzanillo, Mexico, and was moving north-northwest at 10 mph. On its current track, the storm was projected to to come onshore between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta sometime Friday afternoon or evening.

Some weakening was forecast before then, but the Hurricane Center said the storm would still be "extremely dangerous" when it makes landfall. Forecasters warned that preparations should be rushed to completion, saying the storm could cause coastal flooding, destructive waves and flash floods.

The storm's rapid growth left authorities in Mexico scrambling to make people safe. Local officials declared a state of emergency in dozens of municipalities in Colima, Nayarit and Jalisco states that contain the bustling port of Manzanillo and the posh resort of Puerto Vallarta. The governor of Colima ordered schools closed on Friday.

At a Wal-Mart in Manzanillo, shoppers filled carts with non-perishables as a steady rain fell outside.

Veronica Cabrera, shopping with her young son, said Manzanillo tends to flood with many small streams overflowing their banks. She said she had taped her windows at home to prevent them from shattering.

Alejandra Rodriguez, shopping with her brother and mother, was buying 10 liters of milk, a large jug of water and items like tuna and canned ham that do not require refrigeration or cooking. The family already blocked the bottoms of the doors at their home to keep water from entering.

Manzanillo's "main street really floods and cuts access to a lot of other streets. It ends up like an island," Rodriguez said.

In Puerto Vallarta, restaurants and stores taped or boarded-up windows, and residents raced to stores for last-minute purchases ahead of the storm.

Hurricane Center meteorologist Dennis Feltgen said Patricia also poses problems for Texas. Forecast models indicate that after the storm breaks up over land, remnants of its tropical moisture will likely combine with and contribute to heavy rainfall that is already soaking Texas independently of the hurricane, he said.

"It's only going to make a bad situation worse," he said.

In Colima, authorities handed out sandbags to help residents protect their homes from flooding.

A hurricane warning was in effect for the Mexican coast from San Blas to Punta San Telmo, a stretch that includes Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. A broader area was under hurricane watch, tropical storm warning or tropical storm watch.

The Hurricane Center said Patricia was expected to bring rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of up to 20 inches in some locations. Tropical storm conditions were expected to reach land late Thursday or early Friday, complicating any remaining preparation work at that point.

"We are calm," said Gabriel Lopez, a worker at Las Hadas Hotel in Manzanillo. "We don't know what direction (the storm) will take, but apparently it's headed this way. ... If there is an emergency we will take care of the people. There are rooms that are not exposed to wind or glass."

[ckelly78z]

Wow, glad i'm not vacationing in the area. Prayers to all in it's path, I don't see how a structure could stand against 200 MPH winds, so the potential for damage is incredble.

[GH85Carrera]

It is really beyond comprehension how much power of destruction a storm like that brings. Anyone that lives on the coast anywhere near the equator is at risk of a similar storm. It is part of the price they pay for living there.

It looks like Patricia is now the strongest hurricane on record.

Look what a storm that did not even rate hurricane status did to New Jersey.

It will be bad but it did not sneak up on anyone. They have plenty of time to get to higher ground and away from the coast.

[URY914]

Did this pop up out of nowhere?

[flatbutt]

I can't even imagine winds at 200 mph. I wonder if el nino has anything to do with it?

[ted]

Originally Posted by flatbutt

I can't even imagine winds at 200 mph. I wonder if el nino has anything to do with it?

[sammyg2]

This morning they said it was the strongest hurricane ever recorded.

But that on channel 5, AKA the "grain of salt" news.

[TheMentat]

Originally Posted by sammyg2

This morning they said it was the strongest hurricane ever recorded.

But that on channel 5, AKA the "grain of salt" news.

I heard that as well... I got the impression that by using "hurricane", they are excluding Eastern hemisphere storms, which have been bigger.

Why is the OP's article dated for tomorrow? Is he from the future?

[Craig T]

I wish the best for all those in it's path. I don't wish that on anybody. With that said…To us surfers in Ventura Co it means WAVES WAVES WAVES….REALLY BIG WAVES!

[onewhippedpuppy]

STRONGEST STORM EVER!!!!!*

*Strongest hurricane named Patricia occuring on 10/23/15.




My prayers are with those in the path, despite the media fear mongering it sounds like a serious storm. Hopefully people heed the warnings.

[Scott Douglas]

Craig T - You're more likely to see a storm surge from Olaf than Patricia.

Intellicast - Hurricane Patricia Current Track in United States

Patricia is heading inland and waves will be blocked by Baja.
Olaf on the other hand is headed east...

[Laneco]

Currently sustained 200mph winds and 30 foot storm surge predicted when it hits landfall later today/this evening. Even if the winds drop down, the storm surge will be huge. Manzanillo will be hit very hard. They've evacuated and this is a smaller town, not like Puerto Vallarta to the north.

If you have friends or relatives there, make sure they LEAVE. What the storm surge doesn't take out, the rain gathering in the mountains and filling the rivers to flood will...

This storm is NOT a joke. One of my clients who provides disaster relief is already sending people and supplies...

angela

[LakeCleElum]

...

[enzo1]

[intakexhaust]

Regardless of the media hype, if its already noted having 200mph sustained winds that's mighty wicked. Wishing the best for those in the path of it.

Though in a perverse way, I find the power and destructive nature fascinating. No brains nor mechanical manmade device, it just does its thing, reshapes and wipes out anything it wants. It just claims pieces of a planet that no war mongering country can. Awesome power.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Pacific_hurricanes

[onewhippedpuppy]

Originally Posted by intakexhaust

Regardless of the media hype, if its already noted having 200mph sustained winds that's mighty wicked. Wishing the best for those in the path of it.

Though in a perverse way, I find the power and destructive nature fascinating. No brains nor mechanical manmade device, it just does its thing, reshapes and wipes out anything it wants. It just claims pieces of a planet that no war mongering country can. Awesome power.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Pacific_hurricanes

I have the same morbid fascination with weather. Despite our advancement as a species, we are still powerless against it.

[ltusler]

Powerless against it, but are blamed by some for creating it.

[red-beard]

From Stratfor

Mexico Braces for Hurricane Patricia

Summary

Hurricane Patricia poses a threat to trade, tourism and security on Mexico's west coast. Landfall is imminent for the hurricane, a Category 5 storm, which will hit the west coast of Mexico's Jalisco state and then head northward. Evacuations are underway along the coast, and Mexican authorities have declared a state of emergency for 56 municipalities in the storm's path in Colima, Nayarit and Jalisco states. The storm not only threatens life and property in its path, it also bears major economic consequences for Mexico and tangentially for the United States.

Analysis

Hurricane Patricia is the strongest storm recorded by the National Hurricane Center, with maximum sustained winds of 200 mph and a minimum central pressure of 880 millibars, the lowest ever recorded in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins.

According to academic studies of thousands of tropical cyclones, Hurricane Patricia has the potential to cause enough damage to reduce Mexico's projected GDP per capita by as much as 15 percent during the next several decades. Other models predict slightly less of an impact, with a decrease from the projected per capita income of more than 7 percent. Besides the immediate effects on trade and tourism, rebuilding will take time and divert investment from other areas.

However, storm strength is not the only factor to consider; where the storm hits and how fast it dissipates could affect its destructiveness. For example, Hurricane Katrina was not the most intense hurricane to make landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast, but it was the most costly. Hurricane Patricia, on the other hand, is expected to encounter very mountainous terrain after landfall, which could weaken it more quickly.

The population center of Guadalajara and the port of Manzanillo will be affected by the storm. If the storm remains on its current path, it will not hit Manzanillo directly, but given the size of the storm the port may still be impacted. Any prolonged closure or reduction in operations there would seriously affect the supply chain not only for Mexico but also parts of the United States. Manzanillo connects directly to the United States via rail and accounts for nearly 50 percent of containerized traffic entering Mexico. It is also a vital port for imports from Asia. If Manzanillo is forced to close or reduce operations, the port of Lazaro Cardenas to the southwest could become more congested, or both could lose traffic to U.S. ports.

Manzanillo is more than a major intermodal trade hub — several industries have sizeable facilities at the port and in the general path of the storm. The complex itself has a number of warehouses, food canning and seafood operations. Major building materials company CEMEX has cement production plants in the region. Holcim Mexico, another cement manufacturer, also has large operations in Colima state near the port. Mexico's largest iron mine, Pena Colorada, is located nearby and has processing facilities at the port. Flooding in the area could halt production at the open pit iron mine.

Most of Mexico's auto manufacturing plants are inland, but Honda has a production facility in Jalisco state. Beyond the possibility of damage at the Honda plant, the entire auto manufacturing industry in Mexico would be vulnerable to disruptions in the supply of material traveling through the Manzanillo port.

Puerto Vallarta is the main tourist destination in the storm's path. When Hurricane Kenna hit near Puerto Vallarta in 2002, the storm surge caused $100 million in damages to resorts and surrounding towns. Hurricane Patricia is certain to damage facilities in Puerto Vallarta and lead to many canceled vacations, putting a dent in Mexico's tourism industry.

Mexico's security forces are already stretched thin. Authorities in the states of Guerrero, Michoacan and Oaxaca already have their hands full with security problems, and adding a major natural disaster will not help. But whatever the consequences, Mexico has already deployed troops to the area in preparation for the storm.

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy

STRONGEST STORM EVER!!!!!*

*Strongest hurricane named Patricia occuring on 10/23/15.

FYI, they have recorded the lowest pressure (880 mB) for any Western Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone, EVER. This one IS BAD. Record worldwide is 870 mB from Typhoon TIP in 1979.

[gacook]

If memory serves me, didn't Puerto Vallarta just get hammered by a nasty hurricane a couple years ago? I know this is one hell of a storm, but they'll recover. As much as some people up here love to hate the Mexicans, they are a resilient people. I love that area; hope it's not damaged too much.